Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Changes, page 58 of 60

Everything we published, changed, or held back, newest first.

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Changes 11,401 to 11,600 of 11,844, newest first. Page 58 of 60.

  2. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    LLMs are unlikely ever to provide the substrate needed for working AI agents.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  3. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    ChatGPT agent is unlikely to produce wildly different results on Penrose's account-balance benchmark.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  4. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    To his knowledge, none of the big companies' AI agents are reliable, except maybe in very narrow use cases.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  5. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AI coding agents seem to be incurring large technical debt by writing lots of hard-to-debug copypasta code.

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  7. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Current AI agents are grossly vulnerable to cyberattacks because of their superficial understanding of their tasks.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  8. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    An important, publicly visible system that can be beaten in .001% of the times it is attacked is a mess.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  9. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The sentiment that AI agents' reality doesn't match the hype has grown from March to August 2025.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  10. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Hallucinations frequently occur in AI agents.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  12. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    LLMs and current agents are driven by mimicry rather than deep understanding.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  13. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AI agents will not go away and will eventually be among the biggest time-savers humanity has known.

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  14. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Mistakes and errors have greatly limited the utility of agents like ChatGPT agent.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  15. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Current AI systems do not understand what they are doing and have no concept of actions like deleting a database.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  16. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    All the big AI companies have introduced AI agents as of August 2025.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  17. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    LLMs are a detour, and the field's patience for them will likely run out.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  18. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    What AGI development is missing is new ideas and large-scale databases of machine-interpretable knowledge.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  19. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    We do not yet have AI as flexible and reliable as AGI.

    The two reviewers reached different verdicts.

  20. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?

    The two reviewers read the claim differently.

  21. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Current AI should not depend on random details of training corpora that scientists cannot inspect; this is a bad idea.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  24. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The neurosymbolic AI community is growing quickly, with conferences going from dozens to thousands of attendees.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  26. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Even if a new chip type is required for AGI, that could take about thirty years rather than a hundred.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  28. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Bias is likely to be a huge issue with large language models like ChatGPT.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  29. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  31. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Minor abuses of ChatGPT have already been seen, and plagiarism, for example, will never be the same.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  33. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    LLMs are certainly not reliable in the way general intelligences like the Star Trek computer would be.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  34. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    2023 will see the first death attributable to large language models.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  35. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  36. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    Integrating AI components into a whole is a huge unsolved problem.

    A piece of evidence came from the wrong dates.

  37. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  39. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    ChatGPT is a dress rehearsal for more potent AI, and Marcus would not say society has gone through it with flying colors.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  40. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  41. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  42. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    Humanity will eventually reach AGI, quite possibly before the end of the 21st century.

    The claim is hedged, so it isn’t scored.

  43. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  45. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    ChatGPT will lead to more circles of fake websites created to sell advertising.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  46. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  47. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    There is unlikely to be a single magic singularity moment for AGI.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  48. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Achieving AGI will require integrating deep learning with explicit knowledge and explicit cognitive models.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  49. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Large language models are not remotely close to AGI; they lack semantics, reasoning, common sense and theory of mind.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  50. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    AGI is unlikely to be exactly humanlike; adaptivity is key and probably achievable by multiple means.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  52. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    ChatGPT is in many ways a far inferior intelligence and cannot be trusted.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  53. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    AI development should include many voices beyond technologists.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  54. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The flexible, general intelligence that defines AGI does not require sentience.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  55. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not happen in your lifetime. Or will it?

    The final check failed: a cited source didn’t say what the write-up said, and our summary didn’t match their words.

  56. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Marcus thinks the field is wasting funding and bright young minds on an approach that probably is not on the right path.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  57. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AI physical reasoning will improve before psychological reasoning, and AGI will not arrive on a single identifiable day.

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  58. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Within 5 years, a substantial fraction of AI effort will look beyond the current LLM-focused approaches.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  59. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    AI systems will gradually become more reliable and more general.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  60. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Troll farms may start using ChatGPT to create misinformation at unprecedented scale.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  61. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    LLMs often use words without deeply understanding what they mean.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  62. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    No serious person thinks that AGI (artificial general intelligence) has been reached yet.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  63. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Every claim he has seen that AGI has already been reached depends on lowering the definition of AGI.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  64. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Broad but shallow AI can never be guaranteed to be safe, human-compatible, or to do what we ask.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  66. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Because LLMs remain unpredictable, humans should stay in the loop in most cases.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  67. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Marcus proposes that LLMs should be called 'broad, shallow intelligence'.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  69. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    AI's unreliability will be reliably solved only once systems reason over concepts with deep understanding.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  70. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Relying on shallow, unreliable AI could cause huge problems.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  71. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI versus “broad, shallow intelligence”

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  72. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Humanity should make it a major research priority to move beyond broad, shallow AI toward safer, more reliable AI.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  75. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Anyone claiming AGI has been achieved is either confused or hyping something.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  76. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    AI systems should solve problems by reasoning over concepts, not by surface analogy to text scraped from the internet.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  77. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    LLMs do not meet his AGI definition: they are unreliable and cannot reliably generalize to novel circumstances.

