Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 11 of 14
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1315)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 11 of 14: claims 1001 to 1100 of 1315, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Yet, unlike cryptocurrency and the metaverse, everybody has joined the party and decided to burn money pursuing an unsustainable, unreliable, unprofitable, and environmentally-destructive boondoggle sold to customers and businesses as "artificial intelligence" that will "automate everything" without it ever having a path to do so.”
Our reading: Unlike with crypto and the metaverse, everybody has joined in burning money on generative AI, an unsustainable, unreliable, unprofitable, environmentally destructive boondoggle sold as AI that will automate everything without any path to doing so.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I hypothesize a kind of subprime AI crisis is brewing, where almost the entire tech industry has bought in on a technology sold at a vastly-discounted rate, heavily-centralized and subsidized by big tech.”
Our reading: He hypothesizes that a kind of subprime AI crisis is brewing, with almost the entire tech industry bought in on a technology sold at vastly discounted rates, heavily centralized and subsidized by big tech.
No horizon
Qualifier: I hypothesize
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It has massive, intractable problems as a result of these models being probabilistic, meaning that they don't know anything, they're just generating an answer (or an image, or a translation, or a summary) based on training data, something that model developers are running out of at an incredible pace.”
Our reading: Generative AI has intractable problems because its models are probabilistic and don't know anything, and developers are rapidly running out of training data.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In fact, I'd argue that o1 shows that OpenAI is both desperate and out of ideas.”
Our reading: o1 shows that OpenAI is desperate and out of ideas.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This point also illustrates one of the biggest problems with generative AI — that, while "powerful" in some vague way, said power mostly boils down to "generates stuff based on other stuff" rather than any "intelligence."”
Our reading: Generative AI's power mostly amounts to generating stuff based on other stuff, not intelligence.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In effect, investors aren't getting a piece of OpenAI, or any kind of control over OpenAI, but rather shares in the future profits of a company that loses over five billion dollars a year, and will likely lose more in 2025, if it makes it that far.”
Our reading: OpenAI, which loses over $5 billion a year, will likely lose more in 2025, if it makes it that far.
No horizon
Only if: if it makes it that far
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Based on The Information's estimates, Microsoft has somewhere between 400,000 and 4 million users for its Office Copilot features, meaning that there's a decent chance that Microsoft has built out capacity that isn't getting used.”
Our reading: There is a decent chance Microsoft has built data center capacity for Copilot that is not being used.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“While there may be companies "integrating AI" that are driving some degree of spend on Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, I hypothesize a lot of this demand is driven by investor sentiment, with companies “investing in AI” to keep the markets happy rather than any cost/benefit analysis or actual utility.”
Our reading: He hypothesizes that a lot of cloud demand from companies integrating AI is driven by investor sentiment, with companies investing in AI to keep markets happy rather than for cost/benefit or actual utility.
No horizon
Qualifier: I hypothesize
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Based on how unprofitable they are, I hypothesize that if OpenAI or Anthropic charged prices closer to their actual costs, there would be a ten-to-a-hundred-times increase in the price of API calls, though it's impossible to say how much without the actual numbers.”
Our reading: He hypothesizes that if OpenAI or Anthropic charged prices closer to their actual costs, API prices would rise ten to a hundred times, though he says the amount is impossible to know without the actual numbers.
No horizon
Only if: if they charged prices closer to actual costs
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While The Information reported that OpenAI's revenue is $3.5 to $4.5 billion a year in July, The New York Times reported last week that OpenAI's annual revenues have "now topped $2 billion," which would mean that the end-of-year numbers will likely trend toward the lower end of the estimate.”
Our reading: OpenAI's 2024 end-of-year revenue will likely trend toward the lower end of the $3.5–4.5 billion estimate.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“This is the most likely path for Amazon and Google, who, while desperate to make Wall Street happy, still have their own profitable monopolies to point to — for now, at least.”
Our reading: The most likely path for Amazon and Google is a Meta-style 'year of efficiency': reducing capital expenditures, laying people off, and promising to slow investment somewhat, since they still have profitable monopolies to point to, for now.
