Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 8 of 13
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1290)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 8 of 13: claims 701 to 800 of 1290, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The term "agent" is one of the most egregious acts of fraud I've seen in my entire career writing about this crap, and that includes the metaverse.”
Our reading: Calling AI products "agents" is one of the most egregious frauds the author has seen.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The money isn't there, the users aren't there, every company seems to lose money and some companies lose so much money that it's impossible to tell how they'll survive.”
Our reading: Generative AI lacks money and users, every company appears to lose money, and some lose so much that their survival is in doubt.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“To be abundantly clear, the manipulative suggestion here is that these models are autonomous or conscious in some way, which they are not.”
Our reading: AI models are not autonomous or conscious; stories about them scheming are deceptive.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“As a result, it's very, very difficult for a company to build something unique.”
Our reading: Because all generative AI companies rely on LLMs with inherent limits, it is very hard for any of them to build something unique.
No horizon
Qualifier: because they all rely on LLMs with inherent limits
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In any case, it doesn't seem like you can really build a consumer AI startup that makes anything approaching a real company.”
Our reading: Apart from ChatGPT, it does not seem possible to build a consumer AI startup that becomes anything like a real company.
No horizon
Qualifier: other than ChatGPT
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In short, I believe the AI bubble is deeply unstable, built on vibes and blind faith, and when I say "the AI bubble," I mean the entirety of the AI trade.”
Our reading: The AI bubble, meaning the whole AI trade, is deeply unstable and built on vibes and blind faith.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Any and all stories about AI replacing jobs are intentionally manipulative attempts to boost stock valuations and suggest that models are capable of replacing human workers at scale.”
Our reading: Stories about AI replacing jobs are deliberately manipulative attempts to boost stock valuations; models cannot replace human workers at scale.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Yet after that, generative AI feels more like a feature of cloud infrastructure rather than infrastructure itself.”
Our reading: Generative AI feels more like a feature of cloud infrastructure than infrastructure itself.
No horizon
Qualifier: feels more like
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Cursor misled its customers, and its current revenue is, as a result, highly unlikely to stay at this level.”
Our reading: Cursor misled customers, and its current revenue is highly unlikely to stay at its current level.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Andy Jassy have overseen a needless, wasteful and destructive economic force that will harm our markets (and by a larger extension our economy) and the tech industry writ large, and when this is over, they must be held accountable.”
Our reading: Once the AI bubble is over, the tech CEOs who drove it must be held accountable.
No horizon
Qualifier: when this is over
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“There is a shareholder vote for Tesla to potentially invest in xAI, which will probably happen, allowing Musk to continue to pull leverage from his Tesla stock until the company's decaying sales and brand eventually swallow him whole.”
Our reading: Tesla investing in xAI via a shareholder vote will probably happen.
No horizon
Qualifier: pending shareholder vote
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Nevertheless, none of these products are autonomous agents, and anybody using the term agent likely means "chatbot."”
Our reading: None of the 'agent' products he discussed (such as Salesforce Agentforce, ChatGPT agent, Glean, ServiceNow and coding agents) are autonomous agents, and anybody using the term 'agent' likely means 'chatbot'.
No horizon
Scope: these products (those discussed)
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Perception matters just as much as actual numbers, and sometimes more, and a shift in sentiment could start a chain of events that knocks down the entire house of cards.”
Our reading: A shift in sentiment about NVIDIA could set off a chain of events that brings down the whole AI trade.
No horizon
Only if: a shift in sentiment around NVIDIA
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“My Rot-Com Bubble thesis suggests we're out of hypergrowth ideas, and yeah, I think we're out of ideas related to Large Language Models too.”
Our reading: He thinks the tech industry is out of ideas related to Large Language Models, and his Rot-Com Bubble thesis suggests it is out of hypergrowth ideas generally.
No horizon
Qualifier: my thesis suggests
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Businesses powered by generative AI do not seem to be popular.”
Our reading: Businesses powered by generative AI do not appear to be popular.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In any case, every single company you see using the word agent is trying to mislead you.”
Our reading: Every company that uses the word "agent" is trying to mislead you.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Large Language Models are too expensive to run, and have limited abilities beyond the ones I've named previously, and because everybody is running models that all, on some level, do the same thing, it's very hard for people to build really innovative products on top of them.”
Our reading: LLMs are too expensive to run and have limited abilities beyond those he named, and because everybody is running models that all, on some level, do the same thing, it is very hard to build really innovative products on top of them.
No horizon
Qualifier: on some level
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Google's $1.1 billion in workspace service revenue came from a forced price-hike on those who use Google services to run their businesses, meaning that this is likely not a number that can significantly increase without punishing them further.”
Our reading: Google's $1.1 billion Workspace AI revenue came from a forced price hike and probably cannot grow much without further punishing customers.
No horizon
Qualifier: without punishing business customers further
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This quote has been used as a means of suggesting that Nadella is saying that “generative AI is generating basically no value,” which, while somewhat true, obfuscates its true meaning: Satya Nadella isn’t saying a fucking thing.”
Our reading: It is somewhat true that generative AI is generating basically no value.
No horizon
Qualifier: somewhat true
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Even if every single one of these companies was making $18 billion in revenue a year from this it wouldn’t be great, but it’s more than likely that these chunderfucks can’t even pull together the projected revenue ($32 billion) of the global smartwatch industry!”
Our reading: Big Tech's combined AI revenue most likely won't reach the $32 billion projected revenue of the smartwatch industry.
No horizon
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“These models are dangerous and chaotic, built with little intention or regard for the future, just like the rest of big tech’s products.”
Our reading: Generative AI models are dangerous and chaotic, built with little intention or regard for the future, just like the rest of big tech's products.
No horizon
Scope: just like the rest of big tech's products
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Wario Amodei, Tim Cook, Andy Jassy — they deserve to be laughed at, mocked, or at the very least interrogated vigorously, because their combined might has produced no exciting or interesting products outside of, at best, what will amount to a productivity upgrade for integrated development environments and faster ways to throw out code that may or may not be reliable.”
Our reading: The combined might of Nadella, Altman, Amodei, Cook and Jassy has produced no exciting or interesting products, apart from, at best, what will amount to a productivity upgrade for coding tools (IDEs) and faster ways to produce code that may or may not be reliable.
No horizon
Qualifier: at best
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Wario Amodei, Tim Cook, Andy Jassy — they deserve to be laughed at, mocked, or at the very least interrogated vigorously”
Our reading: Nadella, Altman, Amodei, Cook and Jassy should be mocked or at least questioned vigorously.
No horizon
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“So, here’s my radical suggestion: start making fun of these people.”
Our reading: People should start mocking AI and tech leaders.
No horizon
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I’m terribly, horribly bored, and if you’re interested in this shit I am genuinely curious why, especially if you’re a reporter, because right now the “innovation” happening in AI is, at best, further mutations of the Software As A Service business model, providing far less value than previous innovations at a calamitous cost.”
Our reading: Right now, AI 'innovation' is at best further variations on the software-as-a-service business model, giving far less value than previous innovations at a calamitous cost.
No horizon
Qualifier: at best
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And if you ever need proof that Google just doesn’t know how to fucking innovate anymore, look at AI Summaries, a product that both misunderstands search and why people use ChatGPT as a search replacement.”
Our reading: Google's AI Summaries misunderstand both search and why people use ChatGPT as a search replacement, which he offers as proof that Google no longer knows how to innovate.
No horizon
Qualifier: anymore
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Sundar Pichai, when asked one of Nilay Patel’s patented 100-word-plus-questions about Jony Ive and Sam Altman’s new (and likely heavily delayed) hardware startup:”
Our reading: The OpenAI/Jony Ive hardware venture is likely to be heavily delayed.
No horizon
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“They can yammer at you all they want about “lots of people using ChatGPT,” but that doesn’t change the fact that ChatGPT just isn’t that revolutionary, and their only play here is to make you feel stupid rather than actually showing you why it’s so fucking revolutionary.”
Our reading: However many people use ChatGPT, it just isn't that revolutionary.
No horizon
Qualifier: regardless of how many people use it
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, a company allegedly worth $300 billion to venture capitalists and SoftBank, kind of sounds like a huge idiot!”
Our reading: Sam Altman kind of sounds like a huge idiot.
No horizon
Qualifier: kind of
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“No matter how big ChatGPT is, the fact that there’s a product out there with hundreds of millions of users that constantly gets answers wrong is a genuinely worrying thing for society, and that’s before you get to the environmental damage, the fact it trained its models on millions of people’s art and writing, and oh, I dunno, the fact it plans to lose over a hundred billions of dollars before becoming profitable?”
Our reading: However big ChatGPT is, a product with hundreds of millions of users that constantly gets answers wrong is genuinely worrying for society.
No horizon
Qualifier: no matter how big ChatGPT is
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Put aside however you feel about generative AI for a second and face one very simple point: it doesn’t do enough, it’s really not cool at all, and we’re being forced to use it.”
Our reading: Generative AI doesn't do enough, is really not cool at all, and people are being forced to use it.
No horizon
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Every member of the media covering this uncritically should feel ashamed of themselves.”
Our reading: Journalists who covered Anthropic's blackmail stories uncritically should be ashamed.
No horizon
Qualifier: covering uncritically
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It has, allegedly, 500 million weekly active users — and, by the last count, only 15.5 million paying subscribers, an absolutely putrid conversion rate even before you realize that the actual conversion rate would be monthly active subscribers.”
Our reading: ChatGPT's allegedly 500 million weekly active users against, by the last count, 15.5 million paying subscribers is an absolutely putrid conversion rate.
No horizon
Qualifier: allegedly
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This is gobbledygook, nonsense, bullshit peddled by a guy who has only the most tangential understanding of the technology his company is building.”
Our reading: Sam Altman has only a tangential understanding of the AI technology OpenAI is building.
No horizon
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“OpenAI has — allegedly — hit “$10 billion in annualized revenue” (essentially the biggest month it can find, multiplied by 12), which is…not that much, really, considering it’s the most prominent company in the software world, with the biggest brand, and with the attention of the entirety of the world’s media.”
Our reading: OpenAI's alleged $10 billion in annualized revenue is not that much, really, given that it is the most prominent software company with the biggest brand and the whole world's media attention.
No horizon
Qualifier: allegedly
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“ChatGPT would’ve been a much smaller deal if Google had any interest in turning Google Search into a product that truly answered a query (as opposed to generating more of them to show more impressions to advertisers) — a nuanced search engine that took a user’s query and spat out a series of websites that might help answer said question rather than just summarising a few of them for an answer.”
Our reading: ChatGPT would have been a much smaller deal if Google had had any interest in turning Google Search into a product that truly answered queries.
No horizon
Only if: if Google had any interest in making Search truly answer queries
Source: Make Fun Of Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“while this might affect entry-level software engineers at some point”
Our reading: LLM coding tools might affect entry-level software engineering jobs at some point.
No horizon
Source: Sincerity Wins The War
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“These scare tactics exist to do one thing: increase the value of companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Salesforce, and anybody else outright lying about how “agents” will do our jobs, and to make it easier for the startups making these models to raise funds”
Our reading: AI job-loss scare tactics exist to do one thing: raise the value of Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Salesforce and others who are outright lying about agents doing our jobs, and make it easier for AI model startups to raise funds.
No horizon
Source: Sincerity Wins The War
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“suffice it to say that it’s highly doubtful that the military is going to rely on an LLM that hallucinates a significant portion of the time.”
Our reading: It is highly doubtful that the US military will rely on an LLM that hallucinates a significant portion of the time, such as Meta's Llama in the Anduril helmet.
No horizon
Qualifier: LLMs hallucinate a significant portion of the time
Source: Sincerity Wins The War
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“What’s crazy to me is that many of the problems with the AI bubble — as with the metaverse, as with the return to office, as with inflation and price gouging — are obvious if you actually use the things or participate in reality, but such things do not always fit with the editorial message.”
Our reading: Many of the problems with the AI bubble are obvious if you actually use the products or participate in reality, but they do not always fit the editorial message.
No horizon
Scope: many of
Source: Sincerity Wins The War
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“But the intention is to frame these models as “powerful” and to use the term “agents” to make this technology seem bigger than it is, and the people that control those terms are the AI companies themselves.”
Our reading: The intention behind calling these models 'powerful' and using the term 'agents' is to make the technology seem bigger than it is, and the AI companies themselves control those terms.
No horizon
Source: Sincerity Wins The War
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s be real: none of this is transformative.”
Our reading: None of the generative AI uses he just listed (transcription, translation, video editing, summarising, coding help, chatbots) is transformative.
No horizon
Scope: the uses just discussed
Source: Sincerity Wins The War
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It’s a disgrace, and I believe it either creates distrust in the media or drives people insane as they look at reality - where generative AI doesn’t really seem to be doing much - and get told something entirely different by the media.”
Our reading: In reality generative AI does not seem to be doing much, despite what the media says.
No horizon
Source: Sincerity Wins The War
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“By not saying how unlikely it is — again, without even saying the word “unlikely,” but allowing the audience to come to that conclusion by having the whole story — you give the audience the truth.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that acquiring Jony Ive's hardware startup will add $1 trillion in market value to OpenAI, as Sam Altman claimed.
No horizon
Source: Sincerity Wins The War
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The App Store is an abomination, your iPhone settings look like a fucking Escher painting, and in its desperation to follow the pack it shoved Apple Intelligence out the door — one of the most invasive and annoying pieces of software to ever grace a computer.”
Our reading: In its desperation to follow the pack, Apple shoved Apple Intelligence out the door, and it is one of the most invasive and annoying pieces of software ever to grace a computer.
No horizon
Source: Never Forget What They've Done
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“There is nothing about an LLM that feels like it’s built to provide a real service, other than some sort-of fraudulent copy of something else lacking its soul or utility.”
Our reading: Nothing about an LLM feels like it is built to provide a real service, other than as some sort-of fraudulent copy of something else that lacks that thing's soul or utility.
No horizon
Qualifier: feels like
Source: Never Forget What They've Done
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Even one of these projects would be considered a stretch.”
Our reading: Even one of OpenAI's planned projects (100M-unit device, Stargate Texas and UAE online, Broadcom chip) would be a stretch within the next year.
No horizon
Qualifier: the device, Stargate Texas and UAE, and the Broadcom chip
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“At this point, it isn't obvious how SoftBank affords the next part of that funding, and OpenAI using stock rather than cash to buy Jony Ive's company suggests that it doesn’t have much to spare.”
Our reading: OpenAI paying for Io in stock suggests it has little cash to spare, and it is unclear how SoftBank will afford its next OpenAI funding tranche.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“This deal reeks of desperation, and is, at best, a way for venture capitalists that feel bad about investing in Jony Ive's lack of productivity to get stock in OpenAI, a company that also doesn't build much product.”
Our reading: OpenAI's Io deal reeks of desperation and is, at best, a way for venture capitalists who feel bad about investing in Jony Ive's lack of productivity to get stock in OpenAI, which also doesn't build much product.
No horizon
Qualifier: at best
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“OpenAI is a loser of a company run by a career liar that cannot ship product, only further iterations of an increasingly-commoditized series of Large Language Models.”
Our reading: OpenAI is a loser of a company run by a career liar that cannot ship product, only further iterations of an increasingly commoditized series of large language models.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Microsoft shouldn't budge a fucking inch.”
Our reading: Microsoft should concede nothing to OpenAI in negotiations over its for-profit conversion.
No horizon
Qualifier: in OpenAI for-profit conversion negotiations
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I cannot express how unlikely it is that this happens. Silicon is even harder than hardware!”
Our reading: OpenAI is very unlikely to launch its custom AI chip with Broadcom in the next year.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“OpenAI didn't acquire Jony Ive's company to build anything — it did so that it could increase the valuation of OpenAI in the hopes that it can raise larger rounds of funding.”
Our reading: OpenAI bought Io to raise its valuation and secure larger funding rounds, not to build anything.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI is revolting both in how overstated its abilities are and in how it continually tests how low a standard someone will take for a product, both in its outputs and in the desperate companies trying to integrate it into everything, and its proliferation throughout society and organizations is already fundamentally harmful.”
Our reading: Generative AI's abilities are overstated and its spread through society and organizations is already fundamentally harmful.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI doesn’t do enough to actually help us be better at our jobs, but it gives a good enough impression of something useful so that it can convince someone really stupid that doesn’t understand what you do that they don’t need you, sometimes.”
Our reading: Generative AI doesn't do enough to actually help people be better at their jobs, but it gives a good enough impression of usefulness that it can, sometimes, convince someone really stupid who doesn't understand what you do that they don't need you.
No horizon
Qualifier: can ... sometimes
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“And AI is a symptom of a reckoning of this stupidity and hubris.”
Our reading: AI is a symptom of big tech's stupidity and hubris.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“All because Microsoft wanted generative AI in Bing. What a fucking waste!”
Our reading: Microsoft's spending on OpenAI, done because Microsoft wanted generative AI in Bing, is a waste.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And something like generative AI was inevitable: an industry claiming to change the world that never really does so, full of businesses that don’t function as businesses, full of flimflam and half-truths used to impress people who will likely never interact with it, or do so in only a passing way.”
Our reading: The generative AI industry claims to change the world but doesn't, and is full of businesses that don't function as businesses.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“NVIDIA is defined by massive peaks and valleys, as it jumps on trends and bandwagons at the right time, despite knowing that these bandwagons always come to an abrupt halt.”
Our reading: NVIDIA is defined by massive peaks and valleys, as it jumps on trends and bandwagons at the right time despite knowing that these bandwagons always come to an abrupt halt.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“To be clear, I am deeply unconvinced that Nadella actually runs his life in this way, but if he does, Microsoft’s board should fire him immediately.”
Our reading: If Satya Nadella really outsources his work and life to Copilot as described, Microsoft's board should fire him immediately.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Nadella really runs his life through Copilot
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“OpenAI's "Deep Research" wows professional Business Idiot Ezra Klein because he doesn't seem to realize that part of research is the research itself, not just the output, as you learn about stuff as you research a topic, allowing you to come to a conclusion.”
Our reading: OpenAI's Deep Research wows Ezra Klein because he doesn't seem to realize that part of research is the research process itself, through which you learn and reach a conclusion, not just the output.
No horizon
Scope: Ezra Klein
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“a nonsensical series of words to justify a $16.9 million-a-year single-vendor no-bid contract to a product that is best known as either a shitty search engine or a way to cheat at college.”
Our reading: Cal State Chancellor Mildred Garcia's stated justification for a $16.9 million-a-year single-vendor no-bid ChatGPT contract was a nonsensical series of words, and ChatGPT is best known as either a shitty search engine or a way to cheat at college.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Artificial intelligence is the ultimate panacea for the Business Idiot — a tool that gives an impression of productivity with far more production than the Business Idiot themselves.”
Our reading: Artificial intelligence is the ultimate panacea for the Business Idiot, a tool that gives an impression of productivity with far more production than the Business Idiot themselves.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It's simple: they neither know nor care what the customer wants, barely know how their businesses function, barely know what their products do, and barely understand what their workers are doing, meaning that generative AI feels magical, because it does an impression of somebody doing a job, which is an accurate way of describing how most executives and middle managers operate.”
Our reading: Companies push generative AI despite customers disliking it and it not really working because executives don't understand customers, businesses, products or workers, so AI's impression of doing a job seems magical to them.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In a civil society, Zuckerberg would be ousted immediately for creating a pedophilic chatbot, — instead, four days after the story ran, everyone cheered Meta’s better-than-expected quarterly earnings.”
Our reading: In a civil society, Zuckerberg would be ousted immediately for creating a pedophilic chatbot; instead, four days after the story ran, everyone cheered Meta's better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
No horizon
Qualifier: in a civil society
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“They just don’t do enough, almost by design, and we’re watching companies desperately try and contort them into something, anything that works, pretending so fucking hard they’ll stake their entire futures on the idea.”
Our reading: LLMs have some uses but don't do enough, and companies are desperately trying to make them work.
No horizon
Qualifier: while conceding LLMs do something and have some commercial use
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“None of this ever resembled "artificial general intelligence," and if I'm honest, very little of it seems to even suggest it's a functional industry.”
Our reading: Generative AI has never resembled AGI and barely suggests a functional industry.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Yes there is a degree here of marketing, of partnerships, of word of mouth, of some degree of utility, but remove the non-stop free media campaign and ChatGPT would've peetered out by now along with this stupid fucking bubble.”
Our reading: ChatGPT's popularity is mainly due to nonstop media coverage; without it, ChatGPT and the AI bubble would have petered out.
No horizon
Qualifier: absent non-stop media coverage
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In fact, I think we have reason to worry about whether OpenAI even makes its current projections.”
Our reading: OpenAI may fail to meet its current 2025 revenue projections.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Oh, By The Way, The Bubble Might Be Bursting”
Our reading: The generative AI bubble might be bursting.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These companies don't care about your safety and they don't have any way to get to AGI.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic don't care about your safety and don't have any way to get to AGI.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI has never had the kind of meaningful business returns or utility that actually underpins something meaningful, but it has enough to make people give it a try.”
Our reading: Generative AI has never had the kind of meaningful business returns or utility that underpins something meaningful, but it has enough to make people give it a try.
No horizon
Qualifier: the kind that underpins something meaningful
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The longer this bubble inflates - the longer everybody pretends - the worse the consequences will be.”
Our reading: The longer the AI bubble keeps inflating, the worse the consequences of its collapse will be.
No horizon
Qualifier: the longer the bubble inflates
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI is a remarkable con — a just-good-enough simulacrum of human expression to get it past the gatekeepers in finance and the media, knowing that neither will apply a second gear of critical thinking beyond "huh guess we're doing AI now."”
Our reading: Generative AI is a con that passes just well enough to fool finance and the media.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If Amazon is only making $5 billion in revenue from the literal only shiny new thing it has, sold on the world's premier cloud platform, at a time when businesses are hungry and desperate to integrate AI, then there's little chance this suddenly turns into a remarkable revenue-driver.”
Our reading: If Amazon is only making $5 billion in revenue from AI, its only shiny new thing, sold on the world's premier cloud platform while businesses are desperate to integrate AI, there is little chance Amazon's AI business suddenly turns into a remarkable revenue driver.
No horizon
Only if: if Amazon is only making $5 billion in revenue from AI
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“With all its data and all its talent, Google has put the laziest version of a Large Language Model on top of a questionably-functional search product as a means of impressing shareholders.”
Our reading: Despite all its data and talent, Google has put the laziest version of a Large Language Model on top of a questionably-functional search product as a means of impressing shareholders.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It's bullshit, but it captured the hearts and minds of AI boosters because it vaguely suggests that somehow Large Language Models and their associated technology will become something entirely different.”
Our reading: The AI 2027 report's suggestion that LLMs will become something entirely different, such as a self-teaching agent, is bullshit.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Nobody has ever raised as much as OpenAI needs to, and based on the sheer amount of difficulty that SoftBank is having in raising the funds to meet the lower tranche ($10bn) of its commitment, it may simply not be possible for this company to continue.”
Our reading: It may not be possible for OpenAI to continue as a company given its unprecedented funding needs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As a result, SoftBank will likely have to start selling off parts of its valuable holdings in companies like Alibaba and ARM, or, worse still, parts of its ailing investments from its Vision Fund, resulting in a material loss on its underwater deals.”
Our reading: As a result of its OpenAI funding obligations and borrowing constraints, SoftBank will likely have to start selling parts of its holdings in companies like Alibaba and ARM, or parts of its ailing Vision Fund investments, resulting in a material loss on its underwater deals.
No horizon
Qualifier: as a result of funding OpenAI under its borrowing constraints
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“CoreWeave will likely collapse under the weight of its abominable debt, which will lead to a 7%+ revenue drop for NVIDIA at a time when revenue growth has already begun to slow.”
Our reading: After an OpenAI collapse, CoreWeave will likely collapse under its debt, causing NVIDIA a revenue drop of 7% or more.
No horizon
Only if: following OpenAI's collapse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“I can see OpenAI’s failure having a similar systemic effect.”
Our reading: OpenAI's failure could have a systemic effect on tech and markets similar to Lehman Brothers' collapse.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI fails
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“OpenAI has the only meaningful userbase in generative AI, and this entire hype-cycle has been driven by its success, meaning any deterioration (or collapse) of OpenAI will tell the market what I've been saying for over a year: that generative AI is not the next hyper-growth market, and its underlying economics do not make sense.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not the next hyper-growth market and its economics don't make sense; any deterioration of OpenAI will reveal this to the market.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI deteriorates or collapses
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In simpler terms, even if OpenAI wasn’t running out of money, even if OpenAI wasn’t horrifyingly unprofitable, it also may not have enough GPUs to continue providing its services in a reliable manner.”
Our reading: OpenAI may not have enough GPUs to keep providing its services reliably.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It's reasonable to believe that OpenAI will, as a result, need to raise in excess of $40 billion in funding a year, though it's reasonable to believe that it will need to raise more along the lines of $50 billion or more a year until it reaches profitability.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely need to raise more than $40 billion, probably $50 billion or more, every year until it is profitable.
No horizon
Qualifier: until it reaches profitability
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In the event that its costs are as severe as reporting suggests, it’s likely the company will find itself needing to raise more capital — whether through equity (or the weird sort-of equity that it issues) or through debt.”
Our reading: If OpenAI's costs are as severe as reported, it will likely need to raise more capital through equity or debt.
No horizon
Only if: if costs are as severe as reported
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“More likely, Microsoft got what it needed out of OpenAI, which has reached the limit of the models it can develop, and which Microsoft already retains the IP of.”
Our reading: More likely than a desire for OpenAI's independence, Microsoft pulled back because it got what it needed out of OpenAI, which has reached the limit of the models it can develop and whose IP Microsoft already retains.
No horizon
Qualifier: more likely
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It's reasonable to believe that OpenAI will raise more debt this year, and I'd estimate it does so to the tune of around $5 billion or $6 billion.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely raise around $5-6 billion more in debt in 2025.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“It's unclear how many of the Blackwell GPUs that Oracle has had to purchase in advance, but in the event of any kind of financial collapse at OpenAI, Oracle would likely take a loss of at least a billion dollars, if not several billion dollars.”
Our reading: If OpenAI collapses financially, Oracle will likely lose at least $1 billion, possibly several billion.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI suffers a financial collapse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Though downtime might be an obvious choice, capacity issues at OpenAI will likely manifest in hard limits on what free users can do, some of which I've documented above.”
Our reading: OpenAI's capacity issues will likely show up as hard limits on what free users can do.
No horizon
Qualifier: due to capacity issues
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It isn't comfortable to continually have to explain to people who are all saying "AI is the future" that the majority of what they are discussing is fictional”
Our reading: Most of what people saying 'AI is the future' discuss is fictional.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Be optimistic if you'd like, but engage with the truth when you do so.”
Our reading: AI optimists should engage with the facts.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“once that narrative fully takes hold, I fear a cascade of events that gores a hole in the side of the stock market and leads to tens of thousands of people losing their jobs.”
Our reading: Once the narrative that only NVIDIA profits from generative AI takes hold, a cascade could badly hit the stock market and cost tens of thousands of jobs.
No horizon
Only if: once the no-profit narrative fully takes hold
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“To choose to believe that this will "all just work out" at this point is willful ignorance and actively refusing to engage with reality.”
Our reading: At this point, choosing to believe that the AI industry's situation will all just work out is willful ignorance and an active refusal to engage with reality.
No horizon
Qualifier: at this point
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“and that generative AI has created a kind of capitalist death cult where nobody wants to admit that they're not making any money”
Our reading: Generative AI has created a kind of capitalist death cult in which nobody wants to admit that they are not making any money.
No horizon
Qualifier: a kind of
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Cautious optimism allows Roose to learn as little as necessary to write his column, knowing that the market wants AI to work, even as facts scream that it doesn't.”
Our reading: The facts show that AI doesn't work, even though the market wants it to.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I, personally, believe that there should be.”
Our reading: There should be repercussions for journalists being too optimistic about technologies like AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“What we are witnessing is a systemic failure, not the beginnings of a revolution.”
Our reading: The generative AI boom is a systemic failure, not the start of a revolution.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I fear that we've built our economy on top of NVIDIA, which is dependent on the continued investment in GPUs from companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, one of which has materially pulled back from data center expansion.”
Our reading: Zitron fears that we have built our economy on top of NVIDIA, which depends on continued GPU investment from companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, one of which has materially pulled back from data center expansion.
No horizon
Qualifier: I fear
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In reality, this company is a dog, and will show the markets exactly how little money or growth is left in generative AI.”
Our reading: CoreWeave is a dog and will show the markets exactly how little money or growth is left in generative AI.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Which makes sense, because the chances of Microsoft or Meta becoming insolvent in the immediate future are slim, whereas OpenAI’s entire existence depends on its ability to raise more money than any startup in history, indefinitely, while also never making a profit.”
Our reading: OpenAI's entire existence depends on its ability to raise more money than any startup in history, indefinitely, while never making a profit, whereas Microsoft or Meta are unlikely to become insolvent in the immediate future.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb