Claims that can’t be checked, page 8 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 8 of 37: claims 701 to 800 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It may very well be booking this up-front.”
Our reading: Anthropic may be booking discounted prepaid Claude credits as revenue up front.
No horizon
Qualifier: discounted Claude extra credits
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The great Trump AI repositioning that I forecast may have begun!”
Our reading: Trump's forecast repositioning away from pro-AI-industry policy may have begun by May 2026.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“And if the backlash has enough force behind it, Trump may move further away from last year’s anti-regulatory policies.”
Our reading: If public backlash against AI is strong enough, Trump may move further away from his 2025 anti-regulatory AI policies.
No horizon
Only if: if the backlash has enough force behind it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Every time I think about the numbers and lack of RoI for most pilot studies and the reliability problems I think so.”
Our reading: Marcus thinks the multitrillion-dollar investment in AI could turn out to be another epic, arrogance-fueled mistake like the Vietnam war.
No horizon
Qualifier: 'I think so' in answer to a 'could' question
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“As I argued at the end of Taming Silicon Valley, which I hope you will read or reread now that is so directly relevant, if the people unite, we might actually be able to get AI to a better place.”
Our reading: If the public unites, it might be possible to steer AI to a better place.
No horizon
Only if: if the people unite
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Nobody wants this, nobody wanted it since the beginning, it was forced upon everyone, and to pretend otherwise is laughable and offensive.”
Our reading: There is no genuine demand for generative AI; it was forced on everyone.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Executives have, across the board, given their engineers free reign to burn as many tokens as they’d like, and while I severely doubt that Anthropic actually hit $50 billion in annualized revenue outside of not-quite-fraudulent non-GAAP measurements, I believe its revenue growth has come from an artificial boost from a tech industry searching for a reason to pay somebody money.”
Our reading: Executives across the board have given engineers free rein to burn tokens, Zitron severely doubts Anthropic actually hit $50 billion in annualized revenue outside of not-quite-fraudulent non-GAAP measurements, and he believes its revenue growth has come from an artificial boost from a tech industry searching for a reason to pay somebody money.
No horizon
Scope: outside of not-quite-fraudulent non-GAAP measurements
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“One important detail to keep in mind here is that as of a month or two ago, Anthropic moved all enterprise customers to token-based-billing, which will begin, I believe, a true stress-test of the true “value” of AI as costs skyrocket.”
Our reading: Zitron believes Anthropic's move of all enterprise customers to token-based billing will begin a true stress-test of AI's value as costs skyrocket.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Unless, of course, you can’t actually measure how many tokens a particular task can take with much accuracy, in which case every single AI token budget is bullshit.”
Our reading: If you can't measure with much accuracy how many tokens a particular task takes, then every AI token budget is bullshit.
No horizon
Only if: if you can't measure how many tokens a task takes with much accuracy
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“If we assume that Microsoft’s other AI services grew 10% quarter-over-quarter, I estimate that Microsoft likely made around $17.9 billion in AI revenue in FY2025, or a little under a fifth of its capex.”
Our reading: Assuming Microsoft's other AI services grew 10% quarter-over-quarter, Zitron estimates Microsoft likely made around $17.9 billion in AI revenue in FY2025, a little under a fifth of its capex.
No horizon
Qualifier: assuming Microsoft's other AI services grew 10% quarter-over-quarter
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Anthropic has done a great deal of work to obfuscate how much it actually makes or spends, but I think it’s likely it burns even more than OpenAI, given the fact that it’s had to raise $75 billion in the last 6 months”
Our reading: Anthropic obfuscates its finances and likely burns even more money than OpenAI.
No horizon
Qualifier: inferred from $75B raised in 6 months
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Because even if Anthropic were making $100 billion in annual revenue, it would probably be losing $300 billion or more to get there.”
Our reading: If Anthropic reached $100B annual revenue it would probably be losing $300B or more to get there.
No horizon
Only if: if Anthropic reached $100B annual revenue
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Generative AI was purpose-built to grift an economy run by executives and managers who don’t actually do any work.”
Our reading: Generative AI was built to grift executives and managers who don't do real work.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“If the margins were good, they’d be sharing the margins. If the revenues were good, they’d be sharing the revenues (and no, run rates aren’t revenues).”
Our reading: Hyperscalers' failure to disclose AI margins and revenues indicates they are not good.
No horizon
Qualifier: inferred from non-disclosure
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“We should make everybody who obsessed over theoretical ideas about what AI can or will do ashamed for their intellectual deceit or constant ignorance.”
