Claims that can’t be checked, page 24 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 24 of 37: claims 2301 to 2400 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But what you should really be watching for are the candidate’s comments on AI, which after all, is likely to change the world in coming years, affecting virtually every aspect of society, from employment to education to healthcare to national defense.”
Our reading: AI is likely to change the world in coming years, affecting virtually every aspect of society including employment, education, healthcare and national defense.
No horizon
Source: What will the candidates say about AI in tonight’s debate?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Justifications for their opposition were meagre, e.g.,”
Our reading: OpenAI's stated justifications for opposing SB-1047, such as its argument that frontier AI regulation should be set at the federal level rather than through state laws, were meagre.
No horizon
Source: Scoop: What former employees of OpenAI are worried about
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“When and if some future form of AI brings new threats, we will be screwed, our collective fates determined by a tiny number of individuals running a few companies, with almost no accountability.”
Our reading: When and if some future form of AI brings new threats, we will be screwed, with our collective fates determined by a tiny number of individuals running a few companies with almost no accountability.
No horizon
Only if: when and if some future form of AI brings new threats
Source: Scoop: What former employees of OpenAI are worried about
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“But he and I fully agree with his overall picture: if we don’t figure out the governance problem, internal and external, before the next big AI advance—whenever it may come—we could be in serious trouble.”
Our reading: If internal and external AI governance isn't solved before the next big AI advance, we could be in serious trouble.
No horizon
Only if: if internal and external governance is not solved before the next big AI advance
Source: Scoop: What former employees of OpenAI are worried about
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“With companies accountable to nothing, not even what they have said to Congress and the White House, self-regulation is never going to work.”
Our reading: With companies accountable to nothing, not even their statements to Congress and the White House, self-regulation is never going to work.
No horizon
Qualifier: companies accountable to nothing, not even what they have said to Congress and the White House
Source: Scoop: What former employees of OpenAI are worried about
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“There’s another problem with this bill too – it’s too narrow, focused mainly on catastrophic harm that causes over a half a billion dollars damaage, and does too little to address other issues, which I fear people may forget, once it is – or is not – passed.”
Our reading: SB-1047 is too narrow, focused mainly on catastrophic harm causing over half a billion dollars in damage, and does too little to address other issues, which Marcus fears people may forget once it is or is not passed.
No horizon
Qualifier: focused mainly on catastrophic harm over half a billion dollars
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“It’s not nothing, but companies worth billions or trillions of dollars may make mincemeat of that standard. Any legal action may take many years to conclude.”
Our reading: Very large companies may overwhelm SB-1047's reasonable care standard, and legal actions under it may take many years.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We absolutely need a comprehensive approach, and SB 1047 is just a start. And we need federal legislation; a messy state-by-state patchwork is one thing that could actually stifle AI development.”
Our reading: The US needs a comprehensive, federal approach to AI regulation; SB-1047 is just a start.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But it cannot be the last AI bill to pass, either in California, or the United States, if American citizens are to be protected from the many risks of AI, because it is but one link, already weakened, in the armor that we need in self-defense.”
Our reading: SB-1047 cannot be the last AI bill in California or the US if Americans are to be protected from AI's many risks.
No horizon
Qualifier: if citizens are to be protected from AI risks
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“a messy state-by-state patchwork is one thing that could actually stifle AI development.”
Our reading: A messy state-by-state patchwork of AI laws could stifle AI development.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“To my mind, many of these arguments were based on misrepresentation, as I have discussed here in earlier essays.”
Our reading: In Marcus's view, many of the arguments made against SB-1047 by Andreessen Horowitz and others were based on misrepresentation.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This does not establish that opponents' arguments were accurate.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Hopefully, SB 1047 will be signed into law, and the perfectly rational, and in fact entirely ordinary, notion of regulating AI will be normalized, and the absurd idea that such regulation would kill off AI will have vanished.”
Our reading: Marcus hopes SB-1047 will be signed into law, that the notion of regulating AI, which he calls perfectly rational and entirely ordinary, will be normalized, and that the idea that such regulation would kill off AI, which he calls absurd, will vanish.
