GPT-5… now arriving Gate 8, Gate 9, Gate 10
We recorded 3 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 2 can’t be checked. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (3)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It would now appear that Business Insider’s sources were confused, or overstating what they knew.”
Our reading: Business Insider's sources on an imminent GPT-5 release appear to have been confused or overstated their knowledge.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“(Probably for the third or fourth time, if my hunch is correct, with GPT 4-Turbo and 4o perhaps being failed attempts that didn’t seem worthy of the name, with another earlier attempt halting before Sam’s time speaking to the Senate in May 2023.)”
Our reading: OpenAI has probably started training GPT-5 three or four times, with GPT-4 Turbo and GPT-4o perhaps being failed attempts not worthy of the name.
No horizon
Qualifier: if his hunch is correct
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Forecast
“As of today, I am more confident than ever that GPT-5 won’t land this year.”
Our reading: OpenAI will not release GPT-5 in 2024.
Deadline passed Evidence as of
Limitation: This record assesses only the release timing of a model named GPT-5. It does not assess Marcus's reasons for the forecast or what GPT-5 could do.