“Expect more revisionism and downsized expectations throughout 2024 and 2025.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
During 2024 and 2025, leading AI figures will further revise and lower their public expectations for AI, such as AGI timelines.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Deadline passed on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, The Great AI Retrenchment has begun, closing paragraph, after 'Exhibit B'.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment gm-expect-revisionism-2024-2025-a4
We recorded 5 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2024-06-15. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “throughout 2024 and 2025 (written 2024-06-15)”
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- Deadline passed (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- Expect more revisionism and downsized expectations
- throughout 2024 and 2025
- the post's examples: Mira Murati on models 'not that far ahead' and Ray Kurzweil's reported shift from 2029 to 2032
Our interpretation
- 'Expect' is an unqualified expectation, so this is a forecast. But the post names no actors beyond its two examples, no measure, and no amount, so nothing in the statement says how much revision would count as 'more'. Any threshold would be ours, and it would decide the result.
Counts as supported if: Not scored. The statement names no actor, measure, or threshold, so any test of it would rest on criteria we supplied.
Counts as contradicted if: Not scored. The statement names no actor, measure, or threshold, so any test of it would rest on criteria we supplied.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Can’t be checked
The statement is a recommendation, a value judgment, or too open to test. It is recorded, not scored.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- Deadline passed
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.5 (the current policy is 2026-10-28.7; this assessment has not been rechecked under it)
Rationale
In a post published on June 15, 2024, Marcus wrote to expect more revisionism and downsized expectations through 2024 and 2025. The statement names no actor, measure, or threshold, so any test of it would rest on criteria we supplied. It is recorded and not scored.
Limitations
- On 22 June 2024 Marcus added an update to the post that, in his words, 'somewhat undermines the thesis of this essay': Kurzweil wrote to him that he still expects AGI by 2029.
- This record does not assess whether AI leaders lowered their expectations in 2024 or 2025.
Evidence (1 item)
Context only: Marcus on AI,
Important update, that somewhat undermines the thesis of this essay.
Why it matters here: An update the author added a week after publication. It quotes Kurzweil saying he has not revised his prediction of AGI by 2029, one of the post's two examples. Shown as context; it is not outcome evidence.
- Publisher
- Marcus on AI
- Kind of source
- The author's own statement (context only, never proof)
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
A restatement that names whose expectations, which measure, and how much change counts as 'more'.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, The Great AI Retrenchment has begun
Expect more revisionism and downsized expectations throughout 2024 and 2025.
- Published
- 2024-06-15
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment gm-expect-revisionism-2024-2025-a4: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Site correctionBy this site
A new assessment with the same outcome replaced the previous one.
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment gm-expect-revisionism-2024-2025-a3, which was not published.