Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 7 of 13
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1290)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 7 of 13: claims 601 to 700 of 1290, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Dario Amodei seems far more interested in creating a world dictated by what the United States of America deems to be legal or just, and providing services to help pursue those goals, as does OpenAI and, I’d argue, basically every AI lab.”
Our reading: Amodei seems far more interested in a world dictated by what the US deems legal or just, and in providing services to pursue those goals, than in benevolent AI, as does OpenAI and, he would argue, basically every AI lab.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Chief Executive Dario Amodei has spent the last few years massively overstating what LLMs can do in the pursuit of eternal growth.”
Our reading: For the last few years, Dario Amodei has greatly overstated what LLMs can do in order to drive growth.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“CoreWeave is arguably the largest AI compute vendor outside of the hyperscalers. If there was significant demand, none of this would be necessary.”
Our reading: NVIDIA's $27 billion in cloud agreements renting back its GPUs would be unnecessary if there were significant demand for AI compute, implying demand is weak.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It might tell you it's completely compliant and that it will run like a hot knife through butter — but LLMs don’t know anything, and you cannot be sure Claude is telling the truth as a result.”
Our reading: Claude might tell you its output is fully compliant and will run well, but because LLMs don't know anything, you cannot be sure Claude is telling the truth.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“As I discussed last week, Anthropic’s primary business model is deception, muddying the waters of what’s possible today and what might be possible tomorrow through a mixture of flimsy marketing statements and chief executive Dario Amodei’s doomerist lies about all white collar labor disappearing.”
Our reading: Anthropic's primary business model is deception about AI capabilities, including Amodei's claims about white collar labor disappearing.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This is the grifter economy, and the people that should be stopping them are asleep at the wheel.”
Our reading: The AI hype economy is a grifter economy, and the media and markets meant to check it are asleep at the wheel.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This is thanks to the intentionally-deceptive marketing pedalled by Anthropic and validated by the media.”
Our reading: Investors' confusion about AI replacing software is caused by Anthropic's intentionally deceptive marketing, validated by the media.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If anything changes here — such as difficulty acquiring debt or investor pressure cutting capex — NVIDIA is in real trouble, as it’s made over $95 billion in commitments to build out for the AI bubble.”
Our reading: If anything changes in hyperscalers' pattern of ever-growing GPU purchases, such as difficulty acquiring debt or investor pressure cutting capex, NVIDIA is in real trouble because it has made over $95 billion in commitments to build out for the AI bubble.
No horizon
Only if: if anything changes in hyperscalers' GPU purchasing, such as difficulty acquiring debt or investor pressure cutting capex
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Unprofitable, unsustainable AI threatens future of venture capital, private equity and the markets themselves.”
Our reading: Unprofitable, unsustainable AI threatens the future of venture capital, private equity, and the markets.
No horizon
Source: 2025, A Retrospective
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“there is no AI SaaS story, and everything rides - and dies - on selling GPUs.”
Our reading: There is no AI SaaS story, and everything in the AI industry rides, and dies, on selling GPUs.
No horizon
Source: 2025, A Retrospective
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb”
Our reading: CoreWeave, an AI compute neocloud backed by NVIDIA, is a time bomb.
No horizon
Source: 2025, A Retrospective
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“LLMs are not good enough for people to pay regular software prices at any scale, and the consequences of this will be that every single dollar spent on GPUs has been for exactly one point: manipulating the value of their stocks.”
Our reading: LLMs are not good enough for people to pay regular software prices at any scale, and as a consequence every single dollar spent on GPUs will turn out to have been for exactly one purpose: manipulating the value of their stocks.
No horizon
Scope: every single dollar spent on GPUs
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In really simple terms, I believe that almost every investment in a data center or AI startup may go to zero.”
Our reading: Almost every investment in a data center or AI startup may go to zero.
No horizon
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The tech industry has run out of hypergrowth ideas, and in its desperation hitched itself to the least-profitable hardware and software in history, then spent three straight years lying about what was possible to the media, analysts and shareholders.”
Our reading: Out of hypergrowth ideas, the tech industry bet on AI, the least-profitable hardware and software in history, and spent three years lying about what it could do.
