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Changes, page 60 of 60

Everything we published, changed, or held back, newest first.

All changes (11,844)

Changes 11,801 to 11,844 of 11,844, newest first. Page 60 of 60.

2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
If Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Tesla keep their spending promises, by the end of 2025 they will together have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI over 2024 and 2025.
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
By the end of 2027, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will together have spent about $2 trillion on AI capital expenditures.
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.
2026-10-28
CorrectionBy usEd Zitron
Because the funds Anthropic raised in early 2026 and its cash flow will not cover its costs, Anthropic will have to raise at least another $200 billion within a year of 2026-06-08.
A new assessment with the same outcome replaced the previous one.
2026-10-28
CorrectionBy usEd Zitron
Anthropic's revenue for calendar 2025 was about $4.6 billion.
A new assessment with the same outcome replaced the previous one.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
Dead Money
The final check failed: a cited source didn’t say what the write-up said.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
In calendar 2025, Anthropic lost more than $8 billion.
The two reviewers reached different verdicts.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
Within about three quarters of March 2024 (by the end of 2024), the AI boom would collapse in a way that savages the revenues of the biggest tech companies.
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
By the end of 2026, a majority of AI services will move some or all of their customers to token-based billing.
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
Within a few months of 2025-10-20, AI-native companies (products built on top of AI models) will face multiple price increases.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
Marcus seriously doubts that, by the end of 2025, AI will be able to learn and master the basics of almost any new video game within a few minutes or hours and solve original puzzles in the alternate world of that video game.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
Offered as an unlikely scenario that could nonetheless come true: by the end of 2026, the giant AI infrastructure plays (like Project Stargate) that President Trump championed after his inauguration will look like an unprofitable and underused mistake.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
Filed under 'Medium confidence': at the end of 2025, OpenAI's Sora will still have trouble with physics.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
The current generation of AI agents should be removed from the market until they can be fixed.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
Filed under 'Medium confidence': by the end of 2025, few companies (and even fewer consumers) will adopt OpenAI's o3 at wide scale, because of concerns about price and robustness relative to that price.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
By the end of 2025 there will be no AI system superior to the smartest individual humans, meaning one able to do any intellectual work that any human can do.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usGary Marcus
By about February 2025, one year after the post, there will be no perfectly reliable, hallucination-free chatbots.
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
In 2029, no AI system will be able to reliably build bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from a natural-language specification or through interaction with a non-expert user, not counting code glued together from existing libraries.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usGary Marcus
Filed under 'Medium confidence': through the end of 2025, a technical moat will continue to be elusive; instead there will be more convergence on broadly similar models across both the US and China, and some systems in Europe will catch up to roughly the same place.
The final check of the write-up failed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
By the end of 2024, hallucinations by large language models will not have been reduced to the level of human experts.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
OpenAI will not release GPT-5 in 2024.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
During 2024 and 2025, leading AI figures will further revise and lower their public expectations for AI, such as AGI timelines.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
Marcus seriously doubts the projections of near-term AGI, including Dario Amodei's projection that we will have AGI in 2-3 years from August 2023.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
Marcus suspects that OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra will show loads of problems with open-ended real-world tasks, despite its success on ARC-AGI.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
If 'great' AI research agents do not arrive by the end of 2025, everything later in the AI 2027 scenario's timeline is pushed back.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usGary Marcus
Throughout 2025, AI agents will be endlessly hyped but far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
By the end of the first quarter of 2025 at the latest, investors will begin punishing big tech companies for their AI spending, and the punishment will hit them far harder than NVIDIA.
A reviewer declined to make a call.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
If Oracle loses OpenAI's revenue, Oracle will collapse.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
Once OpenAI has raised its current round of $6.5 billion to $7 billion, it will have to raise another round of at least the same size by July 2025, if not sooner.
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
If OpenAI does not convert to a for-profit structure by the end of 2025, it will be effectively dead.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
OpenAI and Broadcom will not build their custom AI chip (ASIC) in 2026.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
The final check of the write-up failed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
By the end of 2025, Microsoft will have spent over $200 billion in capital expenditures since 2023.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
By the end of 2026, the hyperscalers (Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft) will have sunk over $1.3 trillion into generative AI since March 2022.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
If generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, Microsoft, or Amazon (which Zitron believes it will), these companies will face serious pressure to curtail their investments and capital expenditures.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
If Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Tesla keep their spending promises, by the end of 2025 they will together have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI over 2024 and 2025.
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
By the end of 2027, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will together have spent about $2 trillion on AI capital expenditures.
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
Because the funds Anthropic raised in early 2026 and its cash flow will not cover its costs, Anthropic will have to raise at least another $200 billion within a year of 2026-06-08.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
Anthropic's revenue for calendar 2025 was about $4.6 billion.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
Dead Money
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
In calendar 2025, Anthropic lost more than $8 billion.
A reviewer declined to make a call.
2026-10-28
PublishedBy usEd Zitron
Within about three quarters of March 2024 (by the end of 2024), the AI boom would collapse in a way that savages the revenues of the biggest tech companies.
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
By the end of 2026, a majority of AI services will move some or all of their customers to token-based billing.
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.
2026-10-28
Held backBy usEd Zitron
Within a few months of 2025-10-20, AI-native companies (products built on top of AI models) will face multiple price increases.
The final check failed: the write-up said more than the evidence showed.