Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 10 of 13
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1290)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 10 of 13: claims 901 to 1000 of 1290, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Sam Altman is a con artist, a liar, and a sleazy carnival barker who would burn our planet to the ground, steal from millions of people and burn billions of dollars in pursuit of power, and I believe the same can be said of people like Dario Amodei of Anthropic and Mustafa Suleyman of Microsoft.”
Our reading: Sam Altman is a con artist, a liar, and a sleazy carnival barker who would burn the planet to the ground, steal from millions of people, and burn billions of dollars in pursuit of power.
No horizon
Source: Never Forgive Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Sam Altman is a con artist, a liar, and a sleazy carnival barker who would burn our planet to the ground, steal from millions of people and burn billions of dollars in pursuit of power, and I believe the same can be said of people like Dario Amodei of Anthropic and Mustafa Suleyman of Microsoft.”
Our reading: Zitron believes the same can be said of people like Dario Amodei of Anthropic and Mustafa Suleyman of Microsoft: that they are con artists, liars, and sleazy carnival barkers who would burn the planet to the ground, steal from millions of people, and burn billions of dollars in pursuit of power.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe the same can be said
Source: Never Forgive Them
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Microsoft is cherry-picking a number based on non-specific criteria and claiming it's a big deal, when it's actually pretty pathetic considering its capital expenditures will likely hit over $60 billion in 2024.”
Our reading: Microsoft's capital expenditures will likely exceed $60 billion in 2024, making its $10B AI revenue run-rate pathetic.
No horizon
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“While one can dazzle investors with buzzwords and charts, the laws of physics are a far harsher mistress, and if NVIDIA is struggling mere months before the first installations are to begin, it's unclear how it practically launches this generation of chips, let alone continues its yearly cadence.”
Our reading: Given its cooling struggles, it is unclear NVIDIA can practically launch Blackwell, let alone maintain a yearly chip cadence.
No horizon
Only if: NVIDIA struggling with cooling months before installations
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While NVIDIA might be able to fix this problem in isolation within its racks, it remains to be seen how this works at scale as they ship and integrate hundreds of thousands of Blackwell GPUs starting in the front half of 2025.”
Our reading: Even if NVIDIA fixes cooling within its racks, it is uncertain the fix will work at scale as hundreds of thousands of Blackwell GPUs ship from H1 2025.
No horizon
Qualifier: at scale deployment
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While some have claimed that "agents are the next frontier," the reality is that agents may be the last generative AI product — multiple Large Language Models and integrations bouncing off of each other in an attempt to simulate what a human might do at a cost that won't be sustainable for the majority of businesses.”
Our reading: Agents may be the last generative AI product, and their cost won't be sustainable for most businesses.
No horizon
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI isn’t a revolution, it’s an evolution of a tech industry overtaken by growth-hungry management consultant types that neither know the problems that real people face nor how to fix them.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not a revolution but a product of a growth-obsessed tech industry.
No horizon
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The fact that NVIDIA is having such significant difficulties with thermal performance is very, very bad.”
Our reading: It is very, very bad that NVIDIA is having such significant difficulties with thermal performance on its Blackwell racks.
No horizon
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“And worse still, nothing has really come out of this movement.”
Our reading: Nothing has really come out of the generative AI movement.
No horizon
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sam Altman has grown rich and powerful lying about how GPT will somehow lead to AGI, but at this point, what exactly is OpenAI meant to do?”
Our reading: Sam Altman's claims that GPT will lead to AGI are lies.
No horizon
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Even if he ultimately fails, should Musk manage to drag the process out, or delay it temporarily, it could strike a terminal blow for OpenAI.”
Our reading: If Musk delays OpenAI's for-profit conversion, it could be a terminal blow for OpenAI.
No horizon
Only if: if Musk delays OpenAI's for-profit conversion
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Outside of a miracle, we are about to enter an era of desperation in the generative AI space.”
Our reading: Barring a miracle, the generative AI industry is about to enter an era of desperation.
No horizon
Qualifier: outside of a miracle
Source: Godot Isn't Making it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“OpenAI being "worth" $157 billion for a company that burns $5 billion or more a year to make a product that destroys our environment for a product yet to find any real meaning isn't a sign that it should get more coverage or be taken more seriously.”
Our reading: OpenAI's $157 billion valuation is not a reason for it to receive more coverage or be taken more seriously.
