Claims that can’t be checked, page 18 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 18 of 37: claims 1701 to 1800 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Yes there is a degree here of marketing, of partnerships, of word of mouth, of some degree of utility, but remove the non-stop free media campaign and ChatGPT would've peetered out by now along with this stupid fucking bubble.”
Our reading: ChatGPT's popularity is mainly due to nonstop media coverage; without it, ChatGPT and the AI bubble would have petered out.
No horizon
Qualifier: absent non-stop media coverage
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“In fact, I think we have reason to worry about whether OpenAI even makes its current projections.”
Our reading: OpenAI may fail to meet its current 2025 revenue projections.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Oh, By The Way, The Bubble Might Be Bursting”
Our reading: The generative AI bubble might be bursting.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“These companies don't care about your safety and they don't have any way to get to AGI.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic don't care about your safety and don't have any way to get to AGI.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Generative AI has never had the kind of meaningful business returns or utility that actually underpins something meaningful, but it has enough to make people give it a try.”
Our reading: Generative AI has never had the kind of meaningful business returns or utility that underpins something meaningful, but it has enough to make people give it a try.
No horizon
Qualifier: the kind that underpins something meaningful
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“The longer this bubble inflates - the longer everybody pretends - the worse the consequences will be.”
Our reading: The longer the AI bubble keeps inflating, the worse the consequences of its collapse will be.
No horizon
Qualifier: the longer the bubble inflates
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Generative AI is a remarkable con — a just-good-enough simulacrum of human expression to get it past the gatekeepers in finance and the media, knowing that neither will apply a second gear of critical thinking beyond "huh guess we're doing AI now."”
Our reading: Generative AI is a con that passes just well enough to fool finance and the media.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“If Amazon is only making $5 billion in revenue from the literal only shiny new thing it has, sold on the world's premier cloud platform, at a time when businesses are hungry and desperate to integrate AI, then there's little chance this suddenly turns into a remarkable revenue-driver.”
Our reading: If Amazon is only making $5 billion in revenue from AI, its only shiny new thing, sold on the world's premier cloud platform while businesses are desperate to integrate AI, there is little chance Amazon's AI business suddenly turns into a remarkable revenue driver.
No horizon
Only if: if Amazon is only making $5 billion in revenue from AI
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“With all its data and all its talent, Google has put the laziest version of a Large Language Model on top of a questionably-functional search product as a means of impressing shareholders.”
Our reading: Despite all its data and talent, Google has put the laziest version of a Large Language Model on top of a questionably-functional search product as a means of impressing shareholders.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Search and replace LaMDA with Claude, and it all still applies.”
Our reading: Marcus's 2022 argument that LaMDA was not sentient and lacked understanding applies equally to Anthropic's Claude.
No horizon
Source: New adventures in AI hype: “Our language models are so ‘conscious’ we need to give them rights”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“I suspect the real move here is simply, as it so often is, to hype the product — basically by saying, hey, look at how smart our product is, it’s so smart we need to give it rights.”
Our reading: Anthropic's work on evaluating the 'welfare' of its models is probably mainly a commercial move to hype its product as smart enough to need rights.
No horizon
Source: New adventures in AI hype: “Our language models are so ‘conscious’ we need to give them rights”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“None of the software in either of those systems has survived in modern efforts at “artificial general intelligence”, and I am not sure that LaMDA and its cousins will play any important role in the future of AI, either.”
Our reading: LaMDA and similar language models may not play any important role in the future of AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: 2022 argument reaffirmed as applying to today's LLMs
Source: New adventures in AI hype: “Our language models are so ‘conscious’ we need to give them rights”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“I still don’t remotely see an argument that current models are sentient, nor any argument that scaling a model makes it more conscious, even if it can mimic more language from humans discussing consciousness.”
Our reading: Marcus says he still does not remotely see an argument that current models are sentient, nor any argument that scaling a model makes it more conscious, even if a scaled model can mimic more human language about consciousness.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if it can mimic more language from humans discussing consciousness
Source: New adventures in AI hype: “Our language models are so ‘conscious’ we need to give them rights”
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“And given that Meta also appears to have just juiced some benchmarks, the whole thing is starting to look like a bunch of over-promisers scrambling to make things look better than they really are.”
Our reading: Given that Meta also appears to have just juiced some benchmarks, the whole thing is starting to look like a bunch of over-promisers scrambling to make things look better than they really are.
No horizon
Qualifier: Meta appears to have just juiced some benchmarks
Source: OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The truth is that we don’t really know how good o3 is or isn’t, and nobody should ever take OpenAI’s video presentations particularly seriously again, until they have been fully vetted by the community.”
Our reading: We don't really know how good o3 is or isn't, and nobody should ever again take OpenAI's video presentations particularly seriously until the community has fully vetted them.
No horizon
Qualifier: until they have been fully vetted by the community
Source: OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Forgive if me I am getting Theranos vibes.”
Our reading: Marcus says he is getting Theranos vibes from OpenAI's handling of the o3 results.
No horizon
Qualifier: vibes
Source: OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“some possible explanations are given, but this is again a very bad look.”
Our reading: The gap between OpenAI's reported 32% and Epoch's 11% for o3-mini on FrontierMath is again a very bad look for OpenAI, even though some possible explanations have been given.
No horizon
Qualifier: some possible explanations are given
Source: OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And the lower 56% is not much different from what Jacob Andreas’s lab at MIT got in November. It’s arguably worse; if I followed correctly, and if the measures are the same, Andreas lab’s best score was actually higher, at 61%.”
Our reading: The 56% is not much different from what Jacob Andreas's lab at MIT got in November, and arguably worse, since, if Marcus followed correctly and the measures are the same, the Andreas lab's best score was higher at 61%.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This disposition concerns the qualified comparison, not the existence of the November result.
Source: OpenAI’s dirty December o3 demo doesn’t readily replicate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“His claims about o3 yesterday didn’t survive even the day.”
Our reading: Tyler Cowen's claim that OpenAI's o3 is AGI was refuted within a day of its release.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“The real reason for doing this of course is to get more data; and as I have pointed out before, to pivot OpenAI into surveillance.”
Our reading: The real reason for Sam Altman's move to cut into Elon Musk's turf is to get more data and to pivot OpenAI into surveillance.
No horizon
Scope: regarding Sam Altman's move to cut into Elon Musk's turf
Source: Altman vs Musk cage match
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“The real reason for doing this of course is to get more data; and as I have pointed out before, to pivot OpenAI into surveillance.”
Our reading: OpenAI's move into Musk's turf is part of an effort to pivot OpenAI into surveillance.
No horizon
Qualifier: regarding OpenAI's move into Musk's (social network) turf
Source: Altman vs Musk cage match
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But the big change we need still hasn’t come.”
Our reading: As of April 2025, the paradigm change AI needs has not happened.
No horizon
Source: ”Those claiming we’re mere months away from AI agents replacing most programmers” should think again
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“The only way we are going to get past this kind of 80:20, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t kind of AI is to change the paradigm.”
Our reading: AI will not get past its 80:20, sometimes-works reliability unless the paradigm changes.
No horizon
Only if: without a change of paradigm
Source: ”Those claiming we’re mere months away from AI agents replacing most programmers” should think again
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“As I have argued here before, Sam Altman is, despite outward appearances, not a nice fellow.”
Our reading: Sam Altman, despite outward appearances, is not a nice person.
No horizon
Qualifier: despite outward appearances
Source: Sam Altman’s attitude problem
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“It's bullshit, but it captured the hearts and minds of AI boosters because it vaguely suggests that somehow Large Language Models and their associated technology will become something entirely different.”
Our reading: The AI 2027 report's suggestion that LLMs will become something entirely different, such as a self-teaching agent, is bullshit.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Nobody has ever raised as much as OpenAI needs to, and based on the sheer amount of difficulty that SoftBank is having in raising the funds to meet the lower tranche ($10bn) of its commitment, it may simply not be possible for this company to continue.”
Our reading: It may not be possible for OpenAI to continue as a company given its unprecedented funding needs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“As a result, SoftBank will likely have to start selling off parts of its valuable holdings in companies like Alibaba and ARM, or, worse still, parts of its ailing investments from its Vision Fund, resulting in a material loss on its underwater deals.”
Our reading: As a result of its OpenAI funding obligations and borrowing constraints, SoftBank will likely have to start selling parts of its holdings in companies like Alibaba and ARM, or parts of its ailing Vision Fund investments, resulting in a material loss on its underwater deals.
No horizon
Qualifier: as a result of funding OpenAI under its borrowing constraints
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“CoreWeave will likely collapse under the weight of its abominable debt, which will lead to a 7%+ revenue drop for NVIDIA at a time when revenue growth has already begun to slow.”
Our reading: After an OpenAI collapse, CoreWeave will likely collapse under its debt, causing NVIDIA a revenue drop of 7% or more.
No horizon
Only if: following OpenAI's collapse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“I can see OpenAI’s failure having a similar systemic effect.”
Our reading: OpenAI's failure could have a systemic effect on tech and markets similar to Lehman Brothers' collapse.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI fails
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“OpenAI has the only meaningful userbase in generative AI, and this entire hype-cycle has been driven by its success, meaning any deterioration (or collapse) of OpenAI will tell the market what I've been saying for over a year: that generative AI is not the next hyper-growth market, and its underlying economics do not make sense.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not the next hyper-growth market and its economics don't make sense; any deterioration of OpenAI will reveal this to the market.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI deteriorates or collapses
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“In simpler terms, even if OpenAI wasn’t running out of money, even if OpenAI wasn’t horrifyingly unprofitable, it also may not have enough GPUs to continue providing its services in a reliable manner.”
Our reading: OpenAI may not have enough GPUs to keep providing its services reliably.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“It's reasonable to believe that OpenAI will, as a result, need to raise in excess of $40 billion in funding a year, though it's reasonable to believe that it will need to raise more along the lines of $50 billion or more a year until it reaches profitability.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely need to raise more than $40 billion, probably $50 billion or more, every year until it is profitable.
No horizon
Qualifier: until it reaches profitability
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“In the event that its costs are as severe as reporting suggests, it’s likely the company will find itself needing to raise more capital — whether through equity (or the weird sort-of equity that it issues) or through debt.”
Our reading: If OpenAI's costs are as severe as reported, it will likely need to raise more capital through equity or debt.
No horizon
Only if: if costs are as severe as reported
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“More likely, Microsoft got what it needed out of OpenAI, which has reached the limit of the models it can develop, and which Microsoft already retains the IP of.”
Our reading: More likely than a desire for OpenAI's independence, Microsoft pulled back because it got what it needed out of OpenAI, which has reached the limit of the models it can develop and whose IP Microsoft already retains.
No horizon
Qualifier: more likely
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“It's reasonable to believe that OpenAI will raise more debt this year, and I'd estimate it does so to the tune of around $5 billion or $6 billion.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely raise around $5-6 billion more in debt in 2025.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“It's unclear how many of the Blackwell GPUs that Oracle has had to purchase in advance, but in the event of any kind of financial collapse at OpenAI, Oracle would likely take a loss of at least a billion dollars, if not several billion dollars.”
Our reading: If OpenAI collapses financially, Oracle will likely lose at least $1 billion, possibly several billion.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI suffers a financial collapse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Though downtime might be an obvious choice, capacity issues at OpenAI will likely manifest in hard limits on what free users can do, some of which I've documented above.”
Our reading: OpenAI's capacity issues will likely show up as hard limits on what free users can do.
No horizon
Qualifier: due to capacity issues
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“With “GPT-5” level models remaining elusive, this picture may not change enormously in the near-term.”
Our reading: With GPT-5-level models still elusive, the poor ROI picture for GenAI may not change enormously in the near term.
No horizon
Qualifier: GPT-5 level models remaining elusive
Source: Poor ROI for GenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“With “GPT-5” level models remaining elusive, this picture may not change enormously in the near-term.”
Our reading: As of April 2025, GPT-5-level models have not yet arrived.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The April 4 announcement alone does not establish release status on April 10, 2025.
Source: Poor ROI for GenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“One reason may be that it is starting to become clear that GenAI is not delivering the ROI (return on investment) people expected.”
Our reading: NVidia's sharp stock decline may be partly because it is becoming clear that GenAI is not delivering the expected return on investment.
No horizon
Qualifier: as a possible reason for NVidia's decline
Source: Poor ROI for GenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Media, get out there and find out what happened.”
Our reading: The media should investigate why AB-501 was gutted.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Just because Meta or OpenAI wants you to believe something doesn’t mean it is true.”
Our reading: Meta or OpenAI wanting people to believe something does not by itself make it true.
No horizon
Source: Deep Learning, Deep Scandal
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The reality, reported or otherwise, is that large language models are no longer living up to expectations, and its purveyors appear to be making dodgy choices to keep that fact from becoming obvious.”
Our reading: LLMs are no longer living up to expectations, and their vendors appear to be making dodgy choices to conceal this.
No horizon
Source: Deep Learning, Deep Scandal
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“OpenAI failed at this (calling their best result GPT-4.5, and recently announcing a further delay on GPT-5); Grok failed at this (Grok 3 is no GPT 5). Google has failed at reaching “GPT-5” level, Anthropic has, too.”
Our reading: As of the post's publication on April 7, 2025, OpenAI, xAI (Grok), Google and Anthropic had each failed to reach what Marcus calls "GPT-5 level" AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: as of April 7, 2025
Source: Deep Learning, Deep Scandal
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“One of the clearest signs of this is the saga of the just-released Llama 4, the latest failed billion (?) dollar attempt by one of the majors to create what we might call GPT-5 level AI.”
Our reading: Meta's Llama 4 is a failed attempt to create GPT-5 level AI.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This assessment does not establish whether Llama 4 met internal targets or expectations.
Source: Deep Learning, Deep Scandal
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“LLMs are not the way. We definitely need something better.”
Our reading: LLMs are not the right path for AI, and better alternative approaches are needed.
No horizon
Source: Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Generative AI may indeed be turning out to be a dud, financially.”
Our reading: Generative AI may be turning out to be a financial dud.
No horizon
Source: Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Every one of my 25 predictions for 2025 still seems to be on track.”
Our reading: As of April 2025, all 25 of Marcus's predictions for 2025 seem to be on track.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems
Source: Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“the financial bubble may be bursting”
Our reading: The AI financial bubble may be bursting as of April 2025.
No horizon
Source: Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And the bubble might possibly finally be deflating.”
Our reading: The generative AI bubble might possibly be deflating as of April 2025.
No horizon
Source: Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Sam Altman can’t be trusted”
Our reading: Sam Altman cannot be trusted.
No horizon
Source: Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Moreover, however you slice it, this need of the AIs for special cajoling before they will think carefully about questions that are presented to them is a serious weakness, and the demand for special prompting tilts the scale.”
Our reading: However you slice it, the AIs' need for special cajoling before they will think carefully about questions presented to them is a serious weakness, and the demand for special prompting tilts the scale.
No horizon
Qualifier: however you slice it
Source: Reports of LLMs mastering math have been greatly exaggerated
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“It is by no means certain that additional user prompts will add much,.”
Our reading: Additional user prompting may not substantially improve reasoning LLMs' performance on such problems.
No horizon
Qualifier: models already designed for complex reasoning
Source: Reports of LLMs mastering math have been greatly exaggerated
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The really important challenge is not to get the AIs to solve more USAMO problems; it is to get them to say “I give up” when they can’t.”
Our reading: The really important challenge is not getting AIs to solve more USAMO problems but getting them to say 'I give up' when they can't solve them.
No horizon
Source: Reports of LLMs mastering math have been greatly exaggerated
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The refusal of these kinds of AI to admit ignorance or incapacity and their obstinate preference for generating incorrect but plausible-looking answers instead are one of their most dangerous characteristics.”
Our reading: The refusal of these kinds of AI (LLMs) to admit ignorance or incapacity, and their obstinate preference for generating incorrect but plausible-looking answers instead, are among their most dangerous characteristics.
No horizon
Scope: these kinds of AI (LLMs like those tested on the USAMO)
Source: Reports of LLMs mastering math have been greatly exaggerated
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Getting AIs to answer “I don’t know” is one of the most important unsolved challenges facing the field.”
Our reading: Getting AIs to answer 'I don't know' is one of the most important unsolved challenges facing the field.
No horizon
Source: Reports of LLMs mastering math have been greatly exaggerated
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If this kind of technology becomes commonly used to answer difficult questions before the problem of generating invalid answers is fixed, we will be in serious trouble.”
Our reading: If LLMs become commonly used for difficult questions before their invalid-answer problem is fixed, society will be in serious trouble.
No horizon
Only if: LLMs become commonly used to answer difficult questions
Source: Reports of LLMs mastering math have been greatly exaggerated
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And, wait for it, the whole thing was probably recommended to them by an LLM:”
Our reading: The Trump administration's tariff-rate formula was probably recommended to it by an LLM.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The near-universal consensus is that President Trump’s new tariff policy (quite possibly partly written by LLMs) is likely to be among the worst economic policies in history.”
Our reading: Trump's April 2025 tariff policy was quite possibly written partly by LLMs.
No horizon
Qualifier: quite possibly
Source: Questions about President Trump from a former psychology professor
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“In a faceoff, though, it might actually beat ChatGPT.”
Our reading: In a faceoff, Eugene Goostman might actually beat ChatGPT.
No horizon
Only if: in a faceoff
Source: AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Because, as I (and many others) have said for years, the Turing Test is a test of human gullibility, not a test of intelligence.”
Our reading: The Turing Test is a test of human gullibility, not a test of intelligence.
No horizon
Qualifier: as he and many others have said for years
Source: AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Fooling people for a few minutes is not the measure of intelligence, and never was.”
Our reading: Fooling people for a few minutes is not the measure of intelligence, and never was.
No horizon
Source: AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“None of these systems, in my judgment, are anywhere near as intelligent as naive audiences might think.”
Our reading: None of the Turing Test chatbots, from ELIZA to ChatGPT 4.5, are anywhere near as intelligent as naive audiences might think.
No horizon
Source: AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Few people in the AI community take the Turing Test seriously, and few people should.”
Our reading: Few people in the AI community take the Turing Test seriously, and few should.
No horizon
Source: AI has (sort of) passed the Turing Test; here’s why that hardly matters
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If the CoreWeave IPO turns out to be a debacle, people may also sour on NVidia, too. Things could get wild, fast.”
Our reading: If the CoreWeave IPO is a debacle, people may sour on NVidia too, and things could get wild quickly.
No horizon
Only if: if the CoreWeave IPO turns out to be a debacle
Source: Unwoven
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If it does go badly, there may well be shockwaves, perhaps affecting the whole AI industry.”
Our reading: If CoreWeave's stock market debut goes badly, there may be shockwaves possibly affecting the whole AI industry.
No horizon
Only if: if CoreWeave's NASDAQ debut goes badly
Source: Unwoven
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But the economics do not and have not ever made sense, relative to the realities of the techonology.”
Our reading: The economics of generative AI do not make sense and never have, given the technology's actual capabilities.
No horizon
Qualifier: relative to the realities of the technology
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I genuinely believe arguments from Stuart Russell and others that AI could someday be a trillion dollar annual market.”
Our reading: AI could someday be a trillion-dollar annual market.
No horizon
Qualifier: someday
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“But so much seems to have been built on dreams.”
Our reading: So much in GenAI seems to have been built on dreams.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Different, yet-to-be-developed approaches, with a firmer connection to the world of symbolic AI (perhaps hybrid neurosymbolic models) might well prove to be vastly more valuable.”
Our reading: New approaches more connected to symbolic AI, perhaps neurosymbolic hybrids, might prove vastly more valuable than GenAI.
No horizon
Qualifier: yet-to-be-developed approaches
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But the use of GenAI will likely continued to be stymied by hallucinations and silly errors.”
Our reading: Use of generative AI will likely continue to be held back by hallucinations and silly errors.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“There are a bunch of reasons to think that the deflation of the bubble may have already started.”
Our reading: The GenAI bubble may already have begun to deflate as of March 2025.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“But unlocking that market will require something new: a different kind of AI that is reliable and trustworthy.”
Our reading: Reaching a trillion-dollar AI market will require a new, reliable and trustworthy kind of AI beyond GenAI.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Only if: unlocking the trillion-dollar market
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Companies like OpenAI may to some degree supplement revenue by selling very private user data to intelligence agencies and the like, to be sure.”
Our reading: Companies like OpenAI may partly supplement revenue by selling private user data to intelligence agencies and similar buyers.
No horizon
Qualifier: to some degree
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“LLMs may ultimately prove to be something like a $$30B or $40B industry, which is not nothing — but they could well also turn out to be an industry that costs double or treble that to run, including data licensing, high-priced staff, massively expensive data centers that may become obsolete quickly, and seemingly endless litigation.”
Our reading: The LLM industry may ultimately be worth around $30-40B in revenue while costing two to three times that to run.
No horizon
Qualifier: ultimately
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It isn't comfortable to continually have to explain to people who are all saying "AI is the future" that the majority of what they are discussing is fictional”
Our reading: Most of what people saying 'AI is the future' discuss is fictional.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Be optimistic if you'd like, but engage with the truth when you do so.”
Our reading: AI optimists should engage with the facts.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“once that narrative fully takes hold, I fear a cascade of events that gores a hole in the side of the stock market and leads to tens of thousands of people losing their jobs.”
Our reading: Once the narrative that only NVIDIA profits from generative AI takes hold, a cascade could badly hit the stock market and cost tens of thousands of jobs.
No horizon
Only if: once the no-profit narrative fully takes hold
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“To choose to believe that this will "all just work out" at this point is willful ignorance and actively refusing to engage with reality.”
Our reading: At this point, choosing to believe that the AI industry's situation will all just work out is willful ignorance and an active refusal to engage with reality.
No horizon
Qualifier: at this point
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“and that generative AI has created a kind of capitalist death cult where nobody wants to admit that they're not making any money”
Our reading: Generative AI has created a kind of capitalist death cult in which nobody wants to admit that they are not making any money.
No horizon
Qualifier: a kind of
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Cautious optimism allows Roose to learn as little as necessary to write his column, knowing that the market wants AI to work, even as facts scream that it doesn't.”
Our reading: The facts show that AI doesn't work, even though the market wants it to.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I, personally, believe that there should be.”
Our reading: There should be repercussions for journalists being too optimistic about technologies like AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“What we are witnessing is a systemic failure, not the beginnings of a revolution.”
Our reading: The generative AI boom is a systemic failure, not the start of a revolution.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I fear that we've built our economy on top of NVIDIA, which is dependent on the continued investment in GPUs from companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, one of which has materially pulled back from data center expansion.”
Our reading: Zitron fears that we have built our economy on top of NVIDIA, which depends on continued GPU investment from companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, one of which has materially pulled back from data center expansion.
No horizon
Qualifier: I fear
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“In reality, this company is a dog, and will show the markets exactly how little money or growth is left in generative AI.”
Our reading: CoreWeave is a dog and will show the markets exactly how little money or growth is left in generative AI.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Which makes sense, because the chances of Microsoft or Meta becoming insolvent in the immediate future are slim, whereas OpenAI’s entire existence depends on its ability to raise more money than any startup in history, indefinitely, while also never making a profit.”
Our reading: OpenAI's entire existence depends on its ability to raise more money than any startup in history, indefinitely, while never making a profit, whereas Microsoft or Meta are unlikely to become insolvent in the immediate future.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“And, as readers of this newsletter will know, I don’t rate its chances.”
Our reading: OpenAI is unlikely to sustain its ability to keep raising money indefinitely and survive.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“For the sake of both your and my sanity, I'm going to focus on just these loans, as I believe they are, on their own, enough to potentially destroy CoreWeave.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's two DDTL loans alone could potentially destroy the company.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“It doesn’t. And I think we’re about to see what happens when the world’s biggest startup becomes desperate.”
Our reading: The author thinks we are about to see what happens when OpenAI, the world's biggest startup, becomes desperate.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Regardless, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where its debt repayments surpass its entire 2024 revenue.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's debt repayments could surpass its entire 2024 revenue.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Put simply, this dependence on a handful of hyperscalers represents a fundamental — and potentially fatal — vulnerability.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's dependence on a few hyperscalers is a fundamental and potentially fatal vulnerability.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Furthermore, CoreWeave's underlying financials are so dramatically unstable that it's unclear how this company will last the next six months.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's financials are so unstable that it is unclear whether it will survive the next six months.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“And given that the company recently exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, it’s unlikely to receive capital on favorable terms.”
Our reading: Core Scientific is unlikely to raise capital on favorable terms after its recent bankruptcy.
No horizon
Qualifier: having recently exited Chapter 11
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“These mob-like terms suggest Blackstone and Magnetar don't necessarily trust CoreWeave to survive, and intend to rip out whatever guts are left if it doesn't.”
Our reading: The DDTL 2.0 loan terms suggest Blackstone and Magnetar don't necessarily trust CoreWeave to survive and intend to rip out whatever guts are left if it doesn't.
No horizon
Qualifier: terms 'suggest'
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“While I can only hypothesize, I believe that this move is Microsoft's attempt to disconnect from OpenAI, dumping its exclusive relationship and canceling its own capacity expansion along with contracts with CoreWeave”
Our reading: The author hypothesizes that Microsoft dropping its exclusive relationship with OpenAI and canceling its own capacity expansion and CoreWeave contracts is an attempt to disconnect from OpenAI.
No horizon
Qualifier: I can only hypothesize, I believe
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“As I hypothesized a few weeks ago, I believe that outside of OpenAI, the generative AI industry is terribly small, a point that CoreWeave only underlines.”
Our reading: The author believes, as he hypothesized a few weeks earlier, that outside of OpenAI the generative AI industry is terribly small, a point CoreWeave underlines.
No horizon
Scope: outside of OpenAI
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“If generative AI had this incredible demand — both from companies looking to integrate it and users looking to use it — CoreWeave would be making far, far more money, have a far more diverse customer base, and, if I'm honest, not have to take out more than five times its revenue in burdensome loans with loan shark-level interest rates.”
Our reading: If generative AI had incredible demand from both companies and users, CoreWeave would be making far, far more money, have a far more diverse customer base, and not need to take out more than five times its revenue in burdensome loans at loan shark-level interest rates.
No horizon
Only if: if generative AI had this incredible demand from companies and users
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“NVIDIA's remarkable GPU sales have been conflated with the success of generative AI, rather than seen as a sign of desperation, and a signal of how willing big tech is to spend billions of dollars on something if they think their competition is doing so.”
Our reading: NVIDIA's GPU sales reflect big tech's competitive desperation rather than generative AI's success.
No horizon
Source: CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Anthropic needs to answer some hard questions here.”
Our reading: Anthropic should answer hard questions about the gap between its claims about AI coding and its hiring of coders.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I stressed, for example, there would likely be an ongoing need to have humans to debug, maintain and systems.”
Our reading: There would likely be an ongoing need for humans to debug and maintain systems.
No horizon