Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 6 of 13
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1290)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 6 of 13: claims 501 to 600 of 1290, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Large Language Models perform an impression of automating that process, but for the most part force you, the user, to do the shit that matters, even if that means “be responsible for the code that it puts out.””
Our reading: LLMs perform an impression of automating the process of building software, but for the most part force the user to do the things that matter, even if that only means being responsible for the code they put out.
No horizon
Qualifier: for the most part
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Similarly, I’m not sure anybody would’ve been anywhere near as excited if OpenAI and Anthropic hadn’t intentionally sold them a product that was impossible to support long-term.”
Our reading: The author is not sure anybody would have been anywhere near as excited about LLMs if OpenAI and Anthropic had not intentionally sold them a product that was impossible to support long-term.
No horizon
Qualifier: I'm not sure
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This also suggests that Anthropic’s (and OpenAI’s by extension) business model is fundamentally flawed.”
Our reading: Anthropic's inability to serve its paying customers at its current infrastructure scale, while still burning money, suggests that Anthropic's business model, and by extension OpenAI's, is fundamentally flawed.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“LLMs are not “artificial intelligence” at all.”
Our reading: LLMs are not artificial intelligence.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Having two sets of earnings is extremely dodgy! Especially when the difference between them is billions of dollars.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic showing investors two sets of earnings, with and without training costs, is extremely dodgy, especially when the difference between them is billions of dollars.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially when the difference is billions of dollars
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“In any case, TokenMaxxing is not real demand, but an economic form of AI psychosis.”
Our reading: TokenMaxxing is not real demand for AI.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Yet the “early days” argument is inherently deceptive.”
Our reading: The argument that AI is in 'the early days' is inherently deceptive.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“At the end of this era, I think we’re all going to have to have a conversation about the innate credulity of the business and tech media, and how often that was co-opted to help the rich get richer.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks that at the end of this era everyone will have to have a conversation about the innate credulity of the business and tech media and how often it was co-opted to help the rich get richer.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“There’s also one other option: that Silicon Valley is effectively subsidizing Anthropic through an industry-wide token-burning psychosis. And based on some recent news, there’s a chance that’s the case.”
Our reading: There is a chance Anthropic's revenue is being propped up by industry-wide wasteful token burning.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Probably the weirdest thing about this entire era is how nobody wants to talk about the fact that AI isn’t actually doing very much, and that AI agents are just chatbots plugged into an API.”
Our reading: AI isn't actually doing very much, and AI agents are just chatbots plugged into an API.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“If everybody was forced to pay their actual costs for LLM coding, I do not believe for a second that we’d have anywhere near the amount of mewling, submissive and desperate press around these models.”
Our reading: Zitron firmly believes that if everybody had to pay the actual costs of LLM coding, there would be nowhere near as much mewling, submissive and desperate press about these models.
No horizon
Qualifier: if everybody was forced to pay their actual costs for LLM coding (counterfactual)
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Nevertheless, something is up with Anthropic’s revenue story.”
Our reading: Something is off with Anthropic's revenue story.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Worse still, hyperscalers like Meta and Amazon are allowing non-technical people to ship code themselves, which is creating a crisis throughout the tech industry.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers letting non-technical people ship LLM code is creating a crisis in the tech industry.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“In any case, anytime that somebody tells you that we’re in “the early days of AI” has either been conned or is in the process of conning you, as they’re using it to deflect from issues of efficacy or underlying economic weakness.”
Our reading: People claiming it is the early days of AI are conned or conning, deflecting from efficacy and economic weakness.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Saying it’s “the early days” also doesn’t really make sense when faced with the rotten and incredibly unprofitable economics of AI.”
Our reading: Saying AI is in 'the early days' doesn't really make sense given the rotten and incredibly unprofitable economics of AI.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“They do not have ideas, nor do they create unique concepts — everything they create is based on training data fed to it that was first scraped from Stack Overflow, Github and whatever code repositories Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have been able to get their hands on.”
Our reading: Coding LLMs have no ideas or unique concepts; all output derives from scraped training data.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I was not reached out to by or otherwise acknowledged by any other outlets, and every outlet has continued to repeat that OpenAI “made $13 billion in 2025,” despite that being very unlikely given that it would have required it to have made $8 billion in a single quarter.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely OpenAI made $13 billion in revenue in 2025, as that would require $8 billion in one quarter.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“if Anthropic actually made $2.5 billion in a month — we’ll find out when it files its S-1! — it likely came not from genuine growth or a surge of adoption, but in its existing products suddenly costing a shit ton more because of how they’re engineered.”
Our reading: If Anthropic really made $2.5B in a month, it likely came from products costing more per use, not genuine growth or adoption.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Anthropic actually made $2.5 billion in a month
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Though I cannot say for certain, both of these situations suggest that Anthropic and OpenAI are misleading their investors, the media and the general public.”
Our reading: Revenue discrepancies suggest, though not certainly, that OpenAI and Anthropic are misleading investors, media, and the public.
No horizon
Qualifier: cannot say for certain
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Compliance reporting? Summarizing or pulling documents from places, much like any LLM can do, other than the fact that it’ll likely get shit wrong, which is bad for compliance.”
Our reading: Anthropic/Infosys AI agents for compliance reporting will likely produce errors.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Yes, I know it’s a “stylized fact” or whatever, but that’s what he said, and I think that their IPO might have a rude surprise in the form of a non-EBITDA margin calculation that makes even the most-ardent booster see red.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks Anthropic's IPO might bring a rude surprise in the form of a non-EBITDA margin calculation that makes even the most ardent booster see red.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“An S-1 - one of the filings a company makes before going public - is an audited document, and I imagine the whimsical mathematics that OpenAI engages in - such as, per The Wall Street Journal, calculating profitability without training compute - might not match up with what actual financiers crave.”
Our reading: He imagines that OpenAI's whimsical mathematics, such as calculating profitability without training compute (per The Wall Street Journal), might not match up with what actual financiers crave, given that an S-1 is an audited document.
No horizon
Qualifier: given that an S-1 is an audited document
Source: News: OpenAI CFO Doesn't Believe Company Ready For IPO, Unsure Revenue Will Support Commitments
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Though I am entirely guessing here, I imagine Friar sees something within OpenAi's finances that give her pause.”
Our reading: He guesses that OpenAI's CFO sees something in OpenAI's finances that worries her.
No horizon
Qualifier: self-described guess
Source: News: OpenAI CFO Doesn't Believe Company Ready For IPO, Unsure Revenue Will Support Commitments
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It's clear that both OpenAI and Anthropic are rushing toward a public offering so that their CEOs can cash out”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic are rushing toward IPOs so that their CEOs can cash out.
No horizon
Source: News: OpenAI CFO Doesn't Believe Company Ready For IPO, Unsure Revenue Will Support Commitments
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It is extremely strange that the CFO of a company doesn't report to the CEO of a company, and even more strange that the CFO is directly saying "we are not ready for IPO" as its CEO jams his foot on the accelerator.”
Our reading: It is extremely strange that OpenAI's CFO doesn't report to its CEO, and even more strange that the CFO is directly saying the company is not ready for an IPO while the CEO pushes hard toward one.
No horizon
Qualifier: CFO's view as reported by The Information via a person who spoke to her
Source: News: OpenAI CFO Doesn't Believe Company Ready For IPO, Unsure Revenue Will Support Commitments
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Anthropic claimed that this was simply the expiration of holiday rate limits, but in reality, this is all part of Anthropic’s continual manipulation of rate limits to con customers into buying Claude subscriptions that decay in value.”
Our reading: Anthropic continually manipulates rate limits to lure customers into Claude subscriptions that lose value.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The collapse of a data center already in construction, but before it’s finished.”
Our reading: The collapse of a data center under construction would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: an in-construction data center collapses
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“I think there’re a few ways this goes:”
Our reading: Anthropic's rate limit situation could play out in a few ways.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“While it’s really easy to make fun of people obsessed with LLMs, I want to be clear that Anthropic and OpenAI are inherently abusive companies that have built businesses on theft, deception and exploitation.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI are inherently abusive companies that have built their businesses on theft, deception and exploitation.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The Further Collapse of Stargate Abilene: If anything happens to the construction of OpenAI’s flagship data center (being built by Oracle) in Abilene Texas, you know shit is getting bad.”
Our reading: Any problem with construction of OpenAI's Stargate Abilene data center would signal serious trouble for the AI bubble.
No horizon
Only if: problems with Abilene construction
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“To be clear, no AI company should have ever sold a monthly subscription, as there was never a point at which the economics made sense.”
Our reading: AI companies should never have sold monthly subscriptions because the economics never made sense.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The collapse of a data center deal that has yet to commence construction.”
Our reading: The collapse of a data center deal before construction would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: a pre-construction data center deal collapses
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Anthropic will announce that it’s “fixed the bug” (IE: eased rate limits it intentionally set) and apologize to the community, prolonging the inevitable. Rate limits will continue to decay over time, just at a slower pace.”
Our reading: One possible outcome: Anthropic eases limits, calls it a bug fix, and apologizes, while limits keep decaying more slowly.
No horizon
Qualifier: one of several possible scenarios
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Anthropic keeps the limits where they are, and we hit a new normal that makes everybody really mad.”
Our reading: Another possible outcome: Anthropic keeps the current limits as a new normal that angers users.
No horizon
Qualifier: one of several possible scenarios
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Yet had these companies actually charged their real costs, nobody would have bothered with AI, because even with these highly-subsidized subscriptions, AI still hasn’t delivered meaningful productivity benefits”
Our reading: Had AI companies charged their real costs, nobody would have bothered with AI, because even with highly subsidised subscriptions AI still hasn't delivered meaningful productivity benefits.
No horizon
Qualifier: had these companies charged their real costs
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Any discussion of layoffs at AI companies.”
Our reading: Discussion of layoffs at AI companies would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: layoffs discussed at AI companies
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Any further price increases or service degradations from AI startups, such as Cursor, Perplexity, Harvey, Lovable or Replit.”
Our reading: Further price increases or service cuts at AI startups would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: further price increases or service degradations
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Price hikes and product changes are likely to accelerate in the next few months as things get desperate.”
Our reading: AI price hikes and product changes will likely accelerate over the next few months.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The collapse of an already-constructed data center.”
Our reading: The collapse of a completed data center would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: a completed data center collapses
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I’d argue that annual subscriptions to these services amount to, if not fraud, a level of consumer deception that deserves legal action and regulatory involvement.”
Our reading: Annual AI subscriptions are consumer deception that deserves legal action and regulatory involvement.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Based on the reactions of their users, I don’t really see how the AI labs — or AI startups, for that matter — fix this problem.”
Our reading: Based on users' reactions, he doesn't really see how AI labs or AI startups can fix the problem of users who won't tolerate rate limits and price increases.
No horizon
Qualifier: based on the reactions of their users
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“I think everybody in the AI industry has deluded themselves into believing they have the mandate of Heaven.”
Our reading: He thinks everybody in the AI industry has deluded themselves into believing they have the mandate of Heaven.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Even if this week’s rate limits are an overcorrection, one has to imagine they resemble the future of Anthropic’s products, and are indicative of a larger pattern of decay in the value of its subscriptions.”
Our reading: Anthropic's current rate limits likely preview its future and reflect ongoing decay in subscription value.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if this week's limits are an overcorrection
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Every single person responsible must be held accountable, especially for the calamities to come as lazily-managed software companies see the consequences of building their software on sand.”
Our reading: Everyone responsible for pushing generative code must be held accountable for the calamities to come.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The arrest of Liaw has, it seems, ruffled some feathers in Washington, and I would not be shocked to see Huang sat before a congressional inquiry at some point.”
Our reading: Jensen Huang may at some point be called before a congressional inquiry about GPU diversion to China.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I imagine Microsoft has successfully brought online about 235MW of power for Fairwater.”
Our reading: Microsoft has probably brought only about 235MW of power online for its Fairwater Wisconsin data center.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“But what I do know is that big tech is setting itself up for crisis after crisis, especially when Anthropic and OpenAI stop subsidizing their models to the tune of allowing people to spend $2500 or more on a $200-a-month subscription.”
Our reading: Big tech is setting itself up for crisis after crisis, especially when Anthropic and OpenAI stop subsidizing their models to the extent of letting people spend $2,500 or more on a $200-a-month subscription.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially when Anthropic and OpenAI stop subsidizing their models
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“In the end, everything about AI is built on lies.”
Our reading: Everything about AI is built on lies.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While the indictment isn’t specific as to the breakdown, it confirms that some Blackwell GPUs made it to China, and I’d wager quite a few.”
Our reading: Likely quite a few NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs were smuggled to China.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“2025’s $178.5 billion in US-based data center deals doesn’t appear to be resulting in any immediate (or even future) benefit to anybody involved.”
Our reading: The $178.5 billion of US data center deals in 2025 does not appear to benefit anyone involved.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The entire AI bubble is built on a vague sense of inevitability — that if everybody just believes hard enough that none of this can ever, ever go wrong that at some point all of the very obvious problems will just go away.”
Our reading: The AI bubble rests on a vague belief that it is inevitable and that its obvious problems will go away.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Furthermore, if the supply of AI compute is a bottleneck, this suggests that when (or if) that bottleneck is ever cleared, there will suddenly be a massive supply glut, lowering the overall value of the data centers in progress…”
Our reading: If AI compute supply is a bottleneck, this suggests that when (or if) the bottleneck is ever cleared there will suddenly be a massive supply glut that lowers the value of data centers in progress, which are all filled with Blackwell GPUs that will be two or three years old by the time those data centers are finally turned on.
No horizon
Only if: if the supply of AI compute is a bottleneck
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Generative code is a digital ecological disaster, one that will take years to repair thanks to company remits to write as much code as fast as possible.”
Our reading: The damage from generative code is a disaster that will take years to repair.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Assuming that Vera Rubin actually ships in 2026, it’s reasonable to believe that people will be installing these things well into 2028, if not further, and that’s assuming everything doesn’t collapse by then.”
Our reading: If Vera Rubin ships in 2026, it will probably still be getting installed well into 2028 or later, unless things collapse first.
No horizon
Only if: Vera Rubin ships in 2026
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The problem is that while LLMs can write “all” code, that doesn’t mean the code is good, or that somebody can read the code and understand its intention (as these models do not think), or that having a lot of code is a good thing both in the present and in the future of any company built using generative code.”
Our reading: LLM-written code is not necessarily good or understandable, and LLMs do not think.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The entire AI bubble is a god damn mirage. Every single “multi-gigawatt” data center you hear about is a pipedream,”
Our reading: The AI bubble is a mirage and every announced multi-gigawatt data center is a pipedream funded by private credit.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Despite the furious (and exhausting) marketing campaign around “the power of AI code,” I believe that these events are just the beginning of the true consequences of AI coding tools: the slow destruction of the tech industry’s software stack.”
Our reading: The Meta and Amazon incidents are only the start of AI coding tools slowly destroying the tech industry's software stack.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The tech industry has taken advantage of an understandable lack of knowledge about construction or power timelines in the media to pump out endless stories about “data center capacity in progress” as a means of obfuscating an ever-growing scandal: that hundreds of billions of NVIDIA GPUs got sold to go in projects that may never be built.”
Our reading: Hundreds of billions of dollars of NVIDIA GPUs were sold for data center projects that may never be built, and the industry obscures this through media stories.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s start with a simple one: AI boosters are no longer allowed to explain what’s good about AI using the future tense.”
Our reading: AI boosters should not justify AI by pointing to future capabilities, only present ones.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI claims it made $13.1 billion in revenue in 2025 and “only” lost $8 billion — but those numbers seem unlikely considering my report from November of last year that had OpenAI at $4.3 billion in revenue on $8.67 billion of inference costs through September 2025, and this is accrual accounting, which means these are from the quarters in question.”
Our reading: OpenAI's claim of $13.1 billion in 2025 revenue and only an $8 billion loss is probably inaccurate, given $4.3 billion revenue against $8.67 billion inference costs through September 2025.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Nevertheless, AI has become one of the largest cons in history, bought and sold based on stuff it can’t do (but might do, one day, at a non-specific time), constantly ignoring the blatant swindles and acidic economics that are only made possible with regulators and the media and the markets piloted by people that don’t know or want to know what’s actually happening.”
Our reading: AI is one of history's largest cons, sold on things it cannot do.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Four fucking years of this and we’re still talking about this stuff in riddles, mostly because it’s a terrible business.”
Our reading: After four years, AI revenue at public software companies is still discussed in riddles, mostly because it's a terrible business.
No horizon
Qualifier: mostly
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While I must be clear that Anthropic can limit Claude subscriptions, as can OpenAI limit ChatGPT, I doubt either can do so with precision.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI can limit subscription usage but probably cannot do so with precision.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“However you may feel about Amazon as a service, its engineers are likely indicative of corporate engineering on some level, which is making me wonder if we’re not going to have some real problems in software development in the next few years as a result.”
Our reading: AI-assisted coding may cause real problems across software development in the next few years.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It’s a deeply cynical con. Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta are paying for these contracts because they don’t reflect as assets on the balance sheet, all while moving the risk onto the AI compute company — and if the AI company misses a deadline, the hyperscaler can walk away.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers sign neocloud compute contracts to keep the assets off their balance sheets and push the risk onto AI compute companies, keeping the right to walk away if deadlines slip.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“If you’re excited based on the potential, you’re not excited about technology, you’re excited about marketing.”
Our reading: Excitement about AI's potential rather than its current abilities is excitement about marketing, not technology.
No horizon
Qualifier: if based on potential
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“In both cases, Anthropic (and OpenAI, for that matter) is screwed.”
Our reading: Whether they subsidize subscribers on purpose or cannot control compute costs, Anthropic and OpenAI are in an untenable economic position on subscriptions.
No horizon
Qualifier: whether subsidizing intentionally or unable to limit compute
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I know, that doesn’t mean anything, and all Block is doing is AI-washing, which is when a company uses AI as a scapegoat to justify laying people off.”
Our reading: All Block is doing with its 4000 layoffs is AI-washing, meaning it is using AI as a scapegoat to justify laying people off.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Direct labor and parts are considered part of the calculation of gross margin, and spending on training — both the data and the process of training itself — are absolutely meaningful, and to leave them out is an act of deception.”
Our reading: AI labs' training costs belong in gross margin, and leaving them out (as Anthropic and OpenAI do) is deceptive.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I think that these articles would’ve been much less positive if the reporters were even aware of the actual costs.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks the positive articles about Claude Code would have been much less positive if the reporters had even been aware of the actual costs.
No horizon
Only if: if the reporters were even aware of the actual costs
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Every time you report on these deals should include a timeline.”
Our reading: Every media report on a data center deal should include a realistic construction timeline.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The problem is that the markets have AI psychosis, and thus believe anything to do with data centers is a natural winner.”
Our reading: Markets have 'AI psychosis' and therefore believe anything to do with data centers is a natural winner.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This is a huge problem for both Anthropic and OpenAI, as their scurrilous growth-lust means that they’ve done everything they can to get customers used to paying a single monthly cost that directly obfuscates the cost of doing business.”
Our reading: In chasing growth, Anthropic and OpenAI got customers used to flat monthly prices that hide their real costs, which is a huge problem for both.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I also think that Anthropic and OpenAI have deliberately used their subscriptions as a means of conning the media into conceptualizing AI as far more affordable than it actually is.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks Anthropic and OpenAI have deliberately used their subscriptions to con the media into seeing AI as far more affordable than it actually is.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It appears one of the most prominent startups in the valley has misled everybody about how much it makes, or if it has not, that somebody else is perpetuating a misinformation campaign.”
Our reading: Anthropic appears to have misled everyone about its revenue, or someone else is spreading misinformation about it.
