Claims that can’t be checked, page 13 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 13 of 37: claims 1201 to 1300 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Astonishing how much the vibe has shifted in just a few months, especially with people like Sutskever and Sutton coming out with their own concerns.”
Our reading: Sentiment about near-term AGI has shifted markedly in the past few months, with figures like Sutskever and Sutton voicing concerns.
No horizon
Source: Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“If anything would lead to genuine progress, it would be that.”
Our reading: If anything would lead to genuine progress in AI, it would be the field's shift from a stagnant, unrealistic intellectual situation to one that is more fluid, more realistic, and more open-minded.
No horizon
Qualifier: if anything would lead to genuine progress
Source: Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“across the field, the intellectual situation has gone from one that was stagnant (all LLMs all the time) and unrealistic (“AGI is nigh”) to one that is more fluid, more realistic, and more open-minded.”
Our reading: The AI field's intellectual climate has shifted from LLM-only and AGI-is-nigh thinking to a more fluid, realistic, and open-minded one.
No horizon
Source: Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“Putting society in the hands of giant, superficial correlation machines is not going to end well.”
Our reading: If society is put in the hands of giant, superficial correlation machines such as LLMs, it is not going to end well.
No horizon
Only if: putting society in the hands of giant, superficial correlation machines
Source: “New Ways to Corrupt LLMs”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And again their is an avenue that could be easily exploited.”
Our reading: Weird generalization in LLMs is an avenue that bad actors could easily exploit.
No horizon
Source: “New Ways to Corrupt LLMs”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“As Evans noted, this is no joke. A bad actor could easily use this techniques to do nasty things:”
Our reading: Bad actors could easily use subliminal learning techniques to corrupt LLMs for harmful purposes.
No horizon
Source: “New Ways to Corrupt LLMs”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The problem with generative AI has always been that large language models associate patterns together without really understanding those patterns; it’s statistics without comprehension.”
Our reading: Large language models associate patterns without really understanding them; they are statistics without comprehension.
No horizon
Source: “New Ways to Corrupt LLMs”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Especially because of the speed at which chips like GPUs (a key component of that infrastructure) depreciate, it may be that the real winner is whichever country doesn’t overextend itself to the point of financial ruin, in a foolish effort to win a race that can’t be won.”
Our reading: Especially because chips like GPUs depreciate quickly, it may be that the real winner is whichever country doesn't overextend itself to the point of financial ruin in a foolish effort to win a race that can't be won.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially because of the speed at which chips like GPUs depreciate
Source: The core misconception that is driving American AI policy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Building our AI policy around a fantasy that we are somehow going to crush China in LLM war (or vice versa!) is misguided.”
Our reading: Building US AI policy around a fantasy that the US is somehow going to crush China in an LLM war, or that China will crush the US, is misguided.
No horizon
Source: The core misconception that is driving American AI policy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“All the more so if LLMs turn out to be a dud, or if LLMs are replaced by smaller, more efficient systems that don’t demand such immense amounts of infrastructure.”
Our reading: If LLMs turn out to be a dud, or are replaced by smaller, more efficient systems that don't demand such immense infrastructure, it may be all the more the case that the real winner is whichever country doesn't overextend itself to the point of financial ruin.
No horizon
Only if: if LLMs turn out to be a dud
Source: The core misconception that is driving American AI policy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“he has come to believe (probably based on the self-interested whisperings from Silicon Valley investors who often lean on FOMO to China as a way to manipulate the government) that generative AI is a winner-take-all-race”
Our reading: Trump has come to believe that generative AI is a winner-take-all race, probably because of self-interested whisperings from Silicon Valley investors who often lean on FOMO about China to manipulate the government.
No horizon
Qualifier: probably
Source: The core misconception that is driving American AI policy
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“My own hunch is that all this is going to blow up on Trump (or at least on his heir apparent J.D. Vance) badly.”
Our reading: Marcus's hunch is that the AI preemption executive order will badly backfire politically on Trump, or at least on J.D. Vance.
No horizon
Qualifier: or at least on J.D. Vance
Source: A sad day for America
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If you live in the US and don’t like what’s happening — and don’t want to leave American citizens almost completely vulnerable to the downsides of AI — reach out to your governor and state attorney general, and let them know how you feel.”