    A reviewer didn’t accept one of the pieces of evidence.

  78. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    It is quite possible that no model worthy of the GPT-5 name will appear in 2025.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  79. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI isn’t coming in 2025, and GPT-5 probably isn’t either.

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  80. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Musk's promise of 500,000 humanoid robots in three years seems very unlikely to be fulfilled.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  81. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    GPT-5 may well not be released in 2025, owing to data bottlenecks and inherent limits of LLMs.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  82. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The media should hold those who make unrealistic AI promises to account.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  85. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI will not be achieved in 2025.

    The two reviewers reached different verdicts.

  87. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    OpenAI is struggling to build a model worthy of the GPT-5 name.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  88. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    As of January 2025, GPT-5 has not been released despite nearly two years of claims of exponential progress.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  89. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    The data points in Aschenbrenner's AGI projection graph are imaginary rather than real measurements.

    A reviewer didn’t accept one of the pieces of evidence.

  90. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    It is imperative that we do better at reining in Silicon Valley than we have so far.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  91. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    AGI by 2027?

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  94. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    GPT-4 is not equivalent in capability to a smart high schooler.

    A reviewer didn’t accept one of the pieces of evidence.

  95. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The double Y-axis on Aschenbrenner's graph makes no sense and presupposes its own conclusion.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  96. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    As far as Marcus knows, GPT-4 on its own does not produce original work such as science-fair ideas or original computer systems.

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  98. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    We are woefully underprepared for AGI, whenever it comes, as Eliezer Yudkowsky has rightly argued for years.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  99. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    We should be worried about AGI preparedness regardless of how long until AGI arrives.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  100. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    An MIT study and six or seven later studies have shown that generative AI has not delivered real ROI for most businesses.

    One AI thought this could be checked, so it needs a full check first.

  101. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    So far, AI agents appear to have lots of hype but little return on investment, as with generative AI generally.

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  104. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    Accenture's large bet on AI does not appear to have paid off.

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  105. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Claude Code will increase coders' productivity, unless technical debt cancels out the gains.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  106. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Overall, generative AI has not been delivering large gains, as many studies (MIT, McKinsey, Bain) show.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  107. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    Claude Code is a special-purpose neurosymbolic system, not a generic chatbot.

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  109. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Tokenmaxxing (maximizing AI token use) is in decline.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  110. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    Absolutely amazing ant video augurs intellectual mayhem

    The two reviewers read the claim differently.

  111. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    YouTube is likely to be ruined as a major educational resource almost overnight by AI-generated fake videos.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  112. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    More people besides the one already fooled will be fooled by fake Sora-generated videos.

    The final check failed: the write-up said more than the evidence showed.

  113. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Society faces turbulent times from AI-generated video.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  114. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    A Sora-generated ant video got the ants' anatomy wrong: it did not show the six legs real ants have.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  115. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    Soon, scammers will use Sora or open-source counterparts to make photorealistic fake videos just to sell ads.

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  116. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Open-source counterparts to Sora will emerge.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  121. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Marcus is pretty skeptical about OpenAI's reported Q* breakthrough.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  122. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    At least so far, OpenAI's Q* is not among the problems Marcus is worried about.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  124. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Marcus does not think Bing is already powered by OpenAI's alleged Q* breakthrough.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  125. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    It is possible that OpenAI has a breakthrough that fundamentally changes the world.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  126. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    It is not realistic that OpenAI's Q* technique has already entirely changed the world within a few months.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  128. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    True level 5 driverless cars are probably still many breakthroughs away.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  129. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Claimed AI breakthroughs rarely prove general enough to live up to initial expectations, often working only in some contexts.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  131. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The picture Shumer presents isn't realistic, however much people might wish it were true.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  132. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    Recent AI coding systems have changed: you can let them run more on their own than before.

    The final check failed: the write-up said more than the evidence showed.

