Claims that can’t be checked, page 30 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 30 of 37: claims 2901 to 3000 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Without question the finding of greater facility by experts on all five tasks deserves followup with a larger group of experts, and a single preregistered test with no Bonferroni correction.”
Our reading: The finding that experts did better on all five tasks should be followed up with a larger group of experts and a single preregistered test without Bonferroni correction.
No horizon
Qualifier: larger group of experts
Source: Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Anyone reading this article, OpenAI included, ought to be pretty worried by these results.”
Our reading: Readers, including OpenAI, ought to be pretty worried by the accuracy results in the paper.
No horizon
Source: Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“There is zero reason to get much comfort from this threshold analysis.”
Our reading: There is no reason to take much comfort from OpenAI's threshold analysis.
No horizon
Source: Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But here there is an obvious a priori test: does using an LLM make people more accurate? That’s what the whole paper is about. You don’t need a Bonferroni correction for that, and shouldn’t be using it.”
Our reading: Because the paper has an obvious a priori hypothesis, a Bonferroni correction is unnecessary and should not have been used.
No horizon
Qualifier: there is an obvious a priori hypothesis
Source: Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Good peer reviewers should push not only on sound statistical practice but also on important real-world questions like whether open-source models without guardrails (or with guardrails removed, which is easy to do in open-source models) might be more useful to bad actors than commercial models with guardrails.”
Our reading: Peer reviewers should press on statistical practice and on whether open-source models without guardrails are more useful to bad actors than guardrailed commercial models.
No horizon
Source: Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“Crucially, if even one malicious expert gets over the hump and creates a deadly pathogen; that’s huge. The results make it look like that sort of thing might be possible.”
Our reading: If even one malicious expert uses an LLM to get over the threshold and create a deadly pathogen that would be hugely consequential, and the study results suggest that might be possible.
No horizon
Only if: if even one malicious expert succeeds
Source: Diving deep into OpenAI’s new study on LLM’s and bioweapons
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Looks like Google’s brand-new Bard image generation software is going to keep even more IP lawyers gainfully employed this year…”
Our reading: Google's Bard image generation software will likely generate more IP legal work in 2024.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“These physical (and in one case conceptual) errors are of a piece with hallucinations and near-plagiarism, too.”
Our reading: The physical errors (and one conceptual error) in the Midjourney image discussed in the post are of a piece with hallucinations and near-plagiarism.
No horizon
Scope: the errors in the Midjourney image discussed in the post
Source: One GenAI image; Ten Errors
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“I’ve been worrying about that emphasis on the local at the expense of the global for close to 40 years, and still don’t see a great solution to it.”
Our reading: Marcus says he has been worrying about AI's emphasis on the local at the expense of the global for close to 40 years and still does not see a great solution to it.
No horizon
Qualifier: in his own assessment
Source: One GenAI image; Ten Errors
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Valuations for OpenAI and some of its peers may drop, sharply.”
Our reading: Valuations of OpenAI and some peers may drop sharply.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Fifth, although the underlying technology initially improved rapidly, leading to a lot of excitement, it may soon, perhaps this year or next, reach a plateau.”
Our reading: LLM technology may reach a plateau, perhaps in 2024 or 2025.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“It would not be surprising if OpenAI spends a huge part of its energy this year defending lawsuits.”
Our reading: OpenAI may spend a huge part of its energy in 2024 defending lawsuits.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Sixth, although ChatGPT has already widely been adopted by computer programmers and perhaps others, and been explored by a great many Chief Information Officers and the like, it is still not clear that there will be enough adoption to justify the company’s stratospheric valuations.”
Our reading: It is unclear that ChatGPT adoption will be enough to justify OpenAI's very high valuation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“External investors pouring money into the company (most recently at a valuation rumored to be $86 billion dollars) may find themselves disappointed, unclear on how profits to justify those valuations could ever be made.”
Our reading: External investors putting money into OpenAI, most recently at a rumored $86 billion valuation, may find themselves disappointed and unclear on how profits to justify those valuations could ever be made.
No horizon
Qualifier: valuation rumored to be $86 billion
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Large language models such as ChatGPT may quickly become commodities; we can expect price wars, and profits may continue to be elusive, or modest at best.”