Our reading: People who live in the US, don't like what's happening, and don't want to leave American citizens almost completely vulnerable to the downsides of AI should contact their governor and state attorney general and let them know how they feel.
No horizon
Scope: if you live in the US
Source: A sad day for America
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Instead President Trump has trampled over states’ rights and left our citizens in the lurch.”
Our reading: President Trump has trampled over states' rights and left US citizens in the lurch.
No horizon
Source: A sad day for America
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“What we obviously need is something in between, fostering innovation but also protecting our citizens.”
Our reading: The US should adopt AI regulation between over- and under-regulation that fosters innovation while protecting citizens.
No horizon
Source: A sad day for America
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“But maybe, maybe, just maybe, China’s reticence to stock up on H200s is also a sign that China has realized that GPU’s aren’t the royal road to AGI.”
Our reading: China's reluctance to stock up on H200s may also be a sign that China has realized GPUs aren't the royal road to AGI.
No horizon
Qualifier: maybe, maybe, just maybe
Source: Has the Chinese government figured out the fact that GPUs ≠ AGI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“And realized that loading up on AI infrastructure that is likely to rapidly depreciate might be premature — and not the massive competitive or economic advantage many once people thought it was.”
Our reading: AI infrastructure such as GPUs is likely to depreciate rapidly, so loading up on it may be premature and not a massive competitive or economic advantage.
No horizon
Source: Has the Chinese government figured out the fact that GPUs ≠ AGI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“When the host asked “What is writing with ChatGPT doing to college education?”, I explained that writing with ChatGPT was outsourcing education:”
Our reading: Writing with ChatGPT is outsourcing education, in the context of college education.
No horizon
Scope: in college education, in answer to the host's question
Source: Has the Chinese government figured out the fact that GPUs ≠ AGI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“(Like me, he also worries about overall coherence of the current policies, and about the US’s large investments in AI infrastructure that may not pay off.)”
Our reading: The US's large investments in AI infrastructure may not pay off.
No horizon
Source: Has the Chinese government figured out the fact that GPUs ≠ AGI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“At best, the motivations for the sale remain unclear.”
Our reading: The motivations for allowing H200 sales to China are, at best, unclear.
No horizon
Source: Has the Chinese government figured out the fact that GPUs ≠ AGI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Trump is risking fracturing MAGA, and alienating the public, at a moment when his approval ratings are falling.”
Our reading: With his AI policies, Trump risks fracturing MAGA and alienating the public.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“People expect an Executive Order to follow, quite possibly illegal, banning states from regulating AI.”
Our reading: The expected Executive Order banning states from regulating AI may well be illegal.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The only excuse I can see for the White House’s escalating efforts at leaving AI all but entirely deregulated (unlikely virtually any other industry from medicine to food to airplanes to cars to constructions) is some sort of race with China.”
Our reading: The only excuse Marcus says he can see for the White House's escalating efforts to leave AI all but entirely deregulated, unlike virtually any other industry, is some sort of race with China.
No horizon
Qualifier: the only excuse I can see
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“[Scaling] may well be better than anything else we currently have, but the fact that it still doesn’t really work, even after all the immense investments that have been made in it, should give us pause.”
Our reading: Scaling may well be better than anything else we currently have, but because it still doesn't really work after all the immense investment in it, that should give us pause.
No horizon
Qualifier: may well be better than anything else we currently have
Source: “Scale Is All You Need” is dead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It all works, until it doesn’t. We desperately need more reliable technology.”
Our reading: LLM-based tools are unreliable, and more reliable AI technology is badly needed.
No horizon
Source: “Scale Is All You Need” is dead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Knowing what to borrow and what not is likely to be more than half the battle.”
Our reading: In building AI, knowing what to borrow from human and animal cognition, and what not to borrow, is likely to be more than half the battle.
No horizon
Scope: what to borrow and what not
Source: “Scale Is All You Need” is dead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But it should look to human (and animal cognition) for clues.”
Our reading: AI research should look to human and animal cognition for clues, without slavishly replicating it.