No horizon
Qualifier: or someone else is running a misinformation campaign
Source: The Beginning Of History
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And even in the very, very unlikely event that things somehow quickly return to whatever level of “normal” you’d call the world before the conflict started, even brief shocks to the financial plumbing are enough to destabilize an already-fractured hype cycle.”
Our reading: Even a brief financial shock from the war is enough to destabilize the already-fractured AI hype cycle.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if things quickly return to normal
Source: The Beginning Of History
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“My sources in Abilene also tell me that the expansion fell apart due to Oracle’s dissatisfaction with the revenue it was making on buildings one and two, and that a bidding war was taking place between Meta and Google for the future capacity.”
Our reading: The Stargate Abilene expansion with OpenAI fell apart because Oracle was dissatisfied with revenue from buildings one and two.
No horizon
Qualifier: per his sources
Source: The Beginning Of History
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I am not stating that it is lying, but I do believe annualized revenue is a deliberate attempt to obfuscate things and give the vibe that the business is healthier than it is. I also do not think it’s likely that Anthropic made 23% of its lifetime revenue in the space of a month.”
Our reading: While not stating that Anthropic is lying, he believes annualized revenue is a deliberate attempt to obfuscate things and make the business seem healthier than it is, and he does not think it likely that Anthropic made 23% of its lifetime revenue in a single month.
No horizon
Qualifier: I am not stating that it is lying
Source: The Beginning Of History
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“That, and it appears that both of these companies are deliberately obfuscating their real numbers as a means of making themselves look better.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic appear to deliberately obscure their real numbers to make themselves look better.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This suggests a fundamental weakness in the business model of renting out GPUs, which brings into question the value of NVIDIA’s $68.13bn in Q4 FY2026 revenue, or indeed, Coreweave’s $66.8bn revenue backlog.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's results suggest a fundamental weakness in the GPU-rental business model, which brings into question the value of NVIDIA's $68.13bn Q4 FY2026 revenue and CoreWeave's $66.8bn revenue backlog.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While I think it’s far more likely that the US government itself shuts the door on Anthropic working with it for the foreseeable future even without the supply chain risk designation”
Our reading: The US government is more likely to stop working with Anthropic for the foreseeable future, even without the designation, than to make contractors cut it off.
No horizon
Qualifier: even without the supply chain risk designation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In my mind, it’s far more likely that OpenAI’s losses were in excess of $10bn or even $20bn, especially when you factor in that OpenAI is paying an average of $1.5 million in yearly stock based compensation, per the Wall Street Journal.”
Our reading: OpenAI's 2025 losses were probably over $10bn, possibly over $20bn, not the reported $8bn.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It also suggests CoreWeave's customers — which include Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft (for OpenAI), Google, and a $6.3bn backstop from NVIDIA for any unsold capacity through 2032 — are paying like absolute crap.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's falling revenue per megawatt suggests that its customers, which include Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google and an NVIDIA backstop for unsold capacity, are paying very poorly.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests, inferred from revenue per megawatt
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In reality, Claude is likely being used to go through a bunch of images and to answer questions about particular scenarios. There is very little specialized military training data, and I imagine many of the demands for “full access to powerful AI” have come as a result of Amodei and Altman’s bloviating about the “incredible power of AI.””
Our reading: Claude is likely being used to go through images and answer questions about particular scenarios, there is very little specialized military training data, and he imagines many of the demands for 'full access to powerful AI' came from Amodei and Altman's bloviating about AI's power.
No horizon
Scope: many of the demands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“There’s also another possible answer: I think OpenAI is lying to the media, because it knows the media won’t think too hard about the numbers or compare them.”
Our reading: He offers as another possible answer that he thinks OpenAI is lying to the media because it knows the media won't think hard about or compare its numbers.
No horizon
Qualifier: another possible answer
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The military’s demands were for “all lawful uses,” though I don’t think Anthropic really gives a shit about whether the war in Iran is legal, because if it did it would have shut down the chatbot rather than supported the conflict.”
Our reading: He does not think Anthropic really cares whether the war in Iran is legal, because if it did it would have shut down the chatbot rather than supported the conflict.
No horizon
Qualifier: I don't think
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“None of this would be possible without the consistent repetition of the falsehoods peddled by OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Our reading: Military reliance on chatbots would not be possible without the falsehoods OpenAI and Anthropic keep repeating about AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The numbers do not make any sense when you actually put them together, and the reason that these companies continue to do this is that they’re confident that these outlets will never say a thing, or cover for the discrepancies by saying “these are projections!””
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's leaked numbers are inconsistent with each other, and they keep leaking them because they expect the media not to challenge the discrepancies.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Nothing about the military’s use of Claude makes it more useful or powerful than it was before — they’re probably just loading files into it and asking it long questions about things and going “huh” at the end.”
Our reading: Military use does not make Claude more capable; the military is probably just loading files into it and asking questions.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s stop pretending that Anthropic is some sort of ethical paragon! It’s the same old shit!”
Our reading: People should stop pretending Anthropic is some sort of ethical paragon, because it is the same old shit.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“All of this is to say that Altman definitely, absolutely loves war, and wants OpenAI to make money off of it”
Our reading: Altman definitely, absolutely loves war and wants OpenAI to make money off of it.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Both of them are willing and able to provide technology that will surveil or kill people, and while Amodei may have blushed at something to do with autonomous weapons or domestic surveillance, neither appear to have an issue with the actual harms that their models perpetuate.”
Our reading: Altman and Amodei are both willing and able to provide technology that will surveil or kill people, and although Amodei may have balked at autonomous weapons or domestic surveillance, neither appears to have an issue with the actual harms their models perpetuate.
No horizon
Qualifier: appear to
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If Hegseth and the administration were to truly want to punish Anthropic, they could put pressure on Amazon, Microsoft and Google to cut off Anthropic, which would cut it off from its entire compute operation”
Our reading: If the administration wanted to punish Anthropic, it could pressure Amazon, Microsoft and Google to cut Anthropic off from all of its compute.
No horizon
Only if: if the administration truly wants to punish Anthropic
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This is ultimately a PR move to make Altman seem more ethical, and position Amodei as a pedant that rejects his patriotism and prioritizes legalese over freedom.”
Our reading: OpenAI's strengthened contract language is a PR move to make Altman look more ethical and to cast Amodei as a pedant.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Worse still, NVIDIA’s earnings also mentioned $27bn in cloud commitments — literally paying its customers to rent the chips it sells, heavily suggesting that there isn’t the underlying revenue.”
Our reading: NVIDIA's $27bn in cloud commitments, which amount to paying customers to rent its chips, strongly suggest that the underlying demand revenue isn't there.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In reality, we should loathe both Altman and Amodei for their natural jingoism and continual deception.”
Our reading: People should loathe both Altman and Amodei for their jingoism and constant deception.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI isn’t intelligent, but it allows people to pretend that it is, especially when the people selling the software — Altman and Amodei — so regularly overstate what it can do.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not intelligent, and Altman and Amodei regularly overstate what it can do.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It’s so cool that OpenAI is just looting its non-profit!”
Our reading: He sarcastically condemns OpenAI as looting its non-profit, over a reported plan in which the nonprofit may sell several billion dollars of its shares to investors.
No horizon
Qualifier: nonprofit may sell shares depending on investment demand
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Neither of these men deserve a shred of credit or celebration. Both of them were and are ready and willing to monetize war, as long as it sort-of-kind-of follows the law.”
Our reading: Neither Altman nor Amodei deserves a shred of credit or celebration, because both were and are ready and willing to monetize war as long as it sort-of-kind-of follows the law.
No horizon
Qualifier: as long as it sort-of-kind-of follows the law
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The vulgar dishonesty of Altman and Amodei puts blood on both of their hands, and it’s the duty of every single member of the media to remind people of this whenever you discuss their software.”
Our reading: Altman and Amodei have blood on their hands because of their dishonesty, and the media should point this out whenever it covers their software.
No horizon
Qualifier: whenever discussing their software