“I guarantee he won’t be the last:”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
More people besides the one already fooled will be fooled by fake Sora-generated videos.
Assessment: Supported Settled before its deadline on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Absolutely amazing ant video augurs intellectual mayhem, paragraph 6.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs-9e3fe2-a4
We recorded 6 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-29. The source may have been edited after 2024-02-18. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- Settled before its deadline
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- Settled before its deadline (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- he won't be the last
- fooled
- too easily impressed by the fakery
Our interpretation
- Read plainly: after the post, other people would be fooled by fake videos made with Sora, meaning they would take them as real.
Counts as supported if: A credible, dated report after 2024-02-18 that people took Sora-generated videos for real footage.
Counts as contradicted if: No real way to falsify this before the tool is gone. Lasting absence of any documented cases would count against it.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- Settled before its deadline
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
On 18 February 2024, Marcus wrote that at least one person had been fooled by a Sora-generated video and that "he won't be the last." The forecast has no deadline. On 24 November 2025, The Canadian Press reported that videos made with OpenAI's Sora 2 app "have fooled many internet users since the app launched in September." That report comes after the post, so it meets the contract's early-resolution rule, and the forecast is supported. A HuffPost article published 14 November 2025 gives more limited support. It says Facebook users were "being duped" by AI-generated ICE raid videos, and that one such clip was "likely generated by OpenAI's Sora."
Limitations
- The Canadian Press makes a general statement. It does not name or count the people who were fooled.
- HuffPost says the ICE clip was likely made with Sora. It does not say this for certain, and it does not name a Sora version.
- The Canadian Press report is about the Sora 2 app. The evidence does not say how Sora 2 relates to the Sora model shown in Marcus's post.
- The Canadian Press piece also covers videos from other AI models, so not every case it describes involves Sora.
Evidence (2 items)
Supports the claim: The Canadian Press (via Castanet),
Videos generated with the Sora 2 text-to-video app, developed by OpenAI, have fooled many internet users since the app launched in September.
Why it matters here: A wire service reports that Sora videos have fooled many people since September 2025. That directly matches the forecast.
- Where
- paragraph 2
- Publisher
- The Canadian Press (via Castanet)
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Supports the claim: HuffPost,
Now, Facebook users are being duped by AI-generated videos that portray even more extreme deportations happening in public spaces, from city streets to Walmarts.
Why it matters here: Reports that Facebook users were fooled by fake ICE raid videos. The same article says the clips were likely made with OpenAI's Sora.
- Where
- paragraph 1
- Publisher
- HuffPost
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Absolutely amazing ant video augurs intellectual mayhem
I guarantee he won’t be the last:
- Where
- paragraph 6
- Published
- 2024-02-18
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs-9e3fe2-a4: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs-9e3fe2-a4.
HeldBy this site
The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Both reports concern Sora 2, a later version than the Sora model in Marcus's post..
About assessment marcus-absolutely-amazing-ant-video-augurs-9e3fe2-a3, which was not published.