Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 12 of 14
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1315)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 12 of 14: claims 1101 to 1200 of 1315, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“And once they do, the real fun will begin, as big tech reconciles with a lack of innovation”
Our reading: After markets punish generative AI investors, big tech will have to reckon with its lack of innovation and leaders who lack ideas for what comes next.
No horizon
Only if: once markets punish those most invested in generative AI
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Altman himself is a seedy charlatan, one that’s grown incredibly powerful in the Valley despite never really having done anything”
Our reading: Sam Altman is a charlatan who has grown powerful without really having done anything.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It’s almost a little too on the nose — a tool that only seems revolutionary to people that haven’t written, or coded, or drawn, or sang, or created anything in years.”
Our reading: Generative AI only seems revolutionary to people who haven't created anything in years.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“They don’t care that the output is mediocre, that the product is unprofitable, that there is a quickly-approaching wall that generative AI can’t leap over as it runs out of training data, or that the transformer-based architecture of Large Language Models has hard limitations that are impossible to overcome.”
Our reading: The transformer architecture of LLMs has hard limitations that cannot be overcome.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It doesn’t matter that data centers might end up using as much power as India by 2034, or that generative AI isn’t actually that useful.”
Our reading: Generative AI isn't actually that useful.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It doesn’t matter that data centers might end up using as much power as India by 2034, or that generative AI isn’t actually that useful.”
Our reading: Data centers might use as much power as India by 2034.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In some respects, generative AI is morally worse than Welch’s odious anti-worker philosophy.”
Our reading: In some respects, generative AI is morally worse than Jack Welch's odious anti-worker philosophy.
No horizon
Qualifier: in some respects
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“When you have a society and economy dominated by people who neither create nor understand the things they’re selling, people that don’t experience or respect labor, their natural thought will be that any form of creativity or “work” can (and should) be automated.”
Our reading: The rush to boost AI is explained by an economy run by people disconnected from labor who think all creative work can and should be automated.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“There is no prompt that could have told a generative AI to write what I’ve written”
Our reading: No prompt could have told a generative AI to write what the author wrote in this essay, because great writing comes from the labor of choosing words and finding the theories behind what one sees, not from probabilistic generation trained on other people's text.
No horizon
Scope: what I've written (this essay)
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Generative AI is an act of theft in and of itself, perpetuated by people that have stolen innovation in the name of Shareholder Supremacy, creating a degenerative form of innovation that optimizes the tech industry to create things that sound cool rather than actually help people.”
Our reading: Generative AI is an act of theft in and of itself, carried on by people who have stolen innovation in the name of Shareholder Supremacy, creating a degenerative form of innovation that optimizes the tech industry to make things that sound cool rather than actually help people.
No horizon
Qualifier: in and of itself
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“OpenAI is run by Sam Altman, an unqualified non-technical founder who has conned his way to the heights of Silicon Valley.”
Our reading: OpenAI is run by Sam Altman, whom the author calls an unqualified non-technical founder who has conned his way to the heights of Silicon Valley.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The law, I note, tends to regard actual contracts more seriously than unspoken (and, let’s face it, imaginary) social contracts, and I desperately look forward to the day when Suleyman’s ideas are tested in court. I don’t fancy his chances.”
Our reading: If tested in court, the claim that online content is freeware for training AI is unlikely to prevail.
No horizon
Only if: if tested in court
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The AI bubble has been inflated by people excited about the prospect of not having to deal with those filthy “laborers” that “do work,””
Our reading: AI is a bubble, inflated by executives eager to avoid dealing with workers.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Sam Altman gave them something to do, and he packaged it in a way that told them how to think about it — and, of course, lie about it.”
Our reading: Sam Altman gave big tech generative AI as something to do and packaged it in a way that told them how to think about it and, of course, lie about it.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Generative AI is exciting to the disconnected business freaks running our economy because it’s a way to abstract and outsource even more forms of labor.”
Our reading: Executives are excited by generative AI because it lets them abstract and outsource more labor.
No horizon
Source: The Shareholder Supremacy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It’s also a genuinely dangerous deal for OpenAI, and shows that while Sam Altman might be capable of swindling Silicon Valley startups, he doesn’t have what it takes to bend Apple to his will.”
Our reading: The Apple deal is a genuinely dangerous deal for OpenAI, and it shows that while Sam Altman might be capable of swindling Silicon Valley startups, he doesn't have what it takes to bend Apple to his will.
No horizon
Qualifier: while Sam Altman might be capable of swindling Silicon Valley startups
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“This deal is equal parts perilous and hilarious, and something that could genuinely end up hurting OpenAI, all while insulating Apple.”
Our reading: The Apple-OpenAI deal could end up hurting OpenAI while insulating Apple.
No horizon
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“While Sam Altman is regularly described as a tier-one operator and a superior intellect, this is one of the single-worst deals I’ve seen in my life, one that shows that while it might have domain over the startup world, OpenAI lacks any real leverage.”
Our reading: OpenAI's deal with Apple is one of the single-worst deals he has seen in his life, and it shows that OpenAI, while it might have domain over the startup world, lacks any real leverage.
No horizon
Scope: one of the single-worst deals I've seen in my life
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While it remains to be seen exactly how often you’ll be prompted to use it, ChatGPT’s addition to Apple products feels far more like something cooked up to please Wall Street rather than address a specific need”
Our reading: ChatGPT's addition to Apple products feels far more like something cooked up to please Wall Street than something meant to address a specific need.
No horizon
Qualifier: feels far more like
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Apple has decided that ChatGPT is a feature, not a product, and one that isn’t trustworthy or useful enough to run without a user’s permission, or even pay for.”
Our reading: Apple has decided that ChatGPT is a feature, not a product, and one that isn't trustworthy or useful enough to run without a user's permission, or even to pay for.
No horizon
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Apple can (and likely will) dump ChatGPT at a moment’s notice, replacing it with another generative AI, or ripping the feature out entirely thanks to the fact it introduced it as a feature at the end of a presentation of better, more useful features.”
Our reading: Apple can, and likely will, dump ChatGPT at a moment's notice, either replacing it with another generative AI or ripping the feature out entirely, because it introduced ChatGPT as a feature at the end of a presentation of better, more useful features.
No horizon
Qualifier: (and likely will)
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“This was a humiliating moment for the generative AI movement, and especially so for OpenAI, a company that desperately needs good news at a time when the world has become deeply suspicious of its product and its CEO.”
Our reading: This year's WWDC was a humiliating moment for the generative AI movement, and especially for OpenAI, a company that desperately needs good news at a time when the world has become deeply suspicious of its product and its CEO.
No horizon
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“While this might not kill OpenAI immediately, it’s a brutal moment that proves how little the world actually cares about ChatGPT.”
Our reading: Although it might not kill OpenAI immediately, the Apple deal is a brutal moment that proves how little the world actually cares about ChatGPT.
No horizon
Qualifier: while this might not kill OpenAI immediately
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“especially as I imagine most users will only ask it the occasional question and find no reason to opt for a $20-a-month subscription.”
Our reading: He imagines that most users of ChatGPT on Apple devices will only ask it the occasional question and will find no reason to opt for a $20-a-month subscription.
No horizon
Qualifier: I imagine
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If Apple iced out OpenAI or Anthropic, they could conceivably complain to the European Commission, who might rule in favor of them and order Apple to start supporting their models, in addition to levying a huge multi-billion Euro fine.”
Our reading: If Apple excluded OpenAI or Anthropic, the European Commission might order Apple to support their models and fine it billions of euros.
No horizon
Only if: if Apple iced out OpenAI or Anthropic
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“These are not world-changing integrations, but useful ones”
Our reading: Apple's AI integrations are not world-changing, but they are useful.
No horizon
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Apple likely hopes that its privacy-focused media blitz will hide the fact that it’s ripping off everybody’s work just like Google, OpenAI and Anthropic”
Our reading: Apple is ripping off everybody's work, just like Google, OpenAI and Anthropic, and likely hopes its privacy-focused media blitz will hide that fact.
No horizon
Scope: just like Google, OpenAI and Anthropic
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Despite this ostensibly being Apple’s big AI play, CEO Tim Cook and SVP of Engineering, Craig Federighi spent far more time explaining how much Apple loved privacy, before clunkily launching into a series of product updates that appear to both sound useful and heartily suggest that Apple is intentionally trying to distance itself from the AI bubble.”
Our reading: Apple's WWDC 2024 updates suggest Apple is intentionally trying to distance itself from the AI bubble.
No horizon
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I’d also speculate that Apple likely requires some sort of Service Level Agreement for its partners — meaning that OpenAI has to dedicate resources to maintain uptime for Apple devices, which will in turn be incredibly expensive to maintain, burning money with every query on a product that Apple will offer only when Apple’s services can’t do the job.”
Our reading: He speculates that Apple likely requires some sort of Service Level Agreement for its partners, meaning OpenAI has to dedicate resources to keep Apple devices served, which will be incredibly expensive and will burn money on every query for a product Apple offers only when its own services can't do the job.
No horizon
Qualifier: I'd also speculate
Source: Let Tim Cook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Altman has taken advantage of the fact that the tech industry might not have any hyper-growth markets left, knowing that ChatGPT is, much like Altman, incredibly adept at mimicking depth and experience by parroting the experiences of those who have actually done things.”
Our reading: ChatGPT mimics depth and experience by parroting others, and Altman exploits a tech industry that may have no hyper-growth markets left.
No horizon
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The tech industry has craved a messiah since the death of Steve Jobs, but in OpenAI CEO Sam Altman they’ve discovered more of a false prophet — a seedy grifter that uses his remarkable ability to impress and manipulate Silicon Valley’s elite to mask a total lack of technical or business acumen.”
Our reading: Sam Altman is a false prophet who manipulates Silicon Valley's elite to hide a total lack of technical or business acumen.
No horizon
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“When Altman says something genuinely, truly insane — like how he wants to raise $7tn, which is the combined GDP of Germany and France, to build up a dedicated AI semiconductor manufacturing capacity — the response isn’t to immediately dismiss it with a chorus of derisive laughter, but to actually discuss it with a level of seriousness that isn’t even remotely warranted.”
Our reading: Altman's stated wish to raise $7tn to build dedicated AI semiconductor manufacturing capacity is genuinely insane, and the serious discussion it gets, rather than dismissal, is not even remotely warranted.
No horizon
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“My hope is that venture capital finally learns to back companies that make a profit building software and hardware that actually helps people.”
Our reading: Venture capital should back companies that make a profit building software and hardware that actually helps people.
No horizon
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“While there are genuine safety issues with artificial intelligence to consider, these people are desperately afraid of the computer coming alive and killing them when they should fear the non-technical manipulator getting rich making egregious promises about what AI can actually do.”
Our reading: AI company insiders should worry less about AI coming alive and more about Altman getting rich on egregious promises about AI, though real AI safety issues exist.
No horizon
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And I’d argue that this is exceedingly dangerous for Silicon Valley and the tech industry writ large as executives disconnected from the process of creating software follow another non-technical founder hocking unprofitable, unsustainable and hallucination-prone software.”
Our reading: He argues that Altman pushing OpenAI to sell into as many industries as possible is exceedingly dangerous for Silicon Valley and the wider tech industry, as executives disconnected from creating software follow another non-technical founder hawking unprofitable, unsustainable, hallucination-prone software.
No horizon
Qualifier: I'd argue
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Sam Altman is dangerous to artificial intelligence not because he’s building artificial general intelligence — a kind of AI that meets or surpasses human cognitive capabilities, and potentially mimics human sentience, a bit like Data from Star Trek: The Next Generation — but because Sam Altman’s focus is on what Sam Altman can build to grow the power and influence of Sam Altman.”
Our reading: Altman is dangerous to artificial intelligence not because he is building AGI but because his focus is on what he can build to grow his own power and influence.
No horizon
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While ChatGPT isn’t inherently useless, Altman realizes that it’s impossible to generate the kind of funding and hype he needs based on its actual achievements, and that to continue to accumulate power and money, he must speciously hype it to wealthy and powerful people who don’t participate in the creation of anything.”
Our reading: ChatGPT isn't inherently useless, but Altman realizes that its actual achievements cannot generate the funding and hype he needs, and that to keep accumulating power and money he must speciously hype it to wealthy, powerful people who don't create anything.
No horizon
Qualifier: to continue to accumulate power and money
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The tech industry has spent years pissing off customers, with platforms like Facebook and Google actively making their products less useful in the pursuit of perpetual growth, unashamedly turning their backs on the people that made them rich and acting with such contempt for users that I truly believe society will turn on the tech industry.”
Our reading: Society will turn on the tech industry because of its contempt for users.
No horizon
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“It won’t, however, be the apocalypse. It’ll just be a brutal realignment for an industry that has needed one.”
Our reading: When the deck of cards collapses, it will not be an apocalypse but just a brutal realignment for a tech industry that has needed one.
No horizon
Only if: when the deck of cards collapses
Source: Silicon Valley's False Prophet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It's the same reason that Sundar Pichai and Liz Reid are forcing generative AI into Google Search even as it actively misinforms their customers, recommending people introduce glue and rocks to their diet, claiming former U.S. President Barack Obama is a muslim, and regurgitating stories from satirical news outlet The Onion as indisputable fact.”
Our reading: Sundar Pichai and Liz Reid are forcing generative AI into Google Search, even as it actively misinforms their customers, for the same reason Zuckerberg pushes it: the hope of getting more hyper-growth.
No horizon
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“When the bubble bursts, I imagine these firms will be absorbed by the massive tech companies that have put billions of dollars into them in exactly the same way that Microsoft absorbed Inflection, quietly hiding their shameful failures and repurposing the massive compute investments to bolster the already-existent cloud infrastructure.”
Our reading: When the AI bubble bursts, OpenAI and Anthropic will probably be absorbed by the big tech companies that invested in them, as Microsoft absorbed Inflection.
No horizon
Only if: when the AI bubble bursts
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The Rabbit R1 and Humane Pin both raised incredible sums of capital based on the vaguest of ideas — that people feel overwhelmed by their smartphones — to build products that range from extremely bad to potentially fraudulent, failing to build a product that nobody asked for based on some combination of ignorance and ambivalence.”
Our reading: The Rabbit R1 and Humane Pin raised incredible sums of capital on the vaguest of ideas to build products that range from extremely bad to potentially fraudulent.
No horizon
Qualifier: potentially (applies to fraudulent)
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I just don't think that anyone in big tech is prepared for the bubble to burst.”
Our reading: He doesn't think that anyone in big tech is prepared for the bubble to burst.
No horizon
Qualifier: I just don't think
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And now, the UK’s Information Commissioner’s Office — the nation’s privacy watchdog, with powers to impose steep fines on violators — is probing whether the technology presents an unacceptable risk to consumers. Which, as anyone with a modicum of common sense can confirm, it does.”
Our reading: Microsoft Recall presents an unacceptable risk to consumers.
No horizon
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“They can generate images, quickly query datasets (albeit with no guarantees of accuracy), and craft poetry, but there is no endearing reason to pick up one of them every day and use them.”
Our reading: LLMs such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude can generate images, quickly query datasets (with no guarantees of accuracy) and craft poetry, but there is no endearing reason to pick one up and use it every day.
No horizon
Qualifier: no guarantees of accuracy (applies to dataset queries)
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Every single company chasing the generative AI dragon is hoping that it's the next Amazon Web Services — the ubiquitous cloud product that went from a side project to a bigger revenue-driver than Amazon's store, and today underpins much of the Internet — because it sort of, kind of seems like it's "the next big thing in cloud," even if it doesn't actually seem to do anything useful, let alone incredible.”
Our reading: Generative AI does not appear to do anything useful, despite companies hoping it will be the next AWS.
No horizon
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“For the best part of 15 years we've assumed that the tech industry would always have something up its sleeves, but what's become painfully apparent is that the tech industry might have run out of big, sexy things to sell us, and the "disruption" that tech has become so well-known for was predicated on there being markets for them to disrupt, and ideas that they could fund to do so.”
Our reading: It has become painfully apparent that the tech industry might have run out of big, sexy things to sell, and the disruption tech is known for depended on there being markets to disrupt and ideas to fund.
No horizon
Qualifier: might have run out
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“He’s the archetypal Rot-Com CEO — an unqualified lobbyist pretending to be a technologist and abusing anyone he needs to in the pursuit of growth.”
Our reading: Sam Altman is the archetypal growth-obsessed CEO, an unqualified lobbyist posing as a technologist.
No horizon
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Sam Altman isn't asking Microsoft for a $100 billion supercomputer because generative AI is going to get better — he's doing it because what we have today isn't the world-changing boondoggle that the tech industry needs it to be, and his only prospect of fulfilling the lofty promises he’s made is with a tech industry equivalent of the Marshall Plan.”
Our reading: Altman seeks a $100 billion supercomputer from Microsoft not because generative AI will improve, but because current AI is not world-changing and massive spending is his only way to meet his promises.
No horizon
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The use cases they enable are neither exciting nor ubiquitous, nor are they, if we're honest, anything like what tech executives are trying to sell us, and the problem might not be that it's useless, but that as a piece of technology, it just isn't a hyper-growth market or industry-changer, no matter how many hundreds of billions we put into it.”
Our reading: The problem with generative AI might be not that it is useless but that, as a technology, it just isn't a hyper-growth market or industry-changer, no matter how many hundreds of billions are put into it.
No horizon
Qualifier: the problem might ... be
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“On top of that, nobody really seems to be able to explain why or how generative AI is the next big thing.”
Our reading: Nobody really seems to be able to explain why or how generative AI is the next big thing.
No horizon
Qualifier: really seems
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It doesn’t matter that those “things” are useless, harmful, or profoundly intrusive.”
Our reading: The things Meta's generative AI assistant gives users are useless, harmful, or profoundly intrusive.
No horizon
Source: We're Watching Facebook Die
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And they’re running absolutely rampant on the platform, all because Meta has no duty toward its users.”
Our reading: AI-generated image spam groups are running rampant on Facebook because Meta has no duty toward its users.
No horizon
Source: We're Watching Facebook Die
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“it's time for artificial intelligence companies to start showing us something, and it's time for OpenAI to stop being given any credit or quarter to tell us what it "will" do until it shows us.”
Our reading: OpenAI should get no credit for claims about what it will do until it demonstrates results.
No horizon
Qualifier: until it shows us
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Failing to interrogate these people will cause immeasurable harm to the creatives they're stealing from, and anyone in the media that believes that Altman and his ilk won't come for their work is living in a fantasy land.”
Our reading: Failing to interrogate these people will cause immeasurable harm to the creatives they are stealing from; separately and unconditionally, anyone in the media who believes Altman and his ilk won't come for their work is living in a fantasy land.
No horizon
Only if: failing to interrogate these people
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“where products are built upon a foundation of stolen content interpreted by a model that doesn’t actually know anything — because AI can’t, by definition, know anything.”
Our reading: AI products are built on stolen content and AI models cannot, by definition, know anything.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It's time to actively push back on Altman when he says that GPT-5 will be "similar to a virtual brain," or a "super smart person who knows absolutely everything about your life," or a "super-competent colleague," or that it'll "replace 95% of marketing tasks,"”
Our reading: People should push back on Altman's claims that GPT-5 will be like a virtual brain, a super-competent colleague, or will replace 95% of marketing tasks.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The AI reality distortion field feels like a giant con, used to keep media attention (and traffic) flowing to ChatGPT so that Altman can continue claiming that "generative AI is the future" when it's yet to prove itself necessary, essential, or capable of overcoming its massive energy, compute and training data needs. Or, for that matter, a financially-viable service.”
Our reading: Generative AI has yet to prove itself necessary, essential, able to overcome its energy, compute and data needs, or financially viable.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Yet they will fail to perpetuate further misery if they are interrogated with the suspicion they deserve.”
Our reading: If AI companies are scrutinized with suspicion, they will fail to cause further harm.
No horizon
Only if: if interrogated with suspicion
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The second possible explanation — and the most plausible in my opinion — is that OpenAI simply pirated her likeness and then tried to bring her onboard in a failed attempt to eliminate any potential legal risk.”
Our reading: In Zitron's opinion, the most plausible of two explanations is that OpenAI simply pirated Scarlett Johansson's likeness and then tried to bring her on board, in a failed attempt to eliminate any potential legal risk.
No horizon
Qualifier: the most plausible in my opinion
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Push back against the vague promises of artificial intelligence.”
Our reading: People should push back against vague promises about AI.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“He needs us to humor — even if he rejects the notion — the idea that AI could be considered a "creature" because doing so allows him to add further mystique and hype to distract from the fact that he doesn't seem to know anything and OpenAI doesn't seem to be innovating.”
Our reading: Altman needs people to entertain the idea that AI could be considered a 'creature', even if he rejects the notion, because doing so lets him add mystique and hype that distracts from the fact that he doesn't seem to know anything and OpenAI doesn't seem to be innovating.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if he rejects the notion
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I'll cut to the chase: it's time to stop listening to anything that Sam Altman has to say.”
Our reading: People should stop listening to anything Sam Altman says.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“This is not a person that should be making decisions about the future of the tech industry, nor should he be allowed to spout fan fiction and automatically have it covered as gospel.”
Our reading: Sam Altman should not be making decisions about the tech industry's future, and his claims should not be covered uncritically.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Questions must be asked of these founders, and follow-up questions asked based on what they say, and their reckless, stupid ideas must be faced with suspicion and a complete lack of the benefit of the doubt.”
Our reading: These founders (Altman and the other tech leaders discussed in the post) must be asked questions and follow-up questions, and their reckless, stupid ideas must be met with suspicion and a complete lack of the benefit of the doubt.
No horizon
Scope: these founders: Altman, Pichai, Nadella, Zuckerberg and their peers discussed in the post
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Sam Altman is full of shit, and his reign at OpenAI has been defined far more by its empty promises than any realized dreams.”
Our reading: Sam Altman is full of shit, and his reign at OpenAI has been defined far more by empty promises than by any realized dreams.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s time — it’s been time for a while — to accept that artificial intelligence isn’t the digital panacea that will automate our entire lives, and that reality may be far more mediocre than what Sam Altman and his ilk have been selling.”
Our reading: People should accept that AI will not automate our entire lives and may be far more mediocre than Sam Altman claims.
No horizon
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Venture capital investment is at a five-year-low because an alarming amount of VCs don’t seem to understand technology or business, and seem entirely married to hype cycles.”
Our reading: Venture capital investment is at a five-year low because an alarming number of VCs seem not to understand technology or business and seem entirely married to hype cycles.
No horizon
Qualifier: seem
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“but the thing that I think he’s leaving out is that it may take an energy breakthrough (and more chips) for generative AI to approach any level of necessity”
Our reading: In the author's view, it may take an energy breakthrough and more chips for generative AI to reach any level of necessity.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“because something that can automate your calendar, your emails, your music and your travel in a way that you can actually rely on requires operating system-level access and processing of information that may never exist.”
Our reading: Something that can reliably automate your calendar, emails, music and travel requires operating-system-level access and information processing that may never exist.
No horizon
Qualifier: in a way that you can actually rely on
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Sora’s problem isn’t really the amount of time it takes to generate a shot, but the imprecision that comes from using a generative artificial intelligence that doesn’t really know anything.”
Our reading: Sora's main problem is imprecision caused by generative AI not really knowing anything.
No horizon
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Companies like Google, OpenAI and Rabbit should be treated with suspicion when they make flowery promises, and derision when they continually fail to do anything useful.”
Our reading: Companies like Google, OpenAI and Rabbit should be treated with suspicion when they make flowery promises, and with derision when they continually fail to do anything useful.
No horizon
Only if: when they make flowery promises
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Or perhaps the truth was a little simpler: there wasn’t much artificial intelligence happening at all.”
Our reading: Perhaps there wasn't much artificial intelligence happening at all in Rabbit's Large Action Model.
No horizon
Qualifier: perhaps
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The tech industry needs to start building things for real people again.”
Our reading: The tech industry should build products that solve real problems for ordinary people.
No horizon
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Sora hasn’t even been launched, save to a few hand-picked companies that got to test an early version, meaning that the 10-to-20 minute wait between generations is something that’s likely to increase once more people use the product, and that’s before you consider how incredibly expensive it is to run a significantly more complex model than ChatGPT, which is already unprofitable for OpenAI to run.”
Our reading: Sora's 10-20 minute generation wait is likely to increase once more people use it.
No horizon
Only if: once more people use the product
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Companies that deliver features late should not get credit for features they are yet to deliver, and companies like Rabbit that engage in the language of science fiction to paper over their lazily-developed half-solutions should get buried for doing so.”
Our reading: Companies should get no credit for features not yet delivered, and companies like Rabbit that hype half-solutions should be harshly criticized.
No horizon
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Though I am not a tax attorney or an accountant, nor do I have any insight beyond what’s publicly available, this highly suggests that Rabbit Inc cannot currently do business in the State of California, where it is headquartered.”
Our reading: Rabbit Inc.'s forfeited status strongly suggests it cannot currently do business in California, where it is headquartered.
No horizon
Qualifier: based on forfeited status with California Secretary of State
Source: Rabbit Holed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I also want Lyu to apologize to anyone who invested in GAMA, and the multiple people he has attempted to gaslight by suggesting he had no relationship with the company.”
Our reading: Zitron wants Jesse Lyu to apologize to anyone who invested in GAMA and to the multiple people Lyu has attempted to gaslight by suggesting he had no relationship with the company.
No horizon
Source: Rabbit Holed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I also believe that Jesse Lyu owes reporters he has talked to and users that have paid him money thorough explanations as to what happened to his previous ventures, what happened to the funds raised by said ventures, and why he has so thoroughly sought to obfuscate their existence.”
Our reading: Zitron believes Jesse Lyu owes the reporters he has talked to and the users who have paid him money thorough explanations of what happened to his previous ventures, what happened to the funds those ventures raised, and why he has so thoroughly sought to obfuscate their existence.
No horizon
Qualifier: I also believe
Source: Rabbit Holed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“At the very least, Jesse Lyu should comprehensively explain what has happened here and be honest and forthright with his explanations.”
Our reading: Rabbit CEO Jesse Lyu should give a full, honest explanation of what happened with GAMA and Cyber Manufacture.
No horizon
Source: Rabbit Holed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Yet because Altman — like every manager — is so thoroughly divorced from actual production, he’s only succeeded in generating unsustainable hype and making vague promises that the people who do the actual work at OpenAI likely know they can’t keep.”
Our reading: Because he is divorced from actual production, Altman has only generated unsustainable AI hype and vague promises that OpenAI's workers likely know cannot be kept.
No horizon
Source: Managing Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Much like ChatGPT, Altman is capable only of loosely approximating the output requested, because at his core he lacks any of the substance or technical history required to do so.”
Our reading: ChatGPT, like Sam Altman, can only loosely approximate the output requested of it.
No horizon
Source: Managing Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If left unchecked, OpenAI will perpetuate one of the largest thefts in history, looting the internet and using it to train models that have yet to prove their necessity other than as a symbol that Silicon Valley can still innovate.”
Our reading: If left unchecked, OpenAI will perpetuate one of the largest thefts in history by looting the internet and using it to train models that have yet to prove their necessity other than as a symbol that Silicon Valley can still innovate.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI is left unchecked
Source: Managing Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI's energy demands are unsustainable, as are its compute demands”
Our reading: Generative AI's energy and compute demands are unsustainable.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The answer is obvious: because they believe it'll make them money.”
Our reading: The tech industry is pushing generative AI on people because it believes generative AI will make it money.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And when you have an industry piloted by people who don't make products for people, you don't create anything useful, and you're doomed to make the same stupid, obvious mistakes.”
Our reading: When an industry is piloted by people who don't make products for people, it doesn't create anything useful and is doomed to make the same stupid, obvious mistakes.
No horizon
Only if: an industry piloted by people who don't make products for people
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Even the claims of what generative AI has done need to be taken with a grain — or a spoonful — of salt.”
Our reading: Claims about what generative AI has achieved should be treated with heavy skepticism.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Nothing — and I repeat, nothing — good will come from this.”
Our reading: Nothing good will come from Google's leadership shuffle that moved senior AI engineer Cheenu Venkatachary to lead the ranking and search quality teams.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The generative AI boom has exactly the same stench as the metaverse, and it's happening for exactly the same reason — the people making the products are not building things for human beings, but to show the markets that they'd continue to grow.”
Our reading: Like the metaverse, the generative AI boom is driven by the need to show markets continued growth rather than to build things for people.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Every single tech company making a LLM is stealing, justifying it by using the previous model of the internet where everything published online was there for the taking and conflating access to content with ownership in the process.”
Our reading: Every single tech company making an LLM is stealing, justifying it with the earlier model of the internet in which everything published online was there for the taking, and conflating access to content with ownership.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“LLMs are a globally-perpetuated act of theft taking place in broad daylight, to the point that OpenAI has told England's House of Lords that "it would be impossible to train today's leading AI models without using copyrighted materials."”
Our reading: LLMs are a globally perpetuated act of theft taking place in broad daylight.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI is no different. After all, it’s effectively a subsidiary of Microsoft.”
Our reading: OpenAI is effectively a subsidiary of Microsoft and, like the others, is a thief rather than an innovator.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“While OpenAI, Google and Meta would like to claim that these are "publicly-available" works that they are "training on," the actual word for what they're doing is "stealing."”
Our reading: Although OpenAI, Google and Meta call it training on 'publicly-available' works, the right word for what they are doing is 'stealing'.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Yet I believe that they're all disconnected from any actual value creation.”
Our reading: He believes Google, Meta, Microsoft and OpenAI are all disconnected from any actual value creation.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“I’d say it has the engineering ability of a first-year CompSci undergraduate, but that would be unfair to first-year CompSci undergraduates.”
Our reading: Devin's engineering ability is below that of a first-year computer science undergraduate.
No horizon
Source: They're Looting The Internet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The article is vague, likely because building Stargate is at this point somewhat theoretical.”
Our reading: The Information's article on Stargate is vague, likely because building Stargate is at this point somewhat theoretical.
No horizon
Qualifier: somewhat
Source: Bubble Trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“What I fear is a cascade effect where artificial intelligence fails to provide businesses with anywhere near enough value to necessitate its costs, which will vastly reduce the amount of consumers and enterprises using or integrating models like ChatGPT, or using their own models on cloud providers like AWS or Azure.”
Our reading: AI may fail to provide enough business value to justify its costs, vastly reducing consumer and enterprise usage of models like ChatGPT.
No horizon
Qualifier: AI fails to provide enough value to justify costs
Source: Bubble Trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And when you cut through the hype, the AI industry is investing hundreds of billions of dollars to build infrastructure for a future that may never arrive based on the vague promise of hallucination-prone models.”
Our reading: The future that justifies the AI industry's hundreds of billions in infrastructure investment may never arrive.
No horizon
Source: Bubble Trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“This scenario is likely if the next generations of ChatGPT or Claude fail to make significant leaps in their capabilities, and as I've said above, their ability to do so is predicated on more training data and compute power than currently exists.”
Our reading: If next-generation ChatGPT or Claude fail to leap in capability, a cascade of reduced AI adoption is likely; such leaps require more data and compute than exists.
No horizon
Only if: if next generations of ChatGPT or Claude fail to make significant capability leaps
Source: Bubble Trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Another hallmark of a bubble is a high-revenue, negative-profit industry. Glossy stories about OpenAI and Anthropic's multi-billion dollar revenues never seem to discuss profits, only endless growth.”
Our reading: A high-revenue, negative-profit industry is a hallmark of a bubble, and glossy stories about OpenAI's and Anthropic's multi-billion-dollar revenues never seem to discuss profits, only endless growth.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The selected articles do not establish the prevalence of profitability discussion.
Source: Bubble Trouble