Claims that can’t be checked, page 26 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 26 of 37: claims 2501 to 2600 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“He’s the archetypal Rot-Com CEO — an unqualified lobbyist pretending to be a technologist and abusing anyone he needs to in the pursuit of growth.”
Our reading: Sam Altman is the archetypal growth-obsessed CEO, an unqualified lobbyist posing as a technologist.
No horizon
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Sam Altman isn't asking Microsoft for a $100 billion supercomputer because generative AI is going to get better — he's doing it because what we have today isn't the world-changing boondoggle that the tech industry needs it to be, and his only prospect of fulfilling the lofty promises he’s made is with a tech industry equivalent of the Marshall Plan.”
Our reading: Altman seeks a $100 billion supercomputer from Microsoft not because generative AI will improve, but because current AI is not world-changing and massive spending is his only way to meet his promises.
No horizon
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The use cases they enable are neither exciting nor ubiquitous, nor are they, if we're honest, anything like what tech executives are trying to sell us, and the problem might not be that it's useless, but that as a piece of technology, it just isn't a hyper-growth market or industry-changer, no matter how many hundreds of billions we put into it.”
Our reading: The problem with generative AI might be not that it is useless but that, as a technology, it just isn't a hyper-growth market or industry-changer, no matter how many hundreds of billions are put into it.
No horizon
Qualifier: the problem might ... be
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“On top of that, nobody really seems to be able to explain why or how generative AI is the next big thing.”
Our reading: Nobody really seems to be able to explain why or how generative AI is the next big thing.
No horizon
Qualifier: really seems
Source: The Rot-Com Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“For not so good measure, one of the few people who recognized, early, the potential dangers of unaligned AGI, Musk, has switched teams, flipping from calling for a pause to going all in on—and wildly overhyping—a technology that remains exactly as incorrigible as it ever was.”
Our reading: Current AI technology, which Musk is now wildly overhyping, remains exactly as incorrigible as it ever was.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But here’s the thing, what I said then to Bach still holds, 100%, 26 months later”
Our reading: What Marcus said to Joscha Bach 26 months earlier still holds, 100%.
No horizon
Qualifier: 26 months later
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The Board’s job is to make sure that doesn’t happen — not to cover Sam’s ass.”
Our reading: OpenAI's board should work to prevent AI causing significant harm to the world rather than protecting Altman.
No horizon
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If they cannot assemble a board that respects the legal filings they made, and cannot behave in keeping with their oft-repeated promises, they must dissolve the nonprofit, exactly as the organization Public Citizen has argued.”
Our reading: If OpenAI cannot assemble a board that respects its legal filings and keep its promises, it must dissolve the nonprofit.
No horizon
Qualifier: if they cannot assemble a board respecting their legal filings
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“OpenAI does not behave like a nonprofit and has not for a long time.”
Our reading: OpenAI does not behave like a nonprofit and has not for a long time.
No horizon
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The degree to which they diverted from that core issue that led to Sam’s firing is genuinely disturbing, given that the board is our last and only line of defense if Sam chooses for economic reasons to do something genuinely dangerous.”
Our reading: The degree to which the new board members diverted from the core issue that led to Altman's firing is genuinely disturbing, because the board is the last and only line of defense if Altman chooses, for economic reasons, to do something genuinely dangerous.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Altman chooses for economic reasons to do something genuinely dangerous
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The failure of two members of the new board (include Taylor, who chairs that Board) to draw that connection, coupled with their misdirection and unfair attack on Toner, is absolutely terrifying.”
Our reading: The failure of two new board members, including chair Taylor, to draw the connection between candor and safety, together with their misdirection and unfair attack on Toner, is absolutely terrifying.
No horizon
Scope: two members of the new board, including Taylor
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“Of course, there is a connection between safety and candor, and an obvious one at that: if Altman can’t be trusted, safety could become a serious issue.”
Our reading: If Altman can't be trusted, safety at OpenAI could become a serious issue.
No horizon
Only if: if Altman can't be trusted
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“As far as I can tell, Toner and the earlier board acted in good faith.”
Our reading: As far as Marcus can tell, Toner and the earlier OpenAI board acted in good faith.
No horizon
Qualifier: as far as I can tell
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The fact that the Board agreed in November (when they did not see an absolute safety issue of the sort that would require the end of the company) to dissolve itself and to restore Altman to CEO rather than let the company dissolve (once virtually all the employees threatened to leave) shows that their preference for keeping the company was genuine, and that they acted in good faith.”
Our reading: The former OpenAI board genuinely preferred to keep the company intact and acted in good faith in November 2023.
No horizon
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The Board should have been apprised that this was in the works.”
Our reading: OpenAI's board should have been told in advance that ChatGPT was being launched.
No horizon
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If OpenAI does eventually develop deeply risky technology, it is incumbent on the nonprofit’s board to address that, and if they can’t trust Altman, I don’t see they can do their job.”
Our reading: If OpenAI eventually develops deeply risky technology, the nonprofit's board has a duty to address it, and Marcus does not see how the board can do that job if it cannot trust Altman.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI eventually develops deeply risky technology
Source: Disturbing and misleading efforts to defame Helen Toner through misdirection
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“On the other hand, the chatbots of both X.ai and Meta still seem to me to be wildly inadequate, hallucinatory machines that merely hint at what AI could be, but with precious little understanding of the concepts underlying the words they so fluently use.”
Our reading: To Marcus, the chatbots of X.ai and Meta still seem to be wildly inadequate, hallucinatory machines that merely hint at what AI could be and have precious little understanding of the concepts behind the words they fluently use.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This does not reject or vindicate the factual allegation that the chatbots hallucinated.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Musk and LeCun may have the soapboxes and the money, but what we really need is a breakthrough.”
Our reading: What AI really needs is a breakthrough, not just money and publicity.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Both Musk and LeCun (via Meta) command massive budgets to explore AI; I am not convinced that either is making real progress.”
Our reading: Marcus is not convinced that either Musk's xAI or Meta is making real AI progress despite massive budgets.
No horizon
Qualifier: despite massive budgets
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“we need more science if we are to get to AGI.”
Our reading: Reaching AGI requires more basic science.
No horizon
Qualifier: if AGI is to be reached
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“AI needs more science, but it needs engineering, too.”
Our reading: AI needs more science as well as engineering.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Right now we have a lot of engineering and alchemy, but not enough basic principles and formal understanding.”
Our reading: Right now AI has a lot of engineering and alchemy but not enough basic principles and formal understanding.
No horizon
Scope: right now
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Probably Sam would still own it if not for Primack’s digging, and we would have one more conflict of interest to worry about.”
Our reading: Altman probably divested from the OpenAI Startup fund because of Dan Primack's reporting and would otherwise still own it.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“That’s pretty scary too, given what OpenAI aspires to build.”
Our reading: Altman giving the board inaccurate information on multiple occasions about OpenAI's few formal safety processes is pretty scary, given what OpenAI aspires to build.
No horizon
Qualifier: given what OpenAI aspires to build
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“That’s insane. And underscores everything I have said about the company straying from its nonprofit mission.”
Our reading: OpenAI not informing its board in advance of ChatGPT's release shows the company has strayed from its nonprofit mission.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Particularly as long as the US is relying essentially on self-regulation and Sam is aspiring to build ever more powerful models with less and less independent oversight, that should concern us all, deeply.”
Our reading: Altman consolidating more and more power while seeming less and less on the level should deeply concern us all, particularly as long as the US relies essentially on self-regulation and Altman aspires to build ever more powerful models with less and less independent oversight.
No horizon
Qualifier: particularly as long as the US is relying essentially on self-regulation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Reading between the lines, Sam may well wind up with direct equity in the end, after all:”
Our reading: Sam Altman may eventually end up holding direct equity in OpenAI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Because we can’t have the CEO of a company that potentially powerful behaving that way.”
Our reading: The CEO of a potentially powerful AI company like OpenAI should not be allowed to behave deceptively toward his board.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“It doesn’t matter that those “things” are useless, harmful, or profoundly intrusive.”
Our reading: The things Meta's generative AI assistant gives users are useless, harmful, or profoundly intrusive.
No horizon
Source: We're Watching Facebook Die
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“And they’re running absolutely rampant on the platform, all because Meta has no duty toward its users.”