No horizon
Qualifier: for now, at least
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“I also fear that said collapse could be ruinous to big tech, deeply damaging to the startup ecosystem, and will further sour public support for the tech industry.”
Our reading: He fears that the collapse of the generative AI boom could be ruinous to big tech and deeply damaging to the startup ecosystem, and will further sour public support for the tech industry.
No horizon
Only if: if the generative AI boom collapses
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“I believe that a lot of businesses are "trying" AI at the moment, and once those trials end (Gartner predicts that 30% of generative AI projects will be abandoned after their proof of concepts by end of 2025), they'll likely stop paying for the extra features, or stop integrating generative AI into their companies' products.”
Our reading: Once their AI trials end, many businesses will likely stop paying for AI features or stop integrating generative AI into products.
No horizon
Only if: once AI trials end
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While we can’t know for sure, I imagine if this stuff was in any way profitable, they’d be talking about the revenue they were receiving from it.”
Our reading: While admitting he can't know for sure, he imagines that if generative AI were in any way profitable for the hyperscalers, they would be talking about the revenue from it, and they are not.
No horizon
Qualifier: while we can't know for sure, I imagine
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As I discussed at the end of July, OpenAI needs to raise at least $3 billion — but more like $10 billion to survive, as it is on course to lose $5 billion in 2024, a number that's likely to increase as more complex models demand more compute and more training data, with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicting that future models may cost as much as $100 billion to train.”
Our reading: OpenAI's annual losses are likely to increase beyond $5 billion as more complex models demand more compute and training data.
No horizon
Qualifier: as more complex models demand more compute and training data
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While this sounds like a seismic breakthrough, or even another step towards the highly-feted artificial general intelligence (AGI) — it isn’t — and you can tell by the fact that OpenAI opted to release o1 as its own standalone product, rather than a number update to GPT.”
Our reading: o1's chain-of-thought approach is not a seismic breakthrough or a step toward AGI.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI is more than likely charging only a small percentage of what it likely costs to run its models, and can only continue to do so if it is able to continually raise more venture funding than has ever been raised and continue to receive preferential pricing from Microsoft, a company that recently mentioned that it considers OpenAI a competitor.”
Our reading: OpenAI likely charges only a small fraction of its running costs and can only continue if it keeps raising record venture funding and receiving Microsoft's preferential pricing.
No horizon
Qualifier: can continue only with record fundraising and Microsoft preferential pricing
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And even if they did, it isn't clear whether generative AI actually provides much business value at all.”
Our reading: It is not clear that generative AI provides much business value at all.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It has described the reinforcement training process as “thinking” and “reasoning,” when, in fact, it’s making guesses, and then guessing on the correctness of those guesses at each step, where the end destination is often something that can be known in advance.”
Our reading: o1 does not think or reason; it makes guesses and then guesses about the correctness of those guesses.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“All of the things it generates to “consider” an answer (to be clear, this model is not “thinking”) are also charged for, making complex answers for things like coding likely incredibly expensive.”
Our reading: Because hidden reasoning tokens are charged, complex o1 answers such as coding are likely very expensive.
No horizon
Qualifier: hidden reasoning tokens are charged
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Monopolies are inherently anti-consumer and anti-innovation, and the big push toward generative AI is a blatant attempt to create another monopoly — the dominance of Large Language Models owned by Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta.”
Our reading: Big tech's push toward generative AI is a deliberate attempt to create a monopoly of LLMs owned by Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta.
No horizon
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I hypothesize that the goal was (is?) for these companies to basically reduce the future of computing to you paying them for their models rather than you running your own models on their cloud compute services.”
Our reading: Ed hypothesizes that big tech's goal is to make customers pay for their models rather than run their own models on the companies' cloud services.
No horizon
Qualifier: hypothesis
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“And without something new — and no, generative AI is not the answer — they really don’t have a way to keep growing, and in the case of Meta and Google, may not have a way to sustain their companies past the next decade.”
Our reading: Without a new growth product (and generative AI is not it), Meta and Google may not be able to sustain their companies past the next decade.
No horizon
Only if: without something new beyond generative AI
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“generative AI is (in most cases) a product with minimal utility, minimal value, and will likely prove to be a transient fad”
Our reading: Generative AI will likely prove to be a transient fad.