Our reading: Large language models such as ChatGPT may quickly become commodities, price wars can be expected, and profits may continue to be elusive or modest at best.
No horizon
Qualifier: we can expect price wars
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Regardless of how the internal investigation comes out, 2024 is a looking a lot more challenging, both for Altman and for the company.”
Our reading: 2024 looks likely to be a much more challenging year for OpenAI and Sam Altman.
No horizon
Qualifier: regardless of internal investigation outcome
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The request is likely in violation both of common law and of international conventions around intellectual property such as the Berne convention, and publishers, writers, and artists have every right to fight it tooth and nail.”
Our reading: OpenAI's request for a copyright exemption is likely in violation of common law and international IP conventions like Berne.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“(Regulation in the EU and elsewhere may force OpenAI to confront problems with their software around unreliability, privacy, its off-label use to generate misinformation, and in the service of cybercrime, and so on).”
Our reading: EU and other regulation may force OpenAI to confront unreliability, privacy, misinformation, and cybercrime problems.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Progress depends heavily on having vast amounts of data, and it is likely that most of the high quality data sources have already been tapped.”
Our reading: Most high-quality data sources for LLM training have likely already been tapped.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“First, lawsuits against the company are likely to come fast and furious.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely face a rapid flurry of lawsuits in 2024.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“It’s also worth noting that OpenAI is not alone is all of this; many other generative AI companies are likely to encounter intense legal and public pressure this year, around potential cases of copyright infringement.”
Our reading: Many generative AI companies are likely to face intense legal and public pressure over copyright in 2024.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“This call could easily put a further strain on the company, and perhaps lead to other uncomfortable revelations if California chooses to investigate.”
Our reading: Public Citizen's call could strain OpenAI and, if California investigates, lead to uncomfortable revelations.
No horizon
Only if: if California chooses to investigate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Here’s my own guess: OpenAI, backed by Microsoft’s trillions, and now deeply tied to Microsoft, will survive, but the bloom will fade from the rose.”
Our reading: Marcus guesses that OpenAI, backed by and deeply tied to Microsoft, will survive, but that the bloom will fade from the rose.
No horizon
Qualifier: my own guess
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If a plateau is reached in the near-term, a lot of the enthusiasm may dissipate, and investors may start to temper their investments.”
Our reading: If LLMs plateau in the near term, enthusiasm may dissipate and investors may temper their investments.
No horizon
Only if: if a plateau is reached in the near-term
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“A lot of what has driven excitement about OpenAI has been a sense of unlimited potential. That could soon change.”
Our reading: The perception of OpenAI's unlimited potential could soon change.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Moreover more data tends to go with bigger models that more expensive to operate; the increases in cost may not be accompanied by big enough gains in performance, at some point leading the big companies to step off the gas.”
Our reading: The rising costs of bigger models trained on more data may not be accompanied by big enough gains in performance, at some point leading the big companies to step off the gas.
No horizon
Scope: bigger models that go with more data are more expensive to operate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Ninth, internal tensions are likely to remain.”
Our reading: Internal tensions at OpenAI are likely to persist in 2024.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Given how many different kinds of copyrighted works they are drawing on, and from how many vendors (many media outlets, many book publishers, many film studios, etc), and given how commercial their usage is of those sources, the licensing costs may quickly mount.”
Our reading: OpenAI's licensing costs for copyrighted material may quickly mount.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Second, battles over copyright materials may wind up cutting massively into profits, and may be unavoidable.”
Our reading: Copyright battles may cut massively into OpenAI's profits and may be unavoidable.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“In some ways, the most telling example in the earlier newsletter was from Dave Andress (which Vicki Bier shared with us), highlighting the fact that image generators still don’t really understand how the world works:”
Our reading: Image generators still do not really understand how the world works.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Sometimes GenAI used for source attribution will work, other times it will probably yield outrageous goofs, same as we have seen over and over in other domains.”
Our reading: Generative AI used for source attribution will sometimes work but will probably sometimes produce outrageous errors.
No horizon
Qualifier: used for source attribution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Unfortunately, errors of discomprehension may soon be even more worrisome in a new context: war.”
Our reading: AI errors of discomprehension may soon become more worrisome as AI is used in war.
