Claims that can’t be checked, page 10 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 10 of 37: claims 901 to 1000 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Yet the “early days” argument is inherently deceptive.”
Our reading: The argument that AI is in 'the early days' is inherently deceptive.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“At the end of this era, I think we’re all going to have to have a conversation about the innate credulity of the business and tech media, and how often that was co-opted to help the rich get richer.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks that at the end of this era everyone will have to have a conversation about the innate credulity of the business and tech media and how often it was co-opted to help the rich get richer.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“There’s also one other option: that Silicon Valley is effectively subsidizing Anthropic through an industry-wide token-burning psychosis. And based on some recent news, there’s a chance that’s the case.”
Our reading: There is a chance Anthropic's revenue is being propped up by industry-wide wasteful token burning.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Probably the weirdest thing about this entire era is how nobody wants to talk about the fact that AI isn’t actually doing very much, and that AI agents are just chatbots plugged into an API.”
Our reading: AI isn't actually doing very much, and AI agents are just chatbots plugged into an API.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“If everybody was forced to pay their actual costs for LLM coding, I do not believe for a second that we’d have anywhere near the amount of mewling, submissive and desperate press around these models.”
Our reading: Zitron firmly believes that if everybody had to pay the actual costs of LLM coding, there would be nowhere near as much mewling, submissive and desperate press about these models.
No horizon
Qualifier: if everybody was forced to pay their actual costs for LLM coding (counterfactual)
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Nevertheless, something is up with Anthropic’s revenue story.”
Our reading: Something is off with Anthropic's revenue story.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Worse still, hyperscalers like Meta and Amazon are allowing non-technical people to ship code themselves, which is creating a crisis throughout the tech industry.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers letting non-technical people ship LLM code is creating a crisis in the tech industry.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“In any case, anytime that somebody tells you that we’re in “the early days of AI” has either been conned or is in the process of conning you, as they’re using it to deflect from issues of efficacy or underlying economic weakness.”
Our reading: People claiming it is the early days of AI are conned or conning, deflecting from efficacy and economic weakness.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Saying it’s “the early days” also doesn’t really make sense when faced with the rotten and incredibly unprofitable economics of AI.”
Our reading: Saying AI is in 'the early days' doesn't really make sense given the rotten and incredibly unprofitable economics of AI.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“They do not have ideas, nor do they create unique concepts — everything they create is based on training data fed to it that was first scraped from Stack Overflow, Github and whatever code repositories Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have been able to get their hands on.”
Our reading: Coding LLMs have no ideas or unique concepts; all output derives from scraped training data.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I was not reached out to by or otherwise acknowledged by any other outlets, and every outlet has continued to repeat that OpenAI “made $13 billion in 2025,” despite that being very unlikely given that it would have required it to have made $8 billion in a single quarter.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely OpenAI made $13 billion in revenue in 2025, as that would require $8 billion in one quarter.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“if Anthropic actually made $2.5 billion in a month — we’ll find out when it files its S-1! — it likely came not from genuine growth or a surge of adoption, but in its existing products suddenly costing a shit ton more because of how they’re engineered.”
Our reading: If Anthropic really made $2.5B in a month, it likely came from products costing more per use, not genuine growth or adoption.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Anthropic actually made $2.5 billion in a month
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Though I cannot say for certain, both of these situations suggest that Anthropic and OpenAI are misleading their investors, the media and the general public.”
Our reading: Revenue discrepancies suggest, though not certainly, that OpenAI and Anthropic are misleading investors, media, and the public.
No horizon
Qualifier: cannot say for certain
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Compliance reporting? Summarizing or pulling documents from places, much like any LLM can do, other than the fact that it’ll likely get shit wrong, which is bad for compliance.”
Our reading: Anthropic/Infosys AI agents for compliance reporting will likely produce errors.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Yes, I know it’s a “stylized fact” or whatever, but that’s what he said, and I think that their IPO might have a rude surprise in the form of a non-EBITDA margin calculation that makes even the most-ardent booster see red.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks Anthropic's IPO might bring a rude surprise in the form of a non-EBITDA margin calculation that makes even the most ardent booster see red.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“A central subtheme of this newletter, brought together in this 2024 Guardian article, has been that Sam Altman should not be trusted:”
Our reading: Sam Altman should not be trusted.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“As a postscript, another thing I have noted about Altman is that when he is in trouble, he often tries to change the narrative with hype,”
Our reading: When Sam Altman is in trouble, he often tries to change the narrative with hype.