No horizon
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Last week, in the midst of the slow, painful collapse of the generative AI hype cycle, something incredible happened.”
Our reading: The generative AI hype cycle is in a slow, painful collapse as of August 2024.
No horizon
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And these companies are, in some cases, well-positioned to become tech’s next landlord.”
Our reading: Some big tech companies controlling LLMs are well-positioned to become the tech industry's next landlord.
No horizon
Qualifier: in some cases
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, or Microsoft, or Amazon — which I believe it will — these companies will face serious pressure to curtail their investments and their capex spending.”
Our reading: If generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, Microsoft, or Amazon (which Zitron believes it will), these companies will face serious pressure to curtail their investments and capital expenditures.
No horizon Evidence as of
Only if: generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, or Microsoft, or Amazon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And it’s changing. The narrative is changing. And soon it will shift more aggressively and violently against big tech, and this is a great thing for the world, and ultimately the tech industry at large.”
Our reading: The narrative will soon turn more aggressively against big tech.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Even with $150m in funding — which is a decent amount of capital — Character.ai likely couldn’t keep the lights on for very long, thus necessitating its absorption by a larger company.”
Our reading: Character.ai likely could not have survived long on $150m in funding, so it had to be absorbed, which shows many generative AI applications are unsustainable.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Raising a round for a generative AI company in this market is likely going to be difficult, if not impossible.”
Our reading: In the current market, generative AI companies will likely find raising money difficult or impossible.
No horizon
Qualifier: in this market
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“These men do not care about their customers, they do not face true competition, and the government should break every single hyper scaler up — Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Oracle, and find ways to stop them ever growing so large in the future.”
Our reading: The government should break up every hyperscaler (Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Oracle) and stop them from growing so large again.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Fire Satya Nadella, fire Sundar Pichai, and work out a way to fire Mark Zuckerberg.”
Our reading: Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, and Mark Zuckerberg should be fired.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If I had to guess, Anthropic’s most likely home would be with Amazon, which completed its $4bn investment into the company earlier this year.”
Our reading: If Anthropic is absorbed by a big tech firm, Zitron guesses its most likely home would be Amazon.
No horizon
Only if: if Anthropic is absorbed by a big tech firm
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Sam Altman doesn’t care about AI either. He cares about accumulating power, has been doing so for years, and will be back with another con within three years.”
Our reading: Sam Altman doesn't care about AI; he cares about accumulating power, has been doing so for years, and will be back with another con within three years.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“There is no magic, no whimsy, no joy in any of these Large Language Models and their associated outgrowths. They're not helping anybody, yet their peddlers demand our fealty and our applause.”
Our reading: Large language models and their associated outgrowths are not helping anybody.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In any case, I believe the next month will be critical to the future of the artificial intelligence boom.”
Our reading: The month after August 5, 2024 will be critical to the future of the AI boom.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The point I’m making is that whatever estimates we have about what these companies have spent on generative AI is probably wrong by tens of billions of dollars, and the only real reliable (ish) indicator is CapEx spending, and what’s publicly reported whenever these companies make a new investment.”
Our reading: Public estimates of big tech's generative AI spending are probably wrong by tens of billions of dollars.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“These are stable, revenue-generating (yet unprofitable) ancillary players that likely will need to raise in the next 12 months.”
Our reading: Scale AI and Cohere are unprofitable and will likely need to raise money within 12 months.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The reason I’m not breaking things out much is because Google has been extremely guarded about its AI expenses. Probably because they’re really high and not making them any money.”
Our reading: Google's AI expenses are probably very high and are not making Google any money.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While there is a chance we get one more round — a last gasp — it’s honestly a little tough to imagine how it keeps going even if it raises another $10 billion.”
Our reading: There is a chance OpenAI gets one more funding round, a last gasp, but it is a little tough to imagine how it keeps going even if it raises another $10 billion.
No horizon
Qualifier: there is a chance
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I have no idea how quickly the shift comes, but it is inevitable that this lack of big, profitable ideas leads to some form of collapse in big tech.”