No horizon
Qualifier: in military contexts
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Here is a lovely and instructive set of examples just posted on X by the data scientist Colin Fraser, which serve to remind us that the beauty of LLM’s remains skin deep:”
Our reading: The apparent quality of LLMs is only skin deep.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“When you have terabytes of images in your training set you can generate really cool images, but that doesn’t guarantee that your system will understand the relation between those images and the world.”
Our reading: Training on terabytes of images enables impressive image generation but does not guarantee the system understands how images relate to the world.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Not sure that’s a great idea, in an era in which AI still can’t quite sort out what’s happening with an elephant on a crowded beach.”
Our reading: Marcus is not sure that hooking AI up to military applications such as drones is a great idea in an era in which AI still can't quite sort out what's happening with an elephant on a crowded beach.
No horizon
Qualifier: not sure
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Output similarity and how well can it be resolved may well be central in tons of upcoming lawsuits, and as such the outcome could have a huge impact on the future economics of generative AI.”
Our reading: Output similarity may be central in many upcoming lawsuits, and their outcome could greatly affect the economics of generative AI.
No horizon
Source: No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Gary Marcus still thinks that licensing is the best and only way to go.”
Our reading: Gary Marcus still thinks that licensing is the best and only way to go in dealing with generative AI's copyright problems.
No horizon
Qualifier: stated as Marcus's continuing view ('still thinks')
Source: No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“We further speculated that smaller artists might be particularly vulnerable to being infringed; if the system made Mario, everyone might recognize that; if the system ripped off a lesser-known photographer, the user might fail to recognize the original source.”
Our reading: Marcus and Southen speculated that smaller artists might be particularly vulnerable to being infringed by GenAI, because a user might recognize a copy of Mario but might fail to recognize the original source when the system rips off a lesser-known photographer.
No horizon
Qualifier: presented as speculation
Source: No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“The moral of this story, like the moral of so many others I have told, is that almost nothing in AI is truly trivial.”
Our reading: Almost nothing in AI is truly trivial.
No horizon
Source: No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“(We also speculate that any such classifier would sometimes “false alarm” and misidentify some genuinely new materials as copyrighted.)”
Our reading: Marcus and Southen speculate that any such classifier for detecting copyrighted generated images would sometimes false-alarm and misidentify some genuinely new materials as copyrighted.
No horizon
Qualifier: presented as speculation
Source: No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Fundamentally, Southen and I had argued that our images were evidence not only that some popular GenAI systems had trained on copyrighted images (nobody is really disputing this) but also that users might accidentally find themselves in trouble, because the GenAI systems don’t list sources, and don’t warn users about possible infringment.”
Our reading: Users of popular GenAI systems might accidentally get into legal trouble because the systems do not list sources or warn about possible infringement.
No horizon
Qualifier: because systems don't list sources or warn about infringement
Source: No, multimodal ChatGPT is not going to “trivially” solve Generative AI's copyright problems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“While I agree with Sasso that George Carlin would indeed have been a voice we could use in 2024 if he were not dead, I do not believe that any “need” for a particular artist’s voice justifies creating an abominable digital clone with someone else’s words in its mouth.”
Our reading: Zitron does not believe that any 'need' for a particular artist's voice justifies creating an abominable digital clone with someone else's words in its mouth.
No horizon
Qualifier: I do not believe
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“The voice of Dudesy may indeed be AI-generated, but I would wager a human being is either writing or heavily editing a script.”
Our reading: Although Dudesy's voice may be AI-generated, a human is probably writing or heavily editing its scripts.
No horizon
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“An AI cannot experience time, frustration, jealousy, yearning, sickness, fatigue or any of the emotions that play into or impede creativity.”
Our reading: An AI cannot experience time, frustration, jealousy, yearning, sickness, fatigue or any of the emotions that play into or impede creativity.
No horizon
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Dudesy’s “state of the art entertainment AI” is far more likely someone typing stuff into a chatbot and “surprising” two comedians with things like “getting a colonoscopy” and “a fake autobiography of Tom Hanks where he says curses.””
Our reading: Dudesy's claimed 'state of the art entertainment AI' is more likely just someone typing prompts into a chatbot.
No horizon
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“And I believe there are an alarming amount of people with so little soul, so little being, and so little personality behind their work that chatGPT does seem magical because — just like them — it doesn't have any of its own ideas.”
