Claims that can’t be checked, page 28 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 28 of 37: claims 2701 to 2800 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“GenAI will still exist, and find some use, but valuations and excitement may dissipate, reemerging only once genuine advances are made.”
Our reading: GenAI will persist and find some use, but valuations and excitement may dissipate until genuine advances are made.
No horizon
Only if: if no quantum leap by end of 2024
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The entire industry is based on hype, and on the specific hope that the kinds of problems we saw again and again with GPT-2, GPT-3, and GPT-4, not to mention Claude, Grok, Gemini, LLaMA, and so on, are on the verge of being solved — even as the reality is that all the big players are converging on systems”
Our reading: The generative AI industry is based on hype and the hope that persistent LLM problems are about to be solved.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But as time goes on, I increasingly believe that call was correct.”
Our reading: Marcus increasingly believes his August 2023 call that generative AI may turn out to be a dud was correct, though he is not yet claiming victory.
No horizon
Qualifier: not yet claiming victory
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“GenAI will, in that case, live for another day, perhaps imploding only later when people realize there is no killer app to justify the increasingly high costs.”
Our reading: Even with a mindblowing GPT-5 in 2024, GenAI might implode later once people realize there is no killer app to justify rising costs.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI releases a truly mindblowing GPT-5 this year
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“GPT-5 may be more satisfying but is likely even more expensive to train and operate.”
Our reading: GPT-5 may be more satisfying but is likely even more expensive to train and operate than current models.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But will we see a mindblowing GPT this year? I doubt it.”
Our reading: OpenAI is unlikely to release a mindblowing GPT model in 2024.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Presumably the operating idea here is that (a) $100B will equal AGI and (b) that customers will pay literally anything for AGI. I doubt either premise is correct.”
Our reading: A $100B LLM investment is unlikely to produce AGI.
No horizon
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Presumably the operating idea here is that (a) $100B will equal AGI and (b) that customers will pay literally anything for AGI. I doubt either premise is correct.”
Our reading: It is doubtful that customers would pay literally anything for AGI.
No horizon
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If they are wrong, the net effect will be to delay AGI, because their project will siphon away talent from other approaches – just as it already has, but more so.”
Our reading: If the Stargate premises are wrong, the project will delay AGI by siphoning talent away from other approaches.
No horizon
Only if: if the premises ($100B equals AGI; customers pay anything) are wrong
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“A $100B LLM is still an LLM.”
Our reading: A $100B LLM is still an LLM.
No horizon
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“By any reasonable account the worst investment in the history of AI has to be the over $100 billion that have been invested in “driverless” cars.”
Our reading: By any reasonable account, the over $100 billion invested in driverless cars has to be the worst investment in the history of AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: by any reasonable account
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The generality of Waymo’s approach is very much still in question, and I am not sure anyone else is still seriously in the full autonomy game.”
Our reading: The generality of Waymo's approach (to conditions such as bad weather, poorly mapped roads and different driving patterns) is very much still in question, and Marcus is not sure anyone else is still seriously in the full autonomy game.
No horizon
Qualifier: I am not sure
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Driverless cars were crippled by the endless long tail of outliers; LLMs may well pattern similarly, working in many cases but often troubled by the unexpected, even when scaled.”
Our reading: LLMs, even when scaled, may well remain often troubled by unexpected cases, as driverless cars were by the long tail of outliers.
No horizon
Qualifier: even when scaled
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Reasoning and planning in unexpected scenarios are still likely to be flawed.”
Our reading: Even a $100B LLM will likely still have flawed reasoning and planning in unexpected scenarios.
No horizon
Qualifier: in unexpected scenarios
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“On many tasks, the results might be only slightly better than a $10B model or a $1B model, but the operating costs presumably would be much larger.”
Our reading: On many tasks, a $100B LLM's results might be only slightly better than those of a $10B or $1B model, while its operating costs would presumably be much larger.
No horizon
Scope: on many tasks
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“On most problems, customers probably would not be willing to pay the required premium.”