Our reading: AI boosters who obsessed over theoretical AI capabilities should be shamed for their deceit or ignorance.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“I think the answer is simple: their CFOs know that doing so would reveal their actual margins, which are hot dogshit with sprinkles on top.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks Anthropic's and OpenAI's CFOs know that going public would reveal their actual margins, which he calls extremely bad, and that this is why neither appears to be seriously considering an IPO.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“While I’m not accusing Anthropic of anything untoward, massive, multi-million dollar contracts that involve individuals burning thousands or tens of thousands of dollars’ worth of tokens with no service level agreement, transparency or true granularity into the burn is a perfect setup for a company — not saying it’s Anthropic! — to do something dastardly with those numbers.”
Our reading: Multi-million-dollar token contracts with no service level agreement, transparency or true granularity into usage are a perfect setup for a company to do something dastardly with the numbers, though Zitron explicitly says he is not accusing Anthropic.
No horizon
Scope: no service level agreement, transparency or true granularity
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“(Oracle is trying to compete and may die as a result)”
Our reading: Oracle may die as a result of trying to compete as an AI cloud provider.
No horizon
Qualifier: as a result of trying to compete in AI cloud
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Organizations aren’t burning millions or hundreds of millions of dollars a year on AI because it’s good, they’re doing it because they are run by people who do not know what the fuck they’re doing.”
Our reading: Organizations spend heavily on AI because of incompetent leadership, not because AI is good.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“This might be because Anthropic obfuscates the data that might tell customers the real costs.”
Our reading: Executives pushing AI use without knowing what it costs might be because Anthropic obfuscates the data that might tell customers the real costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: might be because
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“And it all comes back to a very simple point: AI is too expensive.”
Our reading: AI is too expensive.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Sidenote: I have absolutely no idea what Meta does, and my chaos bet is that it starts renting out its compute to Anthropic or OpenAI when things get rough.”
Our reading: As a speculative bet, Meta may start renting its compute to Anthropic or OpenAI when things get rough.
No horizon
Only if: when things get rough
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Numerous reports about how Anthropic will turn “cash flow positive” in either 2027 or 2028 are fantastical, illogical, entirely driven by ridiculous projections, and should never have been reported as anything other than an attempt by companies to mislead their investors.”
Our reading: Numerous reports that Anthropic will turn cash-flow positive in 2027 or 2028 are fantastical, illogical and driven entirely by ridiculous projections, and should never have been reported as anything other than an attempt by companies to mislead their investors.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The fact it had to raise $30 billion in February, $15 billion in April, and now $30 billion more in May all while allegedly pulling in more than $3 billion a month in revenue suggests that its COGS are fucking horrendous, and its growth is coming at a terrible financial cost.”
Our reading: Anthropic's raising $30 billion in February, $15 billion in April and $30 billion in May while allegedly bringing in more than $3 billion a month suggests its COGS are horrendous and its growth is coming at a terrible financial cost.
No horizon
Qualifier: allegedly
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I also cannot find an economic scenario where this pays itself off.”
Our reading: Zitron says he cannot find an economic scenario in which hyperscalers' AI capex pays itself off.
No horizon
Qualifier: I cannot find
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Before AI, this wasn’t as much of a problem, in the sense that inefficiencies and wasted hours weren’t directly connected to a chatbot that is specifically designed to burn money.”
Our reading: AI chatbots are designed to burn money, tying workplace inefficiency directly to a growing cost.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“To be very clear about what I mean, I think there is currently an AI token binge across both Anthropic and OpenAI.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks there is currently an AI token binge across both Anthropic and OpenAI.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Anthropic is a company purpose-built to con people into giving it by money by making people feel smart.”
Our reading: Anthropic is a company purpose-built to con people into giving it money by making them feel smart.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Too Expensive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“More technical; also excellent: why we so badly need neurosymbolic AI and world models, and why software verification is more important than ever in the LLM era.”
Our reading: The AI field badly needs neurosymbolic AI and world models.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“More technical; also excellent: why we so badly need neurosymbolic AI and world models, and why software verification is more important than ever in the LLM era.”
Our reading: In the LLM era, software verification is more important than ever.
No horizon
Qualifier: in the LLM era
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“That’s not good for anyone, businesses or consumers.”
Our reading: The situation of many US AI bills without anything that feels like a coherent AI policy is not good for anyone, businesses or consumers.
