Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 13 of 13
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1290)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 13 of 13: claims 1201 to 1290 of 1290, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Those who rely on generative AI to create are not creators any more than a person that commissions a portrait is an artist.”
Our reading: Those who rely on generative AI to create are not creators, any more than a person who commissions a portrait is an artist.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This hasn't stopped spammers from publishing awkward rewrites and summaries of other people's books, and because Amazon's policies don't outright ban AI-generated content, ChatGPT has become an inoperable cancer on the body of the publishing industry.”
Our reading: Because Amazon's policies don't outright ban AI-generated content, ChatGPT has become an 'inoperable cancer on the body of the publishing industry.'
No horizon
Qualifier: because Amazon's policies don't outright ban AI-generated content
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“ChatGPT's DALL-E (images) and Sora (video) products are, as I've noted, limited by the availability of ways to teach them as well as the limits of generative AI itself, meaning that video may continue to dominate the internet as text-based content finds itself crowded out by AI-generated content.”
Our reading: OpenAI's DALL-E and Sora are limited by the availability of ways to teach them and by the limits of generative AI itself, meaning video may continue to dominate the internet as text-based content is crowded out by AI-generated content.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Google might pretend it cares about the quality of search results, but nothing about search's decade-long decline has suggested it’s actually going to do anything.”
Our reading: Google might pretend it cares about search result quality, but nothing about search's decade-long decline has suggested Google is actually going to do anything.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It's a different flavor of the same problem — these models don't really "know" anything. They're copying other people's homework.”
Our reading: These models don't really 'know' anything; they're 'copying other people's homework.'
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“There's also no way to escape the fact that these hungry robots require legal plagiarism, and any number of copyright assaults could massively slow their progress.”
Our reading: Generative AI models require 'legal plagiarism', and any number of copyright assaults could massively slow their progress.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“And it's slowly killing the internet.”
Our reading: Generative content that games algorithms is slowly killing the internet.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Their eventual goal, in my mind, is to remove as much interaction with the larger internet as possible, summarizing and regurgitating as much as they can so that they can control and monetize the results as much as possible.”
Our reading: In his view, the major platforms aim to minimize interaction with the wider internet by summarizing content with AI so they can control and monetize the results.
No horizon
Qualifier: in my mind
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Yet what's happening to the web is far more sinister than simple greed, but the destruction of the user-generated internet, where executives think they've found a way to replace human beings making cool things with generative monstrosities trained on datasets controlled and monetized by trillion-dollar firms.”
Our reading: What is happening to the web is the destruction of the user-generated internet, in which executives think they have found a way to replace humans making things with generative AI output trained on datasets that trillion-dollar firms control and monetize.
No horizon
Qualifier: executives think they've found a way to replace human-made content
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The numerous lawsuits against OpenAI could break the back of the company, and while Altman and other AI fantasists may pretend that these models are an intractable path to the future of society, any force that controls (or makes them pay for) the data that they use will kneecap the company and force them to come up with a way to make these models ethically.”
Our reading: The many copyright lawsuits against OpenAI could break the company.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“There could be a future where the majority of web users experience the web through a series of portals, like Arc Search's "browse for me" feature, which visits websites for you and summarizes their information using AI.”
Our reading: Most web users could come to experience the web through AI summarization portals.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As we speak, the battle that platforms are fighting is against generative spam, a cartoonish and obvious threat of outright nonsense, meaningless chum that can and should (and likely will) be stopped.”
Our reading: The battle platforms are currently fighting is against generative spam, obvious outright nonsense that can and should, and likely will, be stopped.
No horizon
Scope: generative spam that is outright nonsense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“It's incredibly difficult to make a model forget information, meaning that there may, at some point, be steps back in the development of models if datasets have to be reverted to previous versions with copyrighted materials removed.”
Our reading: Because models are hard to make forget information, model development may go backwards if datasets have to be reverted to remove copyrighted material.
No horizon
Only if: if datasets must be reverted with copyrighted materials removed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I think the tech industry's (and venture capital’s) obsession with artificial intelligence is a symptom of rot, where products are created based on analytics and guesswork rather than actually thinking about what a customer might want.”
Our reading: The tech industry's and venture capital's obsession with AI is a symptom of the Rot Economy rather than of customer-driven product thinking.
No horizon
Source: Software Has Eaten The Media
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And I think it's because Microsoft isn't actually interested in users liking or using the product, but in showing the markets a new button that computer manufacturers can put on laptops that suggests that it is still innovative.”
Our reading: Microsoft promotes Copilot to signal innovation to markets rather than because it cares about users liking or using it.
No horizon
Source: Software Has Eaten The Media
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This decision is one made to satisfy investors — a way of showing that Google is integrating artificial intelligence to "push the boundaries of where we need to go" according to Sundar Pichai, who I do not believe ever uses Google Assistant.”
Our reading: Google's decision to replace Google Assistant with Gemini was made to satisfy investors, as a way of showing that Google is integrating artificial intelligence.
No horizon
Source: Software Has Eaten The Media
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“In a logical tech economy, one would be terrified that so many bets have been made on such shaky ground, but we're in the Rot Economy, where an unsustainable product with few clear use cases can burn billions of dollars and fuel our climate crisis because the tech industry has run out of fucking ideas.”
Our reading: In the Rot Economy, unlike a logical tech economy where so many bets on shaky ground would be terrifying, an unsustainable product with few clear use cases (generative AI) can burn billions of dollars and fuel the climate crisis because the tech industry has run out of ideas.
No horizon
Scope: we're in the Rot Economy
Source: Software Has Eaten The Media
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“These things are not "learning," or "understanding," or even "intelligent" — they're giant math machines that, while impressive at first, can never assail the limits of a technology that doesn't actually know anything.”
Our reading: Generative AI models are not learning, understanding or intelligent and can never overcome the limits of a technology without knowledge.
No horizon
Source: Subprime Intelligence
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“As I discussed in my last newsletter, media entities are increasingly normalizing their content to please search engine algorithms, and the jobs that involve pooling affiliate links and answering where you can watch the Super Bowl are very much at risk.”
Our reading: Media jobs producing SEO-driven generic content, like affiliate-link pooling, are very much at risk from generative AI.
No horizon
Source: Subprime Intelligence
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I'd argue that a generative AI's inability to reliably generate stuff is an existential threat that should have smothered these companies early in their lives.”
Our reading: Zitron argues that generative AI's inability to reliably generate output is an existential threat that should have smothered AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic early in their lives.
No horizon
Qualifier: I'd argue
Source: Subprime Intelligence
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I consider myself relatively tuned into the tech ecosystem, and I read every single tech publication regularly, yet I'm struggling to point to anything that generative AI has done other than reignite the flames of venture capital.”
Our reading: Zitron, who says he reads every tech publication regularly, is struggling to point to anything generative AI has done other than reignite venture capital.
No horizon
Qualifier: in his own assessment
Source: Subprime Intelligence
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Yet even with thousands of headlines, billions of dollars of investment, and trillions of tokens run through various large language models, there are no essential artificial intelligence use cases, and no killer apps outside of non-generative assistants like Alexa that are now having generative AI forced into them for no apparent reason.”
Our reading: Despite thousands of headlines, billions of dollars of investment and trillions of tokens, there are no essential AI use cases and no killer apps apart from non-generative assistants like Alexa.
No horizon
Scope: outside of non-generative assistants like Alexa
Source: Subprime Intelligence
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I don't argue it will, at least not in such a way that anybody's lives will be improved.”
Our reading: Zitron doubts that generative AI, a product that can only sort-of-kind-of do something, will create trillions of dollars of economic value, at least not in a way that improves anybody's lives.
No horizon
Qualifier: at least not in such a way that anybody's lives will be improved
Source: Subprime Intelligence
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Google's investment in Anthropic was made in the hopes that it’d see a similar revenue multiplier, and I'd argue Amazon's was made in the same vein — though it was too late to force Anthropic to use AWS as their preferred vendor.”
Our reading: Google's investment in Anthropic was made hoping for a revenue multiplier like Microsoft's, and Zitron argues Amazon's was made in the same vein, though too late to force Anthropic to use AWS as its preferred vendor.
No horizon
Qualifier: I'd argue (as to Amazon)
Source: Subprime Intelligence
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sora's outputs can mimic real-life objects in a genuinely chilling way, but its outputs — like DALL-E, like ChatGPT — are marred by the fact that these models do not actually know anything.”
Our reading: Generative models like Sora, DALL-E and ChatGPT do not actually know anything.
No horizon
Source: Subprime Intelligence
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I believe artificial intelligence companies deeply underestimate how perfect the things around us are, and how deeply we base our understanding and acceptance of the world on knowledge and context.”
Our reading: Zitron believes AI companies deeply underestimate how perfect the things around us are and how deeply we base our understanding and acceptance of the world on knowledge and context.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: Subprime Intelligence
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“While I agree with Sasso that George Carlin would indeed have been a voice we could use in 2024 if he were not dead, I do not believe that any “need” for a particular artist’s voice justifies creating an abominable digital clone with someone else’s words in its mouth.”
Our reading: Zitron does not believe that any 'need' for a particular artist's voice justifies creating an abominable digital clone with someone else's words in its mouth.
No horizon
Qualifier: I do not believe
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The voice of Dudesy may indeed be AI-generated, but I would wager a human being is either writing or heavily editing a script.”
Our reading: Although Dudesy's voice may be AI-generated, a human is probably writing or heavily editing its scripts.
No horizon
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“An AI cannot experience time, frustration, jealousy, yearning, sickness, fatigue or any of the emotions that play into or impede creativity.”
Our reading: An AI cannot experience time, frustration, jealousy, yearning, sickness, fatigue or any of the emotions that play into or impede creativity.
No horizon
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Dudesy’s “state of the art entertainment AI” is far more likely someone typing stuff into a chatbot and “surprising” two comedians with things like “getting a colonoscopy” and “a fake autobiography of Tom Hanks where he says curses.””
Our reading: Dudesy's claimed 'state of the art entertainment AI' is more likely just someone typing prompts into a chatbot.
No horizon
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“And I believe there are an alarming amount of people with so little soul, so little being, and so little personality behind their work that chatGPT does seem magical because — just like them — it doesn't have any of its own ideas.”
Our reading: Zitron believes an alarming number of people have so little soul, being and personality behind their work that ChatGPT seems magical to them, because, like them, it has no ideas of its own.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“What I think is far more likely is that “Dudesy” is a collaboration between Sasso, Kultgen, and an unnamed artificial intelligence company, and the result is equal parts despicable and ridiculous.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks it is far more likely, compared with the alternatives he lists, that Dudesy is a collaboration between Sasso, Kultgen and an unnamed AI company, and that the result is equal parts despicable and ridiculous.
No horizon
Qualifier: what I think
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“You cannot create a new George Carlin, as he was created not only by the precise history and events that he participated in, but the relationships he had with other humans in parity with his own thoughts and emotions. These are not things that are simulated or simulatable.”
Our reading: You cannot create a new George Carlin, because he was shaped by the precise history and events he took part in and his relationships with other people alongside his own thoughts and emotions, and these cannot be simulated.
No horizon
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This is entirely my intuition, but AI-Carlin’s jokes feel like they were generated by feeding transcripts of his real work into a generative AI, with the resulting CarlinGPT bot prompted by Sasso and Kultgen and its outputs heavily edited.”
Our reading: By his intuition, the AI Carlin jokes were likely made by feeding Carlin transcripts into a generative AI, prompted by the hosts and heavily edited.
No horizon
Qualifier: intuition only
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It shouldn’t surprise anyone that some venture capitalists worship a machine that can create soulless facsimiles of other people’s ideas.”
Our reading: It should not surprise anyone that some venture capitalists worship a machine that can create soulless facsimiles of other people's ideas.
No horizon
Scope: some venture capitalists
Source: Software Is Beating The World
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative excites them because it allows them to LARP in the creative arts without the troublesome task of learning or doing something.”
Our reading: Effective accelerationists are excited by generative AI because it lets them pretend to do creative work without learning or doing anything.
No horizon
Source: Software Is Beating The World
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“They see ChatGPT and Midjourney as ample replacements for writers and artists because they fundamentally lack any creative energy, existing as joyless vessels hoarding more capital and attention in the hopes it makes them forget that they’ve fundamentally created nothing.”
Our reading: Advocates of growth-at-all-costs regard ChatGPT and Midjourney as adequate replacements for writers and artists because they themselves lack creativity.
No horizon
Source: Software Is Beating The World
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Musk’s insistence on creating and owning a Large Language Model (rather than connecting to another LLM like, say, Snap, a company that has had exactly one profitable quarter) means that he is responsible for driving down costs rather than an external vendor, something that he has proven to be incapable of doing without destroying everything in the process.”
Our reading: Owning its own LLM makes Musk responsible for cutting Grok's costs, which he has proven unable to do without destruction.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Even if it doesn’t, it will likely further pollute an already-murky pool of information, the previously-mentioned generative inbreeding churning out useless nonsense that will, in turn, be posted by his gormless fans, which will in turn train Grok further.”
Our reading: Grok will likely further pollute X's information pool via a feedback loop of generated nonsense retraining it.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While one might argue that attaching Grok to the website might increase its value, it’s unlikely to do so by much.”
Our reading: Attaching Grok to X is unlikely to increase its value by much.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If he believes that Grok can be a competitor to the legacy media companies he’s claiming are trying to kill his website, he may very well see this as an opportunity to “fight back” and add a section to the website “powered by Grok” that generates publicly-available misinformation at a massive scale.”
Our reading: If Musk believes Grok can compete with the legacy media companies he claims are trying to kill X, he may very well see this as a chance to 'fight back' and add a 'powered by Grok' section to X that generates publicly-available misinformation at massive scale.
No horizon
Only if: if Musk believes Grok can compete with legacy media companies he claims are trying to kill his website
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“This is, of course, an extremely obvious thing to avoid, meaning that Musk is likely to try it based on his outright hostility toward journalists.”
Our reading: Musk is likely to have Grok publish content directly on X despite the legal risk.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Musk could, of course, merge the companies, but doing so would — much like training Grok on xAI’s data — corrupt xAi in the same way that it has corrupted Musk.”
Our reading: If Musk merges the companies (X and xAI), doing so would corrupt xAI in the same way that it has corrupted Musk, much like training Grok on xAI's data.
No horizon
Only if: if Musk merges X and xAI
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Grok is financial cancer for an already-dying company, and may precipitate the actual death of Twitter — or, as Musk has threatened in the past, its bankruptcy.”
Our reading: Grok is a financial drain that may precipitate Twitter's death or bankruptcy.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“I believe that OpenAI is the beginning of a reckoning in Silicon Valley, where the venture community is forced to consider that the only thing that grows forever is cancer.”
Our reading: The OpenAI episode marks the beginning of a reckoning that forces Silicon Valley venture capital to face the limits of growth-at-all-costs.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It isn’t unthinkable that Microsoft could cut its losses and walk away.”
Our reading: Microsoft could cut its losses on OpenAI and walk away.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In this scenario, it would have acquired everything besides the IP — which, presumably, it could buy at a later date, with its opponent in the negotiations both vastly-diminished and desperate.”
Our reading: If a mass walk-out of OpenAI staff to Microsoft occurs, Microsoft would have acquired everything besides OpenAI's IP, which it presumably could buy later from a vastly diminished and desperate OpenAI.
No horizon
Only if: assuming a mass walk-out occurs
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The aftermath of this situation will be messy, likely involving lawsuits, investor and employee revolts, and an internal fracturing within OpenAI.”
Our reading: The aftermath of Altman's firing will be messy and will likely include lawsuits, investor and employee revolts, and internal fracturing at OpenAI.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Shear’s tenure could be just as short-lived as Murati’s.”
Our reading: Emmett Shear's tenure as OpenAI CEO could be as short-lived as Mira Murati's.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“On the balance of probabilities, the odds of a major employee exodus seems high, if not inevitable.”
Our reading: A major employee exodus from OpenAI is highly likely, perhaps inevitable.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In the end, OpenAI may end up being the most important company in Silicon Valley history, not just for the technology it builds, but for the controversies it’s going to create — and, evidently, has already spawned.”
Our reading: OpenAI may become the most important company in Silicon Valley history, for its technology and for the controversies it creates.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The latter scenario feels especially plausible.”
Our reading: It feels especially plausible that Microsoft, now that Altman and Brockman lead its advanced AI division, will treat OpenAI as a competitor rather than a partner.
No horizon
Qualifier: with Altman and Brockman now leading a Microsoft advanced AI division
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI is allegedly on track to generate $1 billion a year in revenue in the next year, but if it’s not profitable at this scale, it’s likely that Altman’s mission has been to make the company more money rather than develop an AGI or, perish the thought, make a sustainable company that doesn’t have to continually live on venture-backed welfare.”
Our reading: If OpenAI, which is allegedly on track to generate $1 billion a year in revenue in the next year, is not profitable at that scale, it is likely that Altman's mission has been to make the company more money rather than develop an AGI or build a sustainable company that does not have to keep living on venture funding.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI is not profitable at this scale
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“While AI making goofy factual errors can be good for a laugh, but when poorly-tested (or error-prone) artificial intelligence enters critical infrastructure like healthcare, the results could be deadly.”
Our reading: Poorly tested or error-prone AI deployed in critical infrastructure such as healthcare could have deadly results.
No horizon
Only if: when poorly-tested or error-prone AI enters critical infrastructure like healthcare
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“And this entire fiasco has shown that the tech industry is entirely beholden to the largest and richest men in technology, and no amount of theoretical altruism or positive motives can outdo those who control the money and the cloud infrastructure of the tech industry.”
Our reading: The OpenAI fiasco has shown that the tech industry is entirely beholden to the largest and richest men in technology, and that no amount of theoretical altruism or positive motives can outdo those who control the industry's money and cloud infrastructure.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In the event that the “AI safety” story is true, this is likely a watershed moment in the tech industry.”
Our reading: If Altman was fired over AI safety concerns, the firing is likely a watershed moment for the tech industry.
No horizon
Only if: if the AI safety explanation for the firing is true
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Even though fears about an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may be hyperbolic (or, rather, somewhat premature), there is a real problem in rushing artificial intelligence into the functionality of the world as the technology currently stands.”
Our reading: Although fears about AGI may be hyperbolic or somewhat premature, there is a real problem in rushing AI into the functioning of the world as the technology currently stands.
No horizon
Qualifier: as the technology currently stands
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While we will find out exactly what happens next in the following days or weeks, it’s likely that Altman wanted OpenAI to go in a different direction to the board — one that allowed it to continue to scale in an unsustainable way, or that would work against the non-profit’s mission.”
Our reading: Altman likely wanted OpenAI to go in a different direction from the board, one that allowed it to keep scaling unsustainably or that would work against the non-profit's mission.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“People shouldn’t be afraid of an AGI — they should fear what happens when greedy executives look to automate away as much as possible.”
Our reading: People should fear greedy executives automating as much as possible, not AGI.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman, Freed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“An industry where David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, Elon Musk, and Marc Andreessen lead the conversation is not one to be proud of, resembling the opening of a dystopian sci-fi more than any fanciful lie about utopias powered by AI.”
Our reading: An industry where David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, Elon Musk, and Marc Andreessen lead the conversation is not one to be proud of, and it resembles the opening of a dystopian sci-fi more than any fanciful lie about AI-powered utopias.
No horizon
Scope: an industry where David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, Elon Musk, and Marc Andreessen lead the conversation
Source: You Are Not The Man In The Arena
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The argument, of course, is that AI is “in its early days,” the same noxious defense that was used for cryptocurrency — which had also been around for many years before its venture-backed boom.”
Our reading: The argument that AI is 'in its early days' is a noxious defense, the same one used for cryptocurrency, which had also been around for many years before its venture-backed boom.
No horizon
Source: You Are Not The Man In The Arena
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The output from ChatGPT or any other generative AI feels utterly soulless”
Our reading: Output from ChatGPT or any other generative AI feels utterly soulless.
No horizon
Qualifier: feels (subjective impression)
Source: The Age Of Mediocrity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“They crave a new Industrial Revolution where simulations of human beings do a shittier job slightly faster without needing to be paid to do it, or with a human being as a handler that must constantly refine and buff up work in a way that will likely take more time than having a human do it in the first place.”
Our reading: AI work that requires a human handler to constantly refine it will likely take more time than having a human do the work in the first place.
No horizon
Source: The Age Of Mediocrity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“He believes that he can somehow monetize Twitter’s data by selling it to AI companies without any real understanding of the economics of doing so.”
Our reading: Musk believes he can make money by selling Twitter's data to AI companies but has no real understanding of the economics of doing so.
No horizon
Source: The End of the Honest Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“As with many things Musk has said, this sounds utterly made up.”
Our reading: Musk's justification that rate-limiting was needed to stop bad actors scraping Twitter to build AI models sounds made up.
No horizon
Source: The End of the Honest Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“While some are suggesting that the most obvious reason for rate-limiting was Musk’s failure to pay his bills, the real one may be far more obvious — that Musk decided he was going to “fix” a problem that had been present for a while, or did not exist.”
Our reading: The real reason for Twitter's rate-limiting may be that Musk tried to fix a scraping problem that had existed for a long time or did not exist at all.
No horizon
Source: The End of the Honest Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While I’m not suggesting that every company will follow this model, this feels like an inevitable consequence of artificial intelligence adoption.”
Our reading: It feels like an inevitable consequence of AI adoption that companies will follow the model of offering little meaningful customer support, though he does not suggest every company will follow it.
No horizon
Qualifier: this feels like
Source: Artificial Labor
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While a human being may have to make the burger (for now), I believe the fast food industry’s eventual goal is to make human beings a conveyance rather than anything approaching customer service.”
Our reading: Zitron believes the fast food industry's eventual goal is to make human beings a conveyance rather than anything approaching customer service, even if a human may have to make the burger for now.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: Artificial Labor
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And I think that this is what’s truly powering executive excitement over artificial intelligence – the idea that workers can eventually be removed from the equation entirely.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks that what is truly powering executive excitement over AI is the idea that workers can eventually be removed from the equation entirely.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: Artificial Labor
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“These are reasonable requests.”
Our reading: The WGA's strike demands, including guarantees on how AI is used in union productions, are reasonable.
No horizon
Qualifier: refers to WGA strike demands, including guarantees around AI use in union productions
Source: Absentee Capitalism
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Executive excitement around generative AI is borne from these disconnected economics, because none of these people actually create anything.”
Our reading: Executives are excited about generative AI because they are cut off from production and do not create anything themselves.
No horizon
Source: Absentee Capitalism
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The Writers Guild of America has brought up similar concerns (and made it clear they are willing to strike to protect the rights of their workers) and will likely successfully protect writers as a result.”
Our reading: The Writers Guild of America will likely succeed in protecting writers against generative AI-related job threats because of its willingness to strike.
No horizon
Qualifier: WGA willing to strike
Source: Post-Bull Depression
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The many, many rounds of layoffs that have happened seem to be due to the fact that tech companies have all agreed it’s a great time to do so.”
Our reading: The many rounds of tech layoffs seem to be due to tech companies having all agreed that it is a great time to lay people off.
No horizon
Qualifier: seem to be
Source: Post-Bull Depression
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI is supposed to take millions of jobs away, but I am struggling to find a cogent explanation as to how, why or when. There’s just the sense that it will happen, and that if you squint hard enough you can sort of see what somebody might be saying.”
Our reading: The author says he is struggling to find a cogent explanation of how, why or when generative AI will take millions of jobs, and that there is just a sense that it will happen.
No horizon
Qualifier: as reported by the author (struggling to find)
Source: Post-Bull Depression
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI appears to be the only way to get funding at the moment”
Our reading: As of April 2023, generative AI appears to be the only way for startups to get venture funding.
No horizon
Qualifier: at the moment
Source: Post-Bull Depression
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI has some promise, but also has the potential to cause genuine harm.”
Our reading: Generative AI shows some promise but also has the potential to cause genuine harm.
No horizon
Source: The Uncanny Valley
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Snap, for whatever reason, has decided that the best allocation of their resources was to add a ChatGPT-powered AI bot to Snapchat to “recommend birthday gifts for your BFF” or “plan a hiking trip for a long weekend,” features that don’t really make sense in a chat app. Or, for that matter, at all.”
Our reading: The features of Snap's ChatGPT-powered Snapchat bot, such as recommending birthday gifts and planning hiking trips, don't really make sense in a chat app, or at all.
No horizon
Qualifier: don't really make sense
Source: Disruption Killed Innovation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And Benioff’s new push into the nebulous world of adding AI to a CRM for the fourth or fifth time is likely to placate a push by activist investor Elliott Management and to try and stabilize a stock that has dropped from $210 to $167 in the last year.”
Our reading: Benioff's latest push to add AI to Salesforce's CRM is likely meant to placate activist investor Elliott Management and stabilize Salesforce's falling stock.
No horizon
Source: Disruption Killed Innovation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The reason that none of these products seem to ever have a firm connection to any real use case or product is that these announcements are not for customers.”
Our reading: The reason Salesforce's AI and blockchain product announcements never seem to have a firm connection to any real use case or product is that the announcements are not meant for customers.
No horizon
Qualifier: seem to
Source: Disruption Killed Innovation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Venture capital may claim to love “innovators,” but what they really want is the quickest possible multiplier of their initial investment, which is why a lot of people are equating the hype around generative AI to that of the cryptocurrency boom of 2021 and early 2022.”
Our reading: Although venture capital may claim to love innovators, what it really wants is the quickest possible multiplier on its initial investment, which is why a lot of people are comparing the hype around generative AI to the cryptocurrency boom of 2021 and early 2022.
No horizon
Scope: a lot of people
Source: Disruption Killed Innovation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Salesforce doesn’t need to make a better CRM, or actually integrate AI in a useful way, because Marc Benioff is able to march onto CNBC and tell Jim Cramer that he wrote a book and businesses “must value stakeholders as much as shareholders.””
Our reading: Salesforce doesn't need to make a better CRM or actually integrate AI in a useful way, because Marc Benioff can go on CNBC and tell Jim Cramer that he wrote a book and that businesses must value stakeholders as much as shareholders.
No horizon
Source: Disruption Killed Innovation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Meta, a company that predominantly makes money through advertising, has created an entirely new product team under a former Apple VP built to “[quickly] integrate the latest [generative AI] technologies into its products,” as well as open-sourcing their own large language model “to help researchers advance their work in this subfield of AI,” and crucially appear to Wall Street as a company that was doing something with generative AI.”
Our reading: A key purpose of Meta's generative AI team and open-source LLM is to make Meta appear to Wall Street to be doing something with generative AI.
No horizon
Source: Disruption Killed Innovation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“But it’s easy to imagine that if Bing AI or Bard suddenly start referring high school history students to the works of David Irving, the authorities in Berlin or Paris might take action.”
Our reading: It is easy to imagine that if Bing AI or Bard suddenly start referring high school history students to the works of David Irving, the authorities in Berlin or Paris might take action.
No horizon
Only if: if Bing AI or Bard suddenly start referring high school history students to the works of David Irving
Source: Degenerative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Microsoft rushed out Bing AI because they wanted their shareholders to see them as constantly growing, despite the fact that it is both regularly wrong and actively manipulative users.”
Our reading: Microsoft rushed out Bing AI to appear to be growing, though it is regularly wrong and manipulative to users.
No horizon
Source: Degenerative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“ChatGPT and generative AI are not themselves the problem, but as with many things in tech, the way that they are thrown into the market has made them potentially dangerous.”
Our reading: The way generative AI is thrown into the market, not the technology itself, has made it potentially dangerous.
No horizon
Source: Degenerative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Microsoft and Google’s customers are victims of rich people playing with toys, hoping to find ways to please rich people that invest the money of other rich people.”
Our reading: Users of Microsoft's and Google's AI search are victims of executives seeking to please investors.
No horizon
Source: Degenerative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“But even with that caveat, there’s still the possibility that something could go terribly wrong.”
Our reading: Even though ChatGPT's reinforcement from human feedback is done in-house, there is still the possibility that something could go terribly wrong.
No horizon
Qualifier: even with the caveat that reinforcement learning is done in-house
Source: Degenerative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“But when put in the context of “this is how search engines are going to work going forward,” they are absolutely fucking ridiculous.”
Our reading: Seen as 'this is how search engines are going to work going forward,' the AI search errors are absolutely ridiculous, even though on their own they are minor.
No horizon
Qualifier: when put in the context of 'this is how search engines are going to work going forward'
Source: Degenerative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“But Microsoft has already admitted that Bing may misrepresent the information that Bing’s AI finds, meaning that while content may be represented by particular sources, it is being “created” by Bing - which Microsoft would likely be potentially liable for.”
Our reading: Microsoft would likely be potentially legally liable for content created by Bing's AI.
No horizon
Source: Degenerative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“A ChatGPT-powered search engine marketed by a massive tech company as a search engine is one that users are likely to believe the answers of, meaning that when said search engine gives patently incorrect and “unhinged” results, we are likely to see situations of misinformation that dwarf the damage caused by Cambridge Analytica and Facebook.”
Our reading: Because users are likely to believe the answers of a ChatGPT-powered search engine marketed as a search engine by a massive tech company, when it gives patently incorrect and 'unhinged' results we are likely to see misinformation that dwarfs the damage caused by Cambridge Analytica and Facebook.
No horizon
Only if: when said search engine gives patently incorrect and 'unhinged' results
Source: Degenerative AI