Our reading: On most problems, customers probably would not pay the premium required by a $100B LLM.
No horizon
Qualifier: on most problems
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But misery loves company, and the forlorn $100B may see company before the end of the decade.”
Our reading: Before the end of the decade, another $100B AI investment (Microsoft/OpenAI's Stargate) may join driverless cars as a poor investment.
No horizon
Source: The Second Worst $100B Investment in The History of AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Or to take another example, poorly-written software, authored in part by GenAI, could spread malware leading to a massive security incident that dwarfs WannaCry; who will pay the bills to fix it? Society.”
Our reading: Poorly written software authored in part by GenAI could spread malware, leading to a massive security incident that dwarfs WannaCry, and society would pay the bills to fix it.
No horizon
Scope: authored in part by GenAI
Source: The race between positive and negative applications of Generative AI is on – and not looking pretty
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“They get rich, we pay the price.”
Our reading: AI companies get rich while society pays the costs.
No horizon
Source: The race between positive and negative applications of Generative AI is on – and not looking pretty
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If the 2024 election flips based on GenAI-created disinformation, there will be a huge cost to society, but it is unlikely that the GenAI companies will be held responsible in any serious way.”
Our reading: If GenAI disinformation flips the 2024 election, GenAI companies are unlikely to be held seriously responsible.
No horizon
Only if: if the 2024 election flips based on GenAI disinformation
Source: The race between positive and negative applications of Generative AI is on – and not looking pretty
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“It is doubtful that existing laws are up to the task, particularly given how expensive their lawyers are likely to be.”
Our reading: Existing laws are unlikely to make Microsoft or OpenAI pay for wrong chatbot advice.
No horizon
Qualifier: for wrong chatbot advice
Source: The race between positive and negative applications of Generative AI is on – and not looking pretty
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If lots of code gets written, fast, but that code is riddled with security problems, the net advantage on the positive side of the ledger may be less than anticipated.”
Our reading: If lots of code gets written fast but that code is riddled with security problems, the net advantage of AI on the positive side of the ledger may be less than anticipated.
No horizon
Only if: if lots of code gets written, fast, but is riddled with security problems
Source: The race between positive and negative applications of Generative AI is on – and not looking pretty
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“While Musk might describe Tesla as an AI and robotics company, an independent board will likely notice that Tesla makes electric vehicles, and that its CEO spends hours a day posting about "woke culture" and attacking the corporate media.”
Our reading: An independent Tesla board would likely notice that, despite Musk describing Tesla as an AI and robotics company, Tesla makes electric vehicles and its CEO spends hours a day posting about "woke culture" and attacking the corporate media.
No horizon
Only if: an independent board
Source: The Descent of Elon Musk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The answer, of course, is that OpenAI has zero interest in talking to anyone in the film industry or any creators anywhere, and Murati should've been verbally flayed for suggesting otherwise.”
Our reading: OpenAI has no interest in consulting the film industry or creators about how it develops Sora.
No horizon
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“What I fear isn't automation taking our jobs, but the bottom falling out of generative AI as companies realize that the best they're going to see is a few digits of profit growth.”
Our reading: The bottom may fall out of generative AI as companies realize it yields only small profit growth.
No horizon
Qualifier: as companies realize gains are small
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“If you focus on the present — what OpenAI's technology can do today, and will likely do for some time — you see in terrifying clarity that generative AI isn't a society-altering technology, but another form of efficiency-driving cloud computing software that benefits a relatively small niche of people.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not society-altering but niche efficiency software, and likely will remain so for some time.
No horizon
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“even though OpenAI's models continually prove themselves unable to match even the dumbest human beings alive.”
Our reading: OpenAI's models cannot match even the least capable humans.
No horizon
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“And I don't believe things are likely to improve.”
Our reading: Generative AI's limitations are unlikely to improve.
No horizon
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I fear that the result could be a far worse year for the tech industry than we saw in 2023, one where the majority of the pain hits workers rather than the ghouls who inflated this perilous bubble.”
