“Sora will continue to have trouble with physics.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Filed under 'Medium confidence': at the end of 2025, OpenAI's Sora will still have trouble with physics.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Deadline passed on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, 25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI, fifth item under the heading 'Medium confidence', in '25 Predictions for 2025'.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment gm-sora-physics-trouble-2025-a3
We recorded 38 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-01-01. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “the end of this year (post dated 2025-01-01: 'my own predictions for where we will be at the end of this year')”
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- Deadline passed (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- Sora will continue to have trouble with physics
- listed under the heading 'Medium confidence', separate from the post's 'High confidence' list
- 'my own predictions for where we will be at the end of this year', post dated 2025-01-01
Our interpretation
- We read the heading 'Medium confidence' as the author's own middling confidence in this prediction. The policy records such a prediction and shows what happened, but does not score it.
Counts as supported if: Not scored. The author filed the prediction under medium confidence.
Counts as contradicted if: Not scored. The author filed the prediction under medium confidence.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Can’t be checked
The statement is a recommendation, a value judgment, or too open to test. It is recorded, not scored.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.5 (the current policy is 2026-10-28.7; this assessment has not been rechecked under it)
Rationale
On January 1, 2025, Marcus predicted that Sora would continue to have trouble with physics, and listed it under the heading 'Medium confidence'. A prediction its author files under medium confidence is recorded and shown with what happened, but not scored. What happened: when OpenAI launched Sora 2 on September 30, 2025, it said the model is 'still imperfect' at obeying the laws of physics, though better than prior systems.
Limitations
- The only evidence shown is OpenAI's own description, not an independent test.
- OpenAI's statement is dated 30 September 2025, not the end of the year.
Evidence (1 item)
Context only: OpenAI,
though still imperfect, it is better about obeying the laws of physics compared to prior systems.
Why it matters here: Shown as what happened. OpenAI said on 30 September 2025 that Sora 2 is 'still imperfect' at obeying the laws of physics, though better than prior systems. This is a company disclosure, not an independent test. The prediction is not scored, so the item is context.
- Publisher
- OpenAI
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
Not scored. A prediction the author states without a medium or low confidence grade would be scored.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, 25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI
Sora will continue to have trouble with physics.
- Published
- 2025-01-01
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment gm-sora-physics-trouble-2025-a3: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Site correctionBy this site
A new assessment with the same outcome replaced the previous one.
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment gm-sora-physics-trouble-2025-a2, which was not published.