No horizon
Qualifier: when he is in trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“the economics of his company make no sense.”
Our reading: OpenAI's economics make no sense.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Today’s new OpenAI report on Superintelligence (allegedly a New Deal for the AI era) isn’t about something real or imminent (as far as I can tell),”
Our reading: As far as Marcus can tell, OpenAI's April 2026 Superintelligence report is not about anything real or imminent.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This does not endorse OpenAI's expectations about superintelligence.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“instead I suspect that it’s just another Altmanian attempt to distract, in this case from the fact that the economics of his company make no sense.”
Our reading: Marcus suspects that OpenAI's new Superintelligence report is just another Altman attempt to distract, in this case from the fact that the economics of OpenAI make no sense.
No horizon
Qualifier: I suspect
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“An S-1 - one of the filings a company makes before going public - is an audited document, and I imagine the whimsical mathematics that OpenAI engages in - such as, per The Wall Street Journal, calculating profitability without training compute - might not match up with what actual financiers crave.”
Our reading: He imagines that OpenAI's whimsical mathematics, such as calculating profitability without training compute (per The Wall Street Journal), might not match up with what actual financiers crave, given that an S-1 is an audited document.
No horizon
Qualifier: given that an S-1 is an audited document
Source: News: OpenAI CFO Doesn't Believe Company Ready For IPO, Unsure Revenue Will Support Commitments
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Though I am entirely guessing here, I imagine Friar sees something within OpenAi's finances that give her pause.”
Our reading: He guesses that OpenAI's CFO sees something in OpenAI's finances that worries her.
No horizon
Qualifier: self-described guess
Source: News: OpenAI CFO Doesn't Believe Company Ready For IPO, Unsure Revenue Will Support Commitments
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“It's clear that both OpenAI and Anthropic are rushing toward a public offering so that their CEOs can cash out”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic are rushing toward IPOs so that their CEOs can cash out.
No horizon
Source: News: OpenAI CFO Doesn't Believe Company Ready For IPO, Unsure Revenue Will Support Commitments
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“It is extremely strange that the CFO of a company doesn't report to the CEO of a company, and even more strange that the CFO is directly saying "we are not ready for IPO" as its CEO jams his foot on the accelerator.”
Our reading: It is extremely strange that OpenAI's CFO doesn't report to its CEO, and even more strange that the CFO is directly saying the company is not ready for an IPO while the CEO pushes hard toward one.
No horizon
Qualifier: CFO's view as reported by The Information via a person who spoke to her
Source: News: OpenAI CFO Doesn't Believe Company Ready For IPO, Unsure Revenue Will Support Commitments
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“All in all, glorifying Medvi was not The New York Times’ finest hour.”
Our reading: Glorifying Medvi was not The New York Times' finest hour.
No horizon
Qualifier: all in all
Source: The back story behind the first “$1.8 Billion” dollar “AI Company”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“which it itself built on and extending an earlier (May 2025) dissection from Futurism that The New York Times should have read and addressed in far more detail:”
Our reading: The New York Times should have read and addressed in far more detail Futurism's May 2025 critical dissection of Medvi before praising it.
No horizon
Source: The back story behind the first “$1.8 Billion” dollar “AI Company”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“With actual AGI nowhere in sight, redefinition and spin may be all that’s left.”
Our reading: Actual AGI is nowhere in sight as of April 2026.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“A quarter-billion dollar desperation move: an effort to control the narrative, to distract away from the billion or so dollars they are losing each month this year, and rumors that their stock is losing favor on the secondary market.”
Our reading: Marcus's only guess is that OpenAI's $250 million purchase of TBPN is a desperation move: an effort to control the narrative and to distract from the billion or so dollars it is losing each month this year and from rumors that its stock is losing favor on the secondary market.