No horizon
Source: Lost In The Future
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And yet so much of the tech industry — consumer software like Google, Facebook, Twitter, and even ChatGPT, and business software from companies like Microsoft and Slack — outright sucks, yet gets covered as if that's just "how things are."”
Our reading: So much of the tech industry, including consumer software like Google, Facebook, Twitter and even ChatGPT and business software from companies like Microsoft and Slack, outright sucks, yet is covered as if that is just how things are.
No horizon
Scope: so much of the tech industry
Source: Lost In The Future
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Whatever you may feel about ChatGPT, the coverage it receives is outsized compared to its actual utility and the things built on top of it, and that's a direct result of a media industry that seems incapable of holding the powerful accountable.”
Our reading: ChatGPT's media coverage is outsized compared to its actual utility and the things built on top of it, and this is a direct result of a media industry that seems incapable of holding the powerful accountable.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems incapable
Source: Lost In The Future
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Covering Meta, Twitter, Google, OpenAI and other huge tech companies as if the products they make are remarkable and perfect is disrespectful to readers and a disgusting abdication of responsibility, as their products are, even when they're functional, significantly worse, more annoying, more frustrating and more convoluted than ever”
Our reading: Media should not cover OpenAI and other big tech companies' products as remarkable and perfect, because those products are worse and more frustrating than ever.
No horizon
Source: Lost In The Future
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Third, lines of code is an absolute dogshit metric.”
Our reading: Lines of code is an extremely bad metric for judging software work.
No horizon
Source: The Cult of Microsoft
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Yet to actively encourage the company-wide dilution of performance reviews — and by extension the lives of Microsoft employees — by introducing generative AI is reprehensible.”
Our reading: Actively encouraging the company-wide dilution of performance reviews, and by extension Microsoft employees' lives, by introducing generative AI is reprehensible.
No horizon
Source: The Cult of Microsoft
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“There is a compelling case to be made that we are watching the slow, painful collapse of Google — a company best known for a transformational and beloved product it chose to ruin, helmed by a management consultant that has, for the most part, overseen the decay of its brand.”
Our reading: There is a compelling case that Google is in a slow, painful collapse.
No horizon
Source: Requiem for Raghavan
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It’s more than likely that Google sees AI as fundamental to its future growth and relevance.”
Our reading: Google very likely views AI as fundamental to its future growth and relevance.
No horizon
Source: Requiem for Raghavan
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The medium-to-long-term prognosis is likely even worse.”
Our reading: Google's medium-to-long-term business prognosis is likely worse than its near-term outlook.
No horizon
Source: Requiem for Raghavan
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As part of the Raghavan reorganization, Google is also moving the Gemini App team (the one handling Google's competitor to ChatGPT) under AI research group DeepMind, a move that might be kind of smart in the "hand the AI stuff to the AI people" kind of way, but also suggests that there is a degree of disarray at the company that isn't going to get better in a hurry.”
Our reading: Moving the Gemini App team under DeepMind might be kind of smart, but it also suggests there is a degree of disarray at Google that is not going to get better in a hurry.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests
Source: Requiem for Raghavan
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I am hypothesizing here, but I think that Google is desperate, and that its earnings on October 30th are likely to make the street a little worried.”
Our reading: Google's October 30, 2024 earnings will likely make Wall Street a little worried.
No horizon
Qualifier: author says he is hypothesizing
Source: Requiem for Raghavan
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“or that Meta's AI product's only differentiating feature is that its 500 million monthly active users are helping kill our planet by generating meaningless slop.”
Our reading: Meta's AI product's only differentiating feature is that its 500 million monthly active users are helping kill the planet by generating meaningless slop.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Every single article about OpenAI should include something about the brittleness of its business, and about the many, many half-truths of Sam Altman — yet more often than not these pieces feel like they simply accept that whatever he’s saying is both reasonable and accurate.”
Our reading: Every article about OpenAI should mention the brittleness of its business and Sam Altman's half-truths.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Had Sam Altman not been mythologized, there is far less of a chance that people — both investors and the media — would've taken OpenAI this seriously, and questions around profitability and sustainability would've been immediate problems to address versus "issues" to be "mitigated."”
Our reading: Had Sam Altman not been mythologized, there would have been far less of a chance that investors and the media took OpenAI this seriously, and questions about profitability and sustainability would have been immediate problems to address rather than 'issues' to be 'mitigated'.
