Claims that can’t be checked, page 19 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 19 of 37: claims 1801 to 1900 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“As I explained, Amodei’s coding claims seemed outright fanciful to me.”
Our reading: Amodei's coding claims seemed outright fanciful to Marcus.
No horizon
Qualifier: seemed ... to me
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“My guess is that current AI coding tools would struggle to use 6502 well, for multiple reasons, including a lack of high-level libraries, fewer Stack Overflow queries to rely on, and a greater needed for the coding tool to understanding high level architectural concerns that might be side-stepped in higher level languages.”
Our reading: Marcus guesses that current AI coding tools would struggle to use 6502 assembly well, for multiple reasons including a lack of high-level libraries, fewer Stack Overflow queries to rely on, and a greater need to understand high-level architectural concerns that might be side-stepped in higher-level languages.
No horizon
Qualifier: my guess
Source: AI Coding Fantasy meets Pac-Man
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I think most or all of the points I made – about challenges in building and debugging novel systems with sufficient generality- will stand the test of time.”
Our reading: Marcus thinks that most or all of the points he made last week, about the challenges of building and debugging novel systems with sufficient generality, will stand the test of time.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Coding Fantasy meets Pac-Man
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“But I also fear a world in which the State department can judge anyone, at any time, to be a “threat” to the state, even based on superficial AI analysis, and deport them without due process, using AI as a smoke screen to authoritarian action.”
Our reading: Marcus fears the State Department could use superficial AI analysis to label anyone a threat and deport them without due process, with AI serving as a smoke screen for authoritarian action.
No horizon
Source: Urgent warning: Black Mirror has entered the United States, with AI as its handmaiden
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Nobel-calibre science is a lot harder than driving, which we still have not reliably solved”
Our reading: Nobel-calibre science is much harder than driving, and AI still has not reliably solved driving.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Per the 80:20 rule I described a few days ago, it’s easy to make demos; 80% of driving, 80% of some scientific problem, etc. Getting the last 20% is often really really hard.”
Our reading: In AI it is easy to build demos covering 80% of a task such as driving or a scientific problem, but getting the last 20% is often very hard.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“A set of problems that have resisted solution for a quarter century, even backed by a half trillion dollars, probably aren’t all going to get solved so quickly.”
Our reading: The long-standing core AGI problems probably will not all be solved quickly, even with half a trillion dollars of funding.
No horizon
Qualifier: even backed by a half trillion dollars
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If it is this unreliable on arithmetic, it will be this unreliable on everything else, and we shouldn’t accord it the society-changing power that people intend to accord it.”
Our reading: An AI system this unreliable on arithmetic will be similarly unreliable on everything else and should not be given society-changing power.
No horizon
Qualifier: if it is this unreliable on arithmetic
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“The fact that GPT 4.5 is wildly expensive relative to its competitors, and the fact that future models following the same trajectory of scale might be prohibitively expensive, especially in a regime in which nobody has a moat and price wars have been intensifying since the release of DeepSeek.”
Our reading: Future models that keep scaling the same way might be prohibitively expensive, especially since nobody has a moat and price wars are intensifying.
No horizon
Only if: if future models follow the same trajectory of scale
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“I completely agree with Klein that AGI will matter a lot when it comes.”
Our reading: When AGI arrives, it will matter a lot.
No horizon
Only if: when AGI arrives
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“It actually seems to me that US may be all but surrendering the AGI race over to China.”
Our reading: With its academic research institutions being dismantled, the US may be all but surrendering the AGI race to China.
No horizon
Qualifier: given the dismantling of academic research institutions
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Having observed the pace of science and engineering firsthand over the last half century, the middle scenario seems to me like – by far – the most plausible.”
Our reading: The most plausible scenario by far is that getting to AGI will be a slog: some problems get solved in the next 2-3 years and others take longer.
No horizon
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“And, importantly, the reverse of what Mollick said is also true: we have to consider the scenario that the proposition that AGI is imminent is false.”
Our reading: We have to consider the scenario in which the proposition that AGI is imminent is false.
No horizon
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Automatically generated bullshit still seems to be the norm.”
Our reading: Automatically generated bullshit still seems to be the norm, including in systems like Deep Research and Grok 3 Deep Search.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I am not convinced that anything anyone could realistically do with LLMs won’t be almost immediately copied, as has been the recent trend.”
Our reading: Marcus is not convinced that anything anyone could realistically do with LLMs won't be copied almost immediately, as has been the recent trend.
No horizon
Qualifier: not convinced
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I couldn’t help but think that the US’s single-minded commitment to Large Language Models, predicated on implausible assumptions about AGI’s imminence, particularly combined with the untimely gutting of its scientific institutions, could ultimately lead to its undoing.”
Our reading: The US's single-minded commitment to LLMs, based on implausible assumptions about AGI's imminence and particularly when combined with the untimely gutting of its scientific institutions, could ultimately lead to the US's undoing.
No horizon
Qualifier: particularly combined with the untimely gutting of its scientific institutions
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If LLMs are the wrong path to AGI, as I and a great many academics think, we may have a lot of thinking to do. We may be massively wasting resources, and getting locked into a lot foolish battles around the wrong technology.”
Our reading: If LLMs are the wrong path to AGI, as Marcus and a great many academics think, we may have a lot of thinking to do and may be massively wasting resources and getting locked into foolish battles around the wrong technology.
No horizon
Only if: if LLMs are the wrong path to AGI
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In a time when Trump is dismantling American research infrastructure, it should have been front and center.”
Our reading: Research should have been front and center in the Klein–Buchanan episode, at a time when Trump is dismantling American research infrastructure.
No horizon
Qualifier: in a time when Trump is dismantling American research infrastructure
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If getting to AGI in the next three years is not quite as certain as the sun rising every day from the east, we might want to hedge our bets, and try to focus on what the field of AI need to develop besides scaling.”
Our reading: If getting to AGI in the next three years is not quite certain, we might want to hedge our bets and try to focus on what the field of AI needs to develop besides scaling.
No horizon
Only if: if getting to AGI in the next three years is not quite as certain as the sun rising
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Microsoft walking away from over a Gigawatt of data center plans — equivalent to as much as 14% of its current data center capacity — is a direct sign that it does not believe the growth is there in generative AI”
Our reading: Microsoft's walking away from over a gigawatt of plans directly signals it doesn't believe in generative AI growth and may have overbuilt.
No horizon
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“And, again, the total figure is likely far higher than a gigawatt.”
Our reading: The total data center capacity Microsoft walked away from is likely far higher than a gigawatt.
No horizon
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Nevertheless, I have real concerns about whether OpenAI is even capable of expanding further, starting with a fairly obvious one: its only source of money, SoftBank.”
Our reading: OpenAI may not be capable of expanding further, given its only money source is SoftBank.
No horizon
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Given that $3bn is equivalent to OpenAI’s entire revenue from selling premium access to ChatGPT in 2024 — which included some major deals with the likes of PriceWaterhouseCoopers — I’m inclined to believe the latter.”
Our reading: SoftBank's $3 billion-a-year purchase of OpenAI technology is likely a backdoor subsidy rather than a reflection of value.
No horizon
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“These numbers heavily suggest that Microsoft — the biggest purchaser of NVIDIA's GPUs and, according to TD Cowen, "the most active [data center] lessee of capacity in 2023 and 1H24" — does not believe there is future growth in generative AI, nor does it have faith in (nor does it want responsibility for) the future of OpenAI.”
Our reading: Microsoft's data center cuts strongly suggest it does not believe in future generative AI growth or have faith in OpenAI's future.
No horizon
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“In the event that Microsoft believed there was meaningful growth in generative AI, it wouldn't be canceling anything, or at the very least wouldn't be canceling so much.”
Our reading: If Microsoft believed in meaningful generative AI growth, it would not be canceling data center capacity, or not so much.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Microsoft believed in meaningful generative AI growth
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“I believe the reason Microsoft is cutting back is that it does not have the appetite to provide further data center expansion for OpenAI, and it’s having doubts about the future of generative AI as a whole.”
Our reading: The author believes Microsoft is cutting back because it does not have the appetite to provide further data center expansion for OpenAI and is having doubts about the future of generative AI as a whole.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“OpenAI burned $5 billion in 2024, a number it’ll likely double in 2025 (remember, the Information reported that OpenAI was projected to spend $13 billion on compute alone with Microsoft in 2025), and it has no path to profitability.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely double its $5 billion 2024 cash burn in 2025.
No horizon
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Microsoft making such a material pullback on data center expansion suggests that the growth in generative AI products, both those run on Microsoft’s servers and those sold as part of Microsoft’s products, do not have the revolutionary growth-trajectory that both CFO Amy Hood and CEO Satya Nadella have been claiming”
Our reading: Microsoft's material pullback on data center expansion suggests that generative AI products, both those run on Microsoft's servers and those sold in Microsoft's products, lack the revolutionary growth trajectory Amy Hood and Satya Nadella claim, and it calls into question generative AI's viability as a growth vehicle for any hyperscaler.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“OpenAI burned $5 billion in 2024, will likely burn $11 billion in 2025, and will continue burning money in perpetuity”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely burn $11 billion in 2025.
No horizon
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“If I’m right, tech’s only growth story is dead.”
Our reading: If the author's analysis is right, generative AI, tech's only growth story, is dead.
No horizon
Qualifier: if I'm right
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“At worst, this situation could suggest that Microsoft is actively dumping OpenAI, and is having questions about the fundamentals of the generative AI industry.”
Our reading: At worst, Microsoft could be actively dumping OpenAI and questioning generative AI's fundamentals.
No horizon
Qualifier: at worst
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“It is time for investors and the general public to begin demanding tangible and direct numbers on the revenue and profits related to generative AI, as it is becoming increasingly obvious that the revenues are small and the profits are non-existent.”
Our reading: Investors and the public should demand direct generative AI revenue and profit figures.
No horizon
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Canceling cities-worth of capacity at a time when artificial intelligence is supposedly revolutionizing everything suggests that artificial intelligence isn't really revolutionizing anything.”
Our reading: Microsoft's capacity cancellations suggest AI is not really revolutionizing anything.
No horizon
Source: Power Cut
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“With people like Roose hyping automated coding, we may well find ourselves with too few coders.”
Our reading: Hype about automated coding may well leave society with too few coders.
No horizon
Qualifier: given hype about automated coding
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Anyone can download the code, and probably most or all of the AI systems were trained on this and other similar examples.”
Our reading: Most or all AI coding systems were probably trained on existing fridge-photo recipe code such as Deep-food.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“This will leave the US flat-foooted.”
Our reading: People increasingly discouraging American children from learning to code, out of naive enthusiasm about AI, will leave the US flat-footed.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“None of this may matter much in a lunch-recipe recommender, but errors in an automatic email writing system could cause serious harm.”
Our reading: Errors in AI-generated code for something like an automatic email writing system could cause serious harm.
No horizon
Qualifier: in an automatic email writing system
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In the end, this essay, like a lot of Roose’s pieces, comes off as marketing for AI companies, even though it is framed as reporting. The Times owes its readers better.”
Our reading: Roose's essay, like a lot of his pieces, comes off as marketing for AI companies even though it is framed as reporting, and the Times owes its readers better.
No horizon
Scope: like a lot of Roose's pieces
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“By hyping the tech largely uncritically, the Rooses and Newtons of the world make the tech oligarchy stronger; society inevitably has to bear the costs.”
Our reading: Uncritical AI hype by journalists strengthens the tech oligarchy, and society bears the costs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Errors in the code of automatic code writing systems will likely persist for decades, especially when they are forced to construct genuinely novel systems.”
Our reading: Errors in code from automatic code-writing systems will likely persist for decades, especially for genuinely novel systems.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially for genuinely novel systems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Altman’s credibility has diminished.”
Our reading: Sam Altman's credibility has declined.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Altman was the right CEO to launch ChatGPT, but he may not have the intellectual vision to get them to the next level.”
Our reading: Altman may lack the intellectual vision to take OpenAI to the next level.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“GPT 4.5, vibes and all, are the best Altman’s got. He was bluffing the whole time.”
Our reading: GPT-4.5 is the best Altman has got, and Altman was bluffing the whole time.
No horizon
Scope: the whole time
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“OpenAI is likely still losing money on every prompt.”
Our reading: OpenAI is probably still losing money on every prompt.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“This was OpenAI’s best shot, post DeepSeek, to show that they are still the king.Instead, they swung and missed.”
Our reading: GPT-4.5 was OpenAI's best attempt after DeepSeek to show it still leads, and it failed.
No horizon
Qualifier: post DeepSeek
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In short, potential investors should be asking hard questions, both about Sam, as a technical manager, and about the company’s ability to deliver.”
Our reading: Potential investors should question Altman's technical management and OpenAI's ability to deliver.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“GPT 4.5 appears to be the system that was supposed to be GPT-5, relabeled in order to manage expectations downwards.”
Our reading: GPT-4.5 appears to be the system intended as GPT-5, renamed to lower expectations.
No horizon
Qualifier: appears
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“When he told us “We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it”, he was obviously fibbing.”
Our reading: Altman was obviously fibbing when he said 'We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it'.
No horizon
Qualifier: obviously
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“All the bullshit about GPT-5 we listened to for the last couple years: not so true.”
Our reading: The hype about GPT-5 over the past couple of years has not proven true.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Scaling data and compute is not a physical law, and pretty much everything I have told you was true.”
Our reading: Scaling data and compute is not a physical law, and pretty much everything Marcus has told his readers was true.
No horizon
Qualifier: pretty much
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Grok 3 didn’t fundamentally change things, and GPT 4.5 – which was probably supposed to be GPT 5 – didn’t either.”
Our reading: Neither Grok 3 nor GPT-4.5 (probably originally intended as GPT-5) fundamentally changed the state of AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“What I said almost a year ago still holds true, especially when coupled with the equally underwhelming performance of the similarly massive Grok 3:”
Our reading: Marcus's 2024 predictions still hold, supported by Grok 3's underwhelming performance despite its massive scale.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But minor variations seems to be all that is emerging, despite the enormous investments.”
Our reading: Despite enormous investments, recent AI releases appear to be only minor variations on earlier ones.
No horizon
Qualifier: despite enormous investments
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Right now, the math for profitability doesn’t work, influence on productivity of GenAI has been minimal, and prospects for pure scaling aren’t looking great.”
Our reading: Prospects for pure scaling of AI are not looking great.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Investors should also be looking at the prospects for “solving” AI with pure scaling, which is after all much of the vision Nvidia is selling.”
Our reading: Investors should weigh the prospects for solving AI through pure scaling, which underpins Nvidia's pitch.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But IMHO people investing their money in Nvidia shouldn’t be looking just at quarterly reports (which might be good, since people continue to buy their gold rush shovels in bulk—for now).”
Our reading: Nvidia investors should not look only at quarterly reports.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“GPT 4.5 is unlikely to revolutionize AI”
Our reading: GPT 4.5 is unlikely to revolutionize AI.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“In reality GPT 4.5 is unlikely to meet high expectations, per The Information:”
Our reading: GPT 4.5 is unlikely to meet high expectations.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“All this looks to be true for GPT 4.5 as well.”
Our reading: GPT 4.5 likely shows mixed results, with reasoning and hallucination problems unresolved and gains in only some domains.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“He has done so much harm in recent weeks, though, ranging from violent cuts on science research to, in a deeply Orwellian move, preparing to feed massive amounts of private information into unreliable generative AI for the purposes of making employment decisions that I no longer find him remotely reasonable.”
Our reading: In recent weeks Musk has done so much harm, including violent cuts to science research and preparations to feed massive amounts of private information into unreliable generative AI to make employment decisions (a deeply Orwellian move), that Marcus no longer finds him remotely reasonable.
No horizon
Scope: in recent weeks
Source: Elon Musk's inability to listen to others is torching almost everything he touches
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“While it's quite common for Silicon Valley companies to play fast and loose with metrics, this particular one is deeply concerning, and I hypothesize that OpenAI choosing to go with Weekly versus Monthly Active Users is an intentional attempt to avoid people calculating the conversion rate of its subscription products.”
Our reading: Zitron hypothesizes OpenAI reports weekly rather than monthly active users intentionally to obscure its subscription conversion rate.
No horizon
Qualifier: hypothesis
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“The fact of the matter is that if Google and Microsoft can't make generative AI apps with meaningful consumer penetration, this entire industry is screwed.”
Our reading: If Google and Microsoft cannot make generative AI apps with meaningful consumer penetration, the whole industry is screwed.
No horizon
Only if: Google and Microsoft fail to achieve meaningful consumer penetration
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“What you are watching is not a revolution, but a repetitious public relations campaign for one company that accidentally timed the launch of ChatGPT with a period of deep desperation in big tech, one so profound that it will likely drag half a trillion dollars’ worth of capital expenditures along with it.”
Our reading: What is happening is not a revolution but a repetitive PR campaign for one company that accidentally timed ChatGPT's launch with a period of deep desperation in big tech, so profound that it will likely drag half a trillion dollars of capital expenditures along with it.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Microsoft's Copilot app isn't just unpopular, it's irrelevant.”
Our reading: Microsoft's Copilot app is unpopular and irrelevant.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“These are also — and I do not believe there are any use cases that justify this — not a counterbalance for the ruinous financial and environmental costs of generative AI.”
Our reading: No generative AI use cases justify its ruinous financial and environmental costs.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“They are probability machines, which in turn makes them only as reliable as probability can be, and as conscious — no matter how intricate a system may be or how much infrastructure is built — as a pair of dice.”
Our reading: LLMs are probability machines, only as reliable as probability allows and no more conscious than dice regardless of scale.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“And even then, Google, Amazon and (to an extent Microsoft), the companies making the most investments in AI, do not want to state what that revenue is. I hypothesize the reason that they do not want to disclose it is that it’s pretty god damn small.”
Our reading: Zitron hypothesizes that Google, Amazon and, to an extent, Microsoft do not want to disclose their AI revenue because it is very small.
No horizon
Qualifier: I hypothesize
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Anthropic's business, again like OpenAI, is entirely propped up by venture capital and hyperscaler (Google, Amazon) money, and without it would die almost immediately, because it has only ever lost money.”
Our reading: Without venture capital and hyperscaler funding, Anthropic would die almost immediately because it has only ever lost money.
No horizon
Only if: without venture capital and hyperscaler money
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“It is time to stop humouring OpenAI, and time to start directly stating that it is a bad business without a meaningful product.”
Our reading: People should stop humouring OpenAI and state it is a bad business without a meaningful product.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Generative AI lacks the basic unit economics, product-market fit, or market penetration associated with any meaningful software boom, and outside of OpenAI, the industry may be pathetically, hopelessly small, all while providing few meaningful business returns and constantly losing money.”
Our reading: Generative AI lacks the basic unit economics, product-market fit, or market penetration associated with any meaningful software boom, and outside of OpenAI the industry may be pathetically, hopelessly small while providing few meaningful business returns and constantly losing money.
No horizon
Scope: outside of OpenAI
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As a result of doing away with the model picker, I hypothesize that OpenAI will now attempt to moderate costs by picking what model will work best for a prompt — a process it will automate to questionable results.”
Our reading: Zitron hypothesizes that, as a result of doing away with the model picker, OpenAI will try to moderate costs by choosing which model works best for each prompt, an automated process he expects to give questionable results.
No horizon
Qualifier: I hypothesize
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“I do not think this is a real industry, and I believe that if we pulled the plug on the venture capital aspect tomorrow it would evaporate.”
Our reading: Zitron does not think generative AI is a real industry and believes that if the venture capital were pulled tomorrow, it would evaporate.
No horizon
Only if: if we pulled the plug on venture capital tomorrow
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“It isn’t working. The users aren’t there. The revenue isn’t there. The best time to stop this was two years ago, and the next best time is as soon as humanly possible.”
Our reading: Generative AI lacks users and revenue, and the buildout should be stopped as soon as possible.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“The financials are truly damning, the user numbers so small as to be insignificant, the costs so ruinous that they will likely cost tens of thousands of people their jobs and one of the hyperscalers CEOs their job (although, admittedly, I’m less upset about that), and inflict damage on tech valuations that may rival the dot com boom.”
Our reading: Generative AI costs will likely cost tens of thousands of jobs and one hyperscaler CEO's job, and may damage tech valuations on a dot-com scale.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“While synthetic data might bridge some of the gap, at least in situations where there’s a definitive right and wrong answer (like a mathematical problem), there are likely diminishing returns due to the sheer amount of data necessary to make a large language model even larger — data amounting to more than four times the size of the internet.”
Our reading: While synthetic data might bridge some of the gap, at least where there is a definitive right or wrong answer, there are likely diminishing returns because of the sheer amount of data needed to make an LLM even larger, which he puts at more than four times the size of the internet.
No horizon
Qualifier: synthetic data might bridge some of the gap
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“This company is not worth $60 billion.”
Our reading: Anthropic is not worth its $60 billion valuation.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“No amount of beating off about test-time compute and connecting Large Language Models to other Large Language Models is going to create a new use case for this technology, and even if it did, it’s unlikely that it ever makes enough money to make it profitable.”
Our reading: Test-time compute and chaining LLMs will not create new use cases, and even if they did, the technology is unlikely ever to be profitable.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Even the most successful company in the business appears to have no way to stop burning money — and as I'll explain, there's only one real company in this industry, OpenAI, and it is most decidedly not a real business.”
Our reading: OpenAI, the only real company in generative AI, appears unable to stop burning money and is not a real business.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“I have said that generative AI is a group delusion in the past, and I repeat that claim today.”
Our reading: Generative AI is a group delusion.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“When a company uses the term “agent,” they are intentionally trying to be deceitful, because the term “agent” means “autonomous AI that does stuff without you touching it.””
Our reading: When a company uses the term 'agent', it is intentionally trying to be deceitful, because 'agent' means autonomous AI that acts without user involvement.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Those developers actually using OpenAI’s APIs in actual commercial projects likely represent a vanishingly small percentage of that three million.”
Our reading: Commercial users likely make up a vanishingly small share of OpenAI's three million developers.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“This bubble will only burst when either the markets or the hyperscalers accept that they have chased their own tails toward oblivion.”
Our reading: The AI bubble will only burst when the markets or the hyperscalers accept that they have chased their own tails toward oblivion.
No horizon
Only if: markets or hyperscalers accept they have chased their own tails toward oblivion
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“I believe that this announcement is a very bad omen for OpenAI.”
Our reading: The GPT-4.5/GPT-5 roadmap announcement is a very bad omen for OpenAI.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“If the biggest player in the space only made a billion dollars in 2024 selling access to its models (unprofitably), and that amount is the minority of its revenue, there may not actually be a real industry here.”
Our reading: Given OpenAI made only about $1B from API access in 2024, the market for implementing LLMs may not be a real industry.
No horizon
Source: There Is No AI Revolution
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Success Theater”
Our reading: Generative AI's apparent success amounts to 'success theater' rather than real success.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But today’s date should never be multiple guess.”
Our reading: An AI system like Grok 3 should give today's date consistently, not different answers on different tries.
No horizon
Source: Grok 3 Beta in Shambles
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“No game changers; no major leap forward, here.”
Our reading: Grok 3 is neither a game changer nor a major leap forward.
No horizon
Source: Grok 3 Hot Take
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“[Update 1: probably not, per an OpenAI employee who posted some previously unreleased o3 data that appeared show o3 beating Grok3 on two benchmarks]”
Our reading: Grok 3 is probably not smarter than the full, unreleased version of OpenAI's o3.
No horizon
Qualifier: compared with the full unreleased version of o3
Source: Grok 3 Hot Take
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“I didn’t notice anything truly original.”
Our reading: Marcus did not notice anything truly original in the Grok 3 demo.
No horizon
Qualifier: I didn't notice
Source: Grok 3 Hot Take
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Sam Altman can breathe easy for now.”
Our reading: For now, Grok 3 gives Sam Altman (OpenAI) little reason to worry.
No horizon
Qualifier: for now
Source: Grok 3 Hot Take
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“There is no question that this is a very impressive accomplishment.”
Our reading: AlphaGeometry2 solving 42 of 50 IMO geometry problems is, without question, a very impressive accomplishment.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We see no reason at all to call it “superhuman”.”
Our reading: The authors see no reason at all to call AlphaGeometry2's solutions 'superhuman'.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Still, an important takeaway is a familiar one about benchmarks: they are often narrowly constructed, and one shouldn’t overgeneralize a strong result on a benchmark for a full conceptual understanding of a problem.”
Our reading: Benchmarks are often narrow, and strong benchmark results should not be taken as full conceptual understanding.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“This seems too strong to us, because the system is actually sidestepping a critical part of IMO challenges: understanding the English statement of the problems; by preconverting each problem into formal notation, there is a sense in which DeepMind has given their system an unfair start, and not grappled with something essential.”
Our reading: DeepMind's 'gold-medalist performance' claim seems too strong to the authors, because preconverting each problem into formal notation means the system sidesteps understanding the English problem statements, which in a sense gives it an unfair start.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems too strong to us
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It is disappointing that a top research team confused success on a prestigious competition with mastery of a foundational subject matter, and tiresome to see the media overhype things as ever.”
Our reading: It is disappointing that a top research team confused success on a prestigious competition with mastery of a foundational subject, and tiresome that the media overhype things as ever.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“We have always felt that greater modularity will be a necessary part of future AI, and welcome these kinds of explorations.”
Our reading: Greater modularity will be a necessary part of future AI.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“OpenAI's next big thing is the ability to generate a report that you would likely not be able to use in any meaningful way anywhere, because while it can browse the web and find things and write a report, it sources things based on what it thinks can confirm its arguments rather than making sure the source material is valid or respectable.”
Our reading: Deep Research generates reports you would likely not be able to use in any meaningful way anywhere, because it sources material based on what it thinks confirms its arguments rather than making sure sources are valid or respectable.
No horizon
Qualifier: would likely not
Source: The Generative AI Con
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“These numbers suggest that these products aren't very popular at all!”
Our reading: The January 2025 Similarweb monthly visitor numbers for Gemini, Copilot, Perplexity and Claude suggest that these products aren't very popular at all.
No horizon
Qualifier: these numbers suggest
Source: The Generative AI Con
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“People like Marc Benioff claiming that "today's CEOs are the last to manage all-human workforces" are doing so to pump up their stocks rather than build anything approaching a real product.”
Our reading: Claims by CEOs like Benioff about AI replacing workforces are made to pump stocks, not reflecting real products.
No horizon
Source: The Generative AI Con
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Generative AI is a financial, ecological and social time bomb, and I believe that it's fundamentally damaging the relationship between the tech industry and society, while also shining a glaring, blinding light on the disconnection between the powerful and regular people.”
Our reading: Generative AI is a financial, ecological and social time bomb damaging tech's relationship with society.
No horizon
Source: The Generative AI Con