The Great AI Retrenchment has begun
We recorded 5 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 2 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (5)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It was always going to happen; the ludicrously high expectations from last 18 ChatGPT-drenched months were never going to be met.”
Our reading: The ludicrously high expectations for AI from the previous 18 ChatGPT-dominated months were never going to be met, and their failure was always going to happen.
No horizon
Scope: expectations from the last 18 ChatGPT-drenched months
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“LLMs are not AGI, and (on their own) never will be; scaling alone was never going to be enough.”
Our reading: Scaling alone is not enough to reach AGI.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Finite scaling experiments cannot establish what every larger system could achieve.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Others are bailing now, too. Or at least trying to subtly alter their positions, committing less to the unrealistic.”
Our reading: Prominent AI figures are now retreating from, or quietly softening, their unrealistic claims about LLMs and AGI.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Restricting others solely to the two named examples would produce a narrower assessment than the wording clearly warrants.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“Exhibit A: OpenAI’s CTO Mira Murati just publicly acknowledged what I long suspected: there is no mind blowing GPT-5 behind the scenes as of yet.”
Our reading: As of June 2024, OpenAI has no mind-blowing GPT-5 model waiting behind the scenes.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The decisive source is contemporaneous news reporting because the relevant primary interview transcript could not be recovered.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Expect more revisionism and downsized expectations throughout 2024 and 2025.”
Our reading: During 2024 and 2025, leading AI figures will further revise and lower their public expectations for AI, such as AGI timelines.
Deadline passed Evidence as of
Limitation: On 22 June 2024 Marcus added an update to the post that, in his words, 'somewhat undermines the thesis of this essay': Kurzweil wrote to him that he still expects AGI by 2029.
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: There will be more revisionism and downsized expectations about AI throughout 2024 and 2025.
- The two reviews read the claim differently