No horizon
Only if: had Sam Altman not been mythologized
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“That is, to be frank, extremely bad. These are estimates, but even if they were doubled, these would not be particularly exciting numbers.”
Our reading: The estimated roughly $300 million a year OpenAI makes from business users is extremely bad, and even doubled would not be particularly exciting.
No horizon
Qualifier: these are estimates
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In any case, OpenAI will likely prevail and raise this round from a cadre of investors that will have to invest a minimum of $250 million to put money behind a company that has never turned a profit, that has no path to profitability, and has yet to create a truly meaningful product outside of Sam Altman's marketing expertise.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely succeed in raising its current funding round.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“If OpenAI — which dominates with, I’d wager, at least a 30% market share — is only making $1 billion a year from selling access to its models, and at this stage in the massively-inflated hype bubble, there may not even be $10 billion of annual revenue from companies integrating generative AI into their products.”
Our reading: If OpenAI, which he wagers has at least a 30% market share, makes only $1 billion a year from model access, there may not even be $10 billion of annual revenue from companies integrating generative AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: if OpenAI has at least a 30% share (his wager) and makes only $1 billion a year from model access
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“At this point, it’s hard to see how OpenAI survives.”
Our reading: It is hard to see how OpenAI survives.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If that’s the case, then OpenAI has to raise prices. Also, Microsoft has to raise prices. And that will likely spook those who have gotten used to these subsidized prices — which I discussed in The Subprime AI Crisis a few weeks ago — and they’ll start to disentangle themselves from generative AI.”
Our reading: If OpenAI is underpricing to scale, OpenAI and Microsoft will have to raise prices, which will likely drive customers away from generative AI.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI is deliberately underpricing its models to scale
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI's cloud business — meaning other companies connecting their services to OpenAI's API — is remarkably small, to the point that it suggests there's weaknesses in the generative AI industry writ large.”
Our reading: OpenAI's API business is remarkably small, suggesting weakness across the generative AI industry.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This suggests a fundamental weakness in the revenue model behind GPT, as well as a fundamental weakness in the generative artificial intelligence market writ large.”
Our reading: OpenAI's thin API business indicates fundamental weakness in GPT's revenue model and the generative AI market.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“If I’m right, we’re watching venture capitalists and companies like Microsoft burn tens of billions of dollars to power the next generation of products that nobody gives a shit about.”
Our reading: If he is right, VCs and Microsoft are burning tens of billions on generative AI products nobody cares about.
No horizon
Qualifier: if he is right
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“yet the company says that it expects to make $11.6 billion in 2025 and $100 billion by 2029, a statement so egregious that I am surprised it's not some kind of financial crime to say it out loud.”
Our reading: OpenAI's projections of $11.6B revenue in 2025 and $100B by 2029 are egregiously unrealistic.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“OpenAI is a disaster in the making, and behind it sits a potentially bigger, nastier disaster — a lack of any real strength in the generative AI market.”
Our reading: OpenAI is a disaster in the making, and the generative AI market lacks real strength.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“While 10 million paying subscribers might seem like a lot, "ChatGPT" is effectively to generative AI what "Google" is to search. Ten million people paying for this is table stakes.”
Our reading: Because ChatGPT is to generative AI what Google is to search, ten million paying subscribers is table stakes.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“You see, ChatGPT Plus is not a great business.”
Our reading: ChatGPT Plus is not a great business.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This round is a farce — a group delusion, one borne of one man's uncanny ability to convince clueless idiots that he has some unique insight”
Our reading: OpenAI's funding round is a farce and a group delusion driven by Sam Altman's persuasiveness.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“As a result of these numbers, I have major concerns about the viability of OpenAI's business, and the generative AI market at large.”
Our reading: Because of these API revenue numbers, he has major concerns about the viability of OpenAI's business and of the generative AI market at large.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“These aren’t the actions of a company that’s on the forefront of anything — they’re desperate moves made by desperate people burning the candle at both ends.”
Our reading: OpenAI's rushing of products like o1 is not the action of a company at the forefront but desperate moves by desperate people burning the candle at both ends.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“After all, Anthropic is facing exactly the same problem, and is on course to lose $2.7 billion in 2024 on $800 million in revenue, which makes me think the likelihood of this being a quick fix is extremely low.”