No horizon
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In reality, venture capital shouldn’t have touched LLMs with a fifteen foot pole, because the margins were obviously, blatantly bad from the very beginning.”
Our reading: Venture capital should not have invested in LLMs because their margins were obviously bad from the start.
No horizon
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Similarly, it’s time for everybody — analysts, the media, members of congress, the fucking pope, I don’t care — to start treating these companies with suspicion, and to start demanding timelines.”
Our reading: Everybody, including analysts, the media and members of Congress, should start treating these companies with suspicion and start demanding timelines.
No horizon
Scope: everybody — analysts, the media, members of congress, the pope
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It turns out the deal didn’t exist and everybody fell for it! NVIDIA hasn’t sent a dime and likely won’t.”
Our reading: NVIDIA has not sent any money under its letter of intent to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, and likely will not.
No horizon
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“AI does not have the business returns and may have negative gross margins.”
Our reading: AI lacks business returns and may have negative gross margins.
No horizon
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These deals are announced with the intention of suggesting there is more revenue and money in generative AI than actually exists.”
Our reading: AI deal announcements are made to suggest more revenue and money exist in generative AI than actually do.
No horizon
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“These subtle details suggest that the deal is not going to be for $15 billion, and the lack of activity suggests it might not happen at all.”
Our reading: The NVIDIA/Microsoft investment in Anthropic will likely not total $15 billion and might not happen at all.
No horizon
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Generative AI is not a functional industry, and once the money works that out, everything burns.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not a functional industry, and it will collapse once investors realise this.
No horizon
Only if: once investors realise it is not functional
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The likelihood of the majority of these projects being A) completed within the next year and B) completed on budget is very, very small.”
Our reading: The likelihood is very, very small that most of the data center projects covered by his modeled ~$171.5 billion of data center debt (about 3.2GW) will be completed both within the next year and on budget.
No horizon
Scope: these projects: the modeled debt-funded data center capacity
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Before then, NVIDIA’s bubble is likely to burst.”
Our reading: NVIDIA's bubble is likely to burst before debt and venture funding for AI run out.
No horizon
Qualifier: before debt and venture money run out
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It is time to wake up. These are the real-life costs of running an AI company. OpenAI and Anthropic are going to be even worse.”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's financials will look even worse than the heavy losses of Zhipu and MiniMax.
No horizon
Source: The Enshittifinancial Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“CoreWeave made $1.36 billion in revenue (and lost $110 million doing so) in its last quarter — and if that’s indicative of the kind of actual, real demand for AI compute, I think it’s time to start panicking about whether all of this was for nothing.”
Our reading: If CoreWeave's last quarter ($1.36 billion revenue, $110 million loss) is indicative of real demand for AI compute, Zitron thinks it is time to start panicking about whether all of this was for nothing.
No horizon
Only if: if that's indicative of the kind of actual, real demand for AI compute
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“More than likely NVIDIA is doing relatively boring vendor financing stuff and getting people to pay them on 50-60 day time scales — probably net 60, and, like it said, it gets paid upfront sometimes.”
Our reading: NVIDIA is more than likely doing relatively boring vendor financing with roughly 50-60 day payment terms.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And yes, while I believe that one day this will all be seen as one of the most egregious wastes of capital of all time, for the time being, Jensen Huang may be one of the most successful salespeople in business history.”
Our reading: The generative AI buildout will one day be seen as one of the most egregious wastes of capital of all time.
No horizon
Qualifier: one day
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Once this pops — and it will pop, because there is simply not enough money to do this forever — there must be a referendum on those that chose to ignore the naked instability of this era, and the endless lies that inflated the AI bubble.”
Our reading: Once the AI bubble pops, there must be a referendum on those who chose to ignore the naked instability of this era and the endless lies that inflated the AI bubble.
No horizon
Qualifier: once this pops
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In simple terms, big tech — Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, but also a number of other companies — no longer has the “next big thing,” and jumped on AI out of an abundance of desperation.”
Our reading: Big tech jumped on AI out of desperation because it had run out of a next big thing.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It’s entirely possible that everything NVIDIA is doing is above board. Great! But that doesn’t do anything for the deep pit of dread in my stomach.”