No horizon
Qualifier: hopefully
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“The bill also sends a message to big tech that the quality of safety protocols, and internal investigations of safety, are relevant to the reasonable care standard — which can help to avoid Ford Pinto-like situations in which companies that should have known better fail to act.”
Our reading: SB-1047 sends big tech a message that the quality of safety protocols and internal safety investigations matter to the reasonable care standard, which can help avoid Ford Pinto-like situations in which companies that should have known better fail to act.
No horizon
Qualifier: can help
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Companies may simply roll the dice, and as Eric Schmidt recently said, let the lawyers “clean up the mess” after the fact.”
Our reading: AI companies may gamble on risky behavior and let lawyers handle consequences afterward despite SB-1047.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Still I support the bill, even in weakened form.”
Our reading: SB-1047 deserves support even in its weakened form.
No horizon
Qualifier: even in weakened form
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Companies like OpenAI that have talked big about investing in safety research and then stinted on their promises may finally be incentivitized to walk the walk that their talk has promised.”
Our reading: Under SB-1047, including the specter of it, companies like OpenAI that have talked big about investing in safety research and then stinted on their promises may finally be incentivized to walk the walk their talk promised.
No horizon
Scope: companies like OpenAI that stinted on safety promises
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“SB-1047’s strongest utility may come as a deterrent.”
Our reading: SB-1047's main value may be deterring irresponsible AI development by clarifying liability.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if nobody is ever penalized
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“So it must pass. I hope the full CA Assembly will support it, and that Governor Newsom will sign it into law, rather than veto it.”
Our reading: SB-1047 must pass the California Assembly and be signed by Governor Newsom rather than vetoed.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“At the very least, I foresee a significant reframing of expectations.”
Our reading: Expectations for AI will at the very least be significantly reframed, even if a full AI winter does not arrive.
No horizon
Qualifier: at the very least, whether or not an AI winter comes
Source: What has and has not changed in the AI since the ChatGPT revolution? [Video]
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Monopolies are inherently anti-consumer and anti-innovation, and the big push toward generative AI is a blatant attempt to create another monopoly — the dominance of Large Language Models owned by Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta.”
Our reading: Big tech's push toward generative AI is a deliberate attempt to create a monopoly of LLMs owned by Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta.
No horizon
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I hypothesize that the goal was (is?) for these companies to basically reduce the future of computing to you paying them for their models rather than you running your own models on their cloud compute services.”
Our reading: Ed hypothesizes that big tech's goal is to make customers pay for their models rather than run their own models on the companies' cloud services.
No horizon
Qualifier: hypothesis
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“And without something new — and no, generative AI is not the answer — they really don’t have a way to keep growing, and in the case of Meta and Google, may not have a way to sustain their companies past the next decade.”
Our reading: Without a new growth product (and generative AI is not it), Meta and Google may not be able to sustain their companies past the next decade.
No horizon
Only if: without something new beyond generative AI
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“generative AI is (in most cases) a product with minimal utility, minimal value, and will likely prove to be a transient fad”
Our reading: Generative AI will likely prove to be a transient fad.
No horizon
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Last week, in the midst of the slow, painful collapse of the generative AI hype cycle, something incredible happened.”
Our reading: The generative AI hype cycle is in a slow, painful collapse as of August 2024.
No horizon
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“And these companies are, in some cases, well-positioned to become tech’s next landlord.”
Our reading: Some big tech companies controlling LLMs are well-positioned to become the tech industry's next landlord.
No horizon
Qualifier: in some cases
Source: Monopoly Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“With no other serious proposal on offer, I personally favor SB-1047, though I would welcome discussion of alternatives.”
Our reading: With no other serious proposal on offer, Marcus personally favours SB-1047, though he would welcome discussion of alternatives.
No horizon
Qualifier: no other serious proposal on offer
Source: An open letter to Fei-Fei Li concerning California’s proposed AI regulation, SB-1047
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Those seem reasonable to me, and I don't understand what would justify an exemption there.”