No horizon
Qualifier: his only guess
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“If I am not mistaken, I guess makes cell phones and Microsoft Word … “superintelligent”.”
Our reading: Marcus suggests, tentatively ('if I am not mistaken, I guess'), that Suleyman's definition would make cell phones and Microsoft Word 'superintelligent'.
No horizon
Qualifier: if I am not mistaken
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I see at least three reasons off the top of my head, all of which should have been obvious before the bombs were dropped.”
Our reading: The reasons AI is poor at war strategy should have been obvious before the US-Iran war began.
No horizon
Qualifier: before the bombs were dropped
Source: In the Iran war, it looks like AI helped with operations, not strategy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“AI is fine for writing memos; nobody should rely on it to plan a war or to guess its likely outcomes.”
Our reading: Nobody should rely on AI to plan a war or to predict its likely outcomes.
No horizon
Source: In the Iran war, it looks like AI helped with operations, not strategy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In the meantime, the advice is simple: Don’t focus on replacing humans. Focus on how you can use AI to help the ones you’ve got.”
Our reading: For now, employers should not focus on replacing humans with AI and should instead use AI to help their existing workers.
No horizon
Qualifier: in the meantime
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“There is a parallel lesson for employees, of course. Don’t panic, at least not yet.”
Our reading: Employees should not panic yet about AI replacing their jobs.
No horizon
Qualifier: at least not yet
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“All this could change; probably someday it will—but most likely not until we see more radical advances in AI, which could be a decade or more away.”
Our reading: The so-far modest impact of AI on productivity and return on AI investment could change, and probably someday will, but most likely not until there are more radical advances in AI, which could be a decade or more away.
No horizon
Only if: not until more radical advances in AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Anthropic claimed that this was simply the expiration of holiday rate limits, but in reality, this is all part of Anthropic’s continual manipulation of rate limits to con customers into buying Claude subscriptions that decay in value.”
Our reading: Anthropic continually manipulates rate limits to lure customers into Claude subscriptions that lose value.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“The collapse of a data center already in construction, but before it’s finished.”
Our reading: The collapse of a data center under construction would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: an in-construction data center collapses
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“I think there’re a few ways this goes:”
Our reading: Anthropic's rate limit situation could play out in a few ways.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“While it’s really easy to make fun of people obsessed with LLMs, I want to be clear that Anthropic and OpenAI are inherently abusive companies that have built businesses on theft, deception and exploitation.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI are inherently abusive companies that have built their businesses on theft, deception and exploitation.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“The Further Collapse of Stargate Abilene: If anything happens to the construction of OpenAI’s flagship data center (being built by Oracle) in Abilene Texas, you know shit is getting bad.”
Our reading: Any problem with construction of OpenAI's Stargate Abilene data center would signal serious trouble for the AI bubble.
No horizon
Only if: problems with Abilene construction
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“To be clear, no AI company should have ever sold a monthly subscription, as there was never a point at which the economics made sense.”
Our reading: AI companies should never have sold monthly subscriptions because the economics never made sense.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“The collapse of a data center deal that has yet to commence construction.”
Our reading: The collapse of a data center deal before construction would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: a pre-construction data center deal collapses
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Anthropic will announce that it’s “fixed the bug” (IE: eased rate limits it intentionally set) and apologize to the community, prolonging the inevitable. Rate limits will continue to decay over time, just at a slower pace.”
Our reading: One possible outcome: Anthropic eases limits, calls it a bug fix, and apologizes, while limits keep decaying more slowly.
No horizon
Qualifier: one of several possible scenarios
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Anthropic keeps the limits where they are, and we hit a new normal that makes everybody really mad.”
Our reading: Another possible outcome: Anthropic keeps the current limits as a new normal that angers users.
No horizon
Qualifier: one of several possible scenarios
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Yet had these companies actually charged their real costs, nobody would have bothered with AI, because even with these highly-subsidized subscriptions, AI still hasn’t delivered meaningful productivity benefits”
Our reading: Had AI companies charged their real costs, nobody would have bothered with AI, because even with highly subsidised subscriptions AI still hasn't delivered meaningful productivity benefits.
No horizon
Qualifier: had these companies charged their real costs
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Any discussion of layoffs at AI companies.”
Our reading: Discussion of layoffs at AI companies would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: layoffs discussed at AI companies
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Any further price increases or service degradations from AI startups, such as Cursor, Perplexity, Harvey, Lovable or Replit.”
Our reading: Further price increases or service cuts at AI startups would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: further price increases or service degradations
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Price hikes and product changes are likely to accelerate in the next few months as things get desperate.”
Our reading: AI price hikes and product changes will likely accelerate over the next few months.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“The collapse of an already-constructed data center.”
Our reading: The collapse of a completed data center would be a warning sign of the AI bubble's collapse.
No horizon
Only if: a completed data center collapses
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I’d argue that annual subscriptions to these services amount to, if not fraud, a level of consumer deception that deserves legal action and regulatory involvement.”
Our reading: Annual AI subscriptions are consumer deception that deserves legal action and regulatory involvement.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Based on the reactions of their users, I don’t really see how the AI labs — or AI startups, for that matter — fix this problem.”
Our reading: Based on users' reactions, he doesn't really see how AI labs or AI startups can fix the problem of users who won't tolerate rate limits and price increases.
No horizon
Qualifier: based on the reactions of their users
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“I think everybody in the AI industry has deluded themselves into believing they have the mandate of Heaven.”
Our reading: He thinks everybody in the AI industry has deluded themselves into believing they have the mandate of Heaven.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Even if this week’s rate limits are an overcorrection, one has to imagine they resemble the future of Anthropic’s products, and are indicative of a larger pattern of decay in the value of its subscriptions.”
Our reading: Anthropic's current rate limits likely preview its future and reflect ongoing decay in subscription value.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if this week's limits are an overcorrection
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If your humanoid robot can’t understand the visual world, it’s just a demo, and not something you can trust.”
Our reading: A humanoid robot that can't understand the visual world is just a demo and not something you can trust.
No horizon
Scope: humanoid robots that can't understand the visual world
Source: The mirage of visual understanding in current frontier models
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Also, re the very active discussion on AI and jobs: although some white collar jobs (e.g., entry-level coder or market research assistant) may be in near-term jeopardy, many of those that require visual understanding (architect, cartographer, civil engineer, film editor, medical illustrator, urban planner, etc) probably aren’t vulnerable until entirely new techniques are developed.”
Our reading: Some white collar jobs, such as entry-level coder or market research assistant, may be in jeopardy from AI in the near term.
No horizon
Qualifier: e.g., entry-level coder or market research assistant
Source: The mirage of visual understanding in current frontier models
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“Also, re the very active discussion on AI and jobs: although some white collar jobs (e.g., entry-level coder or market research assistant) may be in near-term jeopardy, many of those that require visual understanding (architect, cartographer, civil engineer, film editor, medical illustrator, urban planner, etc) probably aren’t vulnerable until entirely new techniques are developed.”
Our reading: Many jobs requiring visual understanding (architect, cartographer, civil engineer, film editor, medical illustrator, urban planner) probably won't be vulnerable to AI until entirely new techniques are developed.
No horizon
Only if: until entirely new techniques are developed
Source: The mirage of visual understanding in current frontier models
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Every single person responsible must be held accountable, especially for the calamities to come as lazily-managed software companies see the consequences of building their software on sand.”
Our reading: Everyone responsible for pushing generative code must be held accountable for the calamities to come.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“The arrest of Liaw has, it seems, ruffled some feathers in Washington, and I would not be shocked to see Huang sat before a congressional inquiry at some point.”
Our reading: Jensen Huang may at some point be called before a congressional inquiry about GPU diversion to China.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I imagine Microsoft has successfully brought online about 235MW of power for Fairwater.”
Our reading: Microsoft has probably brought only about 235MW of power online for its Fairwater Wisconsin data center.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“But what I do know is that big tech is setting itself up for crisis after crisis, especially when Anthropic and OpenAI stop subsidizing their models to the tune of allowing people to spend $2500 or more on a $200-a-month subscription.”