Our reading: It is entirely possible that everything NVIDIA is doing is above board.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Blackwell does not appear to be “more efficient” in a way that actually makes anybody a profit, and we’re potentially years from seeing these GPUs in operation in data centers at the scale they’re being shipped — so why would anybody be buying more?”
Our reading: Blackwell does not appear to be more efficient in a way that makes anybody a profit, and we are potentially years from seeing Blackwell GPUs in operation in data centers at the scale they are being shipped.
No horizon
Qualifier: does not appear
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Nobody seriously thought that NVIDIA was like Enron before (though JustDario, who has been questioning its accounting practices for years, is a little suspicious), because Enron was one of the largest criminal enterprises in history, and NVIDIA is at worst, I believe, a big, dodgy entity that is doing whatever it can to survive.”
Our reading: NVIDIA is at worst a big, dodgy entity doing whatever it can to survive, not a criminal enterprise like Enron.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In fact, before NVIDIA put out a letter saying how it was nothing like Enron I would have staunchly defended the company against the Enron allegations, because I truly do not think NVIDIA is committing fraud.”
Our reading: Zitron truly does not think NVIDIA is committing fraud.
No horizon
Qualifier: I truly do not think
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In fact, I’m not even saying it goes tits up. Hell, it might even have another good quarter or two.”
Our reading: NVIDIA might have another good quarter or two.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Based on the information in this piece, OpenAI’s costs and revenues are potentially dramatically different to what we believed.”
Our reading: OpenAI's costs and revenues are potentially dramatically different from what was publicly believed.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Based on these numbers, it appears that OpenAI may be the single-most cash intensive startup of all time, and that the cost of running large language models may not be something that can be supported by revenues.”
Our reading: OpenAI may be the most cash-intensive startup of all time.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Based on these numbers, it appears that OpenAI may be the single-most cash intensive startup of all time, and that the cost of running large language models may not be something that can be supported by revenues.”
Our reading: The cost of running large language models may not be supportable by revenues.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Nevertheless, Anthropic’s costs exploded in the space of a month by $135.2 million (35%) - likely due to the fact that users, as I reported in mid-July, were costing it thousands or tens of thousands of dollars in compute, a problem it still faces to this day”
Our reading: Anthropic's costs rose by $135.2 million (35%) in a month, to September 2025, likely because some users were costing it thousands or tens of thousands of dollars in compute.
No horizon
Qualifier: likely
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And I was god damn right. Or, at least, it sure looks like I am. I’m hedging, forgive me. I cannot say for certain, but I see a pattern.”
Our reading: The Subprime AI Crisis he predicted, in which AI providers raise subsidized prices and customers pass them on, appears to be happening.
No horizon
Qualifier: cannot say for certain
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“When I wrote that Anthropic and OpenAI had begun the Subprime AI Crisis back in July, I assumed that the increase in costs was burdensome, but having the information from its AWS bills, it seems that Anthropic’s actions directly caused Cursor’s costs to explode by over 100%.”
Our reading: Anthropic's actions appear to have directly caused Cursor's costs to rise by over 100%.
No horizon
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Now, the jump in costs — $65.1 million or so between April and May — likely comes as a result of the final training for Sonnet and Opus 4, as well as, I imagine, some sort of testing to make sure Claude Code was ready to go.”
Our reading: Anthropic's roughly $65.1 million AWS cost jump from April to May 2025 likely came from final training of Sonnet and Opus 4 and Claude Code testing.
No horizon
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s very difficult to see Service Tiers as anything other than an aggressive rent-seeking maneuver.”
Our reading: It is very difficult to see Anthropic's Service Tiers as anything other than an aggressive rent-seeking maneuver.
No horizon
Qualifier: very difficult to see as anything other than
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I’m tired that so many people have tried to pretend there’s a justification for burning billions of dollars every year, clinging to empty tropes about how this is just like Uber or Amazon Web Services, when Anthropic has built something far more mediocre.”
Our reading: Claims that Anthropic's billions in annual burn are justified by comparisons to Uber or AWS are empty tropes, because Anthropic has built something far more mediocre.
No horizon
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“What I believe happened to Cursor will likely happen to every AI-native company, because in a very real sense, Anthropic’s products are a wrapper for its own models, except it only has to pay the (unprofitable) costs of running them on Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud.”
Our reading: Every AI-native company will likely suffer what happened to Cursor: price increases from model providers that also compete with it.