Our reading: Marcus finds it reasonable for SB-1047 to focus on specific critical harms, and he does not understand what would justify an exemption from those provisions.
No horizon
Scope: critical harms such as mass casualties, weapons of mass destruction, large-scale cyberattacks, and AI models autonomously committing serious felonies
Source: An open letter to Fei-Fei Li concerning California’s proposed AI regulation, SB-1047
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“⚠️ Something terrifying just snapped in place:”
Our reading: Something terrifying has just snapped into place, as shown by the developments listed after this line.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI: On a Path to Becoming The World’s Most Frightening Surveillance Company?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“He might succeed.”
Our reading: Sam Altman might succeed in knowing and monetizing everything about people.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI: On a Path to Becoming The World’s Most Frightening Surveillance Company?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Altman wants to know - and monetize - everything about you.”
Our reading: Sam Altman wants to know everything about people and make money from it.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI: On a Path to Becoming The World’s Most Frightening Surveillance Company?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Prospects don’t seem as strong as they once did.”
Our reading: OpenAI's prospects of justifying its $80B valuation or raising at a higher valuation look weaker than before.
No horizon
Qualifier: justifying $80B valuation and raising future rounds
Source: The OpenAI Plot Thickens
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I said it before, and I will say it again: OpenAI could wind up being seen as the WeWork of AI.”
Our reading: OpenAI could end up being seen as the WeWork of AI.
No horizon
Source: The OpenAI Plot Thickens
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, or Microsoft, or Amazon — which I believe it will — these companies will face serious pressure to curtail their investments and their capex spending.”
Our reading: If generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, Microsoft, or Amazon (which Zitron believes it will), these companies will face serious pressure to curtail their investments and capital expenditures.
No horizon Evidence as of
Only if: generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, or Microsoft, or Amazon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Adding AI into the mix could easily [make things] a lot worse”
Our reading: Adding AI into the mix of social media could easily make things a lot worse.
No horizon
Scope: social media context
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But it is also not out of the question that today could end someday end up being seen as a turning point.”
Our reading: It is not out of the question that August 5, 2024 could someday end up being seen as a turning point.
No horizon
Qualifier: not out of the question
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“The most interesting thing is that the suit could force a discussion of what AGI means – in court.”
Our reading: Elon Musk's new lawsuit against OpenAI could force a court to discuss what AGI means.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“This could pertain to production delays, but also to growing market concerns about whether NVidia’s big GenAI customers could make money deploying the chips.”
Our reading: Nvidia's stock drop could be due to production delays and also to growing market concern about whether its big GenAI customers can make money deploying its chips.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“And it’s changing. The narrative is changing. And soon it will shift more aggressively and violently against big tech, and this is a great thing for the world, and ultimately the tech industry at large.”
Our reading: The narrative will soon turn more aggressively against big tech.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Even with $150m in funding — which is a decent amount of capital — Character.ai likely couldn’t keep the lights on for very long, thus necessitating its absorption by a larger company.”
Our reading: Character.ai likely could not have survived long on $150m in funding, so it had to be absorbed, which shows many generative AI applications are unsustainable.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Raising a round for a generative AI company in this market is likely going to be difficult, if not impossible.”
Our reading: In the current market, generative AI companies will likely find raising money difficult or impossible.
No horizon
Qualifier: in this market
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“These men do not care about their customers, they do not face true competition, and the government should break every single hyper scaler up — Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Oracle, and find ways to stop them ever growing so large in the future.”
Our reading: The government should break up every hyperscaler (Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Oracle) and stop them from growing so large again.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Fire Satya Nadella, fire Sundar Pichai, and work out a way to fire Mark Zuckerberg.”
Our reading: Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, and Mark Zuckerberg should be fired.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If I had to guess, Anthropic’s most likely home would be with Amazon, which completed its $4bn investment into the company earlier this year.”
Our reading: If Anthropic is absorbed by a big tech firm, Zitron guesses its most likely home would be Amazon.
No horizon
Only if: if Anthropic is absorbed by a big tech firm
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Sam Altman doesn’t care about AI either. He cares about accumulating power, has been doing so for years, and will be back with another con within three years.”