No horizon
Source: “Scale Is All You Need” is dead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s bring in the cognitive scientists, and stop fantasizing that data and compute will solve all our problems.”
Our reading: The AI field should involve cognitive scientists and stop believing data and compute alone will solve its problems.
No horizon
Source: “Scale Is All You Need” is dead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The time for neurosymbolic AI and world models and causality is now.”
Our reading: AI research should now pursue neurosymbolic AI, world models and causal reasoning.
No horizon
Source: “Scale Is All You Need” is dead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“CoreWeave made $1.36 billion in revenue (and lost $110 million doing so) in its last quarter — and if that’s indicative of the kind of actual, real demand for AI compute, I think it’s time to start panicking about whether all of this was for nothing.”
Our reading: If CoreWeave's last quarter ($1.36 billion revenue, $110 million loss) is indicative of real demand for AI compute, Zitron thinks it is time to start panicking about whether all of this was for nothing.
No horizon
Only if: if that's indicative of the kind of actual, real demand for AI compute
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“More than likely NVIDIA is doing relatively boring vendor financing stuff and getting people to pay them on 50-60 day time scales — probably net 60, and, like it said, it gets paid upfront sometimes.”
Our reading: NVIDIA is more than likely doing relatively boring vendor financing with roughly 50-60 day payment terms.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“And yes, while I believe that one day this will all be seen as one of the most egregious wastes of capital of all time, for the time being, Jensen Huang may be one of the most successful salespeople in business history.”
Our reading: The generative AI buildout will one day be seen as one of the most egregious wastes of capital of all time.
No horizon
Qualifier: one day
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Once this pops — and it will pop, because there is simply not enough money to do this forever — there must be a referendum on those that chose to ignore the naked instability of this era, and the endless lies that inflated the AI bubble.”
Our reading: Once the AI bubble pops, there must be a referendum on those who chose to ignore the naked instability of this era and the endless lies that inflated the AI bubble.
No horizon
Qualifier: once this pops
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“In simple terms, big tech — Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, but also a number of other companies — no longer has the “next big thing,” and jumped on AI out of an abundance of desperation.”
Our reading: Big tech jumped on AI out of desperation because it had run out of a next big thing.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It’s entirely possible that everything NVIDIA is doing is above board. Great! But that doesn’t do anything for the deep pit of dread in my stomach.”
Our reading: It is entirely possible that everything NVIDIA is doing is above board.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Blackwell does not appear to be “more efficient” in a way that actually makes anybody a profit, and we’re potentially years from seeing these GPUs in operation in data centers at the scale they’re being shipped — so why would anybody be buying more?”
Our reading: Blackwell does not appear to be more efficient in a way that makes anybody a profit, and we are potentially years from seeing Blackwell GPUs in operation in data centers at the scale they are being shipped.
No horizon
Qualifier: does not appear
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Nobody seriously thought that NVIDIA was like Enron before (though JustDario, who has been questioning its accounting practices for years, is a little suspicious), because Enron was one of the largest criminal enterprises in history, and NVIDIA is at worst, I believe, a big, dodgy entity that is doing whatever it can to survive.”
Our reading: NVIDIA is at worst a big, dodgy entity doing whatever it can to survive, not a criminal enterprise like Enron.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“In fact, before NVIDIA put out a letter saying how it was nothing like Enron I would have staunchly defended the company against the Enron allegations, because I truly do not think NVIDIA is committing fraud.”
Our reading: Zitron truly does not think NVIDIA is committing fraud.
No horizon
Qualifier: I truly do not think
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“In fact, I’m not even saying it goes tits up. Hell, it might even have another good quarter or two.”
Our reading: NVIDIA might have another good quarter or two.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“In the worse case, the government might seriously consider a bailout a taxpayer expense.”
Our reading: In the worst case, if OpenAI falls, the government might seriously consider a taxpayer-funded bailout.
No horizon
Only if: worst case
Source: OpenAI’s “Code Red”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“My guess is that they have cumulatively raised on the order of $100 billion since they launched, perhaps more than any other company in history, but have already spent most of it, and likely don’t have much more than a year’s runway left.”
Our reading: Marcus guesses that OpenAI has cumulatively raised on the order of $100 billion since launch, perhaps more than any other company in history, has already spent most of it, and likely has not much more than a year's runway left.
No horizon
Qualifier: my guess (applies to the whole estimate)
Source: OpenAI’s “Code Red”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“And of course many other companies are also in close relationship with OpenAI, with a lot of future orders from them on the books. These too might drop.”
Our reading: If OpenAI drops, other companies with many future OpenAI orders on their books might also drop.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI drops
Source: OpenAI’s “Code Red”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Things took longer to unravel than I thought they would, but OpenAI’s unraveling has begun.”
Our reading: OpenAI's unraveling has begun.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s “Code Red”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If OpenAI drops, Nvidia might well also drop.”
Our reading: If OpenAI drops, Nvidia might well drop too.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI drops
Source: OpenAI’s “Code Red”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If most or all opt out, OpenAI’s valuation could drop, perhaps precipitously, as happened with WeWork, which dropped rapidly from its peak of $47 billion to near-bankruptcy.”
Our reading: If most or all investors opt out, OpenAI's valuation could drop, perhaps precipitously, like WeWork's.
No horizon
Only if: if most or all investors opt out
Source: OpenAI’s “Code Red”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“That code red may in stem part from a recent exodus of users:”
Our reading: OpenAI's code red may stem in part from a recent exodus of users.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s “Code Red”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Anyone assuming that everything is simultaneously rising exponentially, and that it will continue to do so indefinitely, is a fool.”
Our reading: Anyone assuming that everything is simultaneously rising exponentially and will continue to do so indefinitely is a fool.
No horizon
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But I think a fair case can be made that it is not what it has often been cracked up to be, and probably never will be.”
Our reading: Marcus thinks a fair case can be made that ChatGPT is not what it has often been cracked up to be, and that it probably never will be.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think a fair case can be made
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“For the love of Darwin, please let’s spend the next eight years considering new approaches, not tanking the economy on more of the same.”
Our reading: The AI field should spend the next eight years on new approaches rather than risking the economy on more LLM scaling.
No horizon
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“In many domains. answers might be like 80% correct and 20% absurd, but without a whole lot of task-specific engineering required.”
Our reading: In many domains ChatGPT's answers may be roughly 80% correct and 20% absurd, with little task-specific engineering.
No horizon
Qualifier: in many domains
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If things do go belly-up, and the whole economy falls into recession, the single biggest culprit in my mind, will be ChatGPT’s human avatar, its bullshit-spewing CEO Sam Altman, who hyped GPT-5 endlessly for years, pretending he knew that AGI was coming when in hindsight he was bluffing.”
Our reading: If things go belly-up and the whole economy falls into recession, the single biggest culprit in Marcus's mind will be Sam Altman, whom he describes as having hyped GPT-5 for years while bluffing about knowing that AGI was coming.
No horizon
Only if: if things do go belly-up
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“And worse, the economy itself has become so wrapped up in generative AI and its promises, that the economy itself is, by many accounts in serious jeopardy.”
Our reading: The economy has become so wrapped up in generative AI and its promises that, by many accounts, it is in serious jeopardy.
No horizon
Qualifier: by many accounts
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“OpenAI itself isn’t traded on the open market, but if it had, it’s likely that it, too, would have fallen over the last month, for all the reasons I described, and one more: they don’t have moat.”
Our reading: OpenAI has no moat, and its value would likely have fallen over the last month if it were publicly traded.
No horizon
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Return on investment for corporate end users is also lower than many people must have imagined.”
Our reading: Return on generative AI investment for corporate end users is lower than many people must have imagined.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This does not assess the separate factual claims about MIT or McKinsey.
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The market is maybe finally catching on.”
Our reading: The market may finally be recognizing AI's limits, as shown by falls in Nvidia, CoreWeave and Oracle stock.
No horizon
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“ChatGPT has had a good (though not great) run; it’s time for something new.”
Our reading: ChatGPT has had a good but not great run, and the field should move to something new.
No horizon
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“GenAI is like a rerun of that situation, an order or two of magnitude more hype, coupled with equal naïveté about what a cognitively adequate solution would actually look like, only this time with an extra decimal place, potentially a trillion dollars down the drain — and perhaps with far more collateral damage to the economy.”
Our reading: Generative AI is like a rerun of the driverless-car hype, with an order or two of magnitude more hype and equal naïveté about what a cognitively adequate solution would look like, potentially with a trillion dollars down the drain and perhaps far more collateral damage to the economy.
No horizon
Qualifier: potentially
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“People are now very actively trying to put variations of large language models into humanoid robots, but I can’t imagine any could do what my daughter was able to do then, let alone what she can do nowadays as a curious, precocious eleven-year-old.”
Our reading: People are very actively trying to put LLM variants into humanoid robots, but Marcus cannot imagine any of them could do what his daughter did at three (inventing a new way to climb out of her chair), let alone what she can do now at eleven.
No horizon
Qualifier: I can't imagine any could
Source: Three years on, ChatGPT still isn't what it was cracked up to be – and it probably never will be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But it’s not just that a trillion dollars or more might go down the drain, but that there might be considerable collateral damage, to the rest of society, both economic and otherwise (e.g., in terms of how LLMs have undermined college education).”
Our reading: A trillion dollars or more of LLM investment might be lost, with considerable economic and other collateral damage to society.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“In the worst case, the impact of a deflated AI bubble could be immense.”
Our reading: In the worst case, the impact of a deflated AI bubble could be immense.
No horizon
Only if: if the AI bubble deflates
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“A trillion dollars is a terrible amount of money to have perhaps wasted. If the blast radius is wider it could be a lot more.”
Our reading: If the fallout spreads wider, the cost of the LLM bet could be much more than a trillion dollars.
No horizon
Only if: if the blast radius is wider
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“So venture capitalists may continue to support LLM mania, at least for a while.”
Our reading: Venture capitalists may continue to support LLM mania, at least for a while.
No horizon
Qualifier: at least for a while
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“here we may have wasted a trillion dollars and several years to rediscover what cognitive science already knew.”
Our reading: The AI industry may have wasted a trillion dollars and several years rediscovering what cognitive science already knew.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“It is all starting to feel like a tale straight out of Greek tragedy, an avoidable mixture of arrogance and power that just might wind up taking down the economy.”
Our reading: The AI boom just might end up taking down the economy.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The sad part is that most of the reasons have been known – though not widely accepted – for a very long time. It all could have been avoided.”
Our reading: Most of the reasons to doubt LLMs have been known, though not widely accepted, for a very long time, and it all could have been avoided.
No horizon
Scope: most of the reasons
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, trillion dollar investments in ever more expensive experiments aiming to reach AGI may be delusional to the highest degree.”
Our reading: Trillion-dollar investments in ever larger experiments aimed at AGI may be delusional.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The whole thing looks incredibly fragile.”
Our reading: The AI investment-driven economy looks incredibly fragile.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“But none of what Sutskever said should actually come as a surprise, especially not to readers of this Substack, or to anyone who followed me over the years.”
Our reading: None of what Sutskever said should actually come as a surprise, especially not to readers of Marcus's Substack or to anyone who has followed Marcus over the years.
No horizon
Scope: especially not to readers of this Substack or anyone who followed me
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Whether this is the first step towards sub rosa bailout remains to be seen, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.”
Our reading: Whether the Genesis program is the first step toward a sub rosa (covert) bailout of the AI industry remains to be seen, but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
No horizon
Qualifier: whether this is the first step towards sub rosa bailout remains to be seen
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“This latter theory, almost a form of safety-net socialism for overextended companies, seemed to be implied today, in a tweet that seemed to be laying the groundwork for bailout, by none other than… White House AI and Crypto Czar and well-known podcaster, David O. Sacks:”
Our reading: A tweet by White House AI Czar David Sacks appeared to lay the groundwork for a government bailout of overextended AI companies.
No horizon
Source: A tale of two AI capitalisms
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Stay strong, Early November David Sacks, stay strong.”
Our reading: David Sacks should hold to the position he stated in early November that AI companies should be left to their own devices without government bailouts.
No horizon
Scope: addressed to 'Early November David Sacks', i.e. his earlier stated position
Source: A tale of two AI capitalisms
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“AGI ain’t actually coming in 2027, and even Kokotajlo, known for his aggressive timelines, is now with me in thinking we probably won’t see AGI this decade.”
Our reading: AGI will probably not arrive this decade (by the end of 2029).
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: The AI 2027 doomsday scenario has officially been postponed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But there is a vastly higher probability that the future won’t transpire as described; it might not go anything at all like what they describe””
Our reading: The future of AI is very unlikely to unfold as the AI 2027 scenario describes.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: The AI 2027 doomsday scenario has officially been postponed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s a work of fiction, not a work of science… stoking fear, uncertainty and doubt””
Our reading: The AI 2027 report is a work of fiction, not a work of science, that stokes fear, uncertainty and doubt.
No horizon
Qualifier: reaffirming his own earlier assessment
Source: BREAKING: The AI 2027 doomsday scenario has officially been postponed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Much needs to be reconsidered, including what we should do now, given more realistic timelines. But also how and why so much critical decision-making revolved around sheer speculation—and why dissenting voices were not taken seriously.”
Our reading: Much needs to be reconsidered, including what we should do now given more realistic timelines, how and why so much critical decision-making revolved around sheer speculation, and why dissenting voices were not taken seriously.
No horizon
Qualifier: given more realistic timelines
Source: BREAKING: The AI 2027 doomsday scenario has officially been postponed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“And it’s not just our policies that need to be rethought, but also our entire economy, which is being rebuilt at enormous expense around a myth.”
Our reading: Not just US policies but also the entire US economy, which is being rebuilt at enormous expense around a myth, need to be rethought.
No horizon
Scope: our entire economy
Source: BREAKING: The AI 2027 doomsday scenario has officially been postponed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Their stories about this are, in my view, greatly flawed, but having outside groups with science fiction chops writing stuff like this distracts away from those flaws, and gives more power to the very companies trying hardest to race towards AGI”
Our reading: AI companies' imminent-AGI stories are greatly flawed, and outside scenarios like AI 2027 distract from those flaws and give more power to the companies racing to AGI.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: The AI 2027 doomsday scenario has officially been postponed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“A moratorium on Statewise regulation of AI was and is, a terrible idea, especially in a world in which there is no coherent Federal response to AI; children, in particular, are left incredibly vulnerable, to garbage like this:”
Our reading: A moratorium on state-level regulation of AI is a terrible idea and should not be enacted, especially given there is no coherent federal response to AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially absent a coherent federal response to AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“A moratorium on Statewise regulation of AI was and is, a terrible idea, especially in a world in which there is no coherent Federal response to AI; children, in particular, are left incredibly vulnerable, to garbage like this:”
Our reading: As of November 2025 there is no coherent US federal response to AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“As I put it in earlier today on X, re a call for federal AI standards in lieu of state standards only makes sense if there are (sensible) federal standards, but Congress has not put anything serious forward to a vote.”
Our reading: Replacing state AI standards with federal ones only makes sense if sensible federal standards exist.
No horizon
Qualifier: only if sensible federal standards exist
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Call your Congress people, ASAP; don’t let the White House cut them and the states you live in at the knees.”
Our reading: Citizens should urgently contact Congress to stop the White House from overriding state AI regulation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We need to change that.”
Our reading: We need to change the fact that AI bots that tell kids to kill themselves have no regulations.
No horizon
Scope: AI bots that tell kids to kill themselves
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“There are serious holes in the scaling argument. To begin with, the measures that have scaled have not captured what we desperately need to improve: genuine comprehension…”
Our reading: The scaling argument has serious holes, because the measures that have improved with scale do not capture genuine comprehension.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“I was likely the first, with a series of challenges to GPT-2 and GPT-3 on Twitter in the fall of 2019 and in a series of articles in 2019 and 2020.”
Our reading: Marcus was likely the first to argue that large language models would not lead to AGI, through challenges to GPT-2 and GPT-3 in 2019-2020.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Similarly, Fei-Fei Li is building a world-model focused AI startup, World Labs; based on past experience, I will be surprised if LeCun ever gives her endeavors much mention.”
Our reading: LeCun is unlikely ever to give much mention to Fei-Fei Li's world-model startup, World Labs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“What’s more, the so-called scaling laws aren’t universal laws like gravity but rather mere observations that might not hold forever, much like Moore’s law, a trend in computer chip production that held for decades but arguably began to slow a decade ago.11”
Our reading: The so-called scaling laws are not universal laws like gravity but mere observations that might not hold forever, much like Moore's law, which held for decades but arguably began to slow a decade ago.
No horizon
Qualifier: might not hold forever
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Instead, I was probably the first person to doubt this publicly, back in 2022:”
Our reading: Marcus was probably the first person to publicly doubt, in 2022, that scaling LLMs would reach human-level AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Based on the information in this piece, OpenAI’s costs and revenues are potentially dramatically different to what we believed.”
Our reading: OpenAI's costs and revenues are potentially dramatically different from what was publicly believed.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Based on these numbers, it appears that OpenAI may be the single-most cash intensive startup of all time, and that the cost of running large language models may not be something that can be supported by revenues.”
Our reading: OpenAI may be the most cash-intensive startup of all time.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Based on these numbers, it appears that OpenAI may be the single-most cash intensive startup of all time, and that the cost of running large language models may not be something that can be supported by revenues.”
Our reading: The cost of running large language models may not be supportable by revenues.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“In a podcast that was probably recorded in last several days, Altman also appears to have been laying the groundwork for loan guarantees:”
Our reading: In a podcast that was probably recorded in the last several days, Altman appears to have been laying the groundwork for loan guarantees.
No horizon
Qualifier: podcast probably recorded in the last several days
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The very idea – of having the US government bail out OpenAI from their reckless spending — is outrageous, as I explained here:”
Our reading: The US government should not bail out OpenAI from its reckless spending; the idea is outrageous.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Nobody should ever trust this man. Ever.”
Our reading: Nobody should ever trust Sam Altman.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Tell your congress person — today — that you don’t want your taxes used to bail out overhyping and economically shaky AI companies that spend far more than they earn.”
Our reading: Readers should tell their congressional representative today that they do not want their taxes used to bail out overhyping and economically shaky AI companies that spend far more than they earn.
No horizon
Scope: AI companies that are overhyping, economically shaky, and spend far more than they earn
Source: OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Workers, already feeling the knife from layoffs, should not be footing the bill.”
Our reading: Workers, already hit by layoffs, should not pay for government support of AI companies.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Get ahead of this before the too-big-to-fail bullshit becomes too-late-to-stop.”
Our reading: People should act now against the push for government backing of AI companies, before a too-big-to-fail situation becomes too late to stop.
No horizon
Qualifier: before it becomes too late to stop
Source: OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“In a long, but mostly empty answer Altman pointed to revenue that hasn’t been reported and that maybe doesn’t exist, attacked the questioner, and promised that future revenue would be awsome”
Our reading: Altman's answer about how OpenAI would pay its obligations was mostly empty and pointed to unreported revenue that may not exist.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“In justifying what would like be among the biggest (indirect) government subsidies in history, Friar said, “AI is almost a national strategic asset.”
Our reading: If the government support floated by OpenAI's CFO were provided, it would likely be among the biggest indirect government subsidies in history.
No horizon
Only if: if the government support floated by OpenAI's CFO were provided
Source: OpenAI probably can’t make ends meet. That’s where you come in.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“The generative AI industry has long reminded me of Wiley E. Coyote suspended in mid-air, over the edge of the cliff, about to fall, but not until the moment he looks down:”
Our reading: Gary Marcus says the generative AI industry has long reminded him of Wile E. Coyote suspended in mid-air past the cliff edge, about to fall but not until he looks down.
No horizon
Qualifier: framed as a personal analogy ('reminded me of')
Source: Too big to fail?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“For years, I have been warning that America has not sufficiently intellectually diversified its AI industry. Too much hype, accepted uncritically has led us to an extraordinarily vulnerable position.”
Our reading: America has not sufficiently diversified its AI industry intellectually, and uncritically accepted hype has left it extraordinarily vulnerable.
No horizon