No horizon
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In my opinion — and this is just my gut instinct — I believe that it is either significantly more expensive to run Anthropic than we know, or Anthropic’s leaked (and stated) revenue numbers are worse than we believe.”
Our reading: In his opinion, as a gut instinct, either Anthropic is significantly more expensive to run than is known, or its leaked and stated revenue numbers are worse than believed.
No horizon
Qualifier: in my opinion, just my gut instinct
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I am guessing, because I do not know, but with $4.85 billion of other expenses to account for, it’s reasonable to believe Anthropic spent an amount similar to its AWS spend on Google Cloud.”
Our reading: Anthropic plausibly spent about as much on Google Cloud in 2024 as on AWS.
No horizon
Qualifier: a guess
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It’s likely the June 2025 spike in revenue came from the introduction of service tiers, which specifically target prompt caching, increasing the amount of tokens you’re charged for as an enterprise customer based on the term of the contract, and your forecast usage.”
Our reading: Anthropic's June 2025 revenue spike likely came from introducing service tiers that raised charges on prompt caching.
No horizon
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I have sat with these numbers for a great deal of time, and I can’t find any evidence that Anthropic has any path to profitability outside of aggressively increasing the prices on their customers to the point that its services will become untenable for consumers and enterprise customers alike.”
Our reading: After long study of the numbers, he cannot find any evidence that Anthropic has a path to profitability other than raising customer prices so aggressively that its services become untenable for consumers and enterprises.
No horizon
Qualifier: he can't find any evidence
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As a result, both OpenAI and Anthropic can (and may very well!) devour the market of any company that builds on top of their models.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic may take over the markets of companies that build on their models.
No horizon
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Anthropic and Amodei’s sudden willingness to take large swaths of capital from the Gulf States does not suggest that it’s not at least a little desperate for capital, especially given Anthropic has, according to Bloomberg, “recently held early funding talks with Abu Dhabi-based investment firm MGX” a month after raising $13 billion.”
Our reading: Anthropic's sudden willingness to take large amounts of Gulf State capital, along with its early funding talks with MGX a month after raising $13 billion, does not suggest that it is not at least a little desperate for capital.
No horizon
Qualifier: according to Bloomberg's report of early talks with MGX
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“As you can see, Cursor’s costs continue to balloon in July, and I am guessing it’s because of the Service Tiers situation — which, I believe, indirectly resulted in Cursor pushing more users to models that it runs on Amazon’s infrastructure.”
Our reading: He guesses that Cursor's AWS costs kept ballooning in July 2025 because of the Service Tiers situation, which he believes indirectly led Cursor to push more users to models it runs on Amazon's infrastructure.
No horizon
Qualifier: I am guessing
Source: This Is How Much Anthropic and Cursor Spend On Amazon Web Services
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The conservative estimate of capital expenditures related to data centers is around $400 billion, but given the $50 billion a quarter in private credit, I’m going to guess it breaks $500 billion, all to build capacity for an industry yet to prove itself.”
Our reading: Given $50 billion a quarter in private credit, he guesses that data-center-related capital expenditures break $500 billion, above a conservative estimate of around $400 billion, all to build capacity for an industry yet to prove itself.
No horizon
Qualifier: his guess
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The only thing “powerful” about generative AI is its mythology.”
Our reading: The only powerful thing about generative AI is its mythology.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This is nothing like anything you’ve seen before, because this is the dumbest shit that the tech industry has ever done.”
Our reading: The AI bubble is unlike previous bubbles and is the dumbest thing the tech industry has done.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Anyway, I cannot be clear enough how unlikely it is that (as NVIDIA has said) “the first gigawatt of NVIDIA systems will be deployed in the second half of 2026,” and that’s if it has bought the land and got the permits and ordered the construction, none of which has happened yet.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely that the first gigawatt of NVIDIA systems for OpenAI will be deployed in the second half of 2026.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It’s often emotive — or at the very least, driven or inspired by a given emotion — which is something that an AI simply can’t replicate in a way that’s authentic and believable.”