Our reading: Sam Altman doesn't care about AI; he cares about accumulating power, has been doing so for years, and will be back with another con within three years.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“There is no magic, no whimsy, no joy in any of these Large Language Models and their associated outgrowths. They're not helping anybody, yet their peddlers demand our fealty and our applause.”
Our reading: Large language models and their associated outgrowths are not helping anybody.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“In any case, I believe the next month will be critical to the future of the artificial intelligence boom.”
Our reading: The month after August 5, 2024 will be critical to the future of the AI boom.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The point I’m making is that whatever estimates we have about what these companies have spent on generative AI is probably wrong by tens of billions of dollars, and the only real reliable (ish) indicator is CapEx spending, and what’s publicly reported whenever these companies make a new investment.”
Our reading: Public estimates of big tech's generative AI spending are probably wrong by tens of billions of dollars.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“These are stable, revenue-generating (yet unprofitable) ancillary players that likely will need to raise in the next 12 months.”
Our reading: Scale AI and Cohere are unprofitable and will likely need to raise money within 12 months.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The reason I’m not breaking things out much is because Google has been extremely guarded about its AI expenses. Probably because they’re really high and not making them any money.”
Our reading: Google's AI expenses are probably very high and are not making Google any money.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“While there is a chance we get one more round — a last gasp — it’s honestly a little tough to imagine how it keeps going even if it raises another $10 billion.”
Our reading: There is a chance OpenAI gets one more funding round, a last gasp, but it is a little tough to imagine how it keeps going even if it raises another $10 billion.
No horizon
Qualifier: there is a chance
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I have no idea how quickly the shift comes, but it is inevitable that this lack of big, profitable ideas leads to some form of collapse in big tech.”
Our reading: Big tech's lack of big, profitable ideas will inevitably lead to some form of collapse, timing unknown.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“It's entirely possible that this flaw takes more than three months to resolve.”
Our reading: The Blackwell design flaw may take more than three months to fix.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“With Blackwell representing a major leap forward in capabilities (both in terms of power efficiency and sheer compute power), this is undoubtedly a massive blow to OpenAI, as well as its competitors. On a basic level, this might delay some of OpenAI’s grander ambitions for an indeterminate time.”
Our reading: The Blackwell delay is a massive blow to OpenAI and its competitors, and may delay OpenAI's bigger plans for an indeterminate time.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Sundar Pichai and Satya Nadella must go.”
Our reading: Sundar Pichai and Satya Nadella must be removed as CEOs.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If none of the major cloud companies — who are usually in lock-step with each other to keep their cartel-esque empires alive — change course over the next three months, we could potentially see this boom continue for another quarter.”
Our reading: If no major cloud company changes course in the next three months, the AI boom could continue for another quarter.
No horizon
Only if: if no major cloud company changes course over the next three months
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“However, I believe that the collapse (or absorption) of OpenAI is the one critical sign to look for.”
Our reading: Zitron believes the collapse (or absorption) of OpenAI is the one critical sign to look for that the generative AI bubble is popping.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As I wrote last week, OpenAI needs to raise more money than anybody has ever raised in the next 12-24 months, or launch a product so significant that it blows ChatGPT out of the water — things that are unlikely, but possible.”
Our reading: OpenAI must raise a record amount of money within 12–24 months or launch a product far better than ChatGPT, and both outcomes are unlikely but possible.
No horizon
Source: Burst Damage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“The people who have temporarily gotten rich or famous on AI have done so by pretending that this outlier problem simply doesn’t exist, or that a remedy for it is imminent.”
Our reading: The people who have temporarily gotten rich or famous on AI have done so by pretending that the outlier problem doesn't exist or that a remedy for it is imminent.
No horizon
Scope: people who have temporarily gotten rich or famous on AI
Source: This one important fact about current AI explains almost everything
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Everyone commenting on or thinking about AI should learn it by heart, if not verbatim, certainly the gist.”
Our reading: Everyone commenting on or thinking about AI should learn by heart, if not word for word then at least the gist, Koopman's point that machine learning trains on many examples and, when it meets something it lacks many examples of, may have no idea what is going on.