Our reading: Big tech is setting itself up for crisis after crisis, especially when Anthropic and OpenAI stop subsidizing their models to the extent of letting people spend $2,500 or more on a $200-a-month subscription.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially when Anthropic and OpenAI stop subsidizing their models
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“In the end, everything about AI is built on lies.”
Our reading: Everything about AI is built on lies.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“While the indictment isn’t specific as to the breakdown, it confirms that some Blackwell GPUs made it to China, and I’d wager quite a few.”
Our reading: Likely quite a few NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs were smuggled to China.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“2025’s $178.5 billion in US-based data center deals doesn’t appear to be resulting in any immediate (or even future) benefit to anybody involved.”
Our reading: The $178.5 billion of US data center deals in 2025 does not appear to benefit anyone involved.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“The entire AI bubble is built on a vague sense of inevitability — that if everybody just believes hard enough that none of this can ever, ever go wrong that at some point all of the very obvious problems will just go away.”
Our reading: The AI bubble rests on a vague belief that it is inevitable and that its obvious problems will go away.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Furthermore, if the supply of AI compute is a bottleneck, this suggests that when (or if) that bottleneck is ever cleared, there will suddenly be a massive supply glut, lowering the overall value of the data centers in progress…”
Our reading: If AI compute supply is a bottleneck, this suggests that when (or if) the bottleneck is ever cleared there will suddenly be a massive supply glut that lowers the value of data centers in progress, which are all filled with Blackwell GPUs that will be two or three years old by the time those data centers are finally turned on.
No horizon
Only if: if the supply of AI compute is a bottleneck
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Generative code is a digital ecological disaster, one that will take years to repair thanks to company remits to write as much code as fast as possible.”
Our reading: The damage from generative code is a disaster that will take years to repair.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Assuming that Vera Rubin actually ships in 2026, it’s reasonable to believe that people will be installing these things well into 2028, if not further, and that’s assuming everything doesn’t collapse by then.”
Our reading: If Vera Rubin ships in 2026, it will probably still be getting installed well into 2028 or later, unless things collapse first.
No horizon
Only if: Vera Rubin ships in 2026
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The problem is that while LLMs can write “all” code, that doesn’t mean the code is good, or that somebody can read the code and understand its intention (as these models do not think), or that having a lot of code is a good thing both in the present and in the future of any company built using generative code.”
Our reading: LLM-written code is not necessarily good or understandable, and LLMs do not think.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“The entire AI bubble is a god damn mirage. Every single “multi-gigawatt” data center you hear about is a pipedream,”
Our reading: The AI bubble is a mirage and every announced multi-gigawatt data center is a pipedream funded by private credit.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Despite the furious (and exhausting) marketing campaign around “the power of AI code,” I believe that these events are just the beginning of the true consequences of AI coding tools: the slow destruction of the tech industry’s software stack.”
Our reading: The Meta and Amazon incidents are only the start of AI coding tools slowly destroying the tech industry's software stack.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The tech industry has taken advantage of an understandable lack of knowledge about construction or power timelines in the media to pump out endless stories about “data center capacity in progress” as a means of obfuscating an ever-growing scandal: that hundreds of billions of NVIDIA GPUs got sold to go in projects that may never be built.”
Our reading: Hundreds of billions of dollars of NVIDIA GPUs were sold for data center projects that may never be built, and the industry obscures this through media stories.
No horizon
Source: The AI Industry Is Lying To You
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s start with a simple one: AI boosters are no longer allowed to explain what’s good about AI using the future tense.”
Our reading: AI boosters should not justify AI by pointing to future capabilities, only present ones.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“OpenAI claims it made $13.1 billion in revenue in 2025 and “only” lost $8 billion — but those numbers seem unlikely considering my report from November of last year that had OpenAI at $4.3 billion in revenue on $8.67 billion of inference costs through September 2025, and this is accrual accounting, which means these are from the quarters in question.”
Our reading: OpenAI's claim of $13.1 billion in 2025 revenue and only an $8 billion loss is probably inaccurate, given $4.3 billion revenue against $8.67 billion inference costs through September 2025.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Nevertheless, AI has become one of the largest cons in history, bought and sold based on stuff it can’t do (but might do, one day, at a non-specific time), constantly ignoring the blatant swindles and acidic economics that are only made possible with regulators and the media and the markets piloted by people that don’t know or want to know what’s actually happening.”
Our reading: AI is one of history's largest cons, sold on things it cannot do.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Four fucking years of this and we’re still talking about this stuff in riddles, mostly because it’s a terrible business.”
Our reading: After four years, AI revenue at public software companies is still discussed in riddles, mostly because it's a terrible business.
No horizon
Qualifier: mostly
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“While I must be clear that Anthropic can limit Claude subscriptions, as can OpenAI limit ChatGPT, I doubt either can do so with precision.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI can limit subscription usage but probably cannot do so with precision.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“However you may feel about Amazon as a service, its engineers are likely indicative of corporate engineering on some level, which is making me wonder if we’re not going to have some real problems in software development in the next few years as a result.”
Our reading: AI-assisted coding may cause real problems across software development in the next few years.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“It’s a deeply cynical con. Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta are paying for these contracts because they don’t reflect as assets on the balance sheet, all while moving the risk onto the AI compute company — and if the AI company misses a deadline, the hyperscaler can walk away.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers sign neocloud compute contracts to keep the assets off their balance sheets and push the risk onto AI compute companies, keeping the right to walk away if deadlines slip.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“If you’re excited based on the potential, you’re not excited about technology, you’re excited about marketing.”
Our reading: Excitement about AI's potential rather than its current abilities is excitement about marketing, not technology.
No horizon
Qualifier: if based on potential
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“In both cases, Anthropic (and OpenAI, for that matter) is screwed.”
Our reading: Whether they subsidize subscribers on purpose or cannot control compute costs, Anthropic and OpenAI are in an untenable economic position on subscriptions.
No horizon
Qualifier: whether subsidizing intentionally or unable to limit compute
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I know, that doesn’t mean anything, and all Block is doing is AI-washing, which is when a company uses AI as a scapegoat to justify laying people off.”
Our reading: All Block is doing with its 4000 layoffs is AI-washing, meaning it is using AI as a scapegoat to justify laying people off.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Direct labor and parts are considered part of the calculation of gross margin, and spending on training — both the data and the process of training itself — are absolutely meaningful, and to leave them out is an act of deception.”
Our reading: AI labs' training costs belong in gross margin, and leaving them out (as Anthropic and OpenAI do) is deceptive.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“I think that these articles would’ve been much less positive if the reporters were even aware of the actual costs.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks the positive articles about Claude Code would have been much less positive if the reporters had even been aware of the actual costs.
No horizon
Only if: if the reporters were even aware of the actual costs
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Every time you report on these deals should include a timeline.”
Our reading: Every media report on a data center deal should include a realistic construction timeline.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“The problem is that the markets have AI psychosis, and thus believe anything to do with data centers is a natural winner.”
Our reading: Markets have 'AI psychosis' and therefore believe anything to do with data centers is a natural winner.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“This is a huge problem for both Anthropic and OpenAI, as their scurrilous growth-lust means that they’ve done everything they can to get customers used to paying a single monthly cost that directly obfuscates the cost of doing business.”
Our reading: In chasing growth, Anthropic and OpenAI got customers used to flat monthly prices that hide their real costs, which is a huge problem for both.
No horizon
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I also think that Anthropic and OpenAI have deliberately used their subscriptions as a means of conning the media into conceptualizing AI as far more affordable than it actually is.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks Anthropic and OpenAI have deliberately used their subscriptions to con the media into seeing AI as far more affordable than it actually is.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The bad bargain of AI data centers makes no sense.”
Our reading: The bad bargain of AI data centers makes no sense.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: Sam Altman concedes that we need major breakthroughs beyond mere scaling to get to AGI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“With the case for scaling as a road to AGI steadily crumbling, it is time to reconsider.”
Our reading: Because the case for scaling as a road to AGI is falling apart, the plans to spend heavily on data centers should be reconsidered.
No horizon
Qualifier: case for scaling as a road to AGI crumbling
Source: BREAKING: Sam Altman concedes that we need major breakthroughs beyond mere scaling to get to AGI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Taken together with Musk’s recent admission that xAI was “not built right” and Zuckerberg’s delay of Meta’s latest model, the shift from three prominent tech CEOs in a short period of time is a strong sign that insiders are losing faith in pure scaling.”
Our reading: The recent shifts by Altman, Musk and Zuckerberg strongly suggest that AI industry insiders are losing faith in pure scaling.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: Sam Altman concedes that we need major breakthroughs beyond mere scaling to get to AGI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“(Dario Amodei’s ridiculous claims about doubling life span in the next decade are deluded on this front.)”
Our reading: Dario Amodei's claims that AI will double human life span in the next decade are deluded technosolutionism.
No horizon
Qualifier: in the next decade
Source: F Cancer
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Of course AI can have a positive impact on medical research long before it reaches that level of sophistication, simply by streamlining everyday tasks, helping with subject recruitment and paperwork, and so on; such productivity gains seem plausible in the short-term, even if the more dramatic magic some people are hoping for doesn’t.”
Our reading: In the short term, AI will plausibly bring productivity gains to medical research through mundane tasks, even if more dramatic breakthroughs do not arrive.
No horizon
Qualifier: via streamlining everyday tasks, recruitment, paperwork
Source: F Cancer
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The one thing I think Javorsky gets somewhat wrong is that she downplays just how important getting the right algorithm is, and how far we are from that point.”
Our reading: Getting the right AI algorithm matters a great deal for beating disease, and current AI is far from that point.
No horizon
Source: F Cancer
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“In the near-term, the greatest contributions from AI towards combating disease will probably come from enhancing humans with better tools rather than radical new scientific discovery.”
Our reading: In the near term, AI's biggest contributions to fighting disease will probably come from giving humans better tools, not from radical new scientific discoveries.
No horizon
Source: F Cancer
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“AI will also need to sweat the details a whole lot better.”
Our reading: Actually beating cancer will also require AI to sweat the details a whole lot better.
No horizon
Scope: for actually beating cancer
Source: F Cancer
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“So much for pure scaling”
Our reading: Marcus dismisses pure scaling in light of the Meta and xAI results ('so much for pure scaling').
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: Expensive new evidence that scaling is not all you need
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“That hypothesis continues to go badly, as expensive experiments from two of the world’s wealthiest men have just shown.”
Our reading: The hypothesis that spending more on compute and data is the road to AGI continues to go badly, as recent expensive experiments by two of the world's wealthiest men (at Meta and xAI) have just shown.
No horizon
Qualifier: as shown by recent expensive experiments at Meta and xAI
Source: BREAKING: Expensive new evidence that scaling is not all you need
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If you actually believed that Claude was sentient and that sentience was de facto a supply chain risk, you would have to think that essentially every LLM is a supply chain risk. In which case the right choice is to stop using LLMs altogether, not to selectively punish Anthropic.”
Our reading: Anyone who actually believed that Claude was sentient and that sentience was de facto a supply chain risk would have to think that essentially every LLM is a supply chain risk, in which case the right choice would be to stop using LLMs altogether rather than selectively punish Anthropic.
No horizon
Only if: if you actually believed Claude was sentient and that sentience was de facto a supply chain risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Claude is next-word predictor, not an authority on its own internal states. It’s silly to take its estimates seriously.”
Our reading: Claude is a next-word predictor and not an authority on its own internal states, so it is silly to take its estimates of its own consciousness seriously.
No horizon
Scope: its estimates of its own probability of being conscious
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If you think it is bad to use hallucinating LLMs to autonomously choose targets (I certainly do), you shoudn’t use any of them.”
Our reading: No hallucinating LLM should be used to choose military targets autonomously.
No horizon
Qualifier: for autonomously choosing targets
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Which is to say we shouldn’t be putting our probabilities before our definitions, or even putting specific probabilities on things we can’t define.”
Our reading: People should not put specific probabilities on AI model consciousness before defining what consciousness means.
No horizon