Claims that can’t be checked, page 6 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 6 of 37: claims 501 to 600 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“In the light, it is hard to see how all the massive data center investments will pay off, with price wars dropping token prices to near zero; the meagre profits are unlikely ever to justify the massive outlays.”
Our reading: Massive AI data center investments are unlikely ever to pay off because price wars are driving token prices toward zero, leaving meagre profits.
No horizon
Qualifier: price wars dropping token prices to near zero
Source: China catches up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Maybe, for example, instead of racing to sell the cheapest LLMs, a battle we are unlikely to win, we should be focusing on cultivating new forms of AI that are better suited for science and medicine.”
Our reading: The U.S. is unlikely to win a race with China to sell the cheapest LLMs.
No horizon
Qualifier: competing with China
Source: China catches up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Maybe, for example, instead of racing to sell the cheapest LLMs, a battle we are unlikely to win, we should be focusing on cultivating new forms of AI that are better suited for science and medicine.”
Our reading: The U.S. should perhaps focus on developing new forms of AI suited to science and medicine rather than racing to sell the cheapest LLMs.
No horizon
Qualifier: instead of racing to sell the cheapest LLMs
Source: China catches up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The combination of high operating costs, unreliability, and small margins is not a winning formula—and certainly not one that we should be structuring our entire economy around.”
Our reading: The combination of high operating costs, unreliability, and small margins is not a winning formula, and certainly not one that we should be structuring our entire economy around.
No horizon
Source: China catches up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“However you slice it, the delay reflects a lack of confidence.”
Our reading: OpenAI's IPO delay reflects a lack of confidence.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“We are perhaps already seeing evidence for that”
Our reading: There is perhaps already evidence that OpenAI's troubles are hurting companies it does business with.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Even Polymarket sees it now; the game has changed:”
Our reading: The game has changed, and even Polymarket now sees it.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I will not be surprised if their IPO plans fall apart, too”
Our reading: OpenAI's IPO plans may fall apart, as WeWork's did.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If the argument I laid out there is remotely correct, hyperscaling could prove to be among the biggest financial blunders in history.”
Our reading: If his FT argument is even remotely correct, hyperscaling could prove to be among the biggest financial blunders in history.
No horizon
Only if: if his FT argument is remotely correct
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“None of this bodes well for the US AI industry.”
Our reading: Recent developments (IPO delay, stock declines, policy chaos, Chinese competition, commoditization) bode poorly for the US AI industry.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“And, again, the WSJ prediction of a positive quarter that Smith pointed to was speculation; it’s not at all clear that it will actually come to pass, given all that happened since then.”
Our reading: It is not at all clear that Anthropic will actually report the profitable quarter WSJ predicted.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Yesterday a new Chinese, open-source model came out that might make all of this drastically worse for the US LLM companies:”
Our reading: A new Chinese open-source model might make commoditization, price wars and elusive profits drastically worse for US LLM companies.
No horizon
Qualifier: due to new Chinese open-source model
Source: The Generative AI Fizzle™
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“They might, but maybe what we will see is more like a slow decline, as investors lose enthusiasm for the ratio between hype (insane) and profits (not that impressive thus far).”
Our reading: AI valuations may decline slowly rather than all at once, as investors lose enthusiasm given insane hype relative to unimpressive profits.
No horizon
Qualifier: as investors lose enthusiasm for the hype-to-profit ratio
Source: The Generative AI Fizzle™
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If GenAI-mania does fall apart, slowly or suddenly, it’s a big deal, especially given the growing amount of debt.”
Our reading: If generative AI mania falls apart, slowly or suddenly, it will be a big deal, especially given growing debt.
No horizon
Only if: if GenAI-mania falls apart, slowly or suddenly
Source: The Generative AI Fizzle™
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“To be sure I don’t expect LLMs to disappear anytime soon but the valuations and market caps we are currently seeing may eventually be seen as ludicrous.”
Our reading: Current AI valuations and market caps may eventually be seen as ludicrous.
No horizon
Source: The Generative AI Fizzle™
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI are actually startups.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic are not actually startups.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“AI boosters are no longer allowed to speak in the future-tense, nor are they allowed to justify AI’s losses based on previous eras.”
Our reading: AI boosters should not justify AI with future-tense promises or by comparing its losses to previous eras.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“OpenAI, Anthropic and every AI startup could disappear tomorrow and the world’s financial systems would continue unabated, other than the brutal hit to the stock market and screeching of venture capitalists.”
Our reading: If OpenAI, Anthropic and every AI startup disappeared tomorrow, the world's financial systems would continue unabated, apart from a brutal hit to the stock market and the screeching of venture capitalists.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI, Anthropic and every AI startup disappeared tomorrow
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I challenge everybody reading this to start living in the present, and to stop taking excuses for the mediocrity of AI.”
Our reading: People should stop accepting excuses for AI's mediocrity and judge it on the present.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Put another way, the tech industry has become the largest cargo cult of all time.”
Our reading: The tech industry has become the largest cargo cult of all time.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Unless OpenAI is one of the single largest accounts in digital advertising, I think it’s far more likely that there are actual costs being hidden.”
Our reading: Unless OpenAI is among the largest digital advertisers, it is far more likely that real costs are hidden in its sales and marketing line.
No horizon
Qualifier: unless OpenAI is one of the largest digital advertising accounts
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“It’s simple: the tech industry has completely run out of ideas, and all that’s left is a cargo cult that hasn’t had a human experience since 2015.”
Our reading: The tech industry has completely run out of ideas and is now a cargo cult.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest none of these guys actually contributed very much in their most-recent tenures, and that their hiring and positions were further cargo cult moves.”
Our reading: Shazeer, Karpathy, and Zoph probably contributed little in their most recent tenures at AI labs, and their hiring was cargo cult behavior.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“And however you feel about AI, you should demand better proof of its inevitability than a bunch of mythology, hype, and cargo cult bullshit.”
Our reading: People should demand better proof of AI's inevitability than mythology and hype.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“AI is the natural endpoint of the Valley’s cargo culture — money-hungry models that can vaguely resemble something that might grow into the future, with opportunities to deploy capital that resemble previous infrastructure movements, all with convenient ways to explain away dissent that mostly boil down to “bad thing happen before but then good thing happen after.””
Our reading: AI is the natural endpoint of Silicon Valley's cargo culture.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“The use of annualized revenues (the single-most easily manipulated metric in Valley history) as a means of promoting growth only exists as a means of spreading the symbology of hypergrowth, all while deliberately obfuscating the actual financial health of the company”
Our reading: In the AI bubble, annualized revenue is used only to spread the symbolism of hypergrowth while deliberately obscuring companies' actual financial health by extrapolating an annual figure from a single monthly or weekly snapshot, which is especially egregious because it includes non-recurring charges like spending via Anthropic's API.
No horizon
Scope: the economics of the AI bubble
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Why does anybody think LLMs are going to change anything? Because everybody vaguely came to the consensus that ChatGPT was trending in the direction that something would change.”
Our reading: People think LLMs are going to change things because everybody vaguely came to the consensus that ChatGPT was trending in the direction that something would change.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Perhaps they’re lucky enough to have businesses that effectively run themselves, or monopolies that can survive having 98% of their free cash flow spent on AI data centers that only lose money, or are smart enough to stay out of the way of the people who actually do work.”
Our reading: Perhaps some company leaders run monopolies that can survive spending 98% of their free cash flow on AI data centers, which he says only lose money.
No horizon
Qualifier: perhaps (one of several alternatives offered)
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta sunk what will soon be over a trillion dollars into AI data centers because they don’t have any other ideas, and because the only thing that the MBA’d elites running the tech industry can do is hire people, fire people and spend money.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta have sunk what will soon be over a trillion dollars into AI data centers because they have no other ideas and because the MBA'd elites running the tech industry can only hire people, fire people and spend money.
No horizon
Scope: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“It can’t magic up $2 trillion in revenue by 2030 for an industry that basically doesn’t exist without OpenAI or Anthropic.”
Our reading: Faith alone cannot produce $2 trillion in AI revenue by 2030 for an industry that basically does not exist without OpenAI or Anthropic.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“If you’re an AI booster yourself, know that the AI companies treat you with complete contempt.”
Our reading: AI companies treat AI boosters with complete contempt.
No horizon
Source: Cargo Culture
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“if enough other big customers are similarly disappointed, the whole jig will be up.”
Our reading: If enough other big customers are disappointed with their AI returns the way Accenture was, "the whole jig" (an unspecified current AI arrangement) will be up.
No horizon
Only if: if enough other big customers are similarly disappointed
Source: Accenture: Then and now, and how it may signify things to come
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Either we curtail LLMs until we find a better technology, or we live with consequences.”
Our reading: Society must either restrict LLMs until a better technology is found or accept the consequences of their unsafe guardrails.
No horizon
Qualifier: until a better technology is found
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Next-token predictors simply aren‘t built for safety.”
Our reading: Next-token predictors (LLMs) simply aren't built for safety.
No horizon
Scope: next-token predictors
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“To be sure, Washington might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, rescuing Josh Kushner’s investment in OpenAI:”
Our reading: The US government might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, which would protect Josh Kushner's investment in OpenAI.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“We believe this most likely refers to the cost of training OpenAI’s models.”
Our reading: OpenAI's $10.59 billion R&D payment to Microsoft in 2025 most likely reflects the cost of training OpenAI's models.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Losses also appear to be mounting year-over-year at a dramatic rate, and I’m not sure how this company finds a way toward any kind of sustainability or profitability.”
Our reading: The author doubts that OpenAI can find a path to sustainability or profitability.
No horizon
Source: Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Some are attempting to read this story as bullish for Anthropic — that the government will work with it to bring the models back online, creating a proxy marketing campaign for its models — and while I think that’s possible, if not likely, I think there’re many other possibilities.”
Our reading: It is possible, if not likely, that the US government will work with Anthropic to bring its models back online, in effect creating a proxy marketing campaign for them, though there are many other possibilities.
No horizon
Qualifier: possible, if not likely
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“In fact, their costs appear to be increasing, which is why they’ve raised (assuming the rounds completely close) over $230 billion in the last six months.”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's costs appear to be increasing, which is why they have raised over $230 billion in the last six months, assuming the rounds completely close.
No horizon
Qualifier: assuming the rounds completely close
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“The outright mythology of Mythos existed to scare people and help Anthropic raise at a $965 billion valuation”
Our reading: Anthropic's Mythos marketing existed to scare people and help Anthropic raise money at a $965 billion valuation.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Amazon and Microsoft are far more scared of the White House than they are of killing their golden goose, and may honestly be relieved to find a reason to bring this era to an end.”
Our reading: Amazon and Microsoft fear the White House more than losing AI labs and may be relieved to end this era.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: I believe a large majority of AI token spend — and specifically Anthropic’s revenue growth — has come from Business Idiots disconnected from any real work that have become convinced that “lots of AI” would do something other than rack up massive bills.”
Our reading: He believes a large majority of AI token spend, and specifically Anthropic's revenue growth, has come from 'Business Idiots' disconnected from any real work who became convinced that 'lots of AI' would do something other than rack up massive bills.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“it’s becoming clear that token-based billing might genuinely not work as a viable business line.”
Our reading: Token-based billing may not work as a viable business line for AI labs.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“The fact that Anthropic and OpenAI have any business left after stories like these is proof that the vast majority of companies paying for these services are doing so because they feel pressured to by their peers, investors or the media.”
Our reading: That Anthropic and OpenAI have any business left after stories like these is proof that the vast majority of companies paying for their services do so because they feel pressured by peers, investors or the media.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I agree with anyone saying there should be a pause in the development of generative AI, but I do so based on the belief that this is a doomed grift and science experiment masquerading as an industry”
Our reading: There should be a pause in the development of generative AI, because it is a doomed grift masquerading as an industry.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The other problem is that this is terrible, terrible timing for an AI industry in the throes of a cost crisis. Anthropic and OpenAI’s IPOs depend on myth, hype, and certainty that their growth will never slow.”
Our reading: The AI industry is in a cost crisis, and Anthropic's and OpenAI's IPOs depend on hype and certainty of never-slowing growth.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“A 50% price cut doesn’t actually answer the question of “why am I paying so much for this,” and unless the price cuts are to DeepSeek levels (which would also be fatal), it’s hard to see how organizations are going to be won over.”
Our reading: A 50% price cut does not answer customers' question of why they are paying so much, and unless the price cuts go as low as DeepSeek levels, which would also be fatal, it is hard to see how organizations will be won over.
No horizon
Only if: unless the price cuts go as low as DeepSeek levels
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Fable is, of course, just another large language model that’s an indeterminate amount of “better” than the last one.”
Our reading: Anthropic's Fable is just another large language model only an indeterminate amount better than its predecessor.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“This means that there’s every chance this both cuts revenues and ends up with organizations using fewer tokens.”
Our reading: If the token price cuts happen, there is every chance they will both cut the AI labs' revenues and lead organizations to use fewer tokens.
No horizon
Only if: if the token price cuts happen
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“This isn’t a real business model because generative AI companies are not real businesses.”
Our reading: Generative AI companies are not real businesses.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Anthropic and OpenAI represent what I believe may be the last hypergrowth startups, and their collapse (however it may happen) will represent the end of the dream of founding a little company that turns into the next Google or Meta.”
Our reading: He believes Anthropic and OpenAI may be the last hypergrowth startups, and their collapse, however it happens, will represent the end of the dream of founding a little company that becomes the next Google or Meta.
No horizon
Qualifier: what I believe may be
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“It’s hard to see how everything goes back to normal from here. Even if Anthropic gets its models greenlit for availability, it’s clear the government has some animus against it after Q1’s battle with the Department of Defense”
Our reading: It is unlikely Anthropic's situation goes back to normal, since the government has animus against it even if its models are re-approved.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if Anthropic gets its models greenlit
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This, combined with Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman saying Anthropic’s models were too expensive and Andy Jassy likely being part of the reason that Anthropic got banned makes me think that hyperscalers might be trying to cast doubt on the inevitability of AI labs.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Amazon may be trying to cast doubt on the inevitability of AI labs.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“This obscene and wasteful subsidy is what you do when you have little to no confidence in the actual value of your product!”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's obscene and wasteful subscription subsidies are what a company does when it has little to no confidence in the actual value of its product.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Hell, let’s take it one step further: neither OpenAI nor Anthropic is a real business.”
Our reading: Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic is a real business.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I am still skeptical that this is a real shift away, if only because using open source models requires you to either work with an inference provider or run your own GPUs.”
Our reading: It is doubtful there is a real enterprise shift away from frontier models to open-source models.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“They do not have a plan.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic have no plan to become profitable.
No horizon
Source: AI's Brokenomics
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But they must do this transparently, and with fairness, and clarity, based on technical facts, and without the appearance of corruption.”
Our reading: Governments must block unsafe AI deployments transparently, fairly, clearly, based on technical facts and without appearance of corruption.
No horizon
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Moreover, because the construction of the order targeted foreigners — even eminent ones who have long lived and worked in the US such as Andrej Karpathy – it may lead to a massive brain drain.”
Our reading: Because the order targeted foreigners, it may cause a massive AI brain drain from the US.
No horizon
Qualifier: order targeted foreigners
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“It looks like they were looking for an excuse to screw Anthropic, and blind to the larger consequences.”
Our reading: The White House appears to have been looking for an excuse to harm Anthropic while ignoring larger consequences.
No horizon
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Effectively — and ironically — they have actually vindicated Amodei’s claim that some AI might need to be regulated and might require export controls.”
Our reading: By its action the White House has vindicated Amodei's claim that some AI might need regulation and export controls.
No horizon
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But it is the job of the US government to be the adult in the room, and to make decisions that are sound for the nation.”
Our reading: The US government should act as the adult in the room and make AI decisions that are sound for the nation.
No horizon
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“There was no real justification for the speed at which a decision with such lasting consequences was made.”
Our reading: There was no real justification for the speed at which the White House made a decision with such lasting consequences.
No horizon
Scope: a decision with such lasting consequences
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“It is a feast for Xi Jinping.”
Our reading: The White House decision is a big win for China.
No horizon
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“What the White House did seems arbitrary. And maybe even corrupt”
Our reading: The White House's Friday AI decision against Anthropic seems arbitrary and may even be corrupt.
No horizon
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“What Washington must do now is make those calls in a clear and transparent way, in a way that doesn’t reek of corruption.”
Our reading: What Washington must do now is make the calls about which AI models might be risky in a clear and transparent way that doesn't reek of corruption.
No horizon
Qualifier: now
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“An independent agency. Not last minute, opaque decisions made by a small cabal that hint at favoritism and corruption.”
Our reading: The US should govern AI deployments through an independent agency rather than opaque last-minute decisions by a small group.
No horizon
Source: What Washington must do
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I have my reservations about generative AI, but this is not the way.”
Our reading: Despite reservations about generative AI, the Commerce Department's directive suspending foreign-national access to Anthropic's models is the wrong way to handle AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: despite reservations about generative AI
Source: Breaking news: US Commerce Department effectively shuts down Anthropic’s latest models
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It was both bad policy and bad politics.”
Our reading: The Commerce Department's export control order was both bad policy and bad politics.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We need a stronger hand from the government in forcing companies to address those harms.”
Our reading: The US government should take a stronger hand in forcing AI companies to address chatbot harms.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I still believe, absolutely, that we cannot count on the AI industry to self-regulate, and that government must look—in a comprehensive way considering the full range of known risks—at new advances that are likely to be massively deployed models before they are released.”
Our reading: Government must comprehensively review, across all known risks, new AI models likely to be massively deployed before they are released.
No horizon
Qualifier: for new advances likely to be massively deployed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“What we need now is something I have not seen of the Trump administration: carefully considered nuance. Shoot first and ask questions later is not what we need right now.”
Our reading: The Trump administration should take a carefully considered, nuanced approach to AI policy rather than shooting first.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“States have no choice but to pick up the slack if they are to protect their citizens.”
Our reading: US states must step in on AI oversight if they are to protect their citizens.
No horizon
Qualifier: if they are to protect their citizens
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“More broadly, what we should all demand from our leaders is strong but measured AI oversight that is (a) bipartisan, (b) technically well-informed, and (c) calm and considered, proactive rather than reactive.”
Our reading: Leaders should provide strong but measured AI oversight that is bipartisan, technically well-informed, calm, and proactive rather than reactive.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Where is the US with respect to AI policy? It’s a mess.”
Our reading: US AI policy is a mess.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Now let’s consider last night’s Commerce Department cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face export control order, which has basically led to the (temporary?) shutdown of Fable and Mythos, perhaps sparking a crisis in the US AI industry.”
Our reading: The Commerce Department export control order may spark a crisis in the US AI industry.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Whatever you might think about Mythos or Fable or AI in general, what was just identified was not new and likely not specific to Mythos or Fable and in any case should not have been addressed in such a hasty, arbitrary way, with such little attention to downstream consequences.”
Our reading: What was just identified about Fable should not have been addressed in such a hasty, arbitrary way, with such little attention to downstream consequences.
No horizon
Qualifier: in any case
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Instead, let’s talk Section 230 — and why it might not protect AI companies as muuch as they might like..”
Our reading: Section 230 may not protect AI companies from liability as much as they would like.
No horizon
Qualifier: under Section 230
Source: Maybe Section 230 doesn’t shield AI companies from liability, after all
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I wish them luck — lots of it.”
Our reading: Marcus wishes the bipartisan sponsors of the bill to sunset Section 230 a great deal of luck, expressing his hope that it succeeds.
No horizon
Source: Maybe Section 230 doesn’t shield AI companies from liability, after all
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“It might actually force the tech industry to get its act together, to try to find a sounder foundation for AI, in which hallucinations weren’t baked in.”
Our reading: If AI companies were held liable for their systems' output, it might force the industry to seek a sounder AI foundation without baked-in hallucinations.
No horizon
Only if: if AI companies were held liable for their systems' output
Source: Maybe Section 230 doesn’t shield AI companies from liability, after all
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Sorry to bother your mailbox again but this legal decision is potentially huge, especially if it spreads and other countries make similar decisions.”
Our reading: The legal decision holding Google liable for hallucinations is potentially huge, especially if it spreads and other countries make similar decisions.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially if it spreads and other countries make similar decisions
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Coupled with my newsletter from earlier today on SoftBank and OpenAI (which is seeming more relevant by the minute) and another day on Wall Street like this, it looking like it could be a tough week for generative AI.”
Our reading: Taken together with this legal decision, his earlier newsletter on SoftBank and OpenAI, and another day on Wall Street like this one, it looks like it could be a tough week for generative AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: coupled with my newsletter from earlier today on SoftBank and OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“There are others, but that that is the most likely scenario to me is that openAI at some point can’t really make ends meet.”
Our reading: The most likely scenario for the AI boom breaking is that OpenAI at some point can't make ends meet.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“That’s domino 2: we can infer that the banks don’t really think that OpenAI is worth its current valuation. They don’t want OpenAI stock as collateral.”
Our reading: Banks evidently do not think OpenAI is worth its current valuation and don't want its stock as collateral.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“So maybe domino 3 is this: OpenAI may well wind up as the WeWork of AI.”
Our reading: OpenAI may well end up as the WeWork of AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s pretty clear he should not be trusted.”
Our reading: It is pretty clear that Sam Altman should not be trusted.
No horizon
Qualifier: it's pretty clear
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I think it’s a low probability of the bet coming through, but it’s not zero.”
Our reading: The giant GenAI investment bet has a low but nonzero probability of paying off.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“That Wile E Coyote moment could turn out to be soon.”
Our reading: The moment when the AI boom collapses, as everyone realizes they got it wrong, could come soon.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Every bad sign is worse now. The big difference is that people are finally noticing.”
Our reading: Every warning sign about OpenAI is worse now than two years ago, and people are finally noticing.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: No evidence items were gathered, because there is no defined set of signs or measure to test against.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If the market gets squirrelly on OpenAI’s IPO, which after today seems like a real possibility, OpenAI might be forced to withdraw its IPO (Domino 3), or to cut their aspirations sharply.”
Our reading: If the market turns skittish on OpenAI's IPO (a real possibility), OpenAI might be forced to withdraw its IPO or sharply cut its aspirations.
No horizon
Only if: if the market gets squirrelly on OpenAI's IPO
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“they’re clearly afraid of anthropic.”
Our reading: OpenAI, in rushing its IPO ahead of Anthropic, is clearly afraid of Anthropic.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I tend to think that OpenAI is the one that goes down first.”
Our reading: OpenAI is likely the first major AI company to fail.
No horizon
Qualifier: among major AI companies
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“And the damage might affect the banking system, retirement plans and more (too many dominoes to count).”
Our reading: If OpenAI can't meet its obligations, the damage might spread to the banking system, retirement plans and more.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI can't meet its obligations
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“SoftBank took an immediate hit; dropping the ask reeks of desperation, and its a terrible vote of nonconfidence that the banks still said no:”
Our reading: SoftBank took an immediate hit, its reduced margin-loan ask reeks of desperation, and the banks still refusing it is a terrible vote of no confidence.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“now the entire world is worried about whether AI is a bubble. And rightly so.”
Our reading: The entire world (hyperbolically) is now worried about whether AI is a bubble, and rightly so.
No horizon
Qualifier: 'the entire world' is hyperbole
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Anthropic once again played the media like a fiddle. And so many folks ate it all up.”
Our reading: Anthropic once again played the media like a fiddle over Mythos, and so many people ate it all up.
No horizon
Qualifier: once again
Source: The revenge of Claude Mythos
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Anthropic has a chance of being profitable, but reaching 10x the IPO price would be amazing.”
Our reading: Anthropic has a chance of becoming profitable.
No horizon
Source: An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“AI is not profitable yet, and may never be.”
Our reading: AI may never become profitable.
No horizon
Source: An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“GenAI is a risky bet that could pay off, or it could well tank the economy.”
Our reading: Generative AI is a risky bet that could pay off or could well tank the economy.
No horizon
Source: An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“I have to think that anyone who buys the SpaceX IPO just isn’t that good at math. Or history.”
Our reading: Buying the SpaceX IPO reflects poor understanding of math or history.
No horizon
Source: An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane.