Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 5 of 13
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1290)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 5 of 13: claims 401 to 500 of 1290, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Organizations aren’t burning millions or hundreds of millions of dollars a year on AI because it’s good, they’re doing it because they are run by people who do not know what the fuck they’re doing.”
Our reading: Organizations spend heavily on AI because of incompetent leadership, not because AI is good.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This might be because Anthropic obfuscates the data that might tell customers the real costs.”
Our reading: Executives pushing AI use without knowing what it costs might be because Anthropic obfuscates the data that might tell customers the real costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: might be because
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And it all comes back to a very simple point: AI is too expensive.”
Our reading: AI is too expensive.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Sidenote: I have absolutely no idea what Meta does, and my chaos bet is that it starts renting out its compute to Anthropic or OpenAI when things get rough.”
Our reading: As a speculative bet, Meta may start renting its compute to Anthropic or OpenAI when things get rough.
No horizon
Only if: when things get rough
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Numerous reports about how Anthropic will turn “cash flow positive” in either 2027 or 2028 are fantastical, illogical, entirely driven by ridiculous projections, and should never have been reported as anything other than an attempt by companies to mislead their investors.”
Our reading: Numerous reports that Anthropic will turn cash-flow positive in 2027 or 2028 are fantastical, illogical and driven entirely by ridiculous projections, and should never have been reported as anything other than an attempt by companies to mislead their investors.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The fact it had to raise $30 billion in February, $15 billion in April, and now $30 billion more in May all while allegedly pulling in more than $3 billion a month in revenue suggests that its COGS are fucking horrendous, and its growth is coming at a terrible financial cost.”
Our reading: Anthropic's raising $30 billion in February, $15 billion in April and $30 billion in May while allegedly bringing in more than $3 billion a month suggests its COGS are horrendous and its growth is coming at a terrible financial cost.
No horizon
Qualifier: allegedly
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I also cannot find an economic scenario where this pays itself off.”
Our reading: Zitron says he cannot find an economic scenario in which hyperscalers' AI capex pays itself off.
No horizon
Qualifier: I cannot find
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Before AI, this wasn’t as much of a problem, in the sense that inefficiencies and wasted hours weren’t directly connected to a chatbot that is specifically designed to burn money.”
Our reading: AI chatbots are designed to burn money, tying workplace inefficiency directly to a growing cost.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“To be very clear about what I mean, I think there is currently an AI token binge across both Anthropic and OpenAI.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks there is currently an AI token binge across both Anthropic and OpenAI.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Anthropic is a company purpose-built to con people into giving it by money by making people feel smart.”
Our reading: Anthropic is a company purpose-built to con people into giving it money by making them feel smart.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In reality, data center companies actively deceive the media and customers about the actual status of projects, most likely because it’s really, really difficult to build a data center.”
Our reading: Data center companies actively deceive the media and customers about project status, most likely because data centers are very hard to build.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Something doesn’t line up, and it’s exactly the kind of misalignment that happens in a bubble — when infrastructural reality disconnects from the financials.”
Our reading: Something doesn't line up between AI infrastructure and the financials, and it is exactly the kind of misalignment that happens in a bubble, when infrastructural reality disconnects from the financials.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Nobody has built a 1GW data center, so I severely doubt Mr. Dogshit will be able to do anything other than create another scandal and lose a bunch of people’s money.”
Our reading: Kevin O'Leary's planned 9GW Utah data center will very likely not be built; it will more likely end in scandal and lost investor money.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In other words, any time you hear about a “new data center project,” add a year or two to whatever projection they give. If it’s 2027, assume 2029, or that it never gets built.”
Our reading: Readers should add one to two years to any announced data center completion date, or assume the project will never be built.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Let’s go back to Anthropic mopping up Musk’s fallow data center capacity, which stinks of desperation for both companies.”
Our reading: Anthropic taking up Musk's fallow data center capacity stinks of desperation for both companies.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These are intentionally attempts to obfuscate the actual progress of the data center buildout”
Our reading: Calling partly built data centers like Project Rainier and Stargate Abilene 'operational' is a deliberate attempt to hide how far the buildout has actually progressed.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Many took this to mean “Google is doubling its capacity every six months,” but I think it’s far more likely that Google is taking on capacity requests from Anthropic that are making said capacity demands necessary.”