Our reading: Because Anthropic faces the same problem and is on course to lose $2.7 billion in 2024 on $800 million in revenue, he thinks the likelihood of a quick fix for OpenAI's costs is extremely low.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“in simpler terms, that OpenAI will likely raise $6.5 billion in funding, and then have to do so again in short order, likely in perpetuity.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely raise $6.5 billion and then have to raise again soon, likely indefinitely.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“However, OpenAI's costs are likely to increase, because (as the New York Times notes) if this company grows by 300%, it's very likely that the free user base of ChatGPT increases along with it, burdening the company with more costs.”
Our reading: OpenAI's costs are likely to increase because, if the company grows by 300%, it is very likely that ChatGPT's free user base grows with it and adds costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: if the company grows by 300%
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This heavily-suggests that generative AI, as a technology, doesn’t necessarily have a product-market fit.”
Our reading: Generative AI may lack product-market fit.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“OpenAI is trapped.”
Our reading: OpenAI is trapped with no pricing room.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“This is a company lost, bleeding money with every interaction with the customer, flogging software that’s at best kind-of useful and at worst actively harmful.”
Our reading: OpenAI is a company lost, bleeding money with every customer interaction and selling software that is at best kind of useful and at worst actively harmful.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“OpenAI has not had anything truly important since the launch of GPT-3.5, and its recent o-1 model has not been particularly impressive.”
Our reading: OpenAI has not had anything truly important since the launch of GPT-3.5, and its o1 model has not been particularly impressive.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Paying for ChatGPT Plus doesn't dramatically change the product, nor does it offer a particularly-compelling new use case for anyone other than power users.”
Our reading: Paying for ChatGPT Plus doesn't dramatically change the product, nor does it offer a particularly compelling new use case for anyone other than power users.
No horizon
Qualifier: other than power users (applies to compelling use cases)
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“As a company, OpenAI is flat-out terrible at product.”
Our reading: As a company, OpenAI is flat-out terrible at product.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“As I've said before, I believe there's also a subprime AI crisis brewing because OpenAI's API services — which lets people integrate its various models into external products — is currently priced at a loss, and increasing prices will likely make this product unsustainable for many businesses currently relying on these discounted rates.”
Our reading: OpenAI's API is priced at a loss, and raising prices will likely make it unsustainable for many dependent businesses, creating a subprime AI crisis.
No horizon
Qualifier: if prices increase
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I believe the upcoming earnings from Microsoft and Google will further dampen excitement around generative AI, which in turn will reduce the likelihood that developers will integrate GPT further into their products, while also likely depressing market interest in ChatGPT writ large.”
Our reading: He believes upcoming Microsoft and Google earnings will further dampen excitement about generative AI, reducing the likelihood that developers integrate GPT further and likely depressing market interest in ChatGPT.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I'd also argue that those willing to pay for a "Plus" subscription are more likely to use the platform way, way more than free users, which in turn may (as one Redditor hypothesized regarding Anthropic's "Claude Pro" subscription) lose it the revenue on said premium subscriber.”
Our reading: Paying ChatGPT Plus users likely use the service far more than free users, which may make OpenAI lose money on them.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“And if the revenue never arrives, they'll be faced with the same problem as the rest of the tech industry — that they've run out of ideas to generate growth.”
Our reading: If AI revenue never materializes, SaaS companies will face having run out of ideas for growth.
No horizon
Only if: if AI revenue never arrives
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“If I had to guess, it’s about as deeply unprofitable as a SaaS company has ever been, and there is no real turning that around.”
Our reading: If he had to guess, Glean is about as deeply unprofitable as a SaaS company has ever been, and there is no real turning that around.
No horizon
Qualifier: if I had to guess
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Especially in the case of Microsoft, which will likely only ever make money from AI by selling compute.”
Our reading: Microsoft will likely only ever make money from AI by selling compute.
No horizon
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“As a result, generative AI kind of felt like the perfect SaaS snake oil, a magical new way to indefinitely charge customers for the thing that they already should have.”
Our reading: Generative AI kind of felt like the perfect SaaS snake oil, a magical new way to indefinitely charge customers for things they already should have.
No horizon
Qualifier: kind of felt like
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“One has to wonder if Microsoft365's "Copilots" are equally unprofitable. I'd wager they are.”