Our reading: AI cannot replicate emotive good writing in an authentic, believable way.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The bubble has entered its most pornographic, aggressive and destructive stage, where the more obvious it becomes that they’re cooked, the more ridiculous the generative AI industry will act — a dark juxtaposition against every new study that says “generative AI does not work” or new story about ChatGPT’s uncanny ability to activate mental illness in people.”
Our reading: The bubble has entered its most pornographic, aggressive and destructive stage, where the more obvious it becomes that they're cooked, the more ridiculous the generative AI industry will act.
No horizon
Qualifier: the more obvious it becomes that they're cooked
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The only reason anyone humours any of this crap is the endless hoarding of GPUs to build capacity for a revolution that will never arrive.”
Our reading: The AI revolution that GPU hoarding is building capacity for will never arrive.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Members of the media, I am begging you, stop doing this.”
Our reading: The media should stop repeating claims that AI is replacing software engineers without checking them.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The model companies similarly started going after individual and business customers, offering software and subscriptions that promised the world, though this mostly boiled down to chatbots that could generate stuff, and then doubled down with the promise of “agents” — a marketing term that’s meant to make you think “autonomous digital worker” but really means “broken digital product.””
Our reading: AI "agents" are a marketing term for what are really broken digital products.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I must be clear that these deals are intentionally made to continue the myth of generative AI, to pump NVIDIA, and to make sure OpenAI insiders can sell $10.3 billion of shares.”
Our reading: The OpenAI-Oracle and NVIDIA-OpenAI deals are intentionally made to continue the myth of generative AI, to pump NVIDIA, and to make sure OpenAI insiders can sell $10.3 billion of shares.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In a very real sense, OpenAI threatens the future of available capital for the tech industry.”
Our reading: OpenAI threatens the future availability of capital for the tech industry.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This NVIDIA deal is a farce — an obvious attempt by the largest company on the American stock market to prop up the one significant revenue-generator in the entire industry, knowing that time is running out for it to create new avenues for eternal growth.”
Our reading: The NVIDIA-OpenAI deal is a farce, an obvious attempt by NVIDIA to prop up OpenAI, the industry's one significant revenue-generator, knowing that time is running out for it to create new avenues for eternal growth.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI exists for two reasons: to cost money, and to make executives look busy.”
Our reading: Generative AI exists only to cost money and make executives look busy.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Generative AI was always set up to fail, because it was meant to be everything, was talked about like it was everything, is still sold like it’s everything, yet for all the fucking hype, it all comes down to two companies: OpenAI, and, of course, NVIDIA.”
Our reading: Generative AI was always set up to fail because it was oversold, and it all comes down to OpenAI and NVIDIA.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“OpenAI is the generative AI industry — and it’s a dog of a company.”
Our reading: OpenAI is the generative AI industry, and it is a dog of a company.
No horizon
Source: The Case Against Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Big tech has spent over $500 billion in capital expenditures in the last 18 months, and all told — between investments of cloud credits and infrastructure — will likely sink over $600 billion by year's-end.”
Our reading: Big tech, having spent over $500 billion in capital expenditures in the last 18 months, will likely sink over $600 billion all told, counting investments of cloud credits and infrastructure, by year's end.
No horizon
Scope: all told, between investments of cloud credits and infrastructure
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“AI is being sold as a transformational technology, and I am yet to see it transform anything.”
Our reading: Although marketed as transformational, generative AI has not transformed anything he has seen.
No horizon
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We Are Not In The Early Days Of Generative AI, And Anyone Using This Argument Is Either Ignorant Or Intentionally Deceptive”
Our reading: Generative AI is not in its early days.
No horizon
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In fact, I believe that thanks to effectively infinite resources, we've speed-run the entire Large Language Model era, and we're nearing the end.”
Our reading: Because of effectively unlimited resources, the Large Language Model era has been sped through and is nearing its end.
No horizon
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The answer, of course, is that it has no intellect, is not intelligent, and Large Language Models are being pushed up a mountain by a cadre of people who are either easily impressed or invested — either emotionally or financially — in its success due to the company they keep or their intentions for the world.”
Our reading: LLMs have no intellect and are not intelligent; they are promoted by people who are easily impressed or have an emotional or financial stake in them.
No horizon
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Anyway, AI 2027 is fan fiction, nothing more, and just because it’s full of fancy words and has five different grifters on its byline doesn’t mean anything.”
Our reading: The AI 2027 scenario is fiction with no forecasting value.
No horizon
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We don’t know if AGI is possible, anyone claiming they do is lying.”
Our reading: Nobody knows whether AGI is possible, and anyone who claims to know is lying.
No horizon
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Anyone falling for this is a mark, and OpenAI should have gone out of its way to correct people.”
Our reading: OpenAI should have actively corrected misreported claims that GPT-4 hired a TaskRabbit worker.
No horizon
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“As I've said in the past, OpenAI is deliberately using Weekly Active Users so that it doesn't have to publish its monthly active users, which I believe would be higher.”
Our reading: OpenAI is deliberately using weekly active users so that it doesn't have to publish its monthly active users, which he believes would be higher.
No horizon
Qualifier: he believes monthly active users would be higher
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“As things begin to collapse — and they sure look like they're collapsing, but I am not making any wild claims about "the bubble bursting" quite yet — it will look increasingly more deranged to bluntly publish everything that these companies say.”
Our reading: Things in the AI industry sure look like they're beginning to collapse, though he is not making claims about 'the bubble bursting' quite yet.
No horizon
Qualifier: not making any wild claims about 'the bubble bursting' quite yet
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“There's a good chance that Anthropic and OpenAI dominate the capex of Amazon and Microsoft, in part because what the fuck else are they buying all these GPUs for, as their own AI services don't seem to be making that much money at all.”
Our reading: There is a good chance that Anthropic and OpenAI dominate the capital expenditures of Amazon and Microsoft.
No horizon
Qualifier: a good chance
Source: How To Argue With An AI Booster
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Outside of ChatGPT, there’s really no proof that these products are anything remotely essential, and I argue there’s very little about ChatGPT that Microsoft couldn’t provide with rate limits via Copilot.”
Our reading: Outside of ChatGPT there is really no proof that generative AI products are remotely essential, and he argues there is very little about ChatGPT that Microsoft could not provide, with rate limits, through Copilot.
No horizon
Scope: outside of ChatGPT
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It must go public, because at a valuation of $300 billion, OpenAI can no longer be acquired, because nobody has that much money and, if let’s be real, nobody actually believes OpenAI is worth that much.”
Our reading: At a $300B valuation OpenAI cannot be acquired and must go public; nobody truly believes it's worth that much.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“OpenAI doesn’t break out the actual revenues behind these numbers for a reason, and I believe that reason is “they don’t look as good.””
Our reading: He believes OpenAI does not break out the actual revenues behind its numbers because they do not look as good.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In fact, generative AI is turning out to be a fever dream entirely made up by big tech. OpenAI would be dead if it wasn’t for the massive infrastructure provided by Microsoft at-cost in return for rights to its IP, research, and the ability to sell its models on top of the tens of billions of dollars of venture capital thrown into its billion-dollar cash incinerator.”
Our reading: OpenAI would be dead without Microsoft's at-cost infrastructure and massive venture funding.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“To be clear, OpenAI, by my estimates, has only made around $5.26 billion this year (and will have trouble hitting its $12.7 billion revenue projection for 2025), and will likely lose more than $10 billion to do so.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely lose more than $10 billion in 2025.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It feels as if everything is aligning for disaster, and I fear there’s nothing that can be done to avert it.”
Our reading: It feels to him as if everything is aligning for disaster, and he fears nothing can be done to avert it.
No horizon
Qualifier: it feels as if
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I don’t think this happens! I think this is a silly idea, and the most likely situation would be that Microsoft would unhinge its jaw and swallow OpenAI and its customers whole.”
Our reading: He does not think a government bailout of OpenAI will happen and calls the idea silly; he says the most likely situation is that Microsoft would swallow OpenAI and its customers whole.
No horizon
Qualifier: I don't think this happens
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I’m not saying these companies are unnecessary, so much as they may very well be impossible to run as real businesses.”
Our reading: Generative AI companies may be impossible to run as real businesses.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And, like homeowners in the dismal years of 2008 and 2009, they’re almost certainly underwater — they just haven’t realized it yet.”
Our reading: VCs invested in unprofitable generative AI startups are almost certainly underwater on those investments.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“If OpenAI is making a billion dollars a month, it is possibly losing that much (or more) after revenue, and that’s the money it can get selling the product in a form that can never turn profitable.”
Our reading: If OpenAI is making a billion dollars a month, it is possibly losing that much or more after revenue, and that revenue comes from selling the product in a form that can never turn profitable.
No horizon
Qualifier: if OpenAI is making a billion dollars a month
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This isn’t anything like any boom that leads to something, and it’s because the economics do not make sense.”
Our reading: The generative AI boom is unlike booms that lead to something because its economics don't make sense.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Anthropic would be dead if both Google and Amazon — the latter of which provides much of its infrastructure — hadn’t invested billions in keeping it alive so that it can burn $3 billion or more in 2025 while fucking over its enterprise customers and rate limiting the rest.”
Our reading: Anthropic would be dead if Google and Amazon had not invested billions to keep it alive, investment that lets it burn $3 billion or more in 2025 while mistreating its enterprise customers and rate-limiting the rest.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The unit economics of this business do not make sense and yet, on some level, its existence is deeply important to the valley’s future.”
Our reading: Cursor's unit economics do not make sense, yet its existence is important to Silicon Valley's future.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The generative AI industry is, at its core, unnatural. It does not make significant revenue compared to its unbelievable costs, nor does it have much revenue potential.”
Our reading: The generative AI industry makes little revenue relative to its costs and has little revenue potential.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“But I’ve been dancing around the real reason they won’t sell: because, fundamentally, generative AI does not let companies build something new.”
Our reading: Generative AI startups won't sell because generative AI fundamentally doesn't let companies build anything new.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Is Cursor worth $10 billion? Nope! No matter how good its product may or may not be, it is not good enough to be sold at a price that doesn’t require Cursor to incinerate hundreds of millions of dollars with no end in sight.”
Our reading: Cursor is not worth $10 billion, because however good its product is, it is not good enough to sell at a price that would spare Cursor from burning hundreds of millions of dollars with no end in sight.
No horizon
Qualifier: no matter how good its product may or may not be
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The revenue you see today is what people are willing to pay for a product that loses money, and I cannot imagine they would pay as much if the companies in question charged their costs.”
Our reading: He cannot imagine customers paying as much as they do today if AI companies charged them their actual costs.
No horizon
Only if: if the companies charged their costs
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And now they're in "early-stage discussions" about an employee share sale that would value the company at $500 billion, a ludicrous number that shows we're leaving the realm of reality.”
Our reading: The $500 billion valuation implied by OpenAI's reported employee share sale discussions is a ludicrous number that shows we are leaving the realm of reality.
No horizon
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Private equity may ultimately face the same problem as many AI startups: there is no clear exit strategy for these investments. In the absence of real liquidity, firms will likely resort to all manner of financial engineering (read: bullshit) —marking up portfolio companies using internally generated valuations, charging fees on those inflated marks, and using those marks to entice new commitments from limited partners.”
Our reading: Private equity may ultimately face the same lack of a clear exit strategy as many AI startups, and in the absence of real liquidity, firms will likely resort to financial engineering such as marking up portfolio companies with internal valuations, charging fees on those marks, and using them to attract new commitments from limited partners.
No horizon
Only if: in the absence of real liquidity
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I know it sounds a little insane, but I believe that Cursor is the weak point of the entire AI bubble, and I’ll explain why, and how this could go.”
Our reading: He believes Cursor is the weak point of the entire AI bubble.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: AI Is A Money Trap
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“the most important company in the entire AI industry needs to convert by the end of the year or it's effectively dead”
Our reading: If OpenAI does not convert to a for-profit structure by the end of 2025, it will be effectively dead.
Deadline passed Evidence as of
Only if: OpenAI does not convert by the end of the year (2025)
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These are the single-most-popular consumer software subscriptions in the world — and OpenAI's 15.5 million subscribers suggest that it can't rely on them for the kind of growth that would actually make the company worth $300 billion (or more).”
Our reading: OpenAI's 15.5 million subscribers suggest it can't rely on them for the kind of growth that would make the company worth $300 billion or more.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggest
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Large Language Models authoritatively state things that are incorrect because they have no concept of right or wrong.”
Our reading: LLMs confidently state incorrect things because they have no concept of right or wrong.
No horizon