Our reading: Google's stated need to double capacity every six months more likely reflects Anthropic's capacity requests than actual doubling of capacity.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Based on what I’ve found, I’d be surprised if more than 3GW of actual capacity was turned on in the last two years, which means that NVIDIA has sold anywhere from double to triple the amount of GPUs that the world can hold.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that more than 3GW of capacity was turned on worldwide in the past two years, which would mean NVIDIA sold two to three times as many GPUs as can be housed.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It feels like Jensen Huang might have run the largest preorder campaign of all time.”
Our reading: It feels like Jensen Huang might have run the largest preorder campaign of all time.
No horizon
Qualifier: it feels like
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If data centers are not getting built in anything approaching a reasonable timeline, that makes the future of these companies only as viable as the construction projects themselves.”
Our reading: If data centers are not built on a reasonable timeline, the futures of companies like NVIDIA's suppliers, AMD, Microsoft, Google, Oracle and Amazon are only as viable as those construction projects.
No horizon
Only if: if data centers are not built on a reasonable timeline
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“There’s supposedly incredible, unstoppable demand for AI compute, and Microsoft is apparently sitting on gigawatts’ worth, but somehow those gigawatts don’t seem to be translating into gigabillions, likely because they don’t fucking exist.”
Our reading: Microsoft's claimed gigawatts of new capacity are not producing matching revenue, most likely because that capacity does not exist.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“This is setting up a horrifying situation where Oracle desperately needs OpenAI to pay it for capacity that doesn’t exist, and if it ever gets built, it’s likely to be years after OpenAI has run out of money”
Our reading: If Oracle's capacity for OpenAI ever gets built, it will likely be years after OpenAI has run out of money.
No horizon
Only if: if it ever gets built
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I have serious doubts that Microsoft stood up a 350MW data center in less than a year, given everything else I’m about to explain.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that Microsoft built Fairwater Atlanta to 350MW of capacity in under a year.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sidenote: This also really makes me doubt that Microsoft has been bringing a gigawatt of GPU capacity for two quarters straight.”
Our reading: Microsoft's depreciation figures make it doubtful that it added a gigawatt of GPU capacity in each of the last two quarters.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Actually, it’s probably important to state that I don’t think the majority of these projects are doing anything untoward I just don’t think any of them realized how difficult it is to build a data center, and unlike basically any other problem the tech industry has ever faced, simply throwing as much money as possible at it doesn’t really change the limits of physical construction.”
Our reading: Zitron does not think the majority of these data center projects are doing anything untoward; he thinks none of the builders realized how difficult it is to build a data center, and throwing as much money as possible at it does not really change the limits of physical construction.
No horizon
Qualifier: I don't think / I just don't think
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In reality, they’re the paypigs for Anthropic and OpenAI, providing more than 70% of their compute as a means of artificially inflating their AI revenues, knowing that analysts and the media will nod and smile without a single thought.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Amazon and Google are paypigs for Anthropic and OpenAI, providing more than 70% of their compute as a means of artificially inflating their AI revenues, knowing analysts and the media will not question it.
No horizon
Qualifier: 'their compute' is ambiguous between the labs' and the hyperscalers' compute
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“At some point these fucknuts are going to be forced to reckon with what they’re doing.”
Our reading: At some point the hyperscalers are going to be forced to reckon with what they are doing.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“If this breaks OpenAI I’ll be very surprised, but if it does it would be extremely fitting that Elon would accidentally destroy the AI industry, like Mr. Bean sitting on a button that launches a nuke.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI breaks OpenAI.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Only Microsoft was smart enough to realize the problem, which is why it allowed Oracle to take over the majority of OpenAI’s future capacity (which may kill Oracle, by the way!), but both Google and Amazon keep feeding Anthropic money so that Anthropic can feed it right back to them.”
Our reading: Taking over the majority of OpenAI's future capacity may kill Oracle.
No horizon
Qualifier: Oracle taking over majority of OpenAI's future capacity
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Google has intentionally bucketed AI-related revenue into Google Cloud so that finance and tech journalists will claim that AI is what’s driving this growth despite there being no proof that that’s the case.”