Our reading: Big tech's lack of big, profitable ideas will inevitably lead to some form of collapse, timing unknown.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It's entirely possible that this flaw takes more than three months to resolve.”
Our reading: The Blackwell design flaw may take more than three months to fix.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“With Blackwell representing a major leap forward in capabilities (both in terms of power efficiency and sheer compute power), this is undoubtedly a massive blow to OpenAI, as well as its competitors. On a basic level, this might delay some of OpenAI’s grander ambitions for an indeterminate time.”
Our reading: The Blackwell delay is a massive blow to OpenAI and its competitors, and may delay OpenAI's bigger plans for an indeterminate time.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Sundar Pichai and Satya Nadella must go.”
Our reading: Sundar Pichai and Satya Nadella must be removed as CEOs.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If none of the major cloud companies — who are usually in lock-step with each other to keep their cartel-esque empires alive — change course over the next three months, we could potentially see this boom continue for another quarter.”
Our reading: If no major cloud company changes course in the next three months, the AI boom could continue for another quarter.
No horizon
Only if: if no major cloud company changes course over the next three months
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“However, I believe that the collapse (or absorption) of OpenAI is the one critical sign to look for.”
Our reading: Zitron believes the collapse (or absorption) of OpenAI is the one critical sign to look for that the generative AI bubble is popping.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As I wrote last week, OpenAI needs to raise more money than anybody has ever raised in the next 12-24 months, or launch a product so significant that it blows ChatGPT out of the water — things that are unlikely, but possible.”
Our reading: OpenAI must raise a record amount of money within 12–24 months or launch a product far better than ChatGPT, and both outcomes are unlikely but possible.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It could come up with something new, or find a way to make generative AI much cheaper, but again, that is so very, very unlikely.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely that OpenAI comes up with something new or makes generative AI much cheaper.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I fear OpenAI will compete on price, sending its costs upward, or charge what it needs to to approach break-even, which I don't think it’s willing to do.”
Our reading: Zitron fears OpenAI will compete on price, sending its costs upward, or else charge what it needs to approach break-even, which he does not think it is willing to do.
No horizon
Qualifier: I fear
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As a result, OpenAI's revenue might climb, but it's likely going to climb by reducing the cost of its services rather than its own operating costs.”
Our reading: Any growth in OpenAI's revenue will likely come from cutting prices rather than cutting its own operating costs.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And, to be clear, it is very, very unlikely this happens.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely that OpenAI succeeds in building Strawberry with advanced reasoning capabilities.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Doing so is also likely going to lead to perpetual legal action, especially as 404 Media reports that Runway, a generative video company, likely trained its model on thousands of hours of videos taken from YouTube and pirated sources.”
Our reading: Acquiring training data for generative models is likely to lead to perpetual legal action.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“For OpenAI to scale, it would require a massive capital expenditure on multiple levels, chief of them the American power grid (see page 15 of this Goldman Sachs report for a conversation with Microsoft's former VP of energy), which will likely require extensive expansion the likes of which hasn't happened in decades at a time when America is far less apt at infrastructural development.”
Our reading: For OpenAI to scale, the US power grid would likely need an expansion unseen in decades.
No horizon
Only if: for OpenAI to scale
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It is fundamentally not the media’s job to convince the world that OpenAI is a stable company with great things ahead — that’s OpenAI’s job.”
Our reading: The media should not take on the job of convincing the world that OpenAI is a stable company; that is OpenAI's job.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Doing so multiple times is possible, but very, very unlikely, in the same way that continuing to increase revenue at hundreds of percent each year is possible, but very, very unlikely.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely that OpenAI will raise huge rounds multiple times or keep growing revenue by hundreds of percent each year.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“This isn't impossible, but it feels extremely unlikely that OpenAI would be able to do this for more than a few years.”
Our reading: It is extremely unlikely OpenAI can keep raising record sums and showing growth to investors for more than a few years.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“it’s tough to make the case that these products will fill the burning shortfall in OpenAI’s balance sheet, and would likely only add to its operational costs”
Our reading: Products like Sora and SearchGPT are unlikely to fill OpenAI's balance-sheet shortfall and would likely add to its operating costs.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Perhaps there’s something I’m missing, but if investors have no path to an IPO, this feels like a game of hot potato, except the loser is left with a big, useless stock.”
Our reading: Allowing that he may be missing something, Zitron says that if investors have no path to an IPO, investing in OpenAI feels like a game of hot potato in which the loser is left with a big, useless stock.
No horizon
Only if: if investors have no path to an IPO
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And, to be abundantly clear, I am not sure there is enough training data in existence to get these models past the next generation.”
Our reading: There may not be enough training data in existence to take these models past the next generation.
No horizon
Qualifier: past the next generation
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In the event that it has less than a billion in the bank, OpenAI will likely have to raise $5 billion, and do so in the next three to six months.”
Our reading: If OpenAI has under $1 billion banked, it will likely have to raise $5 billion within three to six months.
No horizon
Only if: if it has less than a billion in the bank
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sadly, that may be the truth for OpenAI.”
Our reading: OpenAI may be burning so much cash that it needs a deep-pocketed benefactor to bail it out repeatedly.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While theoretically Nvidia could produce a much-more-efficient chip, doing so would likely take longer than OpenAI has.”
Our reading: A much more efficient Nvidia chip would likely take longer to arrive than OpenAI can survive.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“What I am describing here is a deeply unsustainable company that many have pinned their hopes on, and even if I’m wrong, this kind of analysis is necessary when there is a company burning billions of dollars that will likely attempt to absorb billions more dollars of capital to survive.”
Our reading: OpenAI is a deeply unsustainable company burning billions that will likely try to absorb billions more in capital to survive.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While there may be ways to reduce the costs of transformer-based models, the level of cost-reduction would be unprecedented, and likely require entirely new chips, cooling solutions and physical server architecture, none of which OpenAI develops.”
Our reading: While there may be ways to reduce the costs of transformer-based models, the level of cost reduction would be unprecedented and would likely require entirely new chips, cooling solutions and physical server architecture, none of which OpenAI develops.
No horizon
Qualifier: while there may be ways to reduce the costs
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Even if these problems are surmountable, there is simply not enough training data, and even if there were, the cost of processing it will likely vastly outweigh whatever revenue OpenAI makes.”
Our reading: Even if these problems are surmountable, there is simply not enough training data, and even if there were, the cost of processing it will likely vastly outweigh whatever revenue OpenAI makes.
No horizon
Only if: even if there were enough training data
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Raise more money than anyone ever has before — likely at least $3 billion, but more like $10 billion, and do so soon, likely within the next six months.”
Our reading: At its current pace, OpenAI would have to raise more money than anyone ever has before, likely at least $3 billion but more like $10 billion, and do so soon, likely within the next six months.
No horizon
Only if: at its current pace
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“OpenAI is inherently limited by GPT's transformer-based architecture, which does not actually automate things, and as a result may only be able to do "more" and "faster," which does not significantly change the product, at least not in such a way that would make it as valuable as it needs to be.”
Our reading: OpenAI is inherently limited by GPT's transformer-based architecture, which does not actually automate things, and as a result may only be able to do 'more' and 'faster', which does not significantly change the product, at least not enough to make it as valuable as it needs to be.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“a frank evaluation of a company that I believe may be teetering on the brink of collapse.”
Our reading: OpenAI may be teetering on the brink of collapse.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“But what they are not, at this time, is essential.”
Our reading: Generative AI models are useful but not essential at present.
No horizon
Qualifier: at this time
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It is inherently limited by its architecture, and in turn can only get "better" in a linear fashion.”
Our reading: Generative AI is inherently limited by its architecture, and as a result it can only get 'better' in a linear fashion.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“This is a bigger existential threat than a lack of adoption. It means people are using it and not getting enough out of it, which could potentially lead to a significant loss of revenue as the hype cycle dies down.”
Our reading: Because users are not getting enough out of generative AI, revenue could fall significantly as the hype cycle fades.
No horizon
Qualifier: as the hype cycle dies down
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And it feels that every report seems to be suggesting it isn't making people money.”
Our reading: It feels like every report seems to suggest that generative AI isn't making people money.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This does not endorse the implied financial generalization.