Our reading: Microsoft 365 Copilots are probably as unprofitable as GitHub Copilot.
No horizon
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In fact, I think they're doing their best to hide the fact that it isn't selling at all, and costs more money than it makes when it does.”
Our reading: He thinks SaaS companies are doing their best to hide that their generative AI isn't selling at all and costs more money than it makes when it does sell.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Much like the feared commercial real estate bubble, SaaS may see its own series of dramatic price cuts to its AI tools as a means of competing and showing growth to the markets...despite the costs staying the same, or possibly increasing.”
Our reading: SaaS companies may engage in a race to the bottom with dramatic AI tool price cuts while costs stay flat or rise.
No horizon
Qualifier: costs staying the same or increasing
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As organizations build their own AI integrations — through either paying for compute for their own purpose-built solutions or by integrating OpenAI's GPT — there is likely to be some revenue growth in cloud providers.”
Our reading: Cloud providers will likely see some revenue growth as organizations build their own AI integrations.
No horizon
Qualifier: as organizations build their own AI integrations
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Because, let’s face it, every generative AI product we’ve seen from Big Tech has been underwhelming.”
Our reading: Every generative AI product we have seen from Big Tech has been underwhelming.
No horizon
Scope: products we've seen from Big Tech
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And if Salesforce — considered the prize growth-pig of the SaaS hogs — isn't growing, then the rest of the market should be terrified.”
Our reading: If Salesforce is not growing, the rest of the SaaS market should be terrified.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Salesforce isn't growing
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“As I hinted earlier, I see the enterprise and the SaaS market as the commercial real estate arm of the Subprime AI Crisis — an industry desperate for growth attaching itself to an unprofitable, unsustainable technology that they invested in in the hopes that it would fuel a decade or more of revenue growth.”
Our reading: The enterprise SaaS market is the 'commercial real estate' of a Subprime AI Crisis, tied to an unprofitable, unsustainable technology.
No horizon
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While it's possible that Microsoft could have found ways to make Github Copilot more efficient, this seriously suggests that Microsoft 365 Copilot loses money in much the same way, though generating code is a little more compute-intensive.”
Our reading: Microsoft 365 Copilot likely loses money per user, as GitHub Copilot was reported to.
No horizon
Qualifier: unless Microsoft made Copilot more efficient
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“For me to be wrong, there will have to be sudden, remarkable changes in either enterprise software spend, or the capabilities and costs of generative AI itself.”
Our reading: His thesis about SaaS and generative AI holds unless enterprise software spend or generative AI's capabilities and costs change suddenly and remarkably.
No horizon
Only if: absent sudden remarkable changes in enterprise software spend or generative AI capabilities and costs
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I deeply worry about the prospect of mass layoffs being used to fund the movement, and nothing about the last few years makes me think they’ll do the right thing and walk away from AI.”
Our reading: He deeply worries that mass layoffs may be used to fund big tech's AI push, and nothing about recent years makes him think they will do the right thing and walk away from AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: I deeply worry
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“That it will become artificial intelligence.”
Our reading: It is a lie that generative AI will become artificial intelligence.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I realize I sound a little crazy suggesting this, but back in March I made the point that I could find no companies that had integrated generative AI in a way that has truly benefited their bottom line, and just under six months later, I'm still looking.”
Our reading: He has found no company whose generative AI integration has truly benefited its bottom line.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“But the tech industry is building toward a grotesque reckoning with a lack of creativity enabled by an economy that rewards growth over innovation, monopolization over loyalty, and management over those who actually build things.”
Our reading: The tech industry is building toward a grotesque reckoning with a lack of creativity, enabled by an economy that rewards growth over innovation, monopolization over loyalty, and management over builders.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“After developing and launching these features, they find customers don't want to pay for them, as Microsoft has found with its 365 Copilot, and if they can't find a way to make them pay for it now, during the AI boom, they're going to be hard pressed to once people's bosses stop asking them to "get in on AI."”
Our reading: In one of several hypothesized scenarios, companies that can't get customers to pay for AI features now, during the boom, will be hard pressed to once bosses stop pushing people to get in on AI.
No horizon
Only if: if they can't get customers to pay during the AI boom
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“That it's artificial intelligence.”
Our reading: It is a lie that generative AI is artificial intelligence.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Last week, we got our first real, definitive glimpse of what’s around that corner that future. And boy, was it underwhelming.”
Our reading: OpenAI's o1 launch last week, the first real, definitive glimpse of the next generation of models, was underwhelming.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In any case, it's time to accept that the money isn't there.”
Our reading: People should accept that the money in generative AI isn't there.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“That it is inevitable.”
Our reading: It is a lie that generative AI is inevitable.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I’m going to paint you a bleak picture — not just for the big AI players, but for tech more widely, and for the people who work at tech companies — and tell you why I think the conclusion to this sordid saga, as brutal and damaging as it will be, is coming sooner than you think.”
Our reading: The end of the generative AI boom will be brutal and damaging and is coming sooner than people think.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I worry, somewhat, that option 2 is far more possible: that these companies are deeply committed to the idea that "AI is the future," and their cultures are so thoroughly disconnected from the creation of software that solves the problems that real people face that they'll burn the entire company to the ground.”
Our reading: Big tech may well choose to cut costs and lay off workers to sustain generative AI spending, burning their companies to the ground.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“All this could’ve been stopped earlier if the media had actually held them accountable.”
Our reading: The generative AI hype could have been stopped earlier if the media had held tech companies accountable.
No horizon
Qualifier: if media had held companies accountable
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We’re not “in the early days.””
Our reading: Generative AI is not in its early days, given over $150 billion spent since November 2022.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“What's important to remember here is that other than AI, big tech is out of ideas.”
Our reading: Other than AI, big tech has no new growth ideas.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI is shoving Strawberry out the door as a means of proving to investors (and the greater public) that the AI revolution is still here, and what they have is a clunky, unexciting and expensive model.”
Our reading: OpenAI is pushing out o1 (Strawberry) to prove to investors and the wider public that the AI revolution is still here, but what it has is a clunky, unexciting and expensive model.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Yet, unlike cryptocurrency and the metaverse, everybody has joined the party and decided to burn money pursuing an unsustainable, unreliable, unprofitable, and environmentally-destructive boondoggle sold to customers and businesses as "artificial intelligence" that will "automate everything" without it ever having a path to do so.”
Our reading: Unlike with crypto and the metaverse, everybody has joined in burning money on generative AI, an unsustainable, unreliable, unprofitable, environmentally destructive boondoggle sold as AI that will automate everything without any path to doing so.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I hypothesize a kind of subprime AI crisis is brewing, where almost the entire tech industry has bought in on a technology sold at a vastly-discounted rate, heavily-centralized and subsidized by big tech.”
Our reading: He hypothesizes that a kind of subprime AI crisis is brewing, with almost the entire tech industry bought in on a technology sold at vastly discounted rates, heavily centralized and subsidized by big tech.
No horizon
Qualifier: I hypothesize
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It has massive, intractable problems as a result of these models being probabilistic, meaning that they don't know anything, they're just generating an answer (or an image, or a translation, or a summary) based on training data, something that model developers are running out of at an incredible pace.”
Our reading: Generative AI has intractable problems because its models are probabilistic and don't know anything, and developers are rapidly running out of training data.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In fact, I'd argue that o1 shows that OpenAI is both desperate and out of ideas.”
Our reading: o1 shows that OpenAI is desperate and out of ideas.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This point also illustrates one of the biggest problems with generative AI — that, while "powerful" in some vague way, said power mostly boils down to "generates stuff based on other stuff" rather than any "intelligence."”
Our reading: Generative AI's power mostly amounts to generating stuff based on other stuff, not intelligence.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In effect, investors aren't getting a piece of OpenAI, or any kind of control over OpenAI, but rather shares in the future profits of a company that loses over five billion dollars a year, and will likely lose more in 2025, if it makes it that far.”
Our reading: OpenAI, which loses over $5 billion a year, will likely lose more in 2025, if it makes it that far.
No horizon
Only if: if it makes it that far
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Based on The Information's estimates, Microsoft has somewhere between 400,000 and 4 million users for its Office Copilot features, meaning that there's a decent chance that Microsoft has built out capacity that isn't getting used.”
Our reading: There is a decent chance Microsoft has built data center capacity for Copilot that is not being used.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“While there may be companies "integrating AI" that are driving some degree of spend on Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, I hypothesize a lot of this demand is driven by investor sentiment, with companies “investing in AI” to keep the markets happy rather than any cost/benefit analysis or actual utility.”
