Claims that can’t be checked, page 9 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 9 of 37: claims 801 to 900 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Claude is akin to a counterfeit person.”
Our reading: Claude is akin to a counterfeit person.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Replace LaMDA with Claude, and every word still applies.”
Our reading: His 2022 critique of LaMDA applies fully to Claude: it matches statistical patterns, its words lack meaning, it has no coherent understanding of the world, and it is not sentient.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“I am sure Claude can draw on its training data to wax poetic about orgasm, but that doesn’t mean it has ever felt one.”
Our reading: Claude being able to draw on its training data to wax poetic about orgasm, which Marcus is sure it can do, does not mean Claude has ever felt one.
No horizon
Qualifier: I am sure Claude can draw on its training data to wax poetic about orgasm
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Coders (especially vibe coders with little experience) beware.”
Our reading: Coders, especially inexperienced vibe coders, should be wary of the robustness of AI-generated code.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially inexperienced vibe coders
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“And all you OpenClaw devotees, that goes 10x, if not 100x, for you.”
Our reading: OpenClaw devotees should beware the robustness of AI-generated code even more than other coders, by what Marcus puts as '10x, if not 100x'.
No horizon
Scope: OpenClaw devotees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“As it should.”
Our reading: Skepticism about AI's technical and economic prospects, including the heavy spending on AI infrastructure, should be rising.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The world would be better off if the transition to for-profit was unwound forcing the company to benefit humanity, as Musk has asked.”
Our reading: OpenAI's transition to for-profit should be unwound so the company is forced to benefit humanity.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I hope his lawyers will keep focus on OpenAI’s pattern of behavior, rather than on his own contributions to the company.”
Our reading: Musk's lawyers should focus the trial on OpenAI's pattern of behavior rather than Musk's contributions.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Tactically, from what I can glean from the reporting, Musk may be making the trial too much about himself.”
Our reading: Musk may be making the OpenAI trial too much about himself.
No horizon
Qualifier: based on reporting
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“It’s an insult to both good software and good taste — the most-expensive, least-reliable applications ever invented, their mistakes forgiven, their mediocrities celebrated, their infrastructure hailed as an inert god of capital.”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's products are the most expensive and least reliable applications ever made.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Members of the media, I say this with abundant respect: Anthropic is mistreating its customers, and it is doing so because it believes it can get away with it.”
Our reading: Anthropic is mistreating its customers, and it does so because it believes it can get away with it.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“This will likely lead to more layoffs to keep up with the cost, as was the case with Meta, and then an eventual pullback when somebody asks “does any of this shit actually help us do our jobs faster or better?””
Our reading: If investors begin to question mounting R&D costs as revenue growth fails to follow, this will likely lead to more layoffs to keep up with the cost and then an eventual pullback.
No horizon
Only if: investors begin to question mounting R&D costs when revenue growth fails to follow
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“In reality, that 10-person, $1250-a-month Teams subscription likely burns anywhere from $5000 to $10,000 a month in API calls, if not more.”
Our reading: A 10-person $1,250-a-month Claude Teams subscription likely burns $5,000 to $10,000 or more a month in API-equivalent costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: 10-person team
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As a result, every AI data center starts millions of dollars in the hole, and even with six-year-long depreciation schedules, takes years to pay off… and with NVIDIA’s yearly upgrade cycle, those GPUs are unlikely to make that much money once you’re done with your first customer contract.”
Our reading: AI data centers take years to pay off, and their GPUs are unlikely to earn much after the first customer contract because of NVIDIA's yearly upgrade cycle.
No horizon
Qualifier: given NVIDIA's yearly upgrade cycle
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Generative AI is an insult. It is unreliable, its economics don’t make sense, its outcomes don’t justify its existence, and the perpetrators of its con are boring, oafish and avaricious men disconnected from society and anybody who would ever disagree with them.”
Our reading: Generative AI is an insult: it is unreliable, its economics don't make sense, its outcomes don't justify its existence, and the perpetrators of its con are boring, oafish and avaricious men disconnected from society.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I realize it seems a little much, but I genuinely believe that subscription-based AI services were an act of deception tantamount to fraud, as they misrepresented the core unit economics and thus the possibilities of a Large Language Model.”
Our reading: He genuinely believes subscription-based AI services were an act of deception tantamount to fraud, because they misrepresented the core unit economics and thus the possibilities of LLMs.
No horizon
Qualifier: I genuinely believe
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“In reality, that 10-person, $1250-a-month Teams subscription likely burns anywhere from $5000 to $10,000 a month in API calls, if not more.”
Our reading: A 10-person $1,250/month Claude Teams subscription likely burns $5,000–$10,000 or more a month in API-equivalent costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: 10-person team
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As a result, every AI data center starts millions of dollars in the hole, and even with six-year-long depreciation schedules, takes years to pay off… and with NVIDIA’s yearly upgrade cycle, those GPUs are unlikely to make that much money once you’re done with your first customer contract.”
Our reading: AI data centers take years to pay off, and their GPUs are unlikely to earn much after the first customer contract due to NVIDIA's yearly upgrade cycle.
No horizon
Qualifier: NVIDIA's yearly upgrade cycle
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Generative AI is an insult. It is unreliable, its economics don’t make sense, its outcomes don’t justify its existence, and the perpetrators of its con are boring, oafish and avaricious men disconnected from society and anybody who would ever disagree with them.”
Our reading: Generative AI is an insult: it is unreliable, its economics don't make sense, its outcomes don't justify its existence, and the perpetrators of its con are boring, oafish and avaricious men disconnected from society.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“While this might be possible within the slush fund mindset of a well-funded startup or a banana republic like Meta, any business that actually cares about its costs will have a great deal of trouble justifying spending five or six figures in extra costs on a service that “increases productivity” in a way that nobody can seem to measure.”
Our reading: Any business that actually cares about its costs will have a great deal of trouble justifying five or six figures in extra costs on a service whose claimed productivity increase nobody can seem to measure, though this might be possible for well-funded startups or companies like Meta.
No horizon
Scope: any business that actually cares about its costs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Had users been forced to pay their actual rates, I imagine many would’ve bounced off the product immediately, as it’s very, very easy to burn through $5 of tokens if you’re fucking around and exploring what an LLM can do.”
Our reading: If users had paid actual token costs, many likely would have abandoned AI products immediately.
No horizon
Qualifier: had users paid actual rates
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“The real thing to look out for — a true pale horse — will be a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moving all of its subscribers to token-based billing. Once that happens, you’ll know it’s closing time.”
Our reading: If a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moves all of its subscribers to token-based billing, that will be a 'true pale horse' signalling that it is 'closing time'.
No horizon
Only if: a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moves all of its subscribers to token-based billing
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“And once everybody switches to token-based billing, I’m not sure we’ll see quite as much hype around generative AI.”
Our reading: Once token-based billing becomes universal, hype around generative AI may diminish.
No horizon
Only if: everybody switches to token-based billing
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“The real thing to look out for — a true pale horse — will be a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moving all of its subscribers to token-based billing. Once that happens, you’ll know it’s closing time.”
Our reading: If a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moves all of its subscribers to token-based billing, that will be a true pale horse and you will know it is closing time.
No horizon
Only if: if a major AI lab like Anthropic or OpenAI moves all of its subscribers to token-based billing
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“AI is a con, and this is how the con works.”
Our reading: The AI industry is a con.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“And once everybody switches to token-based billing, I’m not sure we’ll see quite as much hype around generative AI.”
Our reading: Once everyone switches to token-based billing, hype around generative AI may decline.
No horizon
Only if: once everybody switches to token-based billing
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Sidenote: In fact, you can burn a great deal of money without ever getting the outcome you desire, because LLMs aren’t really artificial intelligence at all!”
Our reading: You can burn a great deal of money without ever getting the outcome you want, because LLMs are not really artificial intelligence at all.
No horizon
Source: AI's Economics Don't Make Sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I imagine OpenAI's answer would be "we're going to be serving these customers ads" and "some of them will pay $8 a month," neither of which are substantive.”
Our reading: The answers he imagines OpenAI giving, that it will serve ChatGPT Go customers ads and that some of them will pay $8 a month, are not substantive responses to the revenue shortfall.
No horizon
Qualifier: I imagine OpenAI's answer would be
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“I should also add that adding 109 million new subscribers at any price point will likely massively increase OpenAI's burn-rate.”
Our reading: If OpenAI adds 109 million new subscribers at any price, its burn rate will likely rise massively.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI adds 109 million new subscribers
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“AI agents are wildly premature technology that is being rolled out way too fast.”
Our reading: AI agents are wildly premature technology that is being rolled out way too fast.
No horizon
Source: Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In the hands of very skilled practitioners who pay a lot of attention, and treat the outputs with considerable scrutiny, coding agents can be astonishing. But that kind of expert knowledge, which coding agents can’t be counted on for, is exactly why we need to keep software engineers in the loop.”
Our reading: Because coding agents can't be counted on for expert knowledge, software engineers need to be kept in the loop.
No horizon
Qualifier: coding agents can't be counted on for expert knowledge
Source: Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Such a total failure was, of course, totally predictable (as I noted on X in a tweet with around 2 million views), and unsurprising in a system that mimics data without truly understanding what was asked of it.”
Our reading: The viral vibe-coding data-loss failure was predictable because the system mimics data without truly understanding what was asked.
No horizon
Source: Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Maintainability is yet another serious issue beyond the recurring issues of data loss, privacy leaks, and security breaches. In the long run, it may be the most serious.”
Our reading: Maintainability of AI-generated code is a serious issue and may in the long run be the most serious one.
No horizon
Qualifier: in the long run
Source: Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“AI coding tools are genuinely revolutionizing the software industry, but more than almost anything I have ever seen, they fall into the category of things you maybe shouldn’t try at home without significant prior experience:”
Our reading: People maybe shouldn't use AI coding tools without significant prior experience.
No horizon
Qualifier: without significant prior experience
Source: Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“𝗪𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝗶𝘀 *𝗲𝘅𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗹𝘆* 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘄𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀.”
Our reading: We should not trust coding agents.
No horizon
Source: Dario Amodei, hype, AI safety, and the explosion of vibe-coded AI disasters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“There seems to be some excitement around “ChatGPT’s powerful new image engine”, but as ever, its functional understanding of the world seems limited.”
Our reading: ChatGPT's new image engine appears to have limited functional understanding of the world.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The system doesn’t actually understand how the various parts function.”
Our reading: ChatGPT's new image engine does not actually understand how the parts of a bike function.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“As in the first example, the lack of functional understanding is manifest.”
Our reading: ChatGPT's new image engine's tall tandem bike image clearly shows a lack of functional understanding.
No horizon
Qualifier: tall tandem bike with rack and panniers prompt
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“(An expert doctor might use the LLM to better effect, by asking the right questions.)”
Our reading: An expert doctor might use an LLM to better effect than lay users by asking the right questions.
No horizon
Qualifier: by asking the right questions
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“There will always be better models, but for now, and until proven otherwise, we should not take the apparent “confidence” of large language models — itself an illusion of how they are trained — to mean that we should trust large language with our lives.”
Our reading: For now and until proven otherwise, people should not take LLMs' apparent confidence as reason to trust them with their lives.
No horizon
Qualifier: for now
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“A flat 10% bump on the cost of software engineering is the direct opposite of what AI was meant to do, and in the event that costs continue to rise, I’m not sure how anybody justifies the expense much further.”
Our reading: A flat 10% increase in software engineering costs is the direct opposite of what AI was meant to do, and if costs continue to rise he is not sure how anybody justifies the expense much further.
No horizon
Only if: in the event that costs continue to rise
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“But every sign points to me being right, and if I’m right at the scale I think I’m right, I think we’re about to have a legitimacy crisis in investing and mainstream media, because regular people are keenly aware that something isn’t right, in many cases, it’s because they’re able to count.”
Our reading: If he is right at the scale he thinks he is, he thinks investing and mainstream media are about to have a legitimacy crisis, because regular people are keenly aware that something isn't right.
No horizon
Only if: if I'm right at the scale I think I'm right
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s start with a fairly direct statement: Anthropic should stop taking on new customers until it works out its capacity issues.”
Our reading: Anthropic should stop accepting new customers until it resolves its capacity issues.
No horizon
Qualifier: until it resolves its capacity issues
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“We’re likely hitting the absolute physical limits of available AI compute capacity, if we haven’t already done so”
Our reading: The AI industry is likely hitting, or has already hit, the physical limits of available AI compute capacity.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Though my arguments might be verbose, they’re ultimately pretty simple: AI does not provide even an iota of the benefits — economic or otherwise — to justify its ruinous costs.”
Our reading: AI does not provide even an iota of the benefits, economic or otherwise, that would justify its ruinous costs.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Though Microsoft is yet to formally announce the move to Token-Based Billing, I imagine it’ll be sometime this week that it rips off the bandage.”
Our reading: Microsoft will probably formally announce token-based billing for GitHub Copilot this week.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“These deals shouldn’t be legal.”
Our reading: Deals like Anthropic's agreement to spend $100 billion on AWS as part of Amazon's investment in it should not be legal.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“I’ve literally never seen a company do this outside of products it intended to kill entirely, and that’s likely because — per my source — it intends to move paid customers over to token-based-billing”
Our reading: Microsoft's halt to new paid GitHub Copilot signups is likely because, per his source, it intends to move paid customers to token-based billing.
No horizon
Qualifier: per my source
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Anthropic is a con, and said con is only made possible through endless, specious hype.”
Our reading: Anthropic is a con sustained by hype.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Companies did this to grow their subscriber numbers, and I think they assumed things would get cheaper somehow.”
Our reading: AI companies subsidized subscriptions to grow their subscriber numbers, and he thinks they assumed things would somehow get cheaper.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Cursor is also reportedly at $6 billion in annualized revenue (or around $500 million a month) and “gross margin positive” — which I also doubt given that it had to raise over $3 billion last year and is apparently raising another $2 billion this year.”
Our reading: Cursor is probably not gross margin positive as reported.
No horizon
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“If, in fact, NVIDIA is actually selling as many GPUs as it says, it’s likely taking liberties with “transfers of ownership” where NVIDIA marks a product as “sold” to somebody that has yet to actually take it on.”
Our reading: If NVIDIA is selling as many GPUs as it claims, it is likely booking sales before customers actually take delivery.
No horizon
Qualifier: if NVIDIA is selling as many GPUs as it says
Source: Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“This suggests that changes are to come for all subscription tiers, as he also added that Claude's Max plan was released before Claude Code and Claude Cowork, and "...designed for heavy chat usage, that's it."”
Our reading: Avasare's statements suggest Anthropic will likely change all of its subscription tiers, including Max.
No horizon
Qualifier: based on Avasare's statements that current plans weren't built for this usage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“This is likely another cost-cutting move that follows a recent change (per The Information) that forced enterprise users to pay on a per-million-token based rate rather than having rate limits that were, based on researchers' findings, often much higher than the cost of the subscription.”
Our reading: Anthropic's apparent removal of Claude Code from its $20-a-month Pro accounts is likely another cost-cutting move, coming after a recent change (reported by The Information) that made enterprise users pay per-million-token rates instead of having rate limits that, according to researchers, were often worth much more than the subscription cost.
No horizon
Qualifier: Anthropic 'appears to have' removed access
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Users were, instead of paying on a per-million-token basis, allowed to use their subscription to access Claude Code, but will likely now have to pay for API access.”
Our reading: Pro users who used Claude Code through their subscription will likely now have to pay for API access to use it.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The party appears to be ending for subsidized AI products, with Microsoft’s upcoming move following Anthropic’s (per The Information) recent changes shifting enterprise users to token-based billing as a means of reducing its costs.”
Our reading: The era of subsidized AI products appears to be ending, with Microsoft's upcoming move to token-based billing following Anthropic's recent changes, reported by The Information, that shift Anthropic's enterprise users to token-based billing to reduce its costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: appears to be ending
Source: Exclusive: Microsoft To Shift GitHub Copilot Users To Token-Based Billing, Tighten Rate Limits
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“The move towards Opus 4.7 will likely see GitHub Copilot Pro+ users reach their usage limits faster.”
Our reading: The switch to Claude Opus 4.7 will likely make GitHub Copilot Pro+ users hit their usage limits faster.
No horizon
Qualifier: Microsoft transitions Pro+ to Opus 4.7
Source: Exclusive: Microsoft To Shift GitHub Copilot Users To Token-Based Billing, Tighten Rate Limits
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Maybe I spoke too soon.”
Our reading: Marcus may have spoken too soon in saying that the Oracle stock spike would be seen as the peak of absurdity, because a new example has now appeared.
No horizon
Source: Peak absurdity, Part II
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Mr. Amodei should immediately cease any and all discussions of AI potentially or otherwise eliminating 50% of white collar jobs, as Mr. Altman should cease predicting when Superintelligence might arrive, as Mr. Amodei should actively reject and denounce any suggestions of AI “creating a white collar bloodbath.””
Our reading: Amodei should stop discussing AI eliminating 50% of white-collar jobs and Altman should stop predicting superintelligence timelines.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Stop talking about AGI. Start talking about this like regular old software, because that’s all that ChatGPT is.”
Our reading: AI executives should stop talking about AGI and describe ChatGPT as the regular software it is.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“I just think that they would be used dramatically less if there weren’t an industrial-scale publicity campaign run through the media and the majority of corporate America both incentivizing and forcing them to do so.”
Our reading: Developer use of LLMs would be dramatically lower without the media publicity campaign and corporate pressure.
No horizon
Qualifier: absent media and corporate pressure
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“In fact, the ethical thing to do would’ve been to charge for and restrict the services in line with their actual costs so that users could have reliable and consistent access to the services in question.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI should have priced and restricted services in line with actual costs.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Right now, I’d guess that OpenAI has access to around 2GW of capacity (as of the end of 2025), and Anthropic around 1GW based on discussions with sources.”
Our reading: The author guesses OpenAI had about 2GW of capacity at end of 2025 and Anthropic about 1GW.
No horizon
Qualifier: author's guess based on sources
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“LLMs are excellent digital busyboxes for those who want to come up with a way to work differently rather than actually doing work.”
Our reading: LLMs are excellent digital busyboxes for people who want to come up with a way to work differently rather than actually doing work.
No horizon
Scope: for those who want to come up with a way to work differently rather than actually doing work
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I imagine that at some point enterprise customers will be able to pay for an even higher priority tier, and that Anthropic’s “Teams” subscription (which allows you to use the same subsidized subscriptions as everyone else) will be killed off, forcing anyone in an organization paying for Claude Code (and eventually Codex) via the API, as has already happened for Anthropic’s enterprise users.”
Our reading: The author imagines that at some point enterprise customers will be able to pay for an even higher priority tier, and that Anthropic's Teams subscription will be killed off, forcing organizations paying for Claude Code (and eventually Codex) onto the API, as already happened for Anthropic's enterprise users.
No horizon
Qualifier: I imagine
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Anyone you read talking about how LLMs “allowed them to look through a massive dataset” is likely using Python.”
Our reading: People who credit LLMs with letting them analyze massive datasets are likely really using Python.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“They should have to show you how much work it took to prepare the system, and why it’s superior to just doing it themselves.”
Our reading: People claiming others are being left behind by AI should have to show the setup effort required and why AI beats doing it themselves.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“In any case, no previous real or imagined tech revolution has ever inspired such eager defensiveness, tribalism or outright aggression toward dissenters, nor such ridiculous attempts to obfuscate the truth about a product outside of cryptocurrency, an industry with obvious corruption and financial incentives.”
Our reading: Apart from crypto, no previous tech revolution inspired such defensiveness, tribalism and obfuscation as AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: except cryptocurrency
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“These are acts of violence that could have been stopped had ChatGPT and similar applications not been anthropomorphized by design, and trained to be “friendly.””
Our reading: The acts of violence by people twisted by LLMs into taking their own and others' lives could have been stopped had ChatGPT and similar applications not been anthropomorphized by design and trained to be 'friendly'.
No horizon
Qualifier: had ChatGPT and similar applications not been anthropomorphized by design and trained to be 'friendly'
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Both Altman and Amodei engage in the language of AI doomerism as a means of generating attention, revenue and investment capital, actively selling their software and future investment potential based on their ownership of a technology that they say (disingenuously) is potentially going to take everybody’s jobs.”
Our reading: Altman and Amodei both use the language of AI doomerism to generate attention, revenue and investment capital, selling their software and future investment potential on a technology they disingenuously say may take everybody's jobs.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“They do not think, they do not have knowledge, they are conjuring up their own training data (or reflecting post-training instructions from those developing them or documents instructing them to act a certain way), and any time you try and make them do something more-complicated, they begin to fall apart, and/or become exponentially more-expensive.”
Our reading: LLMs do not think or have knowledge, and they fall apart or become exponentially more expensive on more complicated tasks.
No horizon
Qualifier: on more complicated tasks
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Both he and Mr. Amodei need to immediately stop overstating the capabilities of Large Language Models.”
Our reading: Altman and Amodei must immediately stop overstating LLM capabilities.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Large Language Models perform an impression of automating that process, but for the most part force you, the user, to do the shit that matters, even if that means “be responsible for the code that it puts out.””
Our reading: LLMs perform an impression of automating the process of building software, but for the most part force the user to do the things that matter, even if that only means being responsible for the code they put out.
No horizon
Qualifier: for the most part
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Similarly, I’m not sure anybody would’ve been anywhere near as excited if OpenAI and Anthropic hadn’t intentionally sold them a product that was impossible to support long-term.”
Our reading: The author is not sure anybody would have been anywhere near as excited about LLMs if OpenAI and Anthropic had not intentionally sold them a product that was impossible to support long-term.
No horizon
Qualifier: I'm not sure
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This also suggests that Anthropic’s (and OpenAI’s by extension) business model is fundamentally flawed.”
Our reading: Anthropic's inability to serve its paying customers at its current infrastructure scale, while still burning money, suggests that Anthropic's business model, and by extension OpenAI's, is fundamentally flawed.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“LLMs are not “artificial intelligence” at all.”
Our reading: LLMs are not artificial intelligence.
No horizon
Source: I Will Never Respect A Website
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Even if Mythos was somewhat oversold in the media, the time to get our cybersecurity house in order is now (or better yet last year) — especially given the sudden profusion of agent-written code that may in fact be both weakly defended and vulnerable.”
Our reading: Cybersecurity should be shored up immediately in response to AI attack capabilities, especially given the surge in agent-written code.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if Mythos was oversold
Source: Claude Mythos, evaluated
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In reality, the replies to the Apple reasoning paper were weak sauce (see also this).”
Our reading: The replies to the Apple reasoning paper were weak.
No horizon
Source: Even more good news for the future of neurosymbolic AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But there is more and more reason to think that neurosymbolic AI is a stronger starting point, with potential for better generalization and more efficient performance.”
Our reading: Evidence increasingly suggests neurosymbolic AI is a stronger starting point than pure LLMs, with potential for better generalization and efficiency.
No horizon
Qualifier: compared with LLMs
Source: Even more good news for the future of neurosymbolic AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“As a society we could spend another trillion dollars pursue LLMs, or a trillion dollars seeking new, hybrid approaches. I for one know which I would pick.”
Our reading: Given a choice between spending another trillion dollars on LLMs or a trillion dollars on new hybrid approaches, Marcus says he knows which he would pick, implicitly the hybrid approaches.
No horizon
Qualifier: stated as personal preference between hypothetical investments
Source: Even more good news for the future of neurosymbolic AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“The paradigm has changed.”
Our reading: The paradigm (in AI) has changed.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Meanwhile, the implications for the allocation of capital are pretty massive: smartly adding in bits of symbolic AI can do a lot more than scaling alone, and even Anthropic has now discovered (though they haven’t acknowledged publicly) scaling is no longer the essence of innovation.”
Our reading: Smartly adding in bits of symbolic AI can do a lot more than scaling alone, Anthropic has discovered (without acknowledging it publicly) that scaling is no longer the essence of innovation, and the implications for capital allocation are pretty massive.
No horizon
Qualifier: smartly adding in bits of symbolic AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“What we really need to do to get trustworthy AI rather than the current unpredictable “jagged” mess, is to go in the knowledge-, reasoning-, and world-model driven direction I laid out in 2020, in an article called The Next Decade in AI, in which neurosymbolic AI is just the *starting point* in a longer journey.”
Our reading: To get trustworthy AI, the field should pursue knowledge-, reasoning- and world-model driven approaches beyond neurosymbolic AI, as current AI is an unpredictable jagged mess.
No horizon
Qualifier: to get trustworthy AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But Anthropic figured out that if you really need to get your patterns right, you can’t trust a pure LLM. They are too probabilistic. And too erratic.”
Our reading: Pure LLMs are too probabilistic and erratic to be trusted when patterns must be gotten right, as Anthropic recognized.
No horizon
Qualifier: if you really need to get your patterns right
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The demo was definitely proof of concept that we need to get our regulatory and technical house in order, but not the immediate threat the media and public was lead to believe.”
Our reading: The Mythos demo shows we need to get our regulatory and technical house in order.
No horizon
Source: Three reasons to think that the Claude Mythos announcement from Anthropic was overblown
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Mythos is more sophisticated but perhaps not head-and-shoulders the way it was portrayed.”
Our reading: Mythos is more sophisticated than open-weight models but perhaps not as far ahead as it was portrayed.
No horizon
Source: Three reasons to think that the Claude Mythos announcement from Anthropic was overblown
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“To a certain degree, I feel that we were played.”
Our reading: Marcus feels that, to a certain degree, we were played by the Mythos announcement.
No horizon
Qualifier: I feel
Source: Three reasons to think that the Claude Mythos announcement from Anthropic was overblown
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But some of their competitors (such as OpenAI and xAI) might well not.”
Our reading: Competitors such as OpenAI and xAI might well not show restraint and could publicly release potentially dangerous technology.
No horizon
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“It’s probably not as bad as they say, as AI and cybersecurity expert Heidy Khlaaf explains in this thread, which I highly recommend:”
Our reading: Mythos's cybersecurity danger is probably not as bad as claimed.
No horizon
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“It probably isn’t; it’s telling that the report says very little about overall capabilities.”
Our reading: Mythos is probably not AGI, as suggested by the report saying little about overall capabilities.
No horizon
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Whether Mythos is as scary as it sounds or not, the reality is that without any government oversight on what can be released, we are entirely at the mercy of individual CEOs, some of whom have decidedly not earned our trust.”
Our reading: Without government oversight of AI releases, the public is entirely at the mercy of individual AI CEOs, some of whom have not earned trust.
No horizon
Qualifier: without government oversight on releases
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Mythos may wreak havoc even if it hallucinates and lacks reliability outside of domains like coding and math.”
Our reading: Mythos may wreak havoc even if it hallucinates and is unreliable outside domains like coding and math.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if it hallucinates and lacks reliability outside coding and math
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We need an international agency and treaty.”
Our reading: An international AI agency and treaty are needed.
No horizon
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Self-regulation is too little, too late.”
Our reading: Self-regulation (of AI companies) is too little, too late.
No horizon
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Anthropic showed some admirable restraint in not publicly releasing a potentially dangerous technology.”
Our reading: Anthropic showed some admirable restraint in not publicly releasing a potentially dangerous technology (Mythos).
No horizon
Qualifier: some admirable restraint
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“I can’t tell exactly how far Mythos (or similar competitive systems that will no doubt follow) leave us up that creek, but I do know that the time for crafting paddles is running out.”
Our reading: Time to build safeguards and regulation against AI risks is running out.
No horizon
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“The situation is this: three years of self-serving and misleading arguments about how regulation would allegedly preclude innovation has left us up shit’s creek, without a paddle.”
Our reading: Three years of self-serving and misleading arguments that regulation would allegedly preclude innovation have left us in a bad predicament ('up shit's creek, without a paddle').
No horizon
Scope: three years of arguments
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“1Anthropic also announced a big consortium, partly supported by their financial support, to work on cybersecurity, which is likely a good thing, though one that should work in conjunction with law enforcement and regulation.”
Our reading: Anthropic's cybersecurity consortium is likely a good thing but should work in conjunction with law enforcement and regulation.
No horizon
Source: What should we take from Anthropic’s (possibly) terrifying new report on Mythos?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Having two sets of earnings is extremely dodgy! Especially when the difference between them is billions of dollars.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic showing investors two sets of earnings, with and without training costs, is extremely dodgy, especially when the difference between them is billions of dollars.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially when the difference is billions of dollars
Source: AI Is Really Weird
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“In any case, TokenMaxxing is not real demand, but an economic form of AI psychosis.”
Our reading: TokenMaxxing is not real demand for AI.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Really Weird