Our reading: Zitron believes an alarming number of people have so little soul, being and personality behind their work that ChatGPT seems magical to them, because, like them, it has no ideas of its own.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“What I think is far more likely is that “Dudesy” is a collaboration between Sasso, Kultgen, and an unnamed artificial intelligence company, and the result is equal parts despicable and ridiculous.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks it is far more likely, compared with the alternatives he lists, that Dudesy is a collaboration between Sasso, Kultgen and an unnamed AI company, and that the result is equal parts despicable and ridiculous.
No horizon
Qualifier: what I think
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“You cannot create a new George Carlin, as he was created not only by the precise history and events that he participated in, but the relationships he had with other humans in parity with his own thoughts and emotions. These are not things that are simulated or simulatable.”
Our reading: You cannot create a new George Carlin, because he was shaped by the precise history and events he took part in and his relationships with other people alongside his own thoughts and emotions, and these cannot be simulated.
No horizon
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This is entirely my intuition, but AI-Carlin’s jokes feel like they were generated by feeding transcripts of his real work into a generative AI, with the resulting CarlinGPT bot prompted by Sasso and Kultgen and its outputs heavily edited.”
Our reading: By his intuition, the AI Carlin jokes were likely made by feeding Carlin transcripts into a generative AI, prompted by the hosts and heavily edited.
No horizon
Qualifier: intuition only
Source: Empty Laughter
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If the State of California chooses to investigate, one possible outcome could be that the State of California could force OpenAI to dissolve the nonprofit parent, making a distribution, conceivably measured in the billions of dollars, to an external charity (focused in whole or in part on AI).”
Our reading: If the State of California chooses to investigate, one possible outcome could be that it forces OpenAI to dissolve its nonprofit parent and make a distribution, conceivably measured in the billions of dollars, to an external charity focused in whole or in part on AI.
No horizon
Only if: if the State of California chooses to investigate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“The only thing we can really say for sure is that the litigation is going to be wild.”
Our reading: Copyright litigation over generative AI image and text outputs will be wild.
No horizon
Source: DALL-E’s New Guardrails: Fast, Furious, and Far from Airtight
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If the current batch of AI companies cannot create AI that performs reasonably well based on public domain sources and whatever they are prepared to pay to license, they should go back to the drawing board—and figure out how to build software that doesn’t have a plagiarism problem—rather than fleecing artists, writers, and other content providers.”
Our reading: If the current batch of AI companies cannot create AI that performs reasonably well based on public domain sources and whatever they are prepared to pay to license, they should go back to the drawing board and figure out how to build software that doesn't have a plagiarism problem, rather than fleecing artists, writers, and other content providers.
No horizon
Only if: if the current batch of AI companies cannot create AI that performs reasonably well based on public domain sources and whatever they are prepared to pay to license
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Covering all those claims with the accidental infringing machine they have created would be a nightmare. The only chance they have of becoming the zillionaires they aspire to be is to rewrite the rules.”
Our reading: Indemnifying customers against copyright claims would be a nightmare for OpenAI, and its only chance of great riches is rewriting copyright rules.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Streamers, for example, license everything they stream; there is literally no conceptual reason why OpenAI could not do the same. They just don’t want to.”
Our reading: There is no conceptual reason OpenAI could not license the commercial works it uses, as streamers do; it simply does not want to.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“That’s a flaw in the software, not society’s responsibility.”
Our reading: The plagiarism tendency is a software flaw that society should not be responsible for accommodating.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“if UK or other lawmakers succumb to their nonsense arguments, and rewrite existing rules for the benefit of GenAI, abandoning principles that go back to the time of the printing press, there will be momentary jubilation for many, and OpenAI will (maybe, if the GPU costs and unreliability problems don’t otherwise kill them, two big ifs) get rich.”
Our reading: If lawmakers rewrite copyright rules to benefit GenAI, OpenAI may get rich, provided GPU costs and unreliability problems do not kill it.
No horizon
Only if: if lawmakers rewrite copyright rules for GenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Indeed, as Southen and I pointed out yesterday in the IEEE Spectrum, the tendency towards potential infringement, in current AI looks like maybe it gets worse in bigger models.”