Our reading: He hypothesizes that a lot of cloud demand from companies integrating AI is driven by investor sentiment, with companies investing in AI to keep markets happy rather than for cost/benefit or actual utility.
No horizon
Qualifier: I hypothesize
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Based on how unprofitable they are, I hypothesize that if OpenAI or Anthropic charged prices closer to their actual costs, there would be a ten-to-a-hundred-times increase in the price of API calls, though it's impossible to say how much without the actual numbers.”
Our reading: He hypothesizes that if OpenAI or Anthropic charged prices closer to their actual costs, API prices would rise ten to a hundred times, though he says the amount is impossible to know without the actual numbers.
No horizon
Only if: if they charged prices closer to actual costs
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While The Information reported that OpenAI's revenue is $3.5 to $4.5 billion a year in July, The New York Times reported last week that OpenAI's annual revenues have "now topped $2 billion," which would mean that the end-of-year numbers will likely trend toward the lower end of the estimate.”
Our reading: OpenAI's 2024 end-of-year revenue will likely trend toward the lower end of the $3.5–4.5 billion estimate.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“This is the most likely path for Amazon and Google, who, while desperate to make Wall Street happy, still have their own profitable monopolies to point to — for now, at least.”
Our reading: The most likely path for Amazon and Google is a Meta-style 'year of efficiency': reducing capital expenditures, laying people off, and promising to slow investment somewhat, since they still have profitable monopolies to point to, for now.
No horizon
Qualifier: for now, at least
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“I also fear that said collapse could be ruinous to big tech, deeply damaging to the startup ecosystem, and will further sour public support for the tech industry.”
Our reading: He fears that the collapse of the generative AI boom could be ruinous to big tech and deeply damaging to the startup ecosystem, and will further sour public support for the tech industry.
No horizon
Only if: if the generative AI boom collapses
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“I believe that a lot of businesses are "trying" AI at the moment, and once those trials end (Gartner predicts that 30% of generative AI projects will be abandoned after their proof of concepts by end of 2025), they'll likely stop paying for the extra features, or stop integrating generative AI into their companies' products.”
Our reading: Once their AI trials end, many businesses will likely stop paying for AI features or stop integrating generative AI into products.
No horizon
Only if: once AI trials end
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While we can’t know for sure, I imagine if this stuff was in any way profitable, they’d be talking about the revenue they were receiving from it.”
Our reading: While admitting he can't know for sure, he imagines that if generative AI were in any way profitable for the hyperscalers, they would be talking about the revenue from it, and they are not.
No horizon
Qualifier: while we can't know for sure, I imagine
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As I discussed at the end of July, OpenAI needs to raise at least $3 billion — but more like $10 billion to survive, as it is on course to lose $5 billion in 2024, a number that's likely to increase as more complex models demand more compute and more training data, with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicting that future models may cost as much as $100 billion to train.”
Our reading: OpenAI's annual losses are likely to increase beyond $5 billion as more complex models demand more compute and training data.
No horizon
Qualifier: as more complex models demand more compute and training data
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While this sounds like a seismic breakthrough, or even another step towards the highly-feted artificial general intelligence (AGI) — it isn’t — and you can tell by the fact that OpenAI opted to release o1 as its own standalone product, rather than a number update to GPT.”
Our reading: o1's chain-of-thought approach is not a seismic breakthrough or a step toward AGI.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI is more than likely charging only a small percentage of what it likely costs to run its models, and can only continue to do so if it is able to continually raise more venture funding than has ever been raised and continue to receive preferential pricing from Microsoft, a company that recently mentioned that it considers OpenAI a competitor.”
Our reading: OpenAI likely charges only a small fraction of its running costs and can only continue if it keeps raising record venture funding and receiving Microsoft's preferential pricing.
No horizon
Qualifier: can continue only with record fundraising and Microsoft preferential pricing
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And even if they did, it isn't clear whether generative AI actually provides much business value at all.”
Our reading: It is not clear that generative AI provides much business value at all.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It has described the reinforcement training process as “thinking” and “reasoning,” when, in fact, it’s making guesses, and then guessing on the correctness of those guesses at each step, where the end destination is often something that can be known in advance.”
Our reading: o1 does not think or reason; it makes guesses and then guesses about the correctness of those guesses.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis