“But things have been changing rapidly, and the great scaling retrenchment has already begun.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
As of November 2024, a major retreat from scaling claims in the AI field has already begun.
Assessment: Unresolved Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, The new AI scaling law shell game, paragraph 5.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game-2a70ab-a2
We recorded 12 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2024-11-24. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- the great scaling retrenchment
- has already begun
- things have been changing rapidly
Our interpretation
- The plain reading is that a substantial retreat from confidence in pretraining scaling had begun across leading AI labs and researchers.
- Retrenchment means materially qualifying earlier expectations. Developing additional methods does not, by itself, establish retreat.
- The surrounding reference to the last few weeks sets the observation period to November 1–24, 2024. The starting day is an approximation.
Counts as supported if: Contemporaneous records show multiple leading labs or researchers materially retreating from earlier claims about the capability gains expected from pretraining scale.
Counts as contradicted if: Broad contemporaneous records show those expectations remaining intact, with additional approaches presented as complementary rather than responses to disappointing scaling.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Unresolved
The record was checked, and the evidence available by the cutoff does not settle it.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
There was a documented change in some prominent researchers' views. Reuters reported doubts and alternative approaches, while Anthropic's CEO continued to defend scaling. That establishes an active dispute, but does not settle whether a substantial field-wide retrenchment had begun. Calling the evidence mixed would obscure the unresolved issue of breadth.
Limitations
- Great retrenchment has no stated threshold.
- The supporting reporting includes unnamed sources; the opposing statement is an interested company's account.
Evidence (2 items)
Supports the claim: Reuters, republished by China Intellectual Property Lawyers Network,
But now, some of the most prominent AI scientists are speaking out on the limitations of this “bigger is better” philosophy.
Why it matters here: Reuters reported public qualifications by prominent researchers and work on alternative approaches. This supports a retreat among some participants, but does not measure its field-wide extent.
- Publisher
- Reuters, republished by China Intellectual Property Lawyers Network
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
Goes against the claim: Lex Fridman Podcast, interview with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei,
And in all of those cases that we’ve measured, we see similar types of scaling laws.
Why it matters here: Amodei described continuing scaling relationships across language, other modalities and newer training stages. This is counterevidence to a broad retreat, although one leader's confidence cannot rule out retreat elsewhere.
- Publisher
- Lex Fridman Podcast, interview with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
Contemporaneous records comparing earlier and revised expectations across several leading labs, sufficient to establish the extent of the retreat.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, The new AI scaling law shell game
But things have been changing rapidly, and the great scaling retrenchment has already begun.
- Where
- paragraph 5
- Published
- 2024-11-24
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game-2a70ab-a2: Current. Outcome: Unresolved. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-a-new-ai-scaling-law-shell-game-2a70ab-a2.