“As of today, I am more confident than ever that GPT-5 won’t land this year.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
OpenAI will not release GPT-5 in 2024.
Assessment: Supported Deadline passed on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, GPT-5… now arriving Gate 8, Gate 9, Gate 10, paragraph 12.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment gm-gpt-5-not-in-2024-a4
We recorded 6 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2024-06-21. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “this year (written 2024-06-21)”
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- Deadline passed (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- GPT-5
- won't land
- this year, in a post dated 2024-06-21
- more confident than ever
Our interpretation
- We read 'land' as a public release of a model OpenAI calls GPT-5.
Counts as supported if: OpenAI released no model it called GPT-5 on or before 2024-12-31.
Counts as contradicted if: OpenAI released a model it called GPT-5 on or before 2024-12-31.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.5 (the current policy is 2026-10-28.7; this assessment has not been rechecked under it)
Rationale
Marcus wrote on June 21, 2024 that GPT-5 would not land that year. OpenAI introduced GPT-5 on August 7, 2025, so no model called GPT-5 was released in 2024.
Limitations
- This record assesses only the release timing of a model named GPT-5. It does not assess Marcus's reasons for the forecast or what GPT-5 could do.
Evidence (1 item)
Supports the claim: OpenAI,
We are introducing GPT‑5, our best AI system yet.
Why it matters here: OpenAI introduced GPT-5 on August 7, 2025. A model first introduced in August 2025 was not released in 2024.
- Publisher
- OpenAI
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, GPT-5… now arriving Gate 8, Gate 9, Gate 10
As of today, I am more confident than ever that GPT-5 won’t land this year.
- Where
- paragraph 12
- Published
- 2024-06-21
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment gm-gpt-5-not-in-2024-a4: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Site correctionBy this site
A new assessment with the same outcome replaced the previous one.
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment gm-gpt-5-not-in-2024-a3, which was not published.