Our reading: AI-generated image spam groups are running rampant on Facebook because Meta has no duty toward its users.
No horizon
Source: We're Watching Facebook Die
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“At this point, I think it is correct for the public to take everything OpenAI says with a grain of salt.”
Our reading: The public should take everything OpenAI says with a grain of salt.
No horizon
Source: What should we learn from OpenAI’s mistakes and broken promises?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Without independent scientists in the loop, with a real voice, we are lost.”
Our reading: Without independent scientists in the loop with a real voice, we are lost.
No horizon
Qualifier: without independent scientists in the loop, with a real voice
Source: What should we learn from OpenAI’s mistakes and broken promises?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But OpenAI still have massive power, and with it a chance to screw up, and possibly put humanity at risk.”
Our reading: OpenAI has massive power and could possibly put humanity at risk.
No horizon
Source: What should we learn from OpenAI’s mistakes and broken promises?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Millions, perhaps billions, of documents likely have been taken without permission.”
Our reading: OpenAI has likely taken millions, perhaps billions, of documents without permission.
No horizon
Source: What should we learn from OpenAI’s mistakes and broken promises?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If the first lesson is specific - that OpenAI should not be fully trusted – the second lesson is general.”
Our reading: OpenAI should not be fully trusted.
No horizon
Source: What should we learn from OpenAI’s mistakes and broken promises?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The list above is not complete, but it shows a significant gap between the rosy rhetoric and actual reality, and in my view that gap has only grown over time, particularly over the last year or so..”
Our reading: The author's non-exhaustive list shows a significant gap between OpenAI's rosy rhetoric and reality, and in his view that gap has only grown over time, particularly over the last year or so.
No horizon
Qualifier: in my view
Source: What should we learn from OpenAI’s mistakes and broken promises?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“As I argue, in my upcoming book Taming Silicon Valley, our only real hope is if citizens speak up.”
Our reading: The only real hope for governing AI is citizens speaking up.
No horizon
Source: What should we learn from OpenAI’s mistakes and broken promises?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Our government has been repeatedly complicit, treating Altman repeatedly as royalty.”
Our reading: The US government has repeatedly been complicit, repeatedly treating Altman as royalty.
No horizon
Source: What should we learn from OpenAI’s mistakes and broken promises?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Partial regurgitation, no matter how fluent, does not, and will not ever, constitute genuine comprehension.”
Our reading: Partial regurgitation, no matter how fluent, does not and will not ever constitute genuine comprehension.
No horizon
Qualifier: no matter how fluent
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Neural nets do store weights, but that doesn’t mean that they know what they are talking about”
Our reading: Storing weights does not mean neural nets know what they are talking about.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Getting to real AI will require a different approach.”
Our reading: Getting to real AI will require a different approach from the partial-regurgitation approach of current LLMs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Instead, they appear to be focused precisely on financial return, and appear almost indifferent to some the ways in which their product has already hurt large numbers of people (artists, writers, voiceover actors, etc).”
Our reading: OpenAI appears to be focused precisely on financial return and appears almost indifferent to some of the ways its product has already hurt large numbers of people, such as artists, writers and voiceover actors.
No horizon
Qualifier: appear(s)
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The real issue isn’t whether OpenAI would win in court, it’s what happens to all of us, if a company with a track record for cutting ethical corners winds up first to AGI.”
Our reading: The real issue is not whether OpenAI would win in court but what happens to all of us if a company with a track record for cutting ethical corners ends up first to AGI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“And that we don’t leave our collective future entirely to self-regulation.”
Our reading: Society should not leave AI's future entirely to industry self-regulation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I pray that we can return to AI that is genuinely in the public interest.”
Our reading: AI development should go back to being genuinely in the public interest.
No horizon
Source: AI has become Sauron’s Ring
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“But the science has been corrupted by money.”
Our reading: The science of AI has been corrupted by money.
No horizon
Source: AI has become Sauron’s Ring
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“AI didn’t *have* to go down such a shitty path of enabling and accelerating surveillance capitalism, misinformation, nonconsensual deepfake porn, IP theft, etc.”
Our reading: AI has gone down a path of enabling and accelerating surveillance capitalism, misinformation, nonconsensual deepfake porn and IP theft, which was not inevitable.
No horizon
Source: AI has become Sauron’s Ring
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Artists and writer and actors don’t want their work to be used without their permission; if you want to use their stuff, you should compensate them, and get their permission.”
Our reading: Those who want to use artists', writers' and actors' work should compensate them and get their permission.
No horizon
Qualifier: if using creators' work
Source: The OpenAI board was right
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Gary Marcus has seen enough, and hopes that the new OpenAI board recognizes that Sam’s behavior is not consistent with what one would expect of a nonprofit that has pledged to help humanity.”
Our reading: The new OpenAI board should recognize that Sam Altman's behavior is inconsistent with a nonprofit pledged to help humanity.
No horizon
Source: The OpenAI board was right
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Sam got away with a lot for a long time, but people are starting to see through the ruse.”
Our reading: People are starting to see through Sam Altman's ruse after he got away with a lot for a long time.
No horizon
Source: The OpenAI board was right
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Spin is a way of life at OpenAI; telling the truth is not.”
Our reading: OpenAI habitually spins rather than tells the truth.
No horizon
Source: The OpenAI board was right
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“it's time for artificial intelligence companies to start showing us something, and it's time for OpenAI to stop being given any credit or quarter to tell us what it "will" do until it shows us.”
Our reading: OpenAI should get no credit for claims about what it will do until it demonstrates results.
No horizon
Qualifier: until it shows us
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Failing to interrogate these people will cause immeasurable harm to the creatives they're stealing from, and anyone in the media that believes that Altman and his ilk won't come for their work is living in a fantasy land.”
Our reading: Failing to interrogate these people will cause immeasurable harm to the creatives they are stealing from; separately and unconditionally, anyone in the media who believes Altman and his ilk won't come for their work is living in a fantasy land.
No horizon
Only if: failing to interrogate these people
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“where products are built upon a foundation of stolen content interpreted by a model that doesn’t actually know anything — because AI can’t, by definition, know anything.”
Our reading: AI products are built on stolen content and AI models cannot, by definition, know anything.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“It's time to actively push back on Altman when he says that GPT-5 will be "similar to a virtual brain," or a "super smart person who knows absolutely everything about your life," or a "super-competent colleague," or that it'll "replace 95% of marketing tasks,"”
Our reading: People should push back on Altman's claims that GPT-5 will be like a virtual brain, a super-competent colleague, or will replace 95% of marketing tasks.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The AI reality distortion field feels like a giant con, used to keep media attention (and traffic) flowing to ChatGPT so that Altman can continue claiming that "generative AI is the future" when it's yet to prove itself necessary, essential, or capable of overcoming its massive energy, compute and training data needs. Or, for that matter, a financially-viable service.”
Our reading: Generative AI has yet to prove itself necessary, essential, able to overcome its energy, compute and data needs, or financially viable.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Yet they will fail to perpetuate further misery if they are interrogated with the suspicion they deserve.”
Our reading: If AI companies are scrutinized with suspicion, they will fail to cause further harm.
No horizon
Only if: if interrogated with suspicion
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The second possible explanation — and the most plausible in my opinion — is that OpenAI simply pirated her likeness and then tried to bring her onboard in a failed attempt to eliminate any potential legal risk.”
Our reading: In Zitron's opinion, the most plausible of two explanations is that OpenAI simply pirated Scarlett Johansson's likeness and then tried to bring her on board, in a failed attempt to eliminate any potential legal risk.
No horizon
Qualifier: the most plausible in my opinion
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Push back against the vague promises of artificial intelligence.”
Our reading: People should push back against vague promises about AI.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“He needs us to humor — even if he rejects the notion — the idea that AI could be considered a "creature" because doing so allows him to add further mystique and hype to distract from the fact that he doesn't seem to know anything and OpenAI doesn't seem to be innovating.”
Our reading: Altman needs people to entertain the idea that AI could be considered a 'creature', even if he rejects the notion, because doing so lets him add mystique and hype that distracts from the fact that he doesn't seem to know anything and OpenAI doesn't seem to be innovating.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if he rejects the notion
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I'll cut to the chase: it's time to stop listening to anything that Sam Altman has to say.”
Our reading: People should stop listening to anything Sam Altman says.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“This is not a person that should be making decisions about the future of the tech industry, nor should he be allowed to spout fan fiction and automatically have it covered as gospel.”
Our reading: Sam Altman should not be making decisions about the tech industry's future, and his claims should not be covered uncritically.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Questions must be asked of these founders, and follow-up questions asked based on what they say, and their reckless, stupid ideas must be faced with suspicion and a complete lack of the benefit of the doubt.”
Our reading: These founders (Altman and the other tech leaders discussed in the post) must be asked questions and follow-up questions, and their reckless, stupid ideas must be met with suspicion and a complete lack of the benefit of the doubt.
No horizon
Scope: these founders: Altman, Pichai, Nadella, Zuckerberg and their peers discussed in the post
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Sam Altman is full of shit, and his reign at OpenAI has been defined far more by its empty promises than any realized dreams.”
Our reading: Sam Altman is full of shit, and his reign at OpenAI has been defined far more by empty promises than by any realized dreams.
No horizon
Source: Sam Altman Is Full Of Shit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“People don’t leave companies with $86 billion valuations for nothing. Four key resignations thus far in 2024 is not a good sign.”
Our reading: The four key resignations from OpenAI so far in 2024 are not a good sign.
No horizon
Scope: thus far in 2024
Source: Chaos and tension at OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“My friends in Washington should look into this.”
Our reading: Marcus's friends in Washington should look into the situation at OpenAI described in the post, including the resignations and the questions he raises about it.
No horizon
Scope: my friends in Washington
Source: Chaos and tension at OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“As Elon Musk noted in his lawsuit against OpenAI, that mission seems to be in the rear view mirrors.”
Our reading: OpenAI's founding mission of benefiting humanity, with AI safety at its center, appears to have been left behind.
No horizon
Source: Chaos and tension at OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“I don’t think it’s about a scary new algorithm per se (as many people have speculated) – I suspects it is about an attitude: the company’s attitude towards AI safety.”
Our reading: Marcus suspects Ilya Sutskever left OpenAI because of the company's attitude toward AI safety, not because of a scary new algorithm.
No horizon
Qualifier: regarding Ilya Sutskever's departure
Source: Chaos and tension at OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“If OpenAI had GPT-5, they have would shown it.”
Our reading: If OpenAI had GPT-5, it would have shown it.
No horizon
Qualifier: if OpenAI had GPT-5
Source: Hot take on OpenAI’s new GPT-4o
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“OpenAI has presumably pivoted to new features precisely because they don’t know how produce the kind of capability advance that the “exponential improvement” would have predicted.”
Our reading: OpenAI has presumably pivoted to new features precisely because it does not know how to produce the kind of capability advance that 'exponential improvement' would have predicted.
No horizon
Qualifier: presumably
Source: Hot take on OpenAI’s new GPT-4o
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Most importantly, each day in which there is no GPT-5 level model–from OpenAI or any of their well-financed, well-motivated competitors—is evidence that we may have reached a phase of diminishing returns.”
Our reading: The continued absence of a GPT-5 level model from OpenAI or competitors is evidence that LLM development may have reached a phase of diminishing returns.
No horizon
Qualifier: absence of any GPT-5 level model from OpenAI or competitors
Source: Hot take on OpenAI’s new GPT-4o
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s time — it’s been time for a while — to accept that artificial intelligence isn’t the digital panacea that will automate our entire lives, and that reality may be far more mediocre than what Sam Altman and his ilk have been selling.”
Our reading: People should accept that AI will not automate our entire lives and may be far more mediocre than Sam Altman claims.
No horizon
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Venture capital investment is at a five-year-low because an alarming amount of VCs don’t seem to understand technology or business, and seem entirely married to hype cycles.”
Our reading: Venture capital investment is at a five-year low because an alarming number of VCs seem not to understand technology or business and seem entirely married to hype cycles.
No horizon
Qualifier: seem
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“but the thing that I think he’s leaving out is that it may take an energy breakthrough (and more chips) for generative AI to approach any level of necessity”
Our reading: In the author's view, it may take an energy breakthrough and more chips for generative AI to reach any level of necessity.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“because something that can automate your calendar, your emails, your music and your travel in a way that you can actually rely on requires operating system-level access and processing of information that may never exist.”
Our reading: Something that can reliably automate your calendar, emails, music and travel requires operating-system-level access and information processing that may never exist.
No horizon
Qualifier: in a way that you can actually rely on
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Sora’s problem isn’t really the amount of time it takes to generate a shot, but the imprecision that comes from using a generative artificial intelligence that doesn’t really know anything.”
Our reading: Sora's main problem is imprecision caused by generative AI not really knowing anything.
No horizon
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Companies like Google, OpenAI and Rabbit should be treated with suspicion when they make flowery promises, and derision when they continually fail to do anything useful.”
Our reading: Companies like Google, OpenAI and Rabbit should be treated with suspicion when they make flowery promises, and with derision when they continually fail to do anything useful.
No horizon
Only if: when they make flowery promises
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Or perhaps the truth was a little simpler: there wasn’t much artificial intelligence happening at all.”
Our reading: Perhaps there wasn't much artificial intelligence happening at all in Rabbit's Large Action Model.
No horizon
Qualifier: perhaps
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“The tech industry needs to start building things for real people again.”
Our reading: The tech industry should build products that solve real problems for ordinary people.
No horizon
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Sora hasn’t even been launched, save to a few hand-picked companies that got to test an early version, meaning that the 10-to-20 minute wait between generations is something that’s likely to increase once more people use the product, and that’s before you consider how incredibly expensive it is to run a significantly more complex model than ChatGPT, which is already unprofitable for OpenAI to run.”
Our reading: Sora's 10-20 minute generation wait is likely to increase once more people use it.
No horizon
Only if: once more people use the product
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Companies that deliver features late should not get credit for features they are yet to deliver, and companies like Rabbit that engage in the language of science fiction to paper over their lazily-developed half-solutions should get buried for doing so.”
Our reading: Companies should get no credit for features not yet delivered, and companies like Rabbit that hype half-solutions should be harshly criticized.
No horizon
Source: Expectations Versus Reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Gary Marcus doesn’t know exactly what to make of all this, but feels like it could matter eventually. A lot.”
Our reading: The increasingly complicated Microsoft–OpenAI relationship could eventually matter a great deal.
No horizon
Source: Microsoft and OpenAI’s increasingly complicated relationship
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Though I am not a tax attorney or an accountant, nor do I have any insight beyond what’s publicly available, this highly suggests that Rabbit Inc cannot currently do business in the State of California, where it is headquartered.”
Our reading: Rabbit Inc.'s forfeited status strongly suggests it cannot currently do business in California, where it is headquartered.
No horizon
Qualifier: based on forfeited status with California Secretary of State
Source: Rabbit Holed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I also want Lyu to apologize to anyone who invested in GAMA, and the multiple people he has attempted to gaslight by suggesting he had no relationship with the company.”
Our reading: Zitron wants Jesse Lyu to apologize to anyone who invested in GAMA and to the multiple people Lyu has attempted to gaslight by suggesting he had no relationship with the company.
No horizon
Source: Rabbit Holed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I also believe that Jesse Lyu owes reporters he has talked to and users that have paid him money thorough explanations as to what happened to his previous ventures, what happened to the funds raised by said ventures, and why he has so thoroughly sought to obfuscate their existence.”
Our reading: Zitron believes Jesse Lyu owes the reporters he has talked to and the users who have paid him money thorough explanations of what happened to his previous ventures, what happened to the funds those ventures raised, and why he has so thoroughly sought to obfuscate their existence.
No horizon
Qualifier: I also believe
Source: Rabbit Holed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“At the very least, Jesse Lyu should comprehensively explain what has happened here and be honest and forthright with his explanations.”
Our reading: Rabbit CEO Jesse Lyu should give a full, honest explanation of what happened with GAMA and Cyber Manufacture.
No horizon
Source: Rabbit Holed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“In seeking to grab vast resources for an approach that is deeply flawed, Altman is diverting resources from alternative approaches from AI that might be more trustworthy, reliable, and interpretable, potentially incurring considerable environment costs, and distracting from better ways of using capital to help humanity more generally.”
Our reading: In seeking vast resources for a deeply flawed approach, Altman is diverting resources from alternative AI approaches that might be more trustworthy, reliable and interpretable, is potentially incurring considerable environmental costs, and is distracting from better ways of using capital to help humanity more generally.
No horizon
Qualifier: alternatives that might be more trustworthy, reliable, and interpretable
Source: The Sam Altman Playbook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If they lost one of those in court, and precedent against training on copyright materials was set, the entire enterprise could be in jeopardy.”
Our reading: If OpenAI lost a copyright lawsuit setting precedent against training on copyrighted materials, its entire enterprise could be in jeopardy.
No horizon
Only if: OpenAI loses a copyright lawsuit
Source: The Sam Altman Playbook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Many (except perhaps the humility and soft-spoken tone) are familiar from Elon Musk’s regular overpromising; almost all the AI companies are basically following the same playbook, albeit with less panache.”
Our reading: Almost all AI companies follow the same overpromising, speculative playbook as Altman.
No horizon
Source: The Sam Altman Playbook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Altman isn’t out there selling a new product; he is selling hope.”
Our reading: Altman is selling hope rather than a new product.
No horizon
Source: The Sam Altman Playbook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“GoogleDeepMind, Anthropic, Meta or someone else could conceivably beat them there.”
Our reading: Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta or someone else could conceivably beat OpenAI to a GPT-5-level model.
No horizon
Qualifier: conceivably
Source: The Sam Altman Playbook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“At Stanford he said, “I think every year for the next many we have dramatically more capable systems every year”, as if that were a sure thing, when of course it isn’t.”
Our reading: It is not a sure thing that AI systems will become dramatically more capable every year for many years.
No horizon
Source: The Sam Altman Playbook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Meta will likely release a GPT-4 level model within months – for free.”
Our reading: Meta will likely release a free GPT-4-level model within months of May 2024.
No horizon
Qualifier: for free
Source: The Sam Altman Playbook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Training GPT-4 was expensive, training GPT-5 maybe an order of magnitude more expensive. GPT-6 yet another order more expensive.”
Our reading: Training GPT-5 may cost an order of magnitude more than GPT-4, and GPT-6 another order of magnitude more.
No horizon
Source: The Sam Altman Playbook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Whether GenAI proves to be AGI is very much still up for grabs, and on any reasonable account we have a long way to go.”
Our reading: Whether generative AI proves to be AGI is very much still up for grabs, and on any reasonable account there is a long way to go.
No horizon
Qualifier: on any reasonable account
Source: The Sam Altman Playbook
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Social media might be an example. But things may actually get worse.”
Our reading: The epistemic situation may actually get worse than social media, which Marcus says might itself be an example of an epistemic clusterfuck.
No horizon
Qualifier: social media might be an example of an epistemic clusterfuck
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Automatically amplifying the already inherent tendency towards extremism without fact-checking or reasoned analysis is a recipe for chaos.”
Our reading: Automatically amplifying the already inherent tendency towards extremism without fact-checking or reasoned analysis is a recipe for chaos.
No horizon
Qualifier: without fact-checking or reasoned analysis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Yet because Altman — like every manager — is so thoroughly divorced from actual production, he’s only succeeded in generating unsustainable hype and making vague promises that the people who do the actual work at OpenAI likely know they can’t keep.”
Our reading: Because he is divorced from actual production, Altman has only generated unsustainable AI hype and vague promises that OpenAI's workers likely know cannot be kept.
No horizon
Source: Managing Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Much like ChatGPT, Altman is capable only of loosely approximating the output requested, because at his core he lacks any of the substance or technical history required to do so.”
Our reading: ChatGPT, like Sam Altman, can only loosely approximate the output requested of it.
No horizon
Source: Managing Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If left unchecked, OpenAI will perpetuate one of the largest thefts in history, looting the internet and using it to train models that have yet to prove their necessity other than as a symbol that Silicon Valley can still innovate.”
Our reading: If left unchecked, OpenAI will perpetuate one of the largest thefts in history by looting the internet and using it to train models that have yet to prove their necessity other than as a symbol that Silicon Valley can still innovate.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI is left unchecked
Source: Managing Up