  133. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    People should not have taken Shumer's viral post about AI seriously.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  134. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    LLMs write code very fast, but some coders report burnout and only modest gains compared with that burnout.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  135. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    About that Matt Shumer post that has nearly 50 million views

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  136. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    Shumer offers no data showing that the latest coding systems can write whole complex apps without errors.

    The two reviewers reached different verdicts.

  138. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    LLMs are writing more code, but it is unclear whether that code is secure or trustworthy.

    The final check failed: the write-up said more than the evidence showed.

  139. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The security of AI-generated code is seriously in doubt.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  140. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Building ever larger LLMs has never succeeded in reaching AGI.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  142. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  144. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The AI investment-driven economy looks incredibly fragile.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  145. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Trillion-dollar investments in ever larger experiments aimed at AGI may be delusional.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  146. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    Larger LLMs give measurable but apparently diminishing improvements.

    A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.

  147. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    No LLM scaling experiment has solved the core problems of hallucination, generalization, planning and reasoning.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  148. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    If LLMs have the limits Marcus and Sutskever claim, Big Tech can reach $2T in AI revenue by 2030 only by inventing new ideas.

    The final check failed: a cited source didn’t say what the write-up said.

  150. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The AI boom just might end up taking down the economy.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  151. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The AI industry may have wasted a trillion dollars and several years rediscovering what cognitive science already knew.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  152. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Venture capitalists may continue to support LLM mania, at least for a while.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  153. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    If the fallout spreads wider, the cost of the LLM bet could be much more than a trillion dollars.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  154. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    In the worst case, the impact of a deflated AI bubble could be immense.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  155. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  158. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    A trillion dollars or more of LLM investment might be lost, with considerable economic and other collateral damage to society.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  159. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    LLMs have undermined college education, given as an example of collateral damage to society.

    The two reviewers reached different verdicts.

  160. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    A trillion dollars is a terrible thing to waste

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  162. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    A temporary pause on training extra large language models

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  163. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    No details of GPT-4's architecture or training set have been published.

    A reviewer didn’t accept one of the pieces of evidence.

  164. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    AI development should proceed with caution until the risks and benefits are better understood.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  165. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    GPT has a truthiness problem that is not deliberate but arises because it doesn't know any better.

    A reviewer didn’t accept one of the pieces of evidence.

  166. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    GPT cannot be trusted.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  167. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    GPT produces many falsehoods, but they are not really lies because GPT has no intent to deceive.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  172. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    If OpenAI fails, Google could readily take its place, so no government bailout would be required.

    The two reviewers reached different verdicts.

  174. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    “A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule

    The two reviewers read the claim differently.

  175. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    AI may well come to write most code.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  176. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    “A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule

    The final check failed: the write-up said more than the evidence showed.

  177. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    “A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule

    The final check failed: the write-up said more than the evidence showed.

  179. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    The US now has essentially zero AI regulation.

    The two reviewers reached different verdicts.

  180. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    A sad day for America

    One of the AIs read the claim differently from our summary.

  181. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The US should adopt AI regulation between over- and under-regulation that fosters innovation while protecting citizens.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  182. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    A sad day for America

    The two reviewers read the claim differently.

  183. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    President Trump has trampled over states' rights and left US citizens in the lurch.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  186. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Marcus's hunch is that the AI preemption executive order will badly backfire politically on Trump, or at least on J.D. Vance.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  187. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    The new AI scaling law shell game

    The final check of the write-up failed.

  188. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Scaling alone has limited ability to advance AI.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  189. Held backBy usGary Marcus

    The new scaling laws, like the original, are empirical generalizations rather than physical laws.

    A reviewer didn’t accept one of the pieces of evidence.

  190. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The new scaling laws (post-training and inference-time) will eventually stop holding.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  191. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    People should be financially wary of the new claims about multiple AI scaling laws.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  192. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    OpenAI's own o1 research shows that scaling test-time compute helps on some problems but not others.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  194. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    The AI field must move beyond scaling and pursue genuinely new ideas.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  195. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Making LLMs, which are inherently blind to factuality, run longer rather than better is a futile way to rescue them.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  197. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    Scaling performance by training models longer is no longer really holding.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  198. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    In some cases o1 does not perform better than GPT-4.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  199. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    As of November 2024, a major retreat from scaling claims in the AI field has already begun.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.

  200. PublishedBy usGary Marcus

    GPT-4 was better than GPT-3 in almost every way, whereas o1 is a far less uniform improvement.

    Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.