“In short order, with Sora or some opensource counterparts that will emerge, scammers will start to make photorealistic fake videos simply to sell ads.”
Our reading:
Soon, scammers will use Sora or open-source counterparts to make photorealistic fake videos just to sell ads.
Assessment: Unresolved
What happened
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Unresolved
We checked, and the evidence so far doesn’t settle it.
Judged on a plain reading. They named no measure, so we used the reading a typical informed reader would take. It is spelled out under “How we judged it”.
Evidence up to . Checked .
Why
WIRED's March 12, 2024 report describes tutorials promoting AI-generated children's animations as a way to earn money [e1]. It does not document deceptive, photorealistic footage made with Sora or an open-source counterpart [e1]. OpenAI announced Sora Turbo's release on December 9, 2024, without documenting the predicted misuse [e2]. A December 11, 2025 article describes fake deportation videos posted after Sora's September 30, 2025 update and discusses creator-payment incentives [e3]. It does not verify the generation tool and advertising income for an individual video or establish onset soon after February 2024 [e3]. The forecast remains unresolved because these records do not establish an early case connecting all the required elements [e1] [e2] [e3].
Caveats
- “In short order” requires near-term onset but supplies no exact deadline.
- The later reporting describes general payment incentives rather than verified advertising income for a specific video.
- Sora's release date does not rule out earlier use of open-source counterparts.
- Failure to find an early qualifying case does not establish that none existed.
Evidence (3 items)
Context only: WIRED,
AI-generated kids videos on YouTube.
Why it matters: This contemporaneous investigation documents commercial promotion of AI-generated children's videos. Its examples concern animation, scripts and voices, without establishing photorealistic deceptive footage made with the specified tools.
- Publisher
- WIRED
- Kind of source
- News report
- About events on
- Published
Context only: OpenAI,
We’re moving our video generation model out of research preview.
Why it matters: OpenAI announced Sora's release to ChatGPT Plus and Pro users in December 2024. This does not establish when scammers began using it, and cannot rule out earlier use of open-source counterparts.
- Publisher
- OpenAI
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- About events on
- Published
Context only: The Conversation, republished by Tech Xplore,
earn money through creator incentive programs.
Why it matters: The article connects fake deportation videos following Sora's September 2025 update with creator-payment incentives. This is relevant to the predicted commercial practice, but its late timing and generalized account of incentives do not establish the full near-term forecast.
- Publisher
- The Conversation, republished by Tech Xplore
- Kind of source
- Secondary summary
- About events on
- Published
Probably right?
One AI thinks this is probably right, and the other says it’s too early to tell. The evidence isn’t conclusive, so the verdict above stays unresolved. It counts only when you pick Speculative under “How sure?”.
- Anthropic’s AI: A 2025 Conversation piece citing 404 Media reports accounts posting realistic fake deportation videos made with Sora right after its Sept 2025 update, to earn creator payouts. The core prediction held, though the timing was loose.
How we judged it
- Kind of claim
- Forecast
- Deadline
- “In short order”
Conditions
- using Sora or open-source counterparts (their words)
- on platforms such as YouTube (their words)
Where we had to interpret
- The forecast concerns deceptive operators publishing realistic-looking fabricated footage to earn advertising income, including platform payouts. It does not require a criminal conviction or proof that profit was their only private motive.
- Photorealistic means footage that an ordinary viewer could plausibly mistake for a recording of real events. AI-written scripts, synthetic narration and obvious cartoons alone do not qualify.
- The named technology is Sora or an open-source video-generation counterpart. Evidence identifying only an unspecified AI tool does not establish this element.
- The surrounding discussion makes YouTube the main example, without expressly excluding comparable video platforms.
- In short order means soon after the February 18, 2024 post. It supplies no defensible last calendar day. No numerical deadline is imposed, and examples nearly two years later cannot establish the near-term timing.
- Using the named tools is part of the predicted practice, not a separate conditional antecedent.
Right if: Dated records establish that, shortly after the post, deceptive operators began publishing photorealistic fabricated videos made with Sora or an open-source counterpart for advertising income. The records must connect the videos, generation tool, deceptive presentation and commercial purpose.
Wrong if: Reliable evidence establishes that the specified practice did not begin within the near-term period meant by the claim. Missing examples in a search, or Sora's release date alone, cannot establish this. A deadline chosen by the evaluator cannot justify contradiction.
We wrote this test after the outcome was known.
What would settle it
Dated records documenting a qualifying case unambiguously soon after February 18, 2024. They must connect actual videos and publication dates with Sora or an open-source counterpart, deceptive photorealistic presentation, and advertising income or documented intent to obtain it. Reliable evidence establishing that the practice did not begin in that near-term period could resolve the claim negatively. Search silence alone cannot.
We found 7 claims in this post. See them all.
Full record
Source and dates
Marcus on AI, Absolutely amazing ant video augurs intellectual mayhem, paragraph 7.
- Said
- We read the source
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence up to
- Checked
We read this wording on 2026-10-29. The post may have been edited after 2024-02-18.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the posts we read.
: Marcus on AI, Absolutely amazing ant video augurs intellectual mayhem
In short order, with Sora or some opensource counterparts that will emerge, scammers will start to make photorealistic fake videos simply to sell ads.
- Where
- paragraph 7
- Published
- 2024-02-18
- We read it
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Versions
- Current: Unresolved. Evidence up to 2026-10-28.
What happened to this record
PublishedBy us
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
Held backBy us
The final check failed: a cited source didn’t say what the write-up said.
Held backBy us
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.