Claims that can’t be checked, page 23 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 23 of 37: claims 2201 to 2300 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“One key assumption Schmidt makes is that AI will be eventually worth essentially arbitrary environmental costs. For now, this seems very premature.”
Our reading: For now, Schmidt's assumption that AI will eventually be worth essentially arbitrary environmental costs seems very premature.
No horizon
Qualifier: for now
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“All of the major potential virtues are quite speculative.”
Our reading: All the major potential benefits of AI are quite speculative.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Evidence of research utility does not establish the eventual scale or net societal value of the potential benefits [e1].
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Schmidt needless to say has a large stake in the companies in building in AI, and I think we need to take those potential conflicts of interest seriously.”
Our reading: Schmidt's large stake in AI companies creates potential conflicts of interest that should be taken seriously when weighing his views on AI and climate.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Chatbots and movie synthesis machines (perhaps the most energetically costly systems) are fun, maybe even amazing - but I don’t think we should be risking our planet for them.”
Our reading: We should not risk the planet for chatbots and video synthesis systems.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It shouldn’t be up to a few billionaires to decide, and profit-driven companies with unelected leaders shouldn’t decide on their own, for all of us. Society has to have a vote here.”
Our reading: Decisions on AI's environmental bet should not be left to billionaires or profit-driven companies; society must have a vote.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The case that AI will do serious harm to the environment if we continue on the current path is actually much stronger.”
Our reading: The case that AI will do serious harm to the environment if we continue on the current path is much stronger than the case for AI's putative benefits.
No horizon
Qualifier: if we continue on the current path
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“For the love of all that is beautiful on this planet, I hope that we think extremely carefully before going literally all in with the Earth on an unproven technology.”
Our reading: Marcus hopes we will think extremely carefully before going literally all in with the Earth on an unproven technology (AI).
No horizon
Qualifier: worded as a hope
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The case for techno-utopia , especially with current technology —which struggles with reasoning in open-ended domains, especially in rare situations with smaller amounts of specific data — is so far very abstract and vague.”
Our reading: Current AI struggles with reasoning in open-ended domains, especially rare data-poor situations, and the case for techno-utopia is so far abstract and vague.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially in rare situations with smaller amounts of specific data
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We need independent scientists asking about whether the best (rather than simply most conveniently at hand) technologies would be used, and what the odds are of success, and the costs are of any major bets, so we can make a careful decision about what it is worth it.”
Our reading: Independent scientists should assess the technologies, odds of success, and costs of major AI bets before they are made.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Ultimately, we can’t, or at least shouldn’t, place massive bets like these without transparency and accountability.”
Our reading: Massive bets on AI's environmental costs should not be made without transparency and accountability.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“GenAI, which is consuming all the power, probably isn’t going to do a whole lot for addressing climate change, when it can’t even reason reliably about river crossing problems.”
Our reading: GenAI, which is consuming all the power, probably isn't going to do a whole lot for addressing climate change, given that it can't even reason reliably about river crossing problems.
No horizon
Qualifier: probably
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“That is, to be frank, extremely bad. These are estimates, but even if they were doubled, these would not be particularly exciting numbers.”
Our reading: The estimated roughly $300 million a year OpenAI makes from business users is extremely bad, and even doubled would not be particularly exciting.
No horizon
Qualifier: these are estimates
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“In any case, OpenAI will likely prevail and raise this round from a cadre of investors that will have to invest a minimum of $250 million to put money behind a company that has never turned a profit, that has no path to profitability, and has yet to create a truly meaningful product outside of Sam Altman's marketing expertise.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely succeed in raising its current funding round.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“If OpenAI — which dominates with, I’d wager, at least a 30% market share — is only making $1 billion a year from selling access to its models, and at this stage in the massively-inflated hype bubble, there may not even be $10 billion of annual revenue from companies integrating generative AI into their products.”
Our reading: If OpenAI, which he wagers has at least a 30% market share, makes only $1 billion a year from model access, there may not even be $10 billion of annual revenue from companies integrating generative AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: if OpenAI has at least a 30% share (his wager) and makes only $1 billion a year from model access
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“At this point, it’s hard to see how OpenAI survives.”
Our reading: It is hard to see how OpenAI survives.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If that’s the case, then OpenAI has to raise prices. Also, Microsoft has to raise prices. And that will likely spook those who have gotten used to these subsidized prices — which I discussed in The Subprime AI Crisis a few weeks ago — and they’ll start to disentangle themselves from generative AI.”
Our reading: If OpenAI is underpricing to scale, OpenAI and Microsoft will have to raise prices, which will likely drive customers away from generative AI.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI is deliberately underpricing its models to scale
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“OpenAI's cloud business — meaning other companies connecting their services to OpenAI's API — is remarkably small, to the point that it suggests there's weaknesses in the generative AI industry writ large.”
Our reading: OpenAI's API business is remarkably small, suggesting weakness across the generative AI industry.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This suggests a fundamental weakness in the revenue model behind GPT, as well as a fundamental weakness in the generative artificial intelligence market writ large.”
Our reading: OpenAI's thin API business indicates fundamental weakness in GPT's revenue model and the generative AI market.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“If I’m right, we’re watching venture capitalists and companies like Microsoft burn tens of billions of dollars to power the next generation of products that nobody gives a shit about.”
Our reading: If he is right, VCs and Microsoft are burning tens of billions on generative AI products nobody cares about.
No horizon
Qualifier: if he is right
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“yet the company says that it expects to make $11.6 billion in 2025 and $100 billion by 2029, a statement so egregious that I am surprised it's not some kind of financial crime to say it out loud.”
Our reading: OpenAI's projections of $11.6B revenue in 2025 and $100B by 2029 are egregiously unrealistic.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“OpenAI is a disaster in the making, and behind it sits a potentially bigger, nastier disaster — a lack of any real strength in the generative AI market.”
Our reading: OpenAI is a disaster in the making, and the generative AI market lacks real strength.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“While 10 million paying subscribers might seem like a lot, "ChatGPT" is effectively to generative AI what "Google" is to search. Ten million people paying for this is table stakes.”
Our reading: Because ChatGPT is to generative AI what Google is to search, ten million paying subscribers is table stakes.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“You see, ChatGPT Plus is not a great business.”
Our reading: ChatGPT Plus is not a great business.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“This round is a farce — a group delusion, one borne of one man's uncanny ability to convince clueless idiots that he has some unique insight”
Our reading: OpenAI's funding round is a farce and a group delusion driven by Sam Altman's persuasiveness.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“As a result of these numbers, I have major concerns about the viability of OpenAI's business, and the generative AI market at large.”
Our reading: Because of these API revenue numbers, he has major concerns about the viability of OpenAI's business and of the generative AI market at large.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“These aren’t the actions of a company that’s on the forefront of anything — they’re desperate moves made by desperate people burning the candle at both ends.”
Our reading: OpenAI's rushing of products like o1 is not the action of a company at the forefront but desperate moves by desperate people burning the candle at both ends.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“After all, Anthropic is facing exactly the same problem, and is on course to lose $2.7 billion in 2024 on $800 million in revenue, which makes me think the likelihood of this being a quick fix is extremely low.”
Our reading: Because Anthropic faces the same problem and is on course to lose $2.7 billion in 2024 on $800 million in revenue, he thinks the likelihood of a quick fix for OpenAI's costs is extremely low.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“in simpler terms, that OpenAI will likely raise $6.5 billion in funding, and then have to do so again in short order, likely in perpetuity.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely raise $6.5 billion and then have to raise again soon, likely indefinitely.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“However, OpenAI's costs are likely to increase, because (as the New York Times notes) if this company grows by 300%, it's very likely that the free user base of ChatGPT increases along with it, burdening the company with more costs.”
Our reading: OpenAI's costs are likely to increase because, if the company grows by 300%, it is very likely that ChatGPT's free user base grows with it and adds costs.
No horizon
Qualifier: if the company grows by 300%
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This heavily-suggests that generative AI, as a technology, doesn’t necessarily have a product-market fit.”
Our reading: Generative AI may lack product-market fit.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“OpenAI is trapped.”
Our reading: OpenAI is trapped with no pricing room.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“This is a company lost, bleeding money with every interaction with the customer, flogging software that’s at best kind-of useful and at worst actively harmful.”
Our reading: OpenAI is a company lost, bleeding money with every customer interaction and selling software that is at best kind of useful and at worst actively harmful.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“OpenAI has not had anything truly important since the launch of GPT-3.5, and its recent o-1 model has not been particularly impressive.”
Our reading: OpenAI has not had anything truly important since the launch of GPT-3.5, and its o1 model has not been particularly impressive.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Paying for ChatGPT Plus doesn't dramatically change the product, nor does it offer a particularly-compelling new use case for anyone other than power users.”
Our reading: Paying for ChatGPT Plus doesn't dramatically change the product, nor does it offer a particularly compelling new use case for anyone other than power users.
No horizon
Qualifier: other than power users (applies to compelling use cases)
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“As a company, OpenAI is flat-out terrible at product.”
Our reading: As a company, OpenAI is flat-out terrible at product.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“As I've said before, I believe there's also a subprime AI crisis brewing because OpenAI's API services — which lets people integrate its various models into external products — is currently priced at a loss, and increasing prices will likely make this product unsustainable for many businesses currently relying on these discounted rates.”
Our reading: OpenAI's API is priced at a loss, and raising prices will likely make it unsustainable for many dependent businesses, creating a subprime AI crisis.
No horizon
Qualifier: if prices increase
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I believe the upcoming earnings from Microsoft and Google will further dampen excitement around generative AI, which in turn will reduce the likelihood that developers will integrate GPT further into their products, while also likely depressing market interest in ChatGPT writ large.”
Our reading: He believes upcoming Microsoft and Google earnings will further dampen excitement about generative AI, reducing the likelihood that developers integrate GPT further and likely depressing market interest in ChatGPT.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“I'd also argue that those willing to pay for a "Plus" subscription are more likely to use the platform way, way more than free users, which in turn may (as one Redditor hypothesized regarding Anthropic's "Claude Pro" subscription) lose it the revenue on said premium subscriber.”
Our reading: Paying ChatGPT Plus users likely use the service far more than free users, which may make OpenAI lose money on them.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Is A Bad Business
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“A good IDE (versus none) probably is a much bigger, much less expensive, much less hyped improvement that helps more people more reliably.”
Our reading: Having a good IDE, compared with having none, is probably a much bigger, much less expensive, and much less hyped improvement than generative AI coding tools, one that helps more people more reliably.
No horizon
Scope: a good IDE compared with no IDE
Source: Sorry, GenAI is NOT going to 10x computer programming
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“10x-ing requires deep conceptual understanding – exactly what GenAI lacks.”
Our reading: Generative AI cannot 10x programming because doing so requires deep conceptual understanding, which GenAI lacks.
No horizon
Source: Sorry, GenAI is NOT going to 10x computer programming
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Yet another earlier study (with earlier models) showed evidence of users writing less secure code, which of course could lead to a net loss of productivity long term.”
Our reading: Less secure code written with AI coding assistants could lead to a net loss of productivity in the long term.
No horizon
Qualifier: users writing less secure code
Source: Sorry, GenAI is NOT going to 10x computer programming
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Writing lines of code without that understanding can only help so much.”
Our reading: Generating code without conceptual understanding provides only limited productivity help.
No horizon
Qualifier: without conceptual understanding
Source: Sorry, GenAI is NOT going to 10x computer programming
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Use it to type faster, not as a substitute for clear thinking about algorithms + data structures.”
Our reading: Programmers should use generative AI to type faster, not as a substitute for clear thinking about algorithms and data structures.
No horizon
Source: Sorry, GenAI is NOT going to 10x computer programming
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Nobody should able to make that switch for free, at no cost, or people will exploit nonprofit rules infinitely, going forward.”
Our reading: No organization, including OpenAI, should be allowed to switch from nonprofit to for-profit at no cost.
No horizon
Source: How much should OpenAI’s abandoned promises be worth?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“And if the revenue never arrives, they'll be faced with the same problem as the rest of the tech industry — that they've run out of ideas to generate growth.”
Our reading: If AI revenue never materializes, SaaS companies will face having run out of ideas for growth.
No horizon
Only if: if AI revenue never arrives
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“If I had to guess, it’s about as deeply unprofitable as a SaaS company has ever been, and there is no real turning that around.”
Our reading: If he had to guess, Glean is about as deeply unprofitable as a SaaS company has ever been, and there is no real turning that around.
No horizon
Qualifier: if I had to guess
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Especially in the case of Microsoft, which will likely only ever make money from AI by selling compute.”
Our reading: Microsoft will likely only ever make money from AI by selling compute.
No horizon
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“As a result, generative AI kind of felt like the perfect SaaS snake oil, a magical new way to indefinitely charge customers for the thing that they already should have.”
Our reading: Generative AI kind of felt like the perfect SaaS snake oil, a magical new way to indefinitely charge customers for things they already should have.
No horizon
Qualifier: kind of felt like
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“One has to wonder if Microsoft365's "Copilots" are equally unprofitable. I'd wager they are.”
Our reading: Microsoft 365 Copilots are probably as unprofitable as GitHub Copilot.
No horizon
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“In fact, I think they're doing their best to hide the fact that it isn't selling at all, and costs more money than it makes when it does.”
Our reading: He thinks SaaS companies are doing their best to hide that their generative AI isn't selling at all and costs more money than it makes when it does sell.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Much like the feared commercial real estate bubble, SaaS may see its own series of dramatic price cuts to its AI tools as a means of competing and showing growth to the markets...despite the costs staying the same, or possibly increasing.”
Our reading: SaaS companies may engage in a race to the bottom with dramatic AI tool price cuts while costs stay flat or rise.
No horizon
Qualifier: costs staying the same or increasing
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As organizations build their own AI integrations — through either paying for compute for their own purpose-built solutions or by integrating OpenAI's GPT — there is likely to be some revenue growth in cloud providers.”
Our reading: Cloud providers will likely see some revenue growth as organizations build their own AI integrations.
No horizon
Qualifier: as organizations build their own AI integrations
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Because, let’s face it, every generative AI product we’ve seen from Big Tech has been underwhelming.”
Our reading: Every generative AI product we have seen from Big Tech has been underwhelming.
No horizon
Scope: products we've seen from Big Tech
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“And if Salesforce — considered the prize growth-pig of the SaaS hogs — isn't growing, then the rest of the market should be terrified.”
Our reading: If Salesforce is not growing, the rest of the SaaS market should be terrified.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Salesforce isn't growing
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“As I hinted earlier, I see the enterprise and the SaaS market as the commercial real estate arm of the Subprime AI Crisis — an industry desperate for growth attaching itself to an unprofitable, unsustainable technology that they invested in in the hopes that it would fuel a decade or more of revenue growth.”
Our reading: The enterprise SaaS market is the 'commercial real estate' of a Subprime AI Crisis, tied to an unprofitable, unsustainable technology.
No horizon
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“While it's possible that Microsoft could have found ways to make Github Copilot more efficient, this seriously suggests that Microsoft 365 Copilot loses money in much the same way, though generating code is a little more compute-intensive.”
Our reading: Microsoft 365 Copilot likely loses money per user, as GitHub Copilot was reported to.
No horizon
Qualifier: unless Microsoft made Copilot more efficient
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“For me to be wrong, there will have to be sudden, remarkable changes in either enterprise software spend, or the capabilities and costs of generative AI itself.”
Our reading: His thesis about SaaS and generative AI holds unless enterprise software spend or generative AI's capabilities and costs change suddenly and remarkably.
No horizon
Only if: absent sudden remarkable changes in enterprise software spend or generative AI capabilities and costs
Source: The Other Bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Investors shouldn’t be pouring more money at higher valuations, they should be asking what is going on.”
Our reading: Investors should not put more money into OpenAI at higher valuations and should instead scrutinize what is going on at the company.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI’s slow-motion train wreck
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“This one, from last September, may soon become just as iconic.”
Our reading: The magazine cover of OpenAI's leaders from last September may soon become as iconic as the most famous magazine covers of our time.
No horizon
Scope: the cover from last September
Source: OpenAI’s slow-motion train wreck
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I deeply worry about the prospect of mass layoffs being used to fund the movement, and nothing about the last few years makes me think they’ll do the right thing and walk away from AI.”
Our reading: He deeply worries that mass layoffs may be used to fund big tech's AI push, and nothing about recent years makes him think they will do the right thing and walk away from AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: I deeply worry
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“That it will become artificial intelligence.”
Our reading: It is a lie that generative AI will become artificial intelligence.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I realize I sound a little crazy suggesting this, but back in March I made the point that I could find no companies that had integrated generative AI in a way that has truly benefited their bottom line, and just under six months later, I'm still looking.”
Our reading: He has found no company whose generative AI integration has truly benefited its bottom line.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“But the tech industry is building toward a grotesque reckoning with a lack of creativity enabled by an economy that rewards growth over innovation, monopolization over loyalty, and management over those who actually build things.”
Our reading: The tech industry is building toward a grotesque reckoning with a lack of creativity, enabled by an economy that rewards growth over innovation, monopolization over loyalty, and management over builders.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“After developing and launching these features, they find customers don't want to pay for them, as Microsoft has found with its 365 Copilot, and if they can't find a way to make them pay for it now, during the AI boom, they're going to be hard pressed to once people's bosses stop asking them to "get in on AI."”
Our reading: In one of several hypothesized scenarios, companies that can't get customers to pay for AI features now, during the boom, will be hard pressed to once bosses stop pushing people to get in on AI.
No horizon
Only if: if they can't get customers to pay during the AI boom
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“That it's artificial intelligence.”
Our reading: It is a lie that generative AI is artificial intelligence.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Last week, we got our first real, definitive glimpse of what’s around that corner that future. And boy, was it underwhelming.”
Our reading: OpenAI's o1 launch last week, the first real, definitive glimpse of the next generation of models, was underwhelming.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“In any case, it's time to accept that the money isn't there.”
Our reading: People should accept that the money in generative AI isn't there.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“That it is inevitable.”
Our reading: It is a lie that generative AI is inevitable.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I’m going to paint you a bleak picture — not just for the big AI players, but for tech more widely, and for the people who work at tech companies — and tell you why I think the conclusion to this sordid saga, as brutal and damaging as it will be, is coming sooner than you think.”
Our reading: The end of the generative AI boom will be brutal and damaging and is coming sooner than people think.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I worry, somewhat, that option 2 is far more possible: that these companies are deeply committed to the idea that "AI is the future," and their cultures are so thoroughly disconnected from the creation of software that solves the problems that real people face that they'll burn the entire company to the ground.”
Our reading: Big tech may well choose to cut costs and lay off workers to sustain generative AI spending, burning their companies to the ground.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“All this could’ve been stopped earlier if the media had actually held them accountable.”
Our reading: The generative AI hype could have been stopped earlier if the media had held tech companies accountable.
No horizon
Qualifier: if media had held companies accountable
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“We’re not “in the early days.””
Our reading: Generative AI is not in its early days, given over $150 billion spent since November 2022.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“What's important to remember here is that other than AI, big tech is out of ideas.”
Our reading: Other than AI, big tech has no new growth ideas.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“OpenAI is shoving Strawberry out the door as a means of proving to investors (and the greater public) that the AI revolution is still here, and what they have is a clunky, unexciting and expensive model.”
Our reading: OpenAI is pushing out o1 (Strawberry) to prove to investors and the wider public that the AI revolution is still here, but what it has is a clunky, unexciting and expensive model.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Yet, unlike cryptocurrency and the metaverse, everybody has joined the party and decided to burn money pursuing an unsustainable, unreliable, unprofitable, and environmentally-destructive boondoggle sold to customers and businesses as "artificial intelligence" that will "automate everything" without it ever having a path to do so.”
Our reading: Unlike with crypto and the metaverse, everybody has joined in burning money on generative AI, an unsustainable, unreliable, unprofitable, environmentally destructive boondoggle sold as AI that will automate everything without any path to doing so.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I hypothesize a kind of subprime AI crisis is brewing, where almost the entire tech industry has bought in on a technology sold at a vastly-discounted rate, heavily-centralized and subsidized by big tech.”
Our reading: He hypothesizes that a kind of subprime AI crisis is brewing, with almost the entire tech industry bought in on a technology sold at vastly discounted rates, heavily centralized and subsidized by big tech.
No horizon
Qualifier: I hypothesize
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“It has massive, intractable problems as a result of these models being probabilistic, meaning that they don't know anything, they're just generating an answer (or an image, or a translation, or a summary) based on training data, something that model developers are running out of at an incredible pace.”
Our reading: Generative AI has intractable problems because its models are probabilistic and don't know anything, and developers are rapidly running out of training data.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“In fact, I'd argue that o1 shows that OpenAI is both desperate and out of ideas.”
Our reading: o1 shows that OpenAI is desperate and out of ideas.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This point also illustrates one of the biggest problems with generative AI — that, while "powerful" in some vague way, said power mostly boils down to "generates stuff based on other stuff" rather than any "intelligence."”
Our reading: Generative AI's power mostly amounts to generating stuff based on other stuff, not intelligence.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“In effect, investors aren't getting a piece of OpenAI, or any kind of control over OpenAI, but rather shares in the future profits of a company that loses over five billion dollars a year, and will likely lose more in 2025, if it makes it that far.”
Our reading: OpenAI, which loses over $5 billion a year, will likely lose more in 2025, if it makes it that far.
No horizon
Only if: if it makes it that far
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Based on The Information's estimates, Microsoft has somewhere between 400,000 and 4 million users for its Office Copilot features, meaning that there's a decent chance that Microsoft has built out capacity that isn't getting used.”
Our reading: There is a decent chance Microsoft has built data center capacity for Copilot that is not being used.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“While there may be companies "integrating AI" that are driving some degree of spend on Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, I hypothesize a lot of this demand is driven by investor sentiment, with companies “investing in AI” to keep the markets happy rather than any cost/benefit analysis or actual utility.”
Our reading: He hypothesizes that a lot of cloud demand from companies integrating AI is driven by investor sentiment, with companies investing in AI to keep markets happy rather than for cost/benefit or actual utility.
No horizon
Qualifier: I hypothesize
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Based on how unprofitable they are, I hypothesize that if OpenAI or Anthropic charged prices closer to their actual costs, there would be a ten-to-a-hundred-times increase in the price of API calls, though it's impossible to say how much without the actual numbers.”
Our reading: He hypothesizes that if OpenAI or Anthropic charged prices closer to their actual costs, API prices would rise ten to a hundred times, though he says the amount is impossible to know without the actual numbers.
No horizon
Only if: if they charged prices closer to actual costs
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“While The Information reported that OpenAI's revenue is $3.5 to $4.5 billion a year in July, The New York Times reported last week that OpenAI's annual revenues have "now topped $2 billion," which would mean that the end-of-year numbers will likely trend toward the lower end of the estimate.”
Our reading: OpenAI's 2024 end-of-year revenue will likely trend toward the lower end of the $3.5–4.5 billion estimate.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“This is the most likely path for Amazon and Google, who, while desperate to make Wall Street happy, still have their own profitable monopolies to point to — for now, at least.”
Our reading: The most likely path for Amazon and Google is a Meta-style 'year of efficiency': reducing capital expenditures, laying people off, and promising to slow investment somewhat, since they still have profitable monopolies to point to, for now.
No horizon
Qualifier: for now, at least
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“I also fear that said collapse could be ruinous to big tech, deeply damaging to the startup ecosystem, and will further sour public support for the tech industry.”
Our reading: He fears that the collapse of the generative AI boom could be ruinous to big tech and deeply damaging to the startup ecosystem, and will further sour public support for the tech industry.
No horizon
Only if: if the generative AI boom collapses
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“I believe that a lot of businesses are "trying" AI at the moment, and once those trials end (Gartner predicts that 30% of generative AI projects will be abandoned after their proof of concepts by end of 2025), they'll likely stop paying for the extra features, or stop integrating generative AI into their companies' products.”
Our reading: Once their AI trials end, many businesses will likely stop paying for AI features or stop integrating generative AI into products.
No horizon
Only if: once AI trials end
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“While we can’t know for sure, I imagine if this stuff was in any way profitable, they’d be talking about the revenue they were receiving from it.”
Our reading: While admitting he can't know for sure, he imagines that if generative AI were in any way profitable for the hyperscalers, they would be talking about the revenue from it, and they are not.
No horizon
Qualifier: while we can't know for sure, I imagine
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As I discussed at the end of July, OpenAI needs to raise at least $3 billion — but more like $10 billion to survive, as it is on course to lose $5 billion in 2024, a number that's likely to increase as more complex models demand more compute and more training data, with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicting that future models may cost as much as $100 billion to train.”
Our reading: OpenAI's annual losses are likely to increase beyond $5 billion as more complex models demand more compute and training data.
No horizon
Qualifier: as more complex models demand more compute and training data
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“While this sounds like a seismic breakthrough, or even another step towards the highly-feted artificial general intelligence (AGI) — it isn’t — and you can tell by the fact that OpenAI opted to release o1 as its own standalone product, rather than a number update to GPT.”
Our reading: o1's chain-of-thought approach is not a seismic breakthrough or a step toward AGI.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“OpenAI is more than likely charging only a small percentage of what it likely costs to run its models, and can only continue to do so if it is able to continually raise more venture funding than has ever been raised and continue to receive preferential pricing from Microsoft, a company that recently mentioned that it considers OpenAI a competitor.”
Our reading: OpenAI likely charges only a small fraction of its running costs and can only continue if it keeps raising record venture funding and receiving Microsoft's preferential pricing.
No horizon
Qualifier: can continue only with record fundraising and Microsoft preferential pricing
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“And even if they did, it isn't clear whether generative AI actually provides much business value at all.”
Our reading: It is not clear that generative AI provides much business value at all.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It has described the reinforcement training process as “thinking” and “reasoning,” when, in fact, it’s making guesses, and then guessing on the correctness of those guesses at each step, where the end destination is often something that can be known in advance.”
Our reading: o1 does not think or reason; it makes guesses and then guesses about the correctness of those guesses.
No horizon
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“All of the things it generates to “consider” an answer (to be clear, this model is not “thinking”) are also charged for, making complex answers for things like coding likely incredibly expensive.”
Our reading: Because hidden reasoning tokens are charged, complex o1 answers such as coding are likely very expensive.
No horizon
Qualifier: hidden reasoning tokens are charged
Source: The Subprime AI Crisis
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Gary Marcus continue to a dream of day in which AI research doesn’t center almost entirely around LLMs..”
Our reading: AI research should not center almost entirely on LLMs, as it currently does.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“(An additional point I should have made is that the new system appears to depend heavily on synthetic data, and that such data may be easier to produce in some domains (such as those in which o1 is most successful, like some aspects of math) than others.)”
Our reading: o1 appears to depend heavily on synthetic data, and such data may be easier to produce in some domains (such as some aspects of math, where o1 is most successful) than in others.
No horizon
Qualifier: appears to depend heavily on synthetic data
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In an ideal world, both candidates would come clean on their policies around AI, and we should come away with a clear understanding of their understanding of our future. In an ideal world, moderators would demand such clarity.”
Our reading: Presidential candidates should state their AI policies clearly and debate moderators should demand that clarity.
No horizon
Qualifier: in an ideal world
Source: What will the candidates say about AI in tonight’s debate?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It would be a really good time to demand better. If we don’t, future generations may regret it.”
Our reading: Citizens should now demand better from candidates on AI policy, or future generations may regret it.
No horizon
Qualifier: if we don't, future generations may regret it
Source: What will the candidates say about AI in tonight’s debate?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“And how the candidates plan to deal with a likely rise in market manipulation using AI-generated misinformation.”
Our reading: Market manipulation using AI-generated misinformation is likely to rise.
No horizon
Source: What will the candidates say about AI in tonight’s debate?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“With so much at stake, a total neglect of AI policy would be deeply unfortunate. Our long-term future may actually be shaped more by AI policy than tariffs.”
Our reading: AI policy may shape our long-term future more than tariff policy will.
No horizon
Source: What will the candidates say about AI in tonight’s debate?