Our reading: The tendency of current AI toward potential infringement may get worse in bigger models.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Reid Southen and I continued our experiments, and wrote a long paper about what we found, and why they may pose serious problems both for users and developers that are difficult to fix.”
Our reading: What Marcus and Southen found in their experiments with generative AI image systems may pose serious problems, difficult to fix, for both users and developers.
No horizon
Scope: both for users and developers
Source: The potential GenAI copyright infringement plot thickens
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“In all likelihood, the New York Times lawsuit is just the first of many.”
Our reading: The New York Times lawsuit against OpenAI is likely the first of many copyright lawsuits.
No horizon
Source: Things are about to get a lot worse for Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“My guess is that none of this can easily be fixed.”
Our reading: The copyright, provenance, and transparency problems of generative AI probably cannot be easily fixed.
No horizon
Source: Things are about to get a lot worse for Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“A good system should give the user a manifest of sources; current systems don’t.”
Our reading: Generative AI systems should give users a manifest of sources.
No horizon
Source: Things are about to get a lot worse for Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Users may not know when they produce any given image whether they are infringing.”
Our reading: Users of generative AI may not know whether a given image they produce is infringing.
No horizon
Source: Things are about to get a lot worse for Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“We will publish a full report next week, but it is already clear that what we are finding poses serious challenges for generative AI.”
Our reading: Experimental findings on copyright reproduction pose serious challenges for generative AI.
No horizon
Source: Things are about to get a lot worse for Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And OpenAI faces further risks.”
Our reading: OpenAI faces further risks.
No horizon
Source: Things are about to get a lot worse for Generative AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“It also suggests that Midjourney has been trained on high-resolution copyright images, to which they may or may not have a license.”
Our reading: The evidence suggests Midjourney was trained on high-resolution copyrighted images, which it may or may not have a license for.
No horizon
Qualifier: licensing status unknown
Source: An artist fights back, and Midjourney has embarrassed themselves
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Sure looks like automated, digital plagiarism to me.”
Our reading: To Marcus, Midjourney's output closely resembling copyrighted film stills sure looks like automated, digital plagiarism.
No horizon
Qualifier: sure looks like ... to me
Source: An artist fights back, and Midjourney has embarrassed themselves
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“It is not inconceivable that AI-generated propaganda could be significantly intensifying the scale and impact of such a campaign.”
Our reading: It is not inconceivable that AI-generated propaganda could be significantly intensifying the scale and impact of a possible foreign (e.g., Russian) active-measures campaign to destabilize the United States through social media posts.
No horizon
Qualifier: not inconceivable that... could (double hedge; raised only as a possibility)
Source: Are social media and coordinated misinformation campaigns fomenting extremism?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“The algorithm may be fine when it is directed at dancing bears, but when directed at the daily news, it is likely doing serious damage to our ability to co-exist as humans.”
Our reading: TikTok's recommendation algorithm, when applied to daily news, is likely doing serious damage to people's ability to co-exist.
No horizon
Qualifier: when directed at the daily news
Source: Are social media and coordinated misinformation campaigns fomenting extremism?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“TikTok has no interest in showing anyone a balanced or statistically representative view of the world.”
Our reading: TikTok has no interest in showing users a balanced or statistically representative view of the world.
No horizon
Source: Are social media and coordinated misinformation campaigns fomenting extremism?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
““Going beyond human knowledge” is a bit oversold here.”
Our reading: The claim that FunSearch went 'beyond human knowledge' is a bit oversold.
No horizon
Qualifier: a bit
Source: Sorry, but FunSearch probably isn’t a milestone in scientific discovery
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“As clever as FunSearch is, it’s unlikely to be a major factor in solving cancer or making lightweight batteries.”
Our reading: FunSearch is unlikely to be a major factor in solving cancer or making lightweight batteries.
No horizon
Source: Sorry, but FunSearch probably isn’t a milestone in scientific discovery
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But then Google DeepMind’s PR team oversold the paper, claiming e.g., that they had “solved a notoriously hard challenge in computing” and ending with this exuberant but immensely speculative set of claims:”
Our reading: Google DeepMind's PR team oversold the FunSearch paper, ending with an exuberant but immensely speculative set of claims.
No horizon
Source: Sorry, but FunSearch probably isn’t a milestone in scientific discovery
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And the solution probably isn’t all that general.”
Our reading: The FunSearch solution probably isn't all that general.
No horizon
Qualifier: probably
Source: Sorry, but FunSearch probably isn’t a milestone in scientific discovery
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“It shouldn’t surprise anyone that some venture capitalists worship a machine that can create soulless facsimiles of other people’s ideas.”
Our reading: It should not surprise anyone that some venture capitalists worship a machine that can create soulless facsimiles of other people's ideas.
No horizon
Scope: some venture capitalists
Source: Software Is Beating The World
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Generative excites them because it allows them to LARP in the creative arts without the troublesome task of learning or doing something.”
Our reading: Effective accelerationists are excited by generative AI because it lets them pretend to do creative work without learning or doing anything.
No horizon
Source: Software Is Beating The World
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“They see ChatGPT and Midjourney as ample replacements for writers and artists because they fundamentally lack any creative energy, existing as joyless vessels hoarding more capital and attention in the hopes it makes them forget that they’ve fundamentally created nothing.”
Our reading: Advocates of growth-at-all-costs regard ChatGPT and Midjourney as adequate replacements for writers and artists because they themselves lack creativity.
No horizon
Source: Software Is Beating The World
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I will give the last word to Filip Piekniewski, who did the right test: try something that isn’t in the vast corpus, that requires real reasoning, and see how it runs…”
Our reading: Filip Piekniewski's test of Gemini, which tried something not in the vast training corpus that requires real reasoning and checked how it ran, was the right test.
No horizon
Scope: Piekniewski's particular test of Gemini
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The video is almost never the true story.”
Our reading: Tech demo videos almost never tell the true story.
No horizon
Scope: tech demo videos in general, judged as a tech industry veteran
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Don’t let the PR fool you.”
Our reading: People should not be fooled by Google's PR about Gemini.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The fact that Google, with all its resources, did NOT blow away GPT-4 could be telling.”
Our reading: The fact that Google, with all its resources, did not blow away GPT-4 could be telling about whether LLMs are close to a plateau.
No horizon
Qualifier: Google, with all its resources, did not blow away GPT-4
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If the Board was making a step towards bringing them back to their original mission, of AI for human interest rather than for profit, we should be praising them, not burying them.”
Our reading: If the OpenAI board was trying to return OpenAI to its original mission of AI for human interest rather than profit, it should be praised, not condemned.
No horizon
Qualifier: if the board was trying to return OpenAI to its original mission
Source: “Not consistently candid”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If he was already working on the chip deal in May at the Senate, that should have been disclosed, too.”
Our reading: If Altman was already working on the Rain chip deal when he testified to the Senate in May 2023, he should have disclosed it.
No horizon
Qualifier: if he was already working on the Rain chip deal in May 2023
Source: “Not consistently candid”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The more that comes out, the less likely any of these three theories seems to be correct.”
Our reading: The popular theories of the OpenAI board's firing of Altman (D'Angelo conflict of interest, an incompetent board, Toner as a communist) look less and less likely to be correct as more information comes out.
No horizon
Source: “Not consistently candid”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“It may well be worth tens of millions of dollars; even for Altman, that’s not trivial.”
Our reading: Altman's indirect stake in OpenAI through Y Combinator may be worth tens of millions of dollars.
No horizon
Source: “Not consistently candid”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Altman gave up his board seat. If there was really nothing that even looked like legitimate beef against him, I doubt he would have conceded this.”
Our reading: Marcus doubts that Altman would have given up his OpenAI board seat if there had really been nothing against him that even looked like a legitimate grievance.
No horizon
Only if: if there was really nothing that even looked like legitimate beef against him
Source: “Not consistently candid”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“OpenAI characterizes Altman’s indirect stake as a “small investment”, but OpenAI and Altman should nonetheless disclose the value of that stake, My guess is that it is at least worth many tens of millions, at the new $86B valuation, possibly more, more than many people will earn in a lifetime.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Altman should disclose the value of Altman's indirect stake, which Marcus guesses is worth at least many tens of millions of dollars at the $86B valuation.
No horizon
Qualifier: at the $86B valuation
Source: “Not consistently candid”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“By any reasonable measure they have strayed, very far, from that mission. That’s primarily on Sam.”
Our reading: By any reasonable measure, OpenAI has strayed very far from its founding mission of safe, broadly beneficial, openly shared AI, and that is primarily Altman's responsibility.
No horizon
Qualifier: by any reasonable measure
Source: “Not consistently candid”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Musk’s insistence on creating and owning a Large Language Model (rather than connecting to another LLM like, say, Snap, a company that has had exactly one profitable quarter) means that he is responsible for driving down costs rather than an external vendor, something that he has proven to be incapable of doing without destroying everything in the process.”
Our reading: Owning its own LLM makes Musk responsible for cutting Grok's costs, which he has proven unable to do without destruction.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Even if it doesn’t, it will likely further pollute an already-murky pool of information, the previously-mentioned generative inbreeding churning out useless nonsense that will, in turn, be posted by his gormless fans, which will in turn train Grok further.”
Our reading: Grok will likely further pollute X's information pool via a feedback loop of generated nonsense retraining it.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“While one might argue that attaching Grok to the website might increase its value, it’s unlikely to do so by much.”
Our reading: Attaching Grok to X is unlikely to increase its value by much.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If he believes that Grok can be a competitor to the legacy media companies he’s claiming are trying to kill his website, he may very well see this as an opportunity to “fight back” and add a section to the website “powered by Grok” that generates publicly-available misinformation at a massive scale.”
Our reading: If Musk believes Grok can compete with the legacy media companies he claims are trying to kill X, he may very well see this as a chance to 'fight back' and add a 'powered by Grok' section to X that generates publicly-available misinformation at massive scale.
No horizon
Only if: if Musk believes Grok can compete with legacy media companies he claims are trying to kill his website
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“This is, of course, an extremely obvious thing to avoid, meaning that Musk is likely to try it based on his outright hostility toward journalists.”
Our reading: Musk is likely to have Grok publish content directly on X despite the legal risk.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Musk could, of course, merge the companies, but doing so would — much like training Grok on xAI’s data — corrupt xAi in the same way that it has corrupted Musk.”
Our reading: If Musk merges the companies (X and xAI), doing so would corrupt xAI in the same way that it has corrupted Musk, much like training Grok on xAI's data.
No horizon
Only if: if Musk merges X and xAI
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Grok is financial cancer for an already-dying company, and may precipitate the actual death of Twitter — or, as Musk has threatened in the past, its bankruptcy.”
Our reading: Grok is a financial drain that may precipitate Twitter's death or bankruptcy.
No horizon
Source: Elon's Gordian Knot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“I submit that we are already part way there.”
Our reading: We are already partway toward a technopolar world where Big Tech companies rather than nations run the world.
No horizon
Source: Critical national security questions should not be decided unilaterally by unelected tech leaders
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It shouldn’t be entirely up to them to decide. But at present, it is.”
Our reading: Decisions about open-releasing powerful AI should not be entirely up to Meta's leadership, though currently they are.
No horizon
Source: Critical national security questions should not be decided unilaterally by unelected tech leaders
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“With so much at stake, all of this demands careful public discussion. What we should not have is a couple of tech lords sitting around deciding for us.”
Our reading: Whether to open-source powerful AI should be decided through careful public discussion rather than by a few tech leaders.
No horizon
Source: Critical national security questions should not be decided unilaterally by unelected tech leaders
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Open-source software has been fabulous for the internet, but open-source AI might, for example, be used to design bioweapons.”
Our reading: Open-source AI might be used to design bioweapons.
No horizon
Source: Critical national security questions should not be decided unilaterally by unelected tech leaders
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The fact that some regulation is bad doesn’t magically mean we should exempt the AI industry; it means we should craft our regulation wisely.”
Our reading: The AI industry should not be exempted from regulation; regulation should be crafted wisely instead.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I hope that some form of compromise survives, placing genuine requirements on (at least) the most capable foundation models, perhaps empowering a scientific committee to adjust the criterion over time, factoring in size, changes in technology, newly identified risks, the nature of deployment, and so forth.”
Our reading: The EU AI Act compromise should place genuine requirements on at least the most capable foundation models, possibly with a scientific committee adjusting the criterion over time.
No horizon