No horizon
Scope: anyone, businesses or consumers
Source: US AI policy is a clumsy mess. Here’s what to do about it.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Might sound nerdy, but the alternative, to which we are headed, is poorly considered chaos.”
Our reading: Without a coherent framework, US AI policy is headed toward poorly considered chaos.
No horizon
Qualifier: without a coherent framework for AI legislation
Source: US AI policy is a clumsy mess. Here’s what to do about it.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“In reality, data center companies actively deceive the media and customers about the actual status of projects, most likely because it’s really, really difficult to build a data center.”
Our reading: Data center companies actively deceive the media and customers about project status, most likely because data centers are very hard to build.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Something doesn’t line up, and it’s exactly the kind of misalignment that happens in a bubble — when infrastructural reality disconnects from the financials.”
Our reading: Something doesn't line up between AI infrastructure and the financials, and it is exactly the kind of misalignment that happens in a bubble, when infrastructural reality disconnects from the financials.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Nobody has built a 1GW data center, so I severely doubt Mr. Dogshit will be able to do anything other than create another scandal and lose a bunch of people’s money.”
Our reading: Kevin O'Leary's planned 9GW Utah data center will very likely not be built; it will more likely end in scandal and lost investor money.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“In other words, any time you hear about a “new data center project,” add a year or two to whatever projection they give. If it’s 2027, assume 2029, or that it never gets built.”
Our reading: Readers should add one to two years to any announced data center completion date, or assume the project will never be built.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Let’s go back to Anthropic mopping up Musk’s fallow data center capacity, which stinks of desperation for both companies.”
Our reading: Anthropic taking up Musk's fallow data center capacity stinks of desperation for both companies.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“These are intentionally attempts to obfuscate the actual progress of the data center buildout”
Our reading: Calling partly built data centers like Project Rainier and Stargate Abilene 'operational' is a deliberate attempt to hide how far the buildout has actually progressed.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Many took this to mean “Google is doubling its capacity every six months,” but I think it’s far more likely that Google is taking on capacity requests from Anthropic that are making said capacity demands necessary.”
Our reading: Google's stated need to double capacity every six months more likely reflects Anthropic's capacity requests than actual doubling of capacity.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Based on what I’ve found, I’d be surprised if more than 3GW of actual capacity was turned on in the last two years, which means that NVIDIA has sold anywhere from double to triple the amount of GPUs that the world can hold.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that more than 3GW of capacity was turned on worldwide in the past two years, which would mean NVIDIA sold two to three times as many GPUs as can be housed.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It feels like Jensen Huang might have run the largest preorder campaign of all time.”
Our reading: It feels like Jensen Huang might have run the largest preorder campaign of all time.
No horizon
Qualifier: it feels like
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If data centers are not getting built in anything approaching a reasonable timeline, that makes the future of these companies only as viable as the construction projects themselves.”
Our reading: If data centers are not built on a reasonable timeline, the futures of companies like NVIDIA's suppliers, AMD, Microsoft, Google, Oracle and Amazon are only as viable as those construction projects.
No horizon
Only if: if data centers are not built on a reasonable timeline
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“There’s supposedly incredible, unstoppable demand for AI compute, and Microsoft is apparently sitting on gigawatts’ worth, but somehow those gigawatts don’t seem to be translating into gigabillions, likely because they don’t fucking exist.”
Our reading: Microsoft's claimed gigawatts of new capacity are not producing matching revenue, most likely because that capacity does not exist.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“This is setting up a horrifying situation where Oracle desperately needs OpenAI to pay it for capacity that doesn’t exist, and if it ever gets built, it’s likely to be years after OpenAI has run out of money”
Our reading: If Oracle's capacity for OpenAI ever gets built, it will likely be years after OpenAI has run out of money.
No horizon
Only if: if it ever gets built
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I have serious doubts that Microsoft stood up a 350MW data center in less than a year, given everything else I’m about to explain.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that Microsoft built Fairwater Atlanta to 350MW of capacity in under a year.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Sidenote: This also really makes me doubt that Microsoft has been bringing a gigawatt of GPU capacity for two quarters straight.”
Our reading: Microsoft's depreciation figures make it doubtful that it added a gigawatt of GPU capacity in each of the last two quarters.
No horizon
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Actually, it’s probably important to state that I don’t think the majority of these projects are doing anything untoward I just don’t think any of them realized how difficult it is to build a data center, and unlike basically any other problem the tech industry has ever faced, simply throwing as much money as possible at it doesn’t really change the limits of physical construction.”
Our reading: Zitron does not think the majority of these data center projects are doing anything untoward; he thinks none of the builders realized how difficult it is to build a data center, and throwing as much money as possible at it does not really change the limits of physical construction.
No horizon
Qualifier: I don't think / I just don't think
Source: Where Are All The Data Centers?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Instead, its techniques likely work best with things like coding and math, where formal verification (good old symbolic AI for the win!) can straightforwardly apply.”
Our reading: Mythos's techniques likely work best with things like coding and math, where formal verification can straightforwardly apply.
No horizon
Scope: things like coding and math
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“(Incidentally, this is yet another vindication of neurosymbolic AI – not proof that LLMs themselves can be perpetually scaled. Nor a proof that another trillion dollars will indefinitely continue the trends shown in the graph.)”
Our reading: Recent progress vindicates neurosymbolic AI and does not prove LLMs can be perpetually scaled or that another trillion dollars will continue the trend indefinitely.
No horizon
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In short, there is no need (yet?) to panic.”
Our reading: In short, there is no need (yet?) to panic over the AI progress shown by the METR graph.
No horizon
Qualifier: (yet?) — tentative, questioning time qualifier
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And most importantly, solving (some aspects of) software design is not open-ended intelligence. AI is definitely getting better at some things, but there is no reason to think that it is close to fully general yet.”
Our reading: AI is improving at some things but there is no reason to think it is close to fully general intelligence; software design progress is not open-ended intelligence.
No horizon
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“To anticipate that Anthropic will have $2T revenue in 2030 is a perfect example of what I have often called the trillion pound baby fallacy”
Our reading: Anticipating that Anthropic will have $2T revenue in 2030 is a perfect example of the trillion pound baby fallacy.
No horizon
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“As noted in my newsletter, a lot of the advance in recent months is likely from the incorporation of symbolic tools (like code interpreters, verification, and harnesses) rather than from model scaling per se.”
Our reading: Much of the recent-months AI advance is likely due to symbolic tools like code interpreters, verification and harnesses rather than model scaling itself.
No horizon
Qualifier: recent months
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“More broadly, the key problem with GenAI has been reliability; a graph that demands only 50% success does not address reliable performance. At all.”
Our reading: Reliability has been the key problem with GenAI, and the METR graph at 50% success does not address reliable performance at all.
No horizon
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“For exactly that reason, Wildeford’s concern about Mythos “breaking the graph” is a red herring.”
Our reading: Wildeford's concern that Mythos has 'broken' the METR time-horizon graph is a red herring, because the graph only measures 50% success.
No horizon
Qualifier: because the graph measures only 50% success
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Claude Code is a real advance; Mythos probably builds on some of what is learned there.”
Our reading: Claude Code is a real advance, and Mythos probably builds on some of what was learned from it.
No horizon
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“some types of challanges (e.g., reasoning accurately with respect to world models, reducing hallucinations etc) may simply not be amenable to current approaches”
Our reading: AI progress may hit limits from resource constraints, benchmark-focused tooling, formal verification limits in less formal problems, and challenges like world-model reasoning and hallucinations not amenable to current approaches.
No horizon
Source: Misplaced panic over AI progress
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
““they hadn’t figured out how OpenAI would pay for it” may turn out to be the epitaph for an entire era.”
Our reading: The line "they hadn't figured out how OpenAI would pay for it" may turn out to be the epitaph for an entire era.
No horizon
Qualifier: may turn out to be
Source: Breaking news: “they hadn’t figured out how OpenAI would pay for it”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“In reality, they’re the paypigs for Anthropic and OpenAI, providing more than 70% of their compute as a means of artificially inflating their AI revenues, knowing that analysts and the media will nod and smile without a single thought.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Amazon and Google are paypigs for Anthropic and OpenAI, providing more than 70% of their compute as a means of artificially inflating their AI revenues, knowing analysts and the media will not question it.
No horizon
Qualifier: 'their compute' is ambiguous between the labs' and the hyperscalers' compute
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“At some point these fucknuts are going to be forced to reckon with what they’re doing.”
Our reading: At some point the hyperscalers are going to be forced to reckon with what they are doing.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“If this breaks OpenAI I’ll be very surprised, but if it does it would be extremely fitting that Elon would accidentally destroy the AI industry, like Mr. Bean sitting on a button that launches a nuke.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI breaks OpenAI.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Only Microsoft was smart enough to realize the problem, which is why it allowed Oracle to take over the majority of OpenAI’s future capacity (which may kill Oracle, by the way!), but both Google and Amazon keep feeding Anthropic money so that Anthropic can feed it right back to them.”