Source: Rot Economics - An Interview With MIT's Daron Acemoglu
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“A lot of what you've written about AI is the effects of if we automate these tasks, but it feels like they aren't even successfully automating anything.”
Our reading: It feels like generative AI companies aren't even successfully automating anything.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Deployment evidence could test the implied factual premise, but could not establish or falsify the stated subjective impression.
Source: Rot Economics - An Interview With MIT's Daron Acemoglu
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“This feels like this could be an economic panic unto itself.”
Our reading: It feels like it could be an economic panic in itself if tech companies don't have a new growth driver and they turn on generative AI.
No horizon
Only if: if tech companies don't have a new growth thing
Source: Rot Economics - An Interview With MIT's Daron Acemoglu
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It's not so much that we couldn't live in a virtual world or that digital money wouldn't be useful, but it's more that the actual output from the companies is not translating into meaningful products, and they're still monetized.”
Our reading: It feels like the actual output of tech companies' crypto, metaverse and generative AI efforts is not translating into meaningful products, even though it is still being monetized.
No horizon
Scope: crypto, metaverse, and now generative AI
Source: Rot Economics - An Interview With MIT's Daron Acemoglu
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“But even then it's automation only in so much as you can trust it. And it feels like these core issues of hallucinations almost kill the concept of automation with generative.”
Our reading: It feels like the core issue of hallucinations almost kills the concept of automation with generative AI, since it is automation only insofar as you can trust it.
No horizon
Qualifier: it feels like
Source: Rot Economics - An Interview With MIT's Daron Acemoglu
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI is likely well aware that Large Language Models are incapable of reasoning, because Reuters reports that it’s got some sort of in-development model called Strawberry, which is designed to have human-like reasoning capabilities.”
Our reading: LLMs are incapable of reasoning, and OpenAI is likely aware of this.
No horizon
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It claims it will "be trained on the best peer-reviewed science as well as Thrive's behavior change methodology," a mishmash of buzzwords and pseudoscientific pablum that means nothing because the company has produced no product and may likely never do so.”
Our reading: Thrive AI Health, the venture from the Thrive Global and OpenAI partnership, has produced no product and may likely never do so.
No horizon
Qualifier: may likely
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“There was nothing behind this, just like so much of the AI hype — a bunch of specious statements and empty promises in a wrapper of innovation despite creating nothing in the process.”
Our reading: Much of the AI hype is specious statements and empty promises that create nothing.
No horizon
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“I feel like the tech industry is currently in the midst of the most bizarre cognitive dissonance I've ever seen — more so than the metaverse, even — as company after company simply lies about their intentions and the power of AI.”
Our reading: The author feels that the tech industry is in the most bizarre cognitive dissonance he has ever seen, as company after company simply lies about its intentions and the power of AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: I feel like
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“They’re not getting “reasoning,” nor are they getting “sentience,” nor are they “part of the path to superintelligence.””
Our reading: Generative AI models are not gaining reasoning or sentience and are not on the path to superintelligence.
No horizon
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s time to treat OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and any other company pushing generative AI with suspicion, to see their acts as an investor-approved act of deception, theft and destruction.”
Our reading: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and other generative AI companies should be treated with suspicion as engaged in deception, theft and destruction.
No horizon
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“other than the fact that OpenAI said it cared a lot about safety and only sort-of did, if it really cared at all, which I don't believe it does.”
Our reading: OpenAI does not really care about safety.
No horizon
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And it’s time for the media to start pushing back and asking for real, tangible evidence that anything is actually happening.”
Our reading: The media should push back on AI claims and demand real, tangible evidence.
No horizon
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I’d argue that the Bored Ape Yacht Club has a better chance of delivering, if only because “a blockchain game” would ostensibly use technology that exists.”
Our reading: The author would argue that the Bored Ape Yacht Club has a better chance of delivering its roadmap than OpenAI's Strawberry has of giving LLMs reasoning, if only because a blockchain game would ostensibly use technology that exists.
No horizon
Qualifier: I'd argue
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI's one real innovation is that it's allowed a certain class of scam artist to use the vague idea of "powerful automation" to hype companies to people that don't really know anything.”
Our reading: Generative AI's only real innovation is letting scam artists hype companies with vague promises of powerful automation.
No horizon
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We don't need a story telling us it kind-of-sort-of-rushed a product to market, even though it didn't actually do that, but that this company, on a cultural level, operates without regard for the safety of its users, and is deliberately misrepresenting to outlets like Bloomberg that it is somehow on the path to creating AGI.”
Our reading: OpenAI operates without regard for user safety and deliberately misrepresents that it is on the path to AGI.
No horizon
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“While there's tons of evidence that they're impossible to fix, surely a safety-minded culture would be one that sought to fix or mitigate the most obvious and dangerous problem of Large Language Models.”
Our reading: A safety-minded OpenAI should be investing in mitigating hallucinations.
No horizon
Source: Put Up Or Shut Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I understand that big tech desperately needs this to be the next hypergrowth market as they haven't got any others, but pursuing this quasi-useful environmental disaster-causing cloud efficiency boondoggle will send shockwaves through the industry.”
Our reading: Big tech's pursuit of generative AI will send shockwaves through the tech industry.
No horizon
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While one might argue that it'll mean faster generative processes, there really is no barometer for what "better" looks like, and perhaps that's why ChatGPT, Claude and other LLMs have yet to take a leap beyond being able to generate stuff.”
Our reading: ChatGPT, Claude and other LLMs have not progressed beyond generating content, possibly because there is no measure of what 'better' means.
No horizon
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Generative AI is not the future, but a regurgitation of the past, a useful-yet-not-groundbreaking way to quickly generate "new" data from old that costs far too much to make the compute and energy demands worth it.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not the future but a regurgitation of the past: a useful but not groundbreaking way to quickly generate 'new' data from old, which costs far too much to make its compute and energy demands worth it.
No horizon
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“And fully replacing any creative is so very unlikely if you're doing so based on copying a million pieces of someone else's homework.”
Our reading: Fully replacing any creative worker is very unlikely if it is done by copying a million pieces of someone else's work.
No horizon
Only if: if the replacement is based on copying a million pieces of someone else's homework
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI at best processes information when it trains on data, but at no point does it "learn" or "understand," because everything it's doing is based on ingesting training data and developing answers based on a mathematical sense or probability rather than any appreciation or comprehension of the material itself.”
Our reading: Generative AI does not learn or understand; it produces answers probabilistically from training data.
No horizon
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In essence, replacing humans with AI might break everything if you're one of those bosses that doesn't actually know what the fuck it is they're talking about.”
Our reading: Replacing human workers with AI may break operations when the managers doing it do not understand the work.
No horizon
Only if: if bosses don't understand the work
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It's all a disgraceful waste.”
Our reading: The generative AI boom is a disgraceful waste.
No horizon
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The training data crisis is one that doesn’t get enough attention, but it’s sufficiently dire that it has the potential to halt (or dramatically slow) any AI development in the near future.”
Our reading: The training data shortage could halt or dramatically slow AI development in the near future.
No horizon
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These are not things that you can train in a dataset, because they're derived from experiences inside and outside of the creative process.”
Our reading: The adaptability, judgment and responsibility of human creative workers cannot be trained into AI via datasets.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The statement does not distinguish observable adaptation and judgment from responsibility and lived experience, or define a measurable standard for the combined claim.
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Without a real, tangible breakthrough — one that would require them to leave the world of LLMs entirely, in my opinion — it's unclear how generative AI companies can survive.”
Our reading: Without a real, tangible breakthrough, which in the author's opinion would require leaving LLMs entirely, it is unclear how generative AI companies can survive.
No horizon
Only if: without a real, tangible breakthrough
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“LLMs are entirely different pieces of technology to that of "an artificial intelligence" in the sense that the AI bubble is hyping, and it's disgraceful that the AI industry has taken so much money and attention with such a flagrant, offensive lie.”
Our reading: LLMs are not 'artificial intelligence' as hyped, and the AI industry has raised money on a lie.
No horizon
Source: Pop Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Perhaps Sam Altman's energy breakthrough could be these fucking AI companies being made to pay for new power infrastructure.”
Our reading: AI companies should be made to pay for new power infrastructure.
No horizon
Source: Pop Culture