Claims that can’t be checked, page 11 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 11 of 37: claims 1001 to 1100 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If you are worried about systems having guardrails, you shouldn’t be using LLMs, because you certainly shouldn’t be using them without guardrails.”
Our reading: LLMs should never be used without guardrails, so anyone worried about guardrails should not use LLMs at all.
No horizon
Qualifier: if worried about systems having guardrails
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But there is no more reason to think that Claude is sentient than to think that Google’s now long-obsolete system LAMDA was.”
Our reading: There is no more reason to think Claude is sentient than to think Google's LaMDA was.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“They mimic things humans say, but we shouldn’t take them as veridical descriptions of anything happening on the inside.”
Our reading: LLMs mimic human speech, so their statements should not be treated as accurate descriptions of their internal states.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“We may well move to a regime in which AI writes most code — but for a long time to come we are going to need humans to fix the mess.”
Our reading: AI may well come to write most code.
No horizon
Source: “A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It appears one of the most prominent startups in the valley has misled everybody about how much it makes, or if it has not, that somebody else is perpetuating a misinformation campaign.”
Our reading: Anthropic appears to have misled everyone about its revenue, or someone else is spreading misinformation about it.
No horizon
Qualifier: or someone else is running a misinformation campaign
Source: The Beginning Of History
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“And even in the very, very unlikely event that things somehow quickly return to whatever level of “normal” you’d call the world before the conflict started, even brief shocks to the financial plumbing are enough to destabilize an already-fractured hype cycle.”
Our reading: Even a brief financial shock from the war is enough to destabilize the already-fractured AI hype cycle.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if things quickly return to normal
Source: The Beginning Of History
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“My sources in Abilene also tell me that the expansion fell apart due to Oracle’s dissatisfaction with the revenue it was making on buildings one and two, and that a bidding war was taking place between Meta and Google for the future capacity.”
Our reading: The Stargate Abilene expansion with OpenAI fell apart because Oracle was dissatisfied with revenue from buildings one and two.
No horizon
Qualifier: per his sources
Source: The Beginning Of History
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I am not stating that it is lying, but I do believe annualized revenue is a deliberate attempt to obfuscate things and give the vibe that the business is healthier than it is. I also do not think it’s likely that Anthropic made 23% of its lifetime revenue in the space of a month.”
Our reading: While not stating that Anthropic is lying, he believes annualized revenue is a deliberate attempt to obfuscate things and make the business seem healthier than it is, and he does not think it likely that Anthropic made 23% of its lifetime revenue in a single month.
No horizon
Qualifier: I am not stating that it is lying
Source: The Beginning Of History
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“As I wrote yesterday, Dario Amodei is no saint, but I fully support his company’s new lawsuit against the US government.”
Our reading: Gary Marcus fully supports Anthropic's new lawsuit against the US government, although he says Dario Amodei is no saint.
No horizon
Qualifier: Dario Amodei is no saint
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I stand with them. Everyone should.”
Our reading: Everyone should stand with Anthropic in its lawsuit against the US government.
No horizon
Qualifier: in its lawsuit against the US government
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Claude is (or at least was, and may again be) part of the war machine; even with humans putatively in the loop, it may have been responsible for many deaths.”
Our reading: Claude is, or at least was and may again be, part of the war machine, and even with humans putatively in the loop it may have been responsible for many deaths.
No horizon
Qualifier: even with humans putatively in the loop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Wright may well be right that Anthropic’s Claude selected the school; it would be hardly surprising if accidents like these happened.”
Our reading: Claude may well have selected the Iranian elementary school that was struck.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“The thing about including humans in the loop is that if the AI is selecting 80 targets an hour, as has been reported, the humans probably aren’t going to do a good job verifying those targets.”
Our reading: If the AI is selecting 80 targets an hour, as has been reported, the humans in the loop probably aren't going to do a good job verifying those targets.
No horizon
Only if: if the AI is selecting 80 targets an hour
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“In many other ways, Amodei pretty much follows Sam Altman’s playbook, of constant hype and overpromising, frequently moving deadlines back and rarely taking responsibility.”
Our reading: In many other ways, Amodei pretty much follows Altman's playbook of constant hype and overpromising, frequently moving deadlines back and rarely taking responsibility.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This does not endorse or reject Marcus's characterization.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“But aside from his courageous stand on mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, Dario is more like Sam than almost anyone I can think of.”
Our reading: Aside from his courageous stand on mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, Amodei is more like Altman than almost anyone Marcus can think of.
No horizon
Qualifier: aside from his courageous stand on mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“We have seen it before in law (hallucinated cases that wind up in submitted briefs), journalism, and so on. Now we are (likely) seeing it in war.”
Our reading: Overtrust in AI, already seen in law and journalism, is likely now being seen in war.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Amodei’s claims are ludicrous, at best. And plain dishonest, at worst.”
Our reading: Amodei's claims about AI are ludicrous at best and dishonest at worst.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“In Iran, I am going to suppose that humans were in the loop (about which I will say more in a moment) but even so the results probably already have been disastrous.”
Our reading: The results of AI-assisted targeting in Iran have probably already been disastrous, even supposing humans were in the loop.
No horizon
Qualifier: even with humans in the loop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“As bad as Sam Altman is, Dario Amodei isn’t all that different.”
Our reading: Dario Amodei is not all that different from Sam Altman.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“In many ways, Amodei and Anthropic are simply speedrunning Altman’s fall from grace.”
Our reading: Amodei and Anthropic are rapidly following Altman's fall from grace.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“History will judge those who stay at his company.”
Our reading: History will judge negatively those who stay at OpenAI.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: Sam Altman’s greed and dishonesty are finally catching up to him
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Anyone who wants to work on LLMs can work elsewhere. Anyone who wants to use LLMs should go elsewhere.”
Our reading: People who want to use LLMs should use providers other than OpenAI, and those who want to work on LLMs can work elsewhere.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: Sam Altman’s greed and dishonesty are finally catching up to him
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“And all this was entirely predictable. Altman is bad news.”
Our reading: The backlash against Altman was entirely predictable; Altman is bad news.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: Sam Altman’s greed and dishonesty are finally catching up to him
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“And, now at long last, the world sees what the board saw, and what I saw (and what Karen Hao saw): having someone running a company with that much power to affect the world who is not consistently candid is not a good idea.”
Our reading: A person who is not consistently candid, such as Altman, should not be running a company as powerful as OpenAI.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: Sam Altman’s greed and dishonesty are finally catching up to him
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“In reality, Altman was never really all that interested in AI for the “benefit of humanity.” Mostly he was interested in Sam. And money, and deals.”
Our reading: Altman was never really all that interested in AI for the benefit of humanity; mostly he was interested in himself, and in money and deals.
No horizon
Qualifier: never really all that interested
Source: BREAKING: Sam Altman’s greed and dishonesty are finally catching up to him
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Given all that, the second part of the title of this essay (“don’t trust it with people’s lives”) should be obvious.”
Our reading: Generative AI should not be trusted with people's lives, given that it cannot even be trusted to do taxes.
No horizon
Qualifier: given that it cannot be trusted to do taxes reliably
Source: Don’t trust Generative AI to do your taxes — and don’t trust it with people’s lives
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Wanna feel good about yourself? Use a chatbot. Want to find truth? Go elsewhere.”
Our reading: People who want to feel good about themselves can use a chatbot, but people who want to find truth should go elsewhere than chatbots.
No horizon
Scope: for those who want to find truth
Source: Breaking: “sycophantic AI distorts belief, manufacturing certainty where there should be doubt”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“That, and it appears that both of these companies are deliberately obfuscating their real numbers as a means of making themselves look better.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic appear to deliberately obscure their real numbers to make themselves look better.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This suggests a fundamental weakness in the business model of renting out GPUs, which brings into question the value of NVIDIA’s $68.13bn in Q4 FY2026 revenue, or indeed, Coreweave’s $66.8bn revenue backlog.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's results suggest a fundamental weakness in the GPU-rental business model, which brings into question the value of NVIDIA's $68.13bn Q4 FY2026 revenue and CoreWeave's $66.8bn revenue backlog.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“While I think it’s far more likely that the US government itself shuts the door on Anthropic working with it for the foreseeable future even without the supply chain risk designation”
Our reading: The US government is more likely to stop working with Anthropic for the foreseeable future, even without the designation, than to make contractors cut it off.
No horizon
Qualifier: even without the supply chain risk designation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“In my mind, it’s far more likely that OpenAI’s losses were in excess of $10bn or even $20bn, especially when you factor in that OpenAI is paying an average of $1.5 million in yearly stock based compensation, per the Wall Street Journal.”
Our reading: OpenAI's 2025 losses were probably over $10bn, possibly over $20bn, not the reported $8bn.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It also suggests CoreWeave's customers — which include Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft (for OpenAI), Google, and a $6.3bn backstop from NVIDIA for any unsold capacity through 2032 — are paying like absolute crap.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's falling revenue per megawatt suggests that its customers, which include Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google and an NVIDIA backstop for unsold capacity, are paying very poorly.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests, inferred from revenue per megawatt
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“In reality, Claude is likely being used to go through a bunch of images and to answer questions about particular scenarios. There is very little specialized military training data, and I imagine many of the demands for “full access to powerful AI” have come as a result of Amodei and Altman’s bloviating about the “incredible power of AI.””
Our reading: Claude is likely being used to go through images and answer questions about particular scenarios, there is very little specialized military training data, and he imagines many of the demands for 'full access to powerful AI' came from Amodei and Altman's bloviating about AI's power.
No horizon
Scope: many of the demands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“There’s also another possible answer: I think OpenAI is lying to the media, because it knows the media won’t think too hard about the numbers or compare them.”
Our reading: He offers as another possible answer that he thinks OpenAI is lying to the media because it knows the media won't think hard about or compare its numbers.
No horizon
Qualifier: another possible answer
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The military’s demands were for “all lawful uses,” though I don’t think Anthropic really gives a shit about whether the war in Iran is legal, because if it did it would have shut down the chatbot rather than supported the conflict.”
Our reading: He does not think Anthropic really cares whether the war in Iran is legal, because if it did it would have shut down the chatbot rather than supported the conflict.
No horizon
Qualifier: I don't think
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“None of this would be possible without the consistent repetition of the falsehoods peddled by OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Our reading: Military reliance on chatbots would not be possible without the falsehoods OpenAI and Anthropic keep repeating about AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“The numbers do not make any sense when you actually put them together, and the reason that these companies continue to do this is that they’re confident that these outlets will never say a thing, or cover for the discrepancies by saying “these are projections!””
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's leaked numbers are inconsistent with each other, and they keep leaking them because they expect the media not to challenge the discrepancies.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Nothing about the military’s use of Claude makes it more useful or powerful than it was before — they’re probably just loading files into it and asking it long questions about things and going “huh” at the end.”
Our reading: Military use does not make Claude more capable; the military is probably just loading files into it and asking questions.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s stop pretending that Anthropic is some sort of ethical paragon! It’s the same old shit!”
Our reading: People should stop pretending Anthropic is some sort of ethical paragon, because it is the same old shit.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“All of this is to say that Altman definitely, absolutely loves war, and wants OpenAI to make money off of it”
Our reading: Altman definitely, absolutely loves war and wants OpenAI to make money off of it.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Both of them are willing and able to provide technology that will surveil or kill people, and while Amodei may have blushed at something to do with autonomous weapons or domestic surveillance, neither appear to have an issue with the actual harms that their models perpetuate.”
Our reading: Altman and Amodei are both willing and able to provide technology that will surveil or kill people, and although Amodei may have balked at autonomous weapons or domestic surveillance, neither appears to have an issue with the actual harms their models perpetuate.
No horizon
Qualifier: appear to
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If Hegseth and the administration were to truly want to punish Anthropic, they could put pressure on Amazon, Microsoft and Google to cut off Anthropic, which would cut it off from its entire compute operation”
Our reading: If the administration wanted to punish Anthropic, it could pressure Amazon, Microsoft and Google to cut Anthropic off from all of its compute.
No horizon
Only if: if the administration truly wants to punish Anthropic
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This is ultimately a PR move to make Altman seem more ethical, and position Amodei as a pedant that rejects his patriotism and prioritizes legalese over freedom.”
Our reading: OpenAI's strengthened contract language is a PR move to make Altman look more ethical and to cast Amodei as a pedant.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Worse still, NVIDIA’s earnings also mentioned $27bn in cloud commitments — literally paying its customers to rent the chips it sells, heavily suggesting that there isn’t the underlying revenue.”
Our reading: NVIDIA's $27bn in cloud commitments, which amount to paying customers to rent its chips, strongly suggest that the underlying demand revenue isn't there.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“In reality, we should loathe both Altman and Amodei for their natural jingoism and continual deception.”
Our reading: People should loathe both Altman and Amodei for their jingoism and constant deception.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Generative AI isn’t intelligent, but it allows people to pretend that it is, especially when the people selling the software — Altman and Amodei — so regularly overstate what it can do.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not intelligent, and Altman and Amodei regularly overstate what it can do.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“It’s so cool that OpenAI is just looting its non-profit!”
Our reading: He sarcastically condemns OpenAI as looting its non-profit, over a reported plan in which the nonprofit may sell several billion dollars of its shares to investors.
No horizon
Qualifier: nonprofit may sell shares depending on investment demand
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Neither of these men deserve a shred of credit or celebration. Both of them were and are ready and willing to monetize war, as long as it sort-of-kind-of follows the law.”
Our reading: Neither Altman nor Amodei deserves a shred of credit or celebration, because both were and are ready and willing to monetize war as long as it sort-of-kind-of follows the law.
No horizon
Qualifier: as long as it sort-of-kind-of follows the law
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“The vulgar dishonesty of Altman and Amodei puts blood on both of their hands, and it’s the duty of every single member of the media to remind people of this whenever you discuss their software.”
Our reading: Altman and Amodei have blood on their hands because of their dishonesty, and the media should point this out whenever it covers their software.
No horizon
Qualifier: whenever discussing their software
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Dario Amodei seems far more interested in creating a world dictated by what the United States of America deems to be legal or just, and providing services to help pursue those goals, as does OpenAI and, I’d argue, basically every AI lab.”
Our reading: Amodei seems far more interested in a world dictated by what the US deems legal or just, and in providing services to pursue those goals, than in benevolent AI, as does OpenAI and, he would argue, basically every AI lab.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Chief Executive Dario Amodei has spent the last few years massively overstating what LLMs can do in the pursuit of eternal growth.”
Our reading: For the last few years, Dario Amodei has greatly overstated what LLMs can do in order to drive growth.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But they have also been influential, and not in a good way.”
Our reading: Doomer AGI projections have been influential, and not in a good way.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“History will probably regard that as a turning point.2”
Our reading: History will probably regard the Pentagon's rejection of Anthropic and contract with OpenAI as a turning point.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Now we all may wind up paying the consequences. I am fully with the doomers in wanting to prepare for the future, but that needs to start with a realistic assessment of the present.”
Our reading: Preparing for the AI future should begin with a realistic assessment of current AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“And in so doing perhaps lead to thousands or millions of unnecessary deaths.”
Our reading: Governments' use of unreliable AI in war, by possibly leading to the accidental acceleration of war, may perhaps lead to thousands or millions of unnecessary deaths.
No horizon
Qualifier: via accidental acceleration of war
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Which (precisely because it is unreliable) may lead to the accidental acceleration of war.”
Our reading: Government use of unreliable AI in war may accidentally accelerate war.
No horizon
Qualifier: because the tech is unreliable
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“And we may wind up with a boy-who-cried wolf situation when true AGI does arrive.”
Our reading: When true AGI arrives, warnings may be ignored due to earlier false alarms.
No horizon
Only if: when true AGI does arrive
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“And it should be incumbent on them to understand the limitations and inaccuracies of the algorithms they choose.”
Our reading: Those who use military AI should be obliged to understand its limitations and inaccuracies.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In my own view the biggest problem with the algorithms targeting Gaza was not necessarily the algorithms per se (about which not much may be public) but the decision to tolerate a large number of civilian casualties as part of the targeting.”
Our reading: In Marcus's own view, the biggest problem with the algorithms targeting Gaza was not necessarily the algorithms themselves, about which not much may be public, but the decision to tolerate a large number of civilian casualties as part of the targeting.
No horizon
Qualifier: in my own view
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“Meanwhile, unless and until the military does actual empirical studies on collateral damage, we won’t really know whether AI is helping or hurting.”
Our reading: Without empirical military studies on collateral damage, we won't know whether AI is helping or hurting in targeting.
No horizon Evidence as of
Only if: unless the military does empirical studies on collateral damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“(More broadly, the military use of AI needs to be a granular question.”
Our reading: Military use of AI should be evaluated granularly, task by task.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Altman, for his part, doesn’t seem to care, having signed a contract entirely full of holes, despite making noises about red lines.”
Our reading: Altman signed a military contract full of holes despite talking about red lines, and seems not to care.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Mileage may vary according to the task, and may be worse in unfamiliar situations, given the inherent tendencies of generative AI.)”
Our reading: Because of its inherent tendencies, generative AI's military performance may vary by task and may be worse in unfamiliar situations.
No horizon
Qualifier: military tasks
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Some may lead to further escalation (a mass killing of school children could well do that); in the worst case, a series of escalations triggered by AI-triggered mistakes could lead to a nuclear war.”
Our reading: AI-triggered military mistakes may lead to escalation and, in the worst case, could lead to nuclear war.
No horizon
Qualifier: worst case
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“We may get little detail about AI’s role or non-role in incidents in the future.”
Our reading: The public may get little detail about AI's role in future military incidents.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We should absolutely want any AI that is used for war to be as precise and reliable as possible, minimizing casualties, but we should also never forget that those who use them are responsible for decisions about how many casualties are acceptable.”
Our reading: We should absolutely want any AI used for war to be as precise and reliable as possible, minimizing casualties, and we should never forget that those who use it are responsible for decisions about how many casualties are acceptable.
No horizon
Scope: any AI that is used for war
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Whether or not current AI algorithms are precise (probably they aren’t), and whether not humans are involved in the specific selection of targets, those who use military algorithms bear responsibility for the outcomes they produce.”
Our reading: Current AI algorithms are probably not precise.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Whether or not current AI algorithms are precise (probably they aren’t), and whether not humans are involved in the specific selection of targets, those who use military algorithms bear responsibility for the outcomes they produce.”
Our reading: Whether or not current AI algorithms are precise (probably they aren't), and whether or not humans are involved in the specific selection of targets, those who use military algorithms bear responsibility for the outcomes they produce.
No horizon
Qualifier: whether or not current AI algorithms are precise (probably they aren't)
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The race to shove AI into everything is grossly premature, because the tech fundamentally lack reliability.”
Our reading: The race to shove AI into everything is grossly premature because the technology fundamentally lacks reliability.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Meanwhile, the chance that we will get straight answers is probably close to zero.”
Our reading: The public will very probably not get straight answers about AI's role in military incidents.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Anthropic deserves a chance at EXACTLY the same terms; anything else reeks of corruption.”
Our reading: Anthropic should be given a chance at exactly the same government terms as OpenAI; anything else would look corrupt.
No horizon
Source: The whole thing was a scam
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“It was all theatre. Dario never had a chance.”
Our reading: The whole episode, including Altman's public support for Amodei while he was secretly working on his own deal, was all theatre, and Dario never had a chance.
No horizon
Source: The whole thing was a scam
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“My guess is that in time Trump will be remembered more for his AI policies than for ICE or his tariffs, and not in a good way.”
Our reading: Gary Marcus guesses that, in time, Trump will be remembered more for his AI policies than for ICE or his tariffs, and negatively.
No horizon
Qualifier: more than for ICE or tariffs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“This will almost certainly alienate a large part of Silicon Valley, and puts Sam Altman, and indeed the whole Valley, in a serious bind.”
Our reading: Trump's doubling down against Anthropic puts Sam Altman and the whole of Silicon Valley in a serious bind.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The finances just don’t make sense.”
Our reading: The finances behind OpenAI's new financing just don't make sense.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Even with Nvidia and other propping them up, I hold onto my longstanding sense that there is a good chance that OpenAI will someday be seen as the WeWork of AI.”
Our reading: There is a good chance that OpenAI will eventually be seen as the WeWork of AI, even with Nvidia and others supporting it.
No horizon
Qualifier: even with Nvidia and others propping it up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“That OpenAI’s’s valuation should more or less double in a year or so when they all but squandered their former lead appears, at least to me, to be insane.”
Our reading: To Marcus at least, it appears insane that OpenAI's valuation should more or less double in a year or so when OpenAI has all but squandered its former lead.
No horizon
Qualifier: appears, at least to me
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“This could well extend to nuclear weapons.”
Our reading: Unrestricted military use of Anthropic's AI could well extend to nuclear weapons.
No horizon
Source: America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Which means we might not have a Stanislav Petrov next time around.”
Our reading: Because the Block Nuclear Launch by Autonomous AI Act failed, there might be no human like Stanislav Petrov to stop a mistaken nuclear launch next time.
No horizon
Qualifier: given the failure of the Block Nuclear Launch by Autonomous AI Act
Source: America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Mass surveillance and AI-fueled weapons, possibly nuclear, without humans in the loop are categorically not things that one individual, even one in the Cabinet, should be allowed to decide at a gunpoint.”
Our reading: Mass surveillance and AI-fueled weapons, possibly nuclear, without humans in the loop are categorically not things that one individual, even one in the Cabinet, should be allowed to decide at gunpoint.
No horizon
Qualifier: possibly nuclear
Source: America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“He is right.”
Our reading: Marcus endorses the reader's view that whether AI may be used for surveillance of Americans and lethal strikes without humans in the loop must be decided publicly by Congress, not forced by the Pentagon.
No horizon
Source: America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Nothing that I have read convinces me that Secretary Hegseth has a nuanced understanding of the strengths and limits of current AI, or that he will show restraint in how he applies it.”
Our reading: Nothing Marcus has read convinces him that Secretary Hegseth has a nuanced understanding of the strengths and limits of current AI, or that Hegseth will show restraint in how he applies it.
No horizon
Scope: nothing that I have read
Source: America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The second is that Hegseth’s maneuver is an audacious power grabs that aims to circumvent Congress. By setting a deadline of 5:01 PM eastern tomorrow, Hegseth aims to cut everybody else – even Congress — out of the loop.”
Our reading: Hegseth's deadline to Anthropic is a power grab meant to circumvent Congress and cut others out of the decision.
No horizon
Source: America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“AI policy, especially of this magnitude, is something that American people should have a say in. Congress should deliberate.”
Our reading: The American people should have a say in AI policy, especially AI policy of this magnitude, and Congress should deliberate.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially of this magnitude
Source: America, and probably the world, stands on a precipice.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“CoreWeave is arguably the largest AI compute vendor outside of the hyperscalers. If there was significant demand, none of this would be necessary.”
Our reading: NVIDIA's $27 billion in cloud agreements renting back its GPUs would be unnecessary if there were significant demand for AI compute, implying demand is weak.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“It might tell you it's completely compliant and that it will run like a hot knife through butter — but LLMs don’t know anything, and you cannot be sure Claude is telling the truth as a result.”
Our reading: Claude might tell you its output is fully compliant and will run well, but because LLMs don't know anything, you cannot be sure Claude is telling the truth.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“As I discussed last week, Anthropic’s primary business model is deception, muddying the waters of what’s possible today and what might be possible tomorrow through a mixture of flimsy marketing statements and chief executive Dario Amodei’s doomerist lies about all white collar labor disappearing.”
Our reading: Anthropic's primary business model is deception about AI capabilities, including Amodei's claims about white collar labor disappearing.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“This is the grifter economy, and the people that should be stopping them are asleep at the wheel.”
Our reading: The AI hype economy is a grifter economy, and the media and markets meant to check it are asleep at the wheel.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“This is thanks to the intentionally-deceptive marketing pedalled by Anthropic and validated by the media.”
Our reading: Investors' confusion about AI replacing software is caused by Anthropic's intentionally deceptive marketing, validated by the media.
No horizon
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If anything changes here — such as difficulty acquiring debt or investor pressure cutting capex — NVIDIA is in real trouble, as it’s made over $95 billion in commitments to build out for the AI bubble.”
Our reading: If anything changes in hyperscalers' pattern of ever-growing GPU purchases, such as difficulty acquiring debt or investor pressure cutting capex, NVIDIA is in real trouble because it has made over $95 billion in commitments to build out for the AI bubble.
No horizon
Only if: if anything changes in hyperscalers' GPU purchasing, such as difficulty acquiring debt or investor pressure cutting capex
Source: On NVIDIA and Analyslop
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“Spreading it everywhere without proper consideration could well lead to disaster.”
Our reading: Deploying LLMs everywhere without proper consideration of their unreliability could well lead to disaster.
No horizon
Only if: if spread everywhere without proper consideration
Source: 30 seconds to midnight? 15?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“It should be obvious that applying hallucinatory and unreliable Generative AI to weapon systems without humans in the loop could be catastrophic.”
Our reading: Applying generative AI to weapon systems without humans in the loop could be catastrophic.
No horizon
Only if: if applied to weapon systems without humans in the loop
Source: 30 seconds to midnight? 15?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If we’re going to embed LLMs into the fabric of the world - and apparently we are - we MUST do so in a way that acknowledges and factors in their unreliability.”
Our reading: If LLMs are going to be embedded throughout the world, this must be done in a way that recognizes and accounts for their unreliability.
No horizon
Qualifier: if LLMs are embedded throughout the world
Source: 30 seconds to midnight? 15?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Given White House pressure to immediately use models that we cannot trust throughout the military, this is no longer a drill.”
Our reading: With the White House pushing to use untrustworthy AI models across the military right away, the danger is now real.
No horizon
Qualifier: given White House pressure to use untrusted models throughout the military
Source: 30 seconds to midnight? 15?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“But unless Anthropic successfully stares down the Department of War, generative AI, as “jagged” as it is, will likely soon be used in *exactly* that way.”
Our reading: Unless Anthropic successfully resists the Department of War, generative AI will likely soon be used to make major life-or-death decisions.
No horizon
Only if: unless Anthropic successfully resists the Department of War
Source: 30 seconds to midnight? 15?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“We are on a collision course with catastrophe.”
Our reading: The current path of AI deployment, especially in the military, is heading toward catastrophe.
No horizon
Source: 30 seconds to midnight? 15?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“And it may well lay waste to our economy, once banks and investors who bought the hype start to fall.”
Our reading: Generative AI may well lay waste to the economy once banks and investors who bought the hype start to fail.
No horizon
Only if: once banks and investors who bought the hype start to fall
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“When all is said and done, my best guess is that generative AI will have done significantly more harm to society than good.”
Our reading: Marcus's best guess is that generative AI will ultimately have done significantly more harm to society than good.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Confusing increasingly sophisticated statistical approximation with general intelligence is therefore not only a conceptual error, but a strategic misjudgment.”
Our reading: Confusing increasingly sophisticated statistical approximation with general intelligence is not only a conceptual error but also a strategic misjudgment.
No horizon
Source: Rumors of AGI’s arrival have been greatly exaggerated
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“By focusing on specific benchmarks, these definitions miss the generality that was central to the original definitions, as discussed in the next section, thereby reflecting a fundamental misunderstanding of how intelligence should be evaluated.”
Our reading: Definitions that treat AGI as strong performance on standardized benchmarks miss the generality that was central to the original definitions, and so reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of how intelligence should be evaluated.
No horizon
Source: Rumors of AGI’s arrival have been greatly exaggerated