Our reading: Taking over the majority of OpenAI's future capacity may kill Oracle.
No horizon
Qualifier: Oracle taking over majority of OpenAI's future capacity
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Google has intentionally bucketed AI-related revenue into Google Cloud so that finance and tech journalists will claim that AI is what’s driving this growth despite there being no proof that that’s the case.”
Our reading: Google intentionally lumps AI revenue into Google Cloud so journalists credit AI for growth without proof.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Google, Microsoft and Amazon’s AI Revenues Are Almost Entirely Based on Circular Financing Relationships That Should Be Illegal”
Our reading: Google, Microsoft and Amazon's AI revenues rest almost entirely on circular financing relationships, which should be illegal.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“It’s a mess, and a mistake, and eventually one of them is going to grow tired of it.”
Our reading: The arrangement is a mess and a mistake, and eventually one of the hyperscalers is going to grow tired of it.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“One of the reasons that Google might not want to break out its AI revenues is that they’re — much like Amazon — heavily-inflated by Anthropic’s compute spend.”
Our reading: Google may not break out AI revenue because it is heavily inflated by Anthropic's compute spend.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I truly think that it’s going to be like this if not crazier until one day when the music suddenly stops. Somebody is going to blink.”
Our reading: The AI frenzy will continue or intensify until it suddenly stops when someone blinks.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“The only reason Google, Amazon and Microsoft are being tolerated at their current excess is because their non-AI segments continue to grow through endless price-increases and enshittification, and its external business units — by which I mean OpenAI and Anthropic — are yet to die.”
Our reading: The only reason Google, Amazon and Microsoft are tolerated at their current excess is that their non-AI segments keep growing through endless price increases and enshittification, and OpenAI and Anthropic have yet to die.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“These companies are deliberately refusing to share their AI revenues: and it’s time for the tech and business media to begin asking them why!”
Our reading: The media should ask big tech why they deliberately refuse to share AI revenues.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Remember: Microsoft and Amazon are intentionally obfuscating their AI revenues by using “annualized” — a term they refuse to define that usually refers to a monthly figure times 12 — to define something in statements related to quarterly revenue.”
Our reading: Microsoft and Amazon intentionally obfuscate AI revenue by reporting undefined annualized figures.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This isn’t real demand!”
Our reading: Anthropic's circular TPU arrangement with Google does not represent real demand.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Meta, on the other hand, has little real AI story, and can’t even seem to get its metrics straight on what AI is doing for the company”
Our reading: Meta has little real AI story and can't even seem to get its metrics straight on what AI is doing for the company.
No horizon
Qualifier: can't even seem to
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“This is an ugly, wasteful, distressed company that has no idea what to do anymore, run by a mad king who literally cannot be fired”
Our reading: Meta is a wasteful, distressed company with no idea what to do.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“This is effectively killing the product as they know it, and invalidates every single story about its revenue growth ever written.”
Our reading: Microsoft shifting GitHub Copilot to token-based billing is effectively killing the product as they know it and invalidates every story about its revenue growth ever written.
No horizon
Qualifier: shift to token-based billing
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“These relationships are utterly poisonous, and an intentional attempt to deceive investors and the general public.”
Our reading: The circular hyperscaler-AI lab relationships are an intentional attempt to deceive investors and the public.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“These periods match up exactly to Anthropic’s big jumps in revenue from Q2 2025 (around $3 billion ARR) to Q3 2025 (around $7 billion ARR) to Q4 2025 (around $9 billion ARR) to Q1 2026 (around $19 billion ARR), which suggests that Anthropic’s growth is what’s actually boosting Google Cloud.”
Our reading: Google Cloud's growth periods match Anthropic's big revenue jumps from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026, which suggests Anthropic's growth is what is actually boosting Google Cloud.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests, based on matching timing
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“The story of massive AI demand is a lie — a trillion dollars annihilated to create the largest circle jerk of all time.”
Our reading: The story of massive AI demand is a lie built on circular spending.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“If it were an ethical business, it would simply stop taking on new clients, much like GitHub Copilot did as it transitions to token-based billing.”
Our reading: Anthropic should stop taking on new clients while capacity-constrained.
No horizon
Qualifier: given capacity crunch
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Google and Amazon realize their AI revenues are contingent on the continued survival of Anthropic, and Amazon and Microsoft’s revenues are contingent on OpenAI AND Anthropic.”
Our reading: Google and Amazon realize their AI revenues are contingent on Anthropic's continued survival, and Amazon and Microsoft's revenues are contingent on both OpenAI and Anthropic.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It’s the largest bubble in history, and has reached such an intellectual and financial scale that many have taken sides on it in a way that will be completely impossible to walk back if they’re wrong.”
Our reading: AI is the largest bubble in history and has reached such a scale that many have taken sides in a way that will be impossible to walk back if they are wrong.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Otherwise, Microsoft’s 20 million Copilot 365 subscribers likely pay no more than $7 billion a year.”
Our reading: Microsoft's 20 million Copilot 365 subscribers likely pay no more than $7 billion a year.
No horizon
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“As things deteriorate, expect them to cling to their mythologies tighter and become more agitated.”
Our reading: As the AI situation deteriorates, boosters will cling more tightly to their narratives and grow more agitated.
No horizon
Only if: as things deteriorate
Source: Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“We were not wrong.”
Our reading: Marcus and Hamiel's earlier warning that LLM coding agents are a security nightmare has been borne out.
No horizon
Qualifier: refers to August essay 'LLM + Coding Agents = Security Nightmare'
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Greed, overhype, and recklessness have screwed it up.”
Our reading: AI could have been great but greed, overhype, and recklessness have ruined it.
No horizon
Source: The growing AI backlash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“over-leveraged environment-damaging data centers that risk causing a recession”
Our reading: Over-leveraged AI data centers risk causing a recession.
No horizon
Source: The growing AI backlash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But Generative AI has hurt more than it has helped, and been managed irresponsibly.”
Our reading: Generative AI has hurt more than it has helped, and it has been managed irresponsibly.
No horizon
Source: The growing AI backlash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Public backlash against AI will so be strong by 2028 that anti-AI sentiment will probably be a major factor in the 2028 US Presidential election.”
Our reading: Anti-AI public backlash will probably be strong enough by 2028 to be a major factor in the 2028 US Presidential election.
No horizon
Source: The growing AI backlash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Outside of coding (where there is clear value), and a handful of other domains (e.g. brainstorming), Generative AI has been a net negative for society.”
Our reading: Outside of coding, where there is clear value, and a handful of other domains such as brainstorming, generative AI has been a net negative for society.
No horizon
Scope: outside of coding and a handful of other domains such as brainstorming
Source: The growing AI backlash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Frustration with AI may even factor into the midterms.”
Our reading: Frustration with AI may be a factor in the 2026 US midterm elections.
No horizon
Source: The growing AI backlash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“That prediction very seems to be on track.”
Our reading: His earlier prediction, that anti-AI sentiment will probably be a major factor in the 2028 US Presidential election, seems to be on track.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems to be
Source: The growing AI backlash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“All that said, I honestly believe some future form of AI might be great.”
Our reading: Some future form of AI, unlike current generative AI, might be great.
No horizon
Source: The growing AI backlash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I don’t think we are better off than we were four years ago.”
Our reading: He does not think we are better off than we were four years ago.
No horizon
Qualifier: I don't think
Source: The growing AI backlash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“AI will surely someday be a major boon for medicine, but current tools such as domain-general chatbots may not be up to the job.”
Our reading: Current AI tools such as domain-general chatbots may not be adequate for the job of improving medicine.
No horizon
Qualifier: current tools
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Inferring sentience directly from outputs is naive.”
Our reading: Inferring sentience in AI systems directly from their outputs is naive.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Dawkins should never have glorified such a thing.”
Our reading: Dawkins should never have glorified Claude, which Marcus describes as akin to a counterfeit person.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Claude’s outputs are the product of a form of mimicry, rather than as a report of genuine internal states.”
Our reading: Claude's outputs come from a form of mimicry and are not reports of genuine internal states.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Consciousness is about internal states; the mimicry, no matter how rich, proves very little.”
Our reading: LLM mimicry of human speech, however rich, proves very little about consciousness.
No horizon
Qualifier: no matter how rich the mimicry
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Dawkins seems to imagine that since LLMs say things people do, they must be like people, and that simply does not follow.”
Our reading: It does not follow from LLMs saying things people say that LLMs are like people.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And there is no reason to think that Claude feels anything at all.”
Our reading: There is no reason to think Claude feels anything at all.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“A chess computer is by some definitions intelligent, but that doesn’t make it conscious.”
Our reading: Machine intelligence, as in a chess computer, does not entail consciousness.
No horizon