Our reading: Google intentionally lumps AI revenue into Google Cloud so journalists credit AI for growth without proof.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Google, Microsoft and Amazon’s AI Revenues Are Almost Entirely Based on Circular Financing Relationships That Should Be Illegal”
Our reading: Google, Microsoft and Amazon's AI revenues rest almost entirely on circular financing relationships, which should be illegal.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It’s a mess, and a mistake, and eventually one of them is going to grow tired of it.”
Our reading: The arrangement is a mess and a mistake, and eventually one of the hyperscalers is going to grow tired of it.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“One of the reasons that Google might not want to break out its AI revenues is that they’re — much like Amazon — heavily-inflated by Anthropic’s compute spend.”
Our reading: Google may not break out AI revenue because it is heavily inflated by Anthropic's compute spend.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I truly think that it’s going to be like this if not crazier until one day when the music suddenly stops. Somebody is going to blink.”
Our reading: The AI frenzy will continue or intensify until it suddenly stops when someone blinks.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The only reason Google, Amazon and Microsoft are being tolerated at their current excess is because their non-AI segments continue to grow through endless price-increases and enshittification, and its external business units — by which I mean OpenAI and Anthropic — are yet to die.”
Our reading: The only reason Google, Amazon and Microsoft are tolerated at their current excess is that their non-AI segments keep growing through endless price increases and enshittification, and OpenAI and Anthropic have yet to die.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“These companies are deliberately refusing to share their AI revenues: and it’s time for the tech and business media to begin asking them why!”
Our reading: The media should ask big tech why they deliberately refuse to share AI revenues.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Remember: Microsoft and Amazon are intentionally obfuscating their AI revenues by using “annualized” — a term they refuse to define that usually refers to a monthly figure times 12 — to define something in statements related to quarterly revenue.”
Our reading: Microsoft and Amazon intentionally obfuscate AI revenue by reporting undefined annualized figures.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This isn’t real demand!”
Our reading: Anthropic's circular TPU arrangement with Google does not represent real demand.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Meta, on the other hand, has little real AI story, and can’t even seem to get its metrics straight on what AI is doing for the company”
Our reading: Meta has little real AI story and can't even seem to get its metrics straight on what AI is doing for the company.
No horizon
Qualifier: can't even seem to
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This is an ugly, wasteful, distressed company that has no idea what to do anymore, run by a mad king who literally cannot be fired”
Our reading: Meta is a wasteful, distressed company with no idea what to do.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This is effectively killing the product as they know it, and invalidates every single story about its revenue growth ever written.”
Our reading: Microsoft shifting GitHub Copilot to token-based billing is effectively killing the product as they know it and invalidates every story about its revenue growth ever written.
No horizon
Qualifier: shift to token-based billing
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These relationships are utterly poisonous, and an intentional attempt to deceive investors and the general public.”
Our reading: The circular hyperscaler-AI lab relationships are an intentional attempt to deceive investors and the public.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“These periods match up exactly to Anthropic’s big jumps in revenue from Q2 2025 (around $3 billion ARR) to Q3 2025 (around $7 billion ARR) to Q4 2025 (around $9 billion ARR) to Q1 2026 (around $19 billion ARR), which suggests that Anthropic’s growth is what’s actually boosting Google Cloud.”
Our reading: Google Cloud's growth periods match Anthropic's big revenue jumps from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026, which suggests Anthropic's growth is what is actually boosting Google Cloud.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests, based on matching timing
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The story of massive AI demand is a lie — a trillion dollars annihilated to create the largest circle jerk of all time.”
Our reading: The story of massive AI demand is a lie built on circular spending.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“If it were an ethical business, it would simply stop taking on new clients, much like GitHub Copilot did as it transitions to token-based billing.”
Our reading: Anthropic should stop taking on new clients while capacity-constrained.
No horizon
Qualifier: given capacity crunch
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Google and Amazon realize their AI revenues are contingent on the continued survival of Anthropic, and Amazon and Microsoft’s revenues are contingent on OpenAI AND Anthropic.”
Our reading: Google and Amazon realize their AI revenues are contingent on Anthropic's continued survival, and Amazon and Microsoft's revenues are contingent on both OpenAI and Anthropic.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It’s the largest bubble in history, and has reached such an intellectual and financial scale that many have taken sides on it in a way that will be completely impossible to walk back if they’re wrong.”
Our reading: AI is the largest bubble in history and has reached such a scale that many have taken sides in a way that will be impossible to walk back if they are wrong.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Otherwise, Microsoft’s 20 million Copilot 365 subscribers likely pay no more than $7 billion a year.”
Our reading: Microsoft's 20 million Copilot 365 subscribers likely pay no more than $7 billion a year.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“As things deteriorate, expect them to cling to their mythologies tighter and become more agitated.”
Our reading: As the AI situation deteriorates, boosters will cling more tightly to their narratives and grow more agitated.
No horizon
Only if: as things deteriorate
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It’s an insult to both good software and good taste — the most-expensive, least-reliable applications ever invented, their mistakes forgiven, their mediocrities celebrated, their infrastructure hailed as an inert god of capital.”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's products are the most expensive and least reliable applications ever made.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Members of the media, I say this with abundant respect: Anthropic is mistreating its customers, and it is doing so because it believes it can get away with it.”
Our reading: Anthropic is mistreating its customers, and it does so because it believes it can get away with it.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“This will likely lead to more layoffs to keep up with the cost, as was the case with Meta, and then an eventual pullback when somebody asks “does any of this shit actually help us do our jobs faster or better?””
Our reading: If investors begin to question mounting R&D costs as revenue growth fails to follow, this will likely lead to more layoffs to keep up with the cost and then an eventual pullback.
No horizon
Only if: investors begin to question mounting R&D costs when revenue growth fails to follow
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In reality, that 10-person, $1250-a-month Teams subscription likely burns anywhere from $5000 to $10,000 a month in API calls, if not more.”
Our reading: A 10-person $1,250-a-month Claude Teams subscription likely burns $5,000 to $10,000 or more a month in API-equivalent costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: 10-person team
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As a result, every AI data center starts millions of dollars in the hole, and even with six-year-long depreciation schedules, takes years to pay off… and with NVIDIA’s yearly upgrade cycle, those GPUs are unlikely to make that much money once you’re done with your first customer contract.”
Our reading: AI data centers take years to pay off, and their GPUs are unlikely to earn much after the first customer contract because of NVIDIA's yearly upgrade cycle.
No horizon
Qualifier: given NVIDIA's yearly upgrade cycle
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Generative AI is an insult. It is unreliable, its economics don’t make sense, its outcomes don’t justify its existence, and the perpetrators of its con are boring, oafish and avaricious men disconnected from society and anybody who would ever disagree with them.”
Our reading: Generative AI is an insult: it is unreliable, its economics don't make sense, its outcomes don't justify its existence, and the perpetrators of its con are boring, oafish and avaricious men disconnected from society.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I realize it seems a little much, but I genuinely believe that subscription-based AI services were an act of deception tantamount to fraud, as they misrepresented the core unit economics and thus the possibilities of a Large Language Model.”
Our reading: He genuinely believes subscription-based AI services were an act of deception tantamount to fraud, because they misrepresented the core unit economics and thus the possibilities of LLMs.
No horizon
Qualifier: I genuinely believe
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In reality, that 10-person, $1250-a-month Teams subscription likely burns anywhere from $5000 to $10,000 a month in API calls, if not more.”
Our reading: A 10-person $1,250/month Claude Teams subscription likely burns $5,000–$10,000 or more a month in API-equivalent costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: 10-person team
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As a result, every AI data center starts millions of dollars in the hole, and even with six-year-long depreciation schedules, takes years to pay off… and with NVIDIA’s yearly upgrade cycle, those GPUs are unlikely to make that much money once you’re done with your first customer contract.”
Our reading: AI data centers take years to pay off, and their GPUs are unlikely to earn much after the first customer contract due to NVIDIA's yearly upgrade cycle.
No horizon
Qualifier: NVIDIA's yearly upgrade cycle
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Generative AI is an insult. It is unreliable, its economics don’t make sense, its outcomes don’t justify its existence, and the perpetrators of its con are boring, oafish and avaricious men disconnected from society and anybody who would ever disagree with them.”
Our reading: Generative AI is an insult: it is unreliable, its economics don't make sense, its outcomes don't justify its existence, and the perpetrators of its con are boring, oafish and avaricious men disconnected from society.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While this might be possible within the slush fund mindset of a well-funded startup or a banana republic like Meta, any business that actually cares about its costs will have a great deal of trouble justifying spending five or six figures in extra costs on a service that “increases productivity” in a way that nobody can seem to measure.”
Our reading: Any business that actually cares about its costs will have a great deal of trouble justifying five or six figures in extra costs on a service whose claimed productivity increase nobody can seem to measure, though this might be possible for well-funded startups or companies like Meta.
No horizon
Scope: any business that actually cares about its costs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Had users been forced to pay their actual rates, I imagine many would’ve bounced off the product immediately, as it’s very, very easy to burn through $5 of tokens if you’re fucking around and exploring what an LLM can do.”
Our reading: If users had paid actual token costs, many likely would have abandoned AI products immediately.
No horizon
Qualifier: had users paid actual rates
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The real thing to look out for — a true pale horse — will be a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moving all of its subscribers to token-based billing. Once that happens, you’ll know it’s closing time.”
Our reading: If a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moves all of its subscribers to token-based billing, that will be a 'true pale horse' signalling that it is 'closing time'.
No horizon
Only if: a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moves all of its subscribers to token-based billing
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“And once everybody switches to token-based billing, I’m not sure we’ll see quite as much hype around generative AI.”
Our reading: Once token-based billing becomes universal, hype around generative AI may diminish.
No horizon
Only if: everybody switches to token-based billing
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The real thing to look out for — a true pale horse — will be a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moving all of its subscribers to token-based billing. Once that happens, you’ll know it’s closing time.”
Our reading: If a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moves all of its subscribers to token-based billing, that will be a true pale horse and you will know it is closing time.
No horizon
Only if: if a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moves all of its subscribers to token-based billing
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“AI is a con, and this is how the con works.”
Our reading: The AI industry is a con.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“And once everybody switches to token-based billing, I’m not sure we’ll see quite as much hype around generative AI.”
Our reading: Once everyone switches to token-based billing, hype around generative AI may decline.
No horizon
Only if: once everybody switches to token-based billing
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Sidenote: In fact, you can burn a great deal of money without ever getting the outcome you desire, because LLMs aren’t really artificial intelligence at all!”
Our reading: You can burn a great deal of money without ever getting the outcome you want, because LLMs are not really artificial intelligence at all.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I imagine OpenAI's answer would be "we're going to be serving these customers ads" and "some of them will pay $8 a month," neither of which are substantive.”
Our reading: The answers he imagines OpenAI giving, that it will serve ChatGPT Go customers ads and that some of them will pay $8 a month, are not substantive responses to the revenue shortfall.
No horizon
Qualifier: I imagine OpenAI's answer would be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“I should also add that adding 109 million new subscribers at any price point will likely massively increase OpenAI's burn-rate.”
Our reading: If OpenAI adds 109 million new subscribers at any price, its burn rate will likely rise massively.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI adds 109 million new subscribers
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“A flat 10% bump on the cost of software engineering is the direct opposite of what AI was meant to do, and in the event that costs continue to rise, I’m not sure how anybody justifies the expense much further.”
Our reading: A flat 10% increase in software engineering costs is the direct opposite of what AI was meant to do, and if costs continue to rise he is not sure how anybody justifies the expense much further.
No horizon
Only if: in the event that costs continue to rise
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“But every sign points to me being right, and if I’m right at the scale I think I’m right, I think we’re about to have a legitimacy crisis in investing and mainstream media, because regular people are keenly aware that something isn’t right, in many cases, it’s because they’re able to count.”
Our reading: If he is right at the scale he thinks he is, he thinks investing and mainstream media are about to have a legitimacy crisis, because regular people are keenly aware that something isn't right.
No horizon
Only if: if I'm right at the scale I think I'm right
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s start with a fairly direct statement: Anthropic should stop taking on new customers until it works out its capacity issues.”
Our reading: Anthropic should stop accepting new customers until it resolves its capacity issues.
No horizon
Qualifier: until it resolves its capacity issues
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We’re likely hitting the absolute physical limits of available AI compute capacity, if we haven’t already done so”
Our reading: The AI industry is likely hitting, or has already hit, the physical limits of available AI compute capacity.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Though my arguments might be verbose, they’re ultimately pretty simple: AI does not provide even an iota of the benefits — economic or otherwise — to justify its ruinous costs.”
Our reading: AI does not provide even an iota of the benefits, economic or otherwise, that would justify its ruinous costs.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Though Microsoft is yet to formally announce the move to Token-Based Billing, I imagine it’ll be sometime this week that it rips off the bandage.”
Our reading: Microsoft will probably formally announce token-based billing for GitHub Copilot this week.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“These deals shouldn’t be legal.”
Our reading: Deals like Anthropic's agreement to spend $100 billion on AWS as part of Amazon's investment in it should not be legal.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I’ve literally never seen a company do this outside of products it intended to kill entirely, and that’s likely because — per my source — it intends to move paid customers over to token-based-billing”
Our reading: Microsoft's halt to new paid GitHub Copilot signups is likely because, per his source, it intends to move paid customers to token-based billing.
No horizon
Qualifier: per my source
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Anthropic is a con, and said con is only made possible through endless, specious hype.”
Our reading: Anthropic is a con sustained by hype.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Companies did this to grow their subscriber numbers, and I think they assumed things would get cheaper somehow.”
Our reading: AI companies subsidized subscriptions to grow their subscriber numbers, and he thinks they assumed things would somehow get cheaper.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Cursor is also reportedly at $6 billion in annualized revenue (or around $500 million a month) and “gross margin positive” — which I also doubt given that it had to raise over $3 billion last year and is apparently raising another $2 billion this year.”
Our reading: Cursor is probably not gross margin positive as reported.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“If, in fact, NVIDIA is actually selling as many GPUs as it says, it’s likely taking liberties with “transfers of ownership” where NVIDIA marks a product as “sold” to somebody that has yet to actually take it on.”
Our reading: If NVIDIA is selling as many GPUs as it claims, it is likely booking sales before customers actually take delivery.
No horizon
Qualifier: if NVIDIA is selling as many GPUs as it says
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“This suggests that changes are to come for all subscription tiers, as he also added that Claude's Max plan was released before Claude Code and Claude Cowork, and "...designed for heavy chat usage, that's it."”
Our reading: Avasare's statements suggest Anthropic will likely change all of its subscription tiers, including Max.
No horizon
Qualifier: based on Avasare's statements that current plans weren't built for this usage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This is likely another cost-cutting move that follows a recent change (per The Information) that forced enterprise users to pay on a per-million-token based rate rather than having rate limits that were, based on researchers' findings, often much higher than the cost of the subscription.”
Our reading: Anthropic's apparent removal of Claude Code from its $20-a-month Pro accounts is likely another cost-cutting move, coming after a recent change (reported by The Information) that made enterprise users pay per-million-token rates instead of having rate limits that, according to researchers, were often worth much more than the subscription cost.
No horizon
Qualifier: Anthropic 'appears to have' removed access
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Users were, instead of paying on a per-million-token basis, allowed to use their subscription to access Claude Code, but will likely now have to pay for API access.”
Our reading: Pro users who used Claude Code through their subscription will likely now have to pay for API access to use it.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The party appears to be ending for subsidized AI products, with Microsoft’s upcoming move following Anthropic’s (per The Information) recent changes shifting enterprise users to token-based billing as a means of reducing its costs.”
Our reading: The era of subsidized AI products appears to be ending, with Microsoft's upcoming move to token-based billing following Anthropic's recent changes, reported by The Information, that shift Anthropic's enterprise users to token-based billing to reduce its costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: appears to be ending
Source: Exclusive: Microsoft To Shift GitHub Copilot Users To Token-Based Billing, Tighten Rate Limits
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The move towards Opus 4.7 will likely see GitHub Copilot Pro+ users reach their usage limits faster.”
Our reading: The switch to Claude Opus 4.7 will likely make GitHub Copilot Pro+ users hit their usage limits faster.
No horizon
Qualifier: Microsoft transitions Pro+ to Opus 4.7
Source: Exclusive: Microsoft To Shift GitHub Copilot Users To Token-Based Billing, Tighten Rate Limits
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Mr. Amodei should immediately cease any and all discussions of AI potentially or otherwise eliminating 50% of white collar jobs, as Mr. Altman should cease predicting when Superintelligence might arrive, as Mr. Amodei should actively reject and denounce any suggestions of AI “creating a white collar bloodbath.””
Our reading: Amodei should stop discussing AI eliminating 50% of white-collar jobs and Altman should stop predicting superintelligence timelines.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Stop talking about AGI. Start talking about this like regular old software, because that’s all that ChatGPT is.”
Our reading: AI executives should stop talking about AGI and describe ChatGPT as the regular software it is.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I just think that they would be used dramatically less if there weren’t an industrial-scale publicity campaign run through the media and the majority of corporate America both incentivizing and forcing them to do so.”
Our reading: Developer use of LLMs would be dramatically lower without the media publicity campaign and corporate pressure.
No horizon
Qualifier: absent media and corporate pressure
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In fact, the ethical thing to do would’ve been to charge for and restrict the services in line with their actual costs so that users could have reliable and consistent access to the services in question.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI should have priced and restricted services in line with actual costs.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Right now, I’d guess that OpenAI has access to around 2GW of capacity (as of the end of 2025), and Anthropic around 1GW based on discussions with sources.”
Our reading: The author guesses OpenAI had about 2GW of capacity at end of 2025 and Anthropic about 1GW.
No horizon
Qualifier: author's guess based on sources
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“LLMs are excellent digital busyboxes for those who want to come up with a way to work differently rather than actually doing work.”
Our reading: LLMs are excellent digital busyboxes for people who want to come up with a way to work differently rather than actually doing work.
No horizon
Scope: for those who want to come up with a way to work differently rather than actually doing work
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I imagine that at some point enterprise customers will be able to pay for an even higher priority tier, and that Anthropic’s “Teams” subscription (which allows you to use the same subsidized subscriptions as everyone else) will be killed off, forcing anyone in an organization paying for Claude Code (and eventually Codex) via the API, as has already happened for Anthropic’s enterprise users.”
Our reading: The author imagines that at some point enterprise customers will be able to pay for an even higher priority tier, and that Anthropic's Teams subscription will be killed off, forcing organizations paying for Claude Code (and eventually Codex) onto the API, as already happened for Anthropic's enterprise users.
No horizon
Qualifier: I imagine
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Anyone you read talking about how LLMs “allowed them to look through a massive dataset” is likely using Python.”
Our reading: People who credit LLMs with letting them analyze massive datasets are likely really using Python.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“They should have to show you how much work it took to prepare the system, and why it’s superior to just doing it themselves.”
Our reading: People claiming others are being left behind by AI should have to show the setup effort required and why AI beats doing it themselves.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In any case, no previous real or imagined tech revolution has ever inspired such eager defensiveness, tribalism or outright aggression toward dissenters, nor such ridiculous attempts to obfuscate the truth about a product outside of cryptocurrency, an industry with obvious corruption and financial incentives.”
Our reading: Apart from crypto, no previous tech revolution inspired such defensiveness, tribalism and obfuscation as AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: except cryptocurrency
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“These are acts of violence that could have been stopped had ChatGPT and similar applications not been anthropomorphized by design, and trained to be “friendly.””
Our reading: The acts of violence by people twisted by LLMs into taking their own and others' lives could have been stopped had ChatGPT and similar applications not been anthropomorphized by design and trained to be 'friendly'.
No horizon
Qualifier: had ChatGPT and similar applications not been anthropomorphized by design and trained to be 'friendly'
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Both Altman and Amodei engage in the language of AI doomerism as a means of generating attention, revenue and investment capital, actively selling their software and future investment potential based on their ownership of a technology that they say (disingenuously) is potentially going to take everybody’s jobs.”
Our reading: Altman and Amodei both use the language of AI doomerism to generate attention, revenue and investment capital, selling their software and future investment potential on a technology they disingenuously say may take everybody's jobs.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“They do not think, they do not have knowledge, they are conjuring up their own training data (or reflecting post-training instructions from those developing them or documents instructing them to act a certain way), and any time you try and make them do something more-complicated, they begin to fall apart, and/or become exponentially more-expensive.”
Our reading: LLMs do not think or have knowledge, and they fall apart or become exponentially more expensive on more complicated tasks.
No horizon
Qualifier: on more complicated tasks
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Both he and Mr. Amodei need to immediately stop overstating the capabilities of Large Language Models.”
Our reading: Altman and Amodei must immediately stop overstating LLM capabilities.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website