No horizon
Scope: everyone commenting on or thinking about AI
Source: This one important fact about current AI explains almost everything
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“You can’t think we are close to AGI once you realize that as yet we have no general solution to the outlier problem. You just can’t.”
Our reading: Marcus asserts emphatically that no one who realizes we do not yet have a general solution to the outlier problem can think we are close to AGI.
No horizon
Qualifier: once you realize there is as yet no general solution to the outlier problem
Source: This one important fact about current AI explains almost everything
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Once you do, almost everything that people like Altman and Musk and Kurzweil are currently saying about AGI being nigh seems like sheer fantasy, on par with imagining that really tall ladders will soon make it to the moon.”
Our reading: Once one understands that current neural networks struggle with outliers, almost everything that people like Altman, Musk and Kurzweil are currently saying about AGI being near seems like sheer fantasy, like imagining that really tall ladders will soon reach the moon.
No horizon
Qualifier: once you understand that neural networks struggle with outliers
Source: This one important fact about current AI explains almost everything
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“If it’s not directly in the training set, but merely superficially like some previous examples, there could be trouble.”
Our reading: When an input is not directly in the training set but only superficially resembles earlier examples, machine learning systems may fail.
No horizon
Qualifier: input not directly in the training set but superficially similar to previous examples
Source: This one important fact about current AI explains almost everything
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“One step backwards could open up ten forwards.”
Our reading: The GenAI setback could open the way to much greater progress in AI through other approaches.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Incredibly damning new study on GenAI from the Upwork Research Institute, via Baldur Bjarnason (whose wonderful essay on LLMs and how they fool the gullible I discussed in April).”
Our reading: The new Upwork Research Institute study on generative AI is incredibly damning.
No horizon
Qualifier: via Baldur Bjarnason
Source: Most people don’t think GenAI has improved their productivity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“It could come up with something new, or find a way to make generative AI much cheaper, but again, that is so very, very unlikely.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely that OpenAI comes up with something new or makes generative AI much cheaper.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I fear OpenAI will compete on price, sending its costs upward, or charge what it needs to to approach break-even, which I don't think it’s willing to do.”
Our reading: Zitron fears OpenAI will compete on price, sending its costs upward, or else charge what it needs to approach break-even, which he does not think it is willing to do.
No horizon
Qualifier: I fear
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As a result, OpenAI's revenue might climb, but it's likely going to climb by reducing the cost of its services rather than its own operating costs.”
Our reading: Any growth in OpenAI's revenue will likely come from cutting prices rather than cutting its own operating costs.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“And, to be clear, it is very, very unlikely this happens.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely that OpenAI succeeds in building Strawberry with advanced reasoning capabilities.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Doing so is also likely going to lead to perpetual legal action, especially as 404 Media reports that Runway, a generative video company, likely trained its model on thousands of hours of videos taken from YouTube and pirated sources.”
Our reading: Acquiring training data for generative models is likely to lead to perpetual legal action.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“For OpenAI to scale, it would require a massive capital expenditure on multiple levels, chief of them the American power grid (see page 15 of this Goldman Sachs report for a conversation with Microsoft's former VP of energy), which will likely require extensive expansion the likes of which hasn't happened in decades at a time when America is far less apt at infrastructural development.”
Our reading: For OpenAI to scale, the US power grid would likely need an expansion unseen in decades.
No horizon
Only if: for OpenAI to scale
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“It is fundamentally not the media’s job to convince the world that OpenAI is a stable company with great things ahead — that’s OpenAI’s job.”
Our reading: The media should not take on the job of convincing the world that OpenAI is a stable company; that is OpenAI's job.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Doing so multiple times is possible, but very, very unlikely, in the same way that continuing to increase revenue at hundreds of percent each year is possible, but very, very unlikely.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely that OpenAI will raise huge rounds multiple times or keep growing revenue by hundreds of percent each year.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“This isn't impossible, but it feels extremely unlikely that OpenAI would be able to do this for more than a few years.”
Our reading: It is extremely unlikely OpenAI can keep raising record sums and showing growth to investors for more than a few years.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“it’s tough to make the case that these products will fill the burning shortfall in OpenAI’s balance sheet, and would likely only add to its operational costs”
Our reading: Products like Sora and SearchGPT are unlikely to fill OpenAI's balance-sheet shortfall and would likely add to its operating costs.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Perhaps there’s something I’m missing, but if investors have no path to an IPO, this feels like a game of hot potato, except the loser is left with a big, useless stock.”
Our reading: Allowing that he may be missing something, Zitron says that if investors have no path to an IPO, investing in OpenAI feels like a game of hot potato in which the loser is left with a big, useless stock.
No horizon
Only if: if investors have no path to an IPO
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“And, to be abundantly clear, I am not sure there is enough training data in existence to get these models past the next generation.”
Our reading: There may not be enough training data in existence to take these models past the next generation.
No horizon
Qualifier: past the next generation
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“In the event that it has less than a billion in the bank, OpenAI will likely have to raise $5 billion, and do so in the next three to six months.”
Our reading: If OpenAI has under $1 billion banked, it will likely have to raise $5 billion within three to six months.
No horizon
Only if: if it has less than a billion in the bank
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Sadly, that may be the truth for OpenAI.”
Our reading: OpenAI may be burning so much cash that it needs a deep-pocketed benefactor to bail it out repeatedly.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“While theoretically Nvidia could produce a much-more-efficient chip, doing so would likely take longer than OpenAI has.”
Our reading: A much more efficient Nvidia chip would likely take longer to arrive than OpenAI can survive.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“What I am describing here is a deeply unsustainable company that many have pinned their hopes on, and even if I’m wrong, this kind of analysis is necessary when there is a company burning billions of dollars that will likely attempt to absorb billions more dollars of capital to survive.”
Our reading: OpenAI is a deeply unsustainable company burning billions that will likely try to absorb billions more in capital to survive.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“While there may be ways to reduce the costs of transformer-based models, the level of cost-reduction would be unprecedented, and likely require entirely new chips, cooling solutions and physical server architecture, none of which OpenAI develops.”
Our reading: While there may be ways to reduce the costs of transformer-based models, the level of cost reduction would be unprecedented and would likely require entirely new chips, cooling solutions and physical server architecture, none of which OpenAI develops.
No horizon
Qualifier: while there may be ways to reduce the costs
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Even if these problems are surmountable, there is simply not enough training data, and even if there were, the cost of processing it will likely vastly outweigh whatever revenue OpenAI makes.”
Our reading: Even if these problems are surmountable, there is simply not enough training data, and even if there were, the cost of processing it will likely vastly outweigh whatever revenue OpenAI makes.
No horizon
Only if: even if there were enough training data
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Raise more money than anyone ever has before — likely at least $3 billion, but more like $10 billion, and do so soon, likely within the next six months.”
Our reading: At its current pace, OpenAI would have to raise more money than anyone ever has before, likely at least $3 billion but more like $10 billion, and do so soon, likely within the next six months.
No horizon
Only if: at its current pace
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“OpenAI is inherently limited by GPT's transformer-based architecture, which does not actually automate things, and as a result may only be able to do "more" and "faster," which does not significantly change the product, at least not in such a way that would make it as valuable as it needs to be.”
Our reading: OpenAI is inherently limited by GPT's transformer-based architecture, which does not actually automate things, and as a result may only be able to do 'more' and 'faster', which does not significantly change the product, at least not enough to make it as valuable as it needs to be.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“a frank evaluation of a company that I believe may be teetering on the brink of collapse.”
Our reading: OpenAI may be teetering on the brink of collapse.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“But what they are not, at this time, is essential.”
Our reading: Generative AI models are useful but not essential at present.
No horizon
Qualifier: at this time
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“It is inherently limited by its architecture, and in turn can only get "better" in a linear fashion.”
Our reading: Generative AI is inherently limited by its architecture, and as a result it can only get 'better' in a linear fashion.
No horizon
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“This is a bigger existential threat than a lack of adoption. It means people are using it and not getting enough out of it, which could potentially lead to a significant loss of revenue as the hype cycle dies down.”
Our reading: Because users are not getting enough out of generative AI, revenue could fall significantly as the hype cycle fades.
No horizon
Qualifier: as the hype cycle dies down
Source: How Does OpenAI Survive?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“I think that GenAI is vastly overrated and overhyped, but fear that its collapse may well lead to an AI winter of sorts, like what happened in the mid-1980s, when AI “expert systems” rapidly ascended and rapidly fell.”
Our reading: GenAI is vastly overrated, and its collapse may well lead to an AI winter of sorts.
No horizon
Only if: if GenAI collapses
Source: AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The current, short-term investment climate is thus hugely biased against genuine novelty and outside the box thinking.”
Our reading: The current AI investment climate is hugely biased against genuine novelty.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The Crunchbase figure covers all of 2024 and was published after the post. The claim is about the climate in July 2024.
Source: AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Since LLMs inevitably hallucinate and are constitutionally incapable of checking their own work, there are really only two possibilities: we abandon them, or we use them as components in larger systems that can reason and plan better”
Our reading: LLMs should either be abandoned or used only as components within larger systems that reason and plan better.
No horizon
Qualifier: since LLMs inevitably hallucinate
Source: AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry, ChatGPT, and why the future of AI is neurosymbolic
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Ditto for Anthropic, and a number of others.”
Our reading: Anthropic and several other LLM companies may be fatally undercut by Meta's free models.
No horizon
Qualifier: Meta giving away similar tech for free
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“That’s not great news for OpenAI, and you can see why they haven’t been, um, Open, about their financials (reporting only revenue but not costs and profits), if The Information is even close to right.”
Our reading: If The Information's analysis is roughly right, OpenAI's losses explain why it reports only revenue and not costs or profits.
No horizon
Qualifier: if The Information's analysis is close to right
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“I have long suspected that OpenAI was losing money, and lots of it, but never seen an analysis, until this morning.”
Our reading: Marcus has long suspected that OpenAI was losing a lot of money, though until The Information's analysis he had not seen an analysis showing it.
No horizon
Qualifier: long suspected
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But investors really ought to ask some tough questions, such as these:”
Our reading: Investors should press OpenAI on its moat, unique technology, killer app, reliability, demo versus reality, and path to profitability.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“All of these questions are hard, with no obvious answer; the last may be fatal. OpenAI may well be Zuck’d.”
Our reading: OpenAI may fail to find a path to profitability because Meta gives away similar technology for free, and this may be fatal to the company.
No horizon
Qualifier: Meta giving away similar tech for free
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“This feels like this could be an economic panic unto itself.”
Our reading: It feels like it could be an economic panic in itself if tech companies don't have a new growth driver and they turn on generative AI.
No horizon
Only if: if tech companies don't have a new growth thing
Source: Rot Economics - An Interview With MIT's Daron Acemoglu
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It's not so much that we couldn't live in a virtual world or that digital money wouldn't be useful, but it's more that the actual output from the companies is not translating into meaningful products, and they're still monetized.”
Our reading: It feels like the actual output of tech companies' crypto, metaverse and generative AI efforts is not translating into meaningful products, even though it is still being monetized.
No horizon
Scope: crypto, metaverse, and now generative AI
Source: Rot Economics - An Interview With MIT's Daron Acemoglu
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“But even then it's automation only in so much as you can trust it. And it feels like these core issues of hallucinations almost kill the concept of automation with generative.”
Our reading: It feels like the core issue of hallucinations almost kills the concept of automation with generative AI, since it is automation only insofar as you can trust it.
No horizon
Qualifier: it feels like
Source: Rot Economics - An Interview With MIT's Daron Acemoglu
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Chasing black box AI, difficult to interpret, and difficult to debug, is not the answer.”
Our reading: Pursuing black-box AI that is hard to interpret and debug is not the right approach to building reliable software.
No horizon
Source: Don’t look up: the massive Microsoft/Crowdstrike data outage is a huge wake-up call