Our reading: The AI bubble's collapse could produce a far worse year for tech than 2023, with most pain falling on workers.
No horizon
Qualifier: as a result of the AI bubble popping
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“I am, however, saying that if AI was actually capable of replacing the outputs of human beings — even if it was anywhere near doing so — any number of massive, scurrilous firms would be doing so at scale, and planning to do so more as models improved.”
Our reading: If AI were actually capable of replacing the outputs of human beings, or even anywhere near it, many massive firms would be doing so at scale and planning to do more as models improved.
No horizon
Only if: if AI were capable of, or anywhere near, replacing human outputs
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Altman wants to talk about the big, sexy stories of Average General Intelligences that can take human jobs because the reality of OpenAI — and generative AI by extension — is far more boring, limited and expensive than he'd like you to know.”
Our reading: Altman talks up stories of general intelligences that can take human jobs because the reality of OpenAI, and of generative AI by extension, is far more boring, limited and expensive than he would like people to know.
No horizon
Scope: generative AI by extension
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The media has been fooled, in the same way they were fooled by the metaverse, by the specious promises of AI and the executives that champion it.”
Our reading: The media has been fooled by the false promises of AI, as it was by the metaverse.
No horizon
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“I believe a large part of the artificial intelligence boom is hot air, pumped through a combination of executive bullshitting and a compliant media that will gladly write stories imagining what AI can do rather than focus on what it's actually doing.”
Our reading: Much of the AI boom is hype created by executives and a compliant media.
No horizon
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Yet his ultra-successful hype campaign was deeply specious, and he — along with the rest of the AI industry — has found himself suddenly having to deliver a future he's not even close to developing.”
Our reading: Altman and the AI industry are not close to delivering the future they hyped.
No horizon
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“If you stop saying things like "AI could do" or "AI will do," you have to start asking what AI can do, and the answer is...not that much, and not much more in the future.”
Our reading: AI can do little today and will not do much more in the future.
No horizon
Source: Have We Reached Peak AI?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Climate impact needs to be considered, especially as models continue to grow.”
Our reading: The climate impact of AI models should be considered, especially as they grow.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially as models continue to grow
Source: Happy 1st Birthday, GPT-4
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“We might be reaching a plateau in terms of sheer capability.”
Our reading: LLM capability may be reaching a plateau around GPT-4 level.
No horizon
Source: Happy 1st Birthday, GPT-4
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Meanwhile, phrases in official filings like“Charitable” and “For the public benefit” don’t seem to have meant much at all.”
Our reading: Phrases in OpenAI's official filings such as 'Charitable' and 'For the public benefit' don't seem to have meant much at all.
No horizon
Qualifier: don't seem to have
Source: OpenAI’s Lies and Half-Truths
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Aside from all that, Murati claimed she had no idea what specific data Sora was trained on; given her role as CTO that seems all but inconceivable.”
Our reading: Given her role as CTO, it seems all but inconceivable to Marcus that Mira Murati had no idea what specific data Sora was trained on.
No horizon
Qualifier: given her role as CTO
Source: OpenAI’s Lies and Half-Truths
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“As the company gears up to upload your private email, calendar, and documents, possibly for eventual resale to advertisers, that’s something worth considering.”
Our reading: As OpenAI gears up to upload users' private email, calendar, and documents, possibly for eventual resale to advertisers, its lack of full candor is something worth considering.
No horizon
Qualifier: as the company gears up to upload your private email, calendar, and documents
Source: OpenAI’s Lies and Half-Truths
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I warned then that other areas would see the same. It looks like science is next.”
Our reading: It looks like science is the next area to be overrun by AI-generated fake submissions, as Clarkesworld was and as Marcus had warned other areas would be.
No horizon
Qualifier: it looks like
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“If science journals and science itself are overrun by LLM-generated garbage, as now seems imminent, my agnostic “I can’t quite tell yet if LLMs will ultimately be of net benefit to society” is going to switch to “shut it down if they can’t fix this problem.””
Our reading: It seems imminent that science journals and science itself will be overrun by LLM-generated garbage.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If science journals and science itself are overrun by LLM-generated garbage, as now seems imminent, my agnostic “I can’t quite tell yet if LLMs will ultimately be of net benefit to society” is going to switch to “shut it down if they can’t fix this problem.””
Our reading: If science is overrun by LLM-generated garbage and the makers cannot fix it, LLMs should be shut down.
No horizon
Qualifier: if science journals are overrun by LLM-generated garbage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“And GenAI might do a lot worse than merely tripling workloads; the total number of articles may radically spike, many of them dubious and a waste of reviewers’ time.”
Our reading: Generative AI may cause the number of submitted scientific articles to spike radically, more than tripling reviewer workloads, with many dubious papers.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In my opinion, every article with ChatGPT remnants should be considered suspect and perhaps retracted, because hallucinations may have filtered in, and both authors and reviewers) were asleep at the switch.”
Our reading: Every scientific article containing ChatGPT remnants should be treated as suspect and perhaps retracted, since hallucinations may have entered it.
No horizon
Qualifier: articles containing ChatGPT remnants
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Literally the only other solution I can envision is to force LLM manufacturers to pay a significant tax to subsidize the journal review system that they are about to destroy.”
Our reading: The only other solution Marcus can envision, besides shutting LLMs down if they can't fix the problem, is to force LLM manufacturers to pay a significant tax to subsidize the journal review system that he says they are about to destroy.
No horizon
Qualifier: the only other solution I can envision
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“I realize now that I may have vastly underestimated the current scope of the problem.”
Our reading: The scope of generative AI's degradation of scientific literature may be much larger than Marcus previously estimated.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“GenAI-created garbage could quickly overwhelm their reviewing processes, leading to a precipitous drop in reputation.”
Our reading: GenAI-created garbage submissions could quickly overwhelm journals' reviewing processes and cause a precipitous drop in their reputation.
No horizon
Source: The Year of the Big-Balled Rat
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I understand the utility in using LLMs for writing and illustration etc, particularly for nonnative speakers, but the long term consequences on science may be severe.”
Our reading: Although using LLMs for writing and illustration has utility, particularly for nonnative speakers, the long-term consequences of LLM use on science may be severe.
No horizon
Qualifier: long term
Source: The Year of the Big-Balled Rat
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“And it may get a lot worse.”
Our reading: Generative AI's damage to science may get a lot worse.
No horizon
Source: The Year of the Big-Balled Rat
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“As ever, LLM developers are unlikely to be held to account.”
Our reading: LLM developers are unlikely to be held accountable for GenAI damage to scientific publishing.
No horizon
Source: The Year of the Big-Balled Rat
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“I am guessing there may be other errors in that paper, too, given the well-known tendency of LLMs to hallucinate in plausible ways that may initially escape notice.”
Our reading: LLMs tend to hallucinate in plausible ways that may escape notice, so the lithium battery paper may contain other errors.
No horizon
Source: The Year of the Big-Balled Rat
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Side note:, this is also a potential five-alarm fire for journal publishers, since for them reputation is all they have got.”
Our reading: GenAI-generated content in papers is a potential major crisis for journal publishers because their value rests on reputation.
No horizon
Source: The Year of the Big-Balled Rat
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“With the possible exception of the quick to rise and quick to fall alleged room-temperature superconductor LK-99, few things I have ever seen have been more hyped than generative AI.”
Our reading: Generative AI is among the most hyped things the author has ever seen, with the possible exception of LK-99.
No horizon
Qualifier: possible exception of LK-99
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“These stories are, of course, all manifestations of a singular problem: that generative artificial intelligence is poison for an internet dependent on algorithms.”
Our reading: The stories described are all manifestations of a single problem: generative AI is 'poison' for an internet dependent on algorithms.
No horizon
Scope: an internet dependent on algorithms
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As a result, they can't be too picky when it comes to the information they choose, meaning that they're more than likely going to depend on openly-available content from the internet, which as I've suggested earlier will become increasingly normalized by the demands of algorithms and the ease of automating the generic content that satisfies them.”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's models will more than likely depend on openly available web content, which will become increasingly normalized and generic.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“This may be why Sam Altman is trying to claim that giant AI models are not the future — because there may not be enough fuel to grow them much further.”
Our reading: There may not be enough training data to grow giant AI models much further, which may be why Sam Altman says they are not the future.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Don't accept that AI "might one day" be great. Demand that it is today, and reject anything less than perfection from men that make billions of dollars shipping you half-finished shit.”
Our reading: People should not accept that AI 'might one day' be great, but should demand that it is great today and reject anything less than perfection from the men making billions shipping half-finished products.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Those who rely on generative AI to create are not creators any more than a person that commissions a portrait is an artist.”
Our reading: Those who rely on generative AI to create are not creators, any more than a person who commissions a portrait is an artist.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“This hasn't stopped spammers from publishing awkward rewrites and summaries of other people's books, and because Amazon's policies don't outright ban AI-generated content, ChatGPT has become an inoperable cancer on the body of the publishing industry.”
Our reading: Because Amazon's policies don't outright ban AI-generated content, ChatGPT has become an 'inoperable cancer on the body of the publishing industry.'
No horizon
Qualifier: because Amazon's policies don't outright ban AI-generated content
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“ChatGPT's DALL-E (images) and Sora (video) products are, as I've noted, limited by the availability of ways to teach them as well as the limits of generative AI itself, meaning that video may continue to dominate the internet as text-based content finds itself crowded out by AI-generated content.”
Our reading: OpenAI's DALL-E and Sora are limited by the availability of ways to teach them and by the limits of generative AI itself, meaning video may continue to dominate the internet as text-based content is crowded out by AI-generated content.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Google might pretend it cares about the quality of search results, but nothing about search's decade-long decline has suggested it’s actually going to do anything.”
Our reading: Google might pretend it cares about search result quality, but nothing about search's decade-long decline has suggested Google is actually going to do anything.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“It's a different flavor of the same problem — these models don't really "know" anything. They're copying other people's homework.”
Our reading: These models don't really 'know' anything; they're 'copying other people's homework.'
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“There's also no way to escape the fact that these hungry robots require legal plagiarism, and any number of copyright assaults could massively slow their progress.”
Our reading: Generative AI models require 'legal plagiarism', and any number of copyright assaults could massively slow their progress.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“And it's slowly killing the internet.”
Our reading: Generative content that games algorithms is slowly killing the internet.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Their eventual goal, in my mind, is to remove as much interaction with the larger internet as possible, summarizing and regurgitating as much as they can so that they can control and monetize the results as much as possible.”
Our reading: In his view, the major platforms aim to minimize interaction with the wider internet by summarizing content with AI so they can control and monetize the results.
No horizon
Qualifier: in my mind
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Yet what's happening to the web is far more sinister than simple greed, but the destruction of the user-generated internet, where executives think they've found a way to replace human beings making cool things with generative monstrosities trained on datasets controlled and monetized by trillion-dollar firms.”
Our reading: What is happening to the web is the destruction of the user-generated internet, in which executives think they have found a way to replace humans making things with generative AI output trained on datasets that trillion-dollar firms control and monetize.
No horizon
Qualifier: executives think they've found a way to replace human-made content
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“The numerous lawsuits against OpenAI could break the back of the company, and while Altman and other AI fantasists may pretend that these models are an intractable path to the future of society, any force that controls (or makes them pay for) the data that they use will kneecap the company and force them to come up with a way to make these models ethically.”
Our reading: The many copyright lawsuits against OpenAI could break the company.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“There could be a future where the majority of web users experience the web through a series of portals, like Arc Search's "browse for me" feature, which visits websites for you and summarizes their information using AI.”
Our reading: Most web users could come to experience the web through AI summarization portals.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As we speak, the battle that platforms are fighting is against generative spam, a cartoonish and obvious threat of outright nonsense, meaningless chum that can and should (and likely will) be stopped.”
Our reading: The battle platforms are currently fighting is against generative spam, obvious outright nonsense that can and should, and likely will, be stopped.
No horizon
Scope: generative spam that is outright nonsense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“It's incredibly difficult to make a model forget information, meaning that there may, at some point, be steps back in the development of models if datasets have to be reverted to previous versions with copyrighted materials removed.”
Our reading: Because models are hard to make forget information, model development may go backwards if datasets have to be reverted to remove copyrighted material.
No horizon
Only if: if datasets must be reverted with copyrighted materials removed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
““We are still a long way from machines that can genuinely understand human language”. Still true, though some have argued there is some superficial understanding.”
Our reading: As of March 2024, machines are still a long way from genuinely understanding human language.
No horizon
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But I still think we need a paradigm shift.”
Our reading: AI needs a paradigm shift beyond current deep learning to reach general intelligence.
No horizon
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Implict through the essay: scaling might not solve the problems not above. Pending/Still true”
Our reading: Scaling might not solve the fundamental problems of deep learning.
No horizon
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“We should never forget that the human brain is perhaps the most complicated system in the known universe; if we are to build something roughly its equal, open-hearted collaboration will be key.”
Our reading: If we are to build something roughly equal to the human brain, which is perhaps the most complicated system in the known universe, open-hearted collaboration will be key.
No horizon
Only if: if we are to build something roughly equal to the human brain
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Likely still a concern, especially with open-source bots that may have less carefully constructed guardrails; there has been at least one chatbot related death.”
Our reading: Harmful chatbot exchanges with vulnerable users are likely still a concern, especially with open-source bots, and at least one death has been linked to a chatbot.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially open-source bots with weaker guardrails
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Scaling the measures Kaplan and his OpenAI colleagues looked at—about predicting words in a sentence—is not tantamount to the kind of deep comprehension true AI would require” Still true, and increasingly acknowledged.”
Our reading: Getting better at next-word prediction through scaling does not amount to the deep comprehension true AI needs, and this is increasingly acknowledged.
No horizon
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Gary Marcus still feels like the field is mostly chasing ladders to the moon.”
Our reading: Marcus still feels the AI field is mostly chasing ladders to the moon.
No horizon
Scope: mostly
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“None of this means we won’t eventually have new innovations, of some sort or another. Or that AGI is impossible.”
Our reading: None of the points in the post mean that new innovations of some sort will not eventually arrive, or that AGI is impossible.
No horizon
Qualifier: of some sort or another
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“We are still far from trustworthy AI.”
Our reading: As of March 2024, AI is still far from trustworthy.
No horizon
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Neurosymbolic might be a promising alternative. Pending/still true”
Our reading: Neurosymbolic AI might be a promising alternative to pure deep learning.
No horizon
Source: Two years later, deep learning is still faced with the same fundamental challenges
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But casting a blind eye to covert racism, apparent copyright infringement, and violent and degrading outputs is not.”
Our reading: OpenAI should not turn a blind eye to covert racism, apparent copyright infringement, and violent or degrading outputs.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s “Own Goal”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Leopards rarely change their spots.”
Our reading: Marcus applies the proverb 'leopards rarely change their spots' to OpenAI, expressing distrust of its character.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s “Own Goal”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The two facts that have come out make it look like they never really intended to follow their own charter.”
Our reading: The revealed facts suggest OpenAI never really intended to follow its charter.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s “Own Goal”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI may fail, or even get dismissed.”
Our reading: Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI may fail or even be dismissed.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s “Own Goal”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Counterparts in other nations should consider doing the same.”
Our reading: Regulators outside the US should consider investigating LLM makers and demanding user logs.
No horizon
Source: Covert racism in LLMs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“LLMs are, as I have been trying to tell you, too stupid to understand concepts like people and race; their fealty to superficial statistics drives this horrific stereotyping .”
Our reading: LLMs cannot understand concepts like people and race, and their reliance on superficial statistics causes racist stereotyping.
No horizon
Source: Covert racism in LLMs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“What Hofman and his collaborators (including the MacArthur Fellow Dan Jurafsky) have documented may already be having real-world impact.”
Our reading: The covert racism documented in LLMs may already be having real-world impact.
No horizon
Source: Covert racism in LLMs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And Google’s debacle shows that guardrails are never easy..”
Our reading: Google's recent debacle shows that building guardrails for LLMs is never easy.
No horizon
Source: Covert racism in LLMs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I would encourage Congress, the EEOC, HUD, the FTC, and others to investigate, and demand user logs and interaction data from the major LLM manufacturers.”
Our reading: Congress, the EEOC, HUD, the FTC and others should investigate covert racism in LLMs and demand user logs and interaction data from the major LLM makers.
No horizon
Source: Covert racism in LLMs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“The potential consequences on the world, given the widespread adoption of LLMs, are massive:”
Our reading: Because LLMs are so widely adopted, the potential consequences of their covert racism for the world are massive.
No horizon
Qualifier: given the widespread adoption of LLMs
Source: Covert racism in LLMs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But the LLM companies should recall their systems until they can find an adequate solution.”
Our reading: LLM companies should recall their systems until they find an adequate solution to covert racism.
No horizon
Qualifier: until an adequate solution to covert racism is found
Source: Covert racism in LLMs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“In my view, humanity has now taken a back seat to money; their choices now seem very directly anchored in a need to generate a massive return, in direct contradiction to their promises to California, to Musk, and to the world.”
Our reading: In Marcus's view, at OpenAI humanity has now taken a back seat to money, and OpenAI's choices now seem very directly anchored in a need to generate a massive return, in direct contradiction to its promises to California, to Musk, and to the world.
No horizon
Qualifier: in my view
Source: The Irony and the Agony of Elon Musk's Lawsuit against OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I honestly think the world would be a better place if it did.”
Our reading: The world would be better if OpenAI returned to its original nonprofit, open, humanity-benefiting mission.
No horizon
Qualifier: if OpenAI returned to what it was
Source: The Irony and the Agony of Elon Musk's Lawsuit against OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“We all want courts to administer justice, but in the end laws may or may not be enough to get OpenAI to honor its initial promises.”
Our reading: In the end, laws may or may not be enough to get OpenAI to honor its initial promises.
No horizon
Qualifier: in the end
Source: The Irony and the Agony of Elon Musk's Lawsuit against OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“Humanity stands to lose if the lawsuit fails.”
Our reading: If Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI fails, humanity stands to lose.
No horizon
Only if: if Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI fails
Source: The Irony and the Agony of Elon Musk's Lawsuit against OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Courtroom quarrels are likely to focus on documentation of their agreement, rather than the real issue: which is whether OpenAI is still built around helping all of humanity.”
Our reading: Courtroom disputes in Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI will likely focus on documentation of the agreement rather than whether OpenAI still serves all of humanity.
No horizon
Source: The Irony and the Agony of Elon Musk's Lawsuit against OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“And anyone making deals with Altman would be wise to read it.”
Our reading: Anyone making deals with Sam Altman should read Musk's lawsuit.
No horizon
Qualifier: anyone making deals with Altman
Source: Elon Musk sues OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I won’t predict who will win, but I will say that Elon has a point.”
Our reading: Elon Musk has a point in his lawsuit against OpenAI, Altman and Brockman, though Marcus declines to predict who will win.
No horizon
Qualifier: declines to predict who will win the lawsuit
Source: Elon Musk sues OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Yet another reason why we should never trust today’s chatbots.”
Our reading: People should never trust today's chatbots.
No horizon
Qualifier: today's chatbots