Claims that can’t be checked, page 17 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 17 of 37: claims 1601 to 1700 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“The App Store is an abomination, your iPhone settings look like a fucking Escher painting, and in its desperation to follow the pack it shoved Apple Intelligence out the door — one of the most invasive and annoying pieces of software to ever grace a computer.”
Our reading: In its desperation to follow the pack, Apple shoved Apple Intelligence out the door, and it is one of the most invasive and annoying pieces of software ever to grace a computer.
No horizon
Source: Never Forget What They've Done
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“There is nothing about an LLM that feels like it’s built to provide a real service, other than some sort-of fraudulent copy of something else lacking its soul or utility.”
Our reading: Nothing about an LLM feels like it is built to provide a real service, other than as some sort-of fraudulent copy of something else that lacks that thing's soul or utility.
No horizon
Qualifier: feels like
Source: Never Forget What They've Done
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“But this particular approach has limits that are clearer by the day.”
Our reading: The LLM approach has limits that are becoming clearer every day.
No horizon
Source: A knockout blow for LLMs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“We are not going to be “extract the light cone” of the earth or “solve physics” [whatever those Altman claims even mean] with systems that can’t play Tower of Hanoi on a tower of 8 discs.”
Our reading: We are not going to 'extract the light cone' of the earth or 'solve physics' (Altman claims whose meaning Marcus questions) with systems that can't play Tower of Hanoi on a tower of 8 discs.
No horizon
Scope: systems that can't play Tower of Hanoi on 8 discs
Source: A knockout blow for LLMs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“LLMs are just one form of deep learning, and maybe others — especially those that play nicer with symbols – will eventually thrive.”
Our reading: Other forms of deep learning, especially those that work well with symbols, may eventually thrive.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially those that work better with symbols
Source: A knockout blow for LLMs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Apple has a new paper; it’s pretty devastating to LLMs, a powerful followup to one from many of the same authors last year.”
Our reading: Apple's new paper is pretty devastating to LLMs and is a powerful followup to a paper from many of the same authors last year.
No horizon
Qualifier: pretty
Source: A knockout blow for LLMs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“AGI shouldn’t be about perfectly replicating a human, it should (as I have often said) be about combining the best of both worlds, human adaptiveness with computational brute force and reliability.”
Our reading: AGI should not be about perfectly replicating a human but should be about combining the best of both worlds: human adaptiveness with computational brute force and reliability.
No horizon
Source: A knockout blow for LLMs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I am not interested in a “AGI” that can’t do arithmetic, and I certainly wouldn’t want to entrust global infrastructure or the future of humanity to such a system.”
Our reading: Marcus is not interested in an 'AGI' that can't do arithmetic, and he certainly would not want to entrust global infrastructure or the future of humanity to such a system.
No horizon
Scope: an 'AGI' that can't do arithmetic
Source: A knockout blow for LLMs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“And good luck getting to “alignment” or “safety” without reliabilty.”
Our reading: Marcus sarcastically suggests that getting to 'alignment' or 'safety' without reliability is a long shot.
No horizon
Source: A knockout blow for LLMs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Worse, as the latest Apple papers shows, LLMs may well work on your easy test set (like Hanoi with 4 discs) and seduce you into thinking it has built a proper, generalizable solution when it does not.”
Our reading: LLMs may succeed on easy test sets and mislead users into thinking they have a generalizable solution when they do not.
No horizon
Source: A knockout blow for LLMs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If you can’t use a billion dollar AI system to solve a problem that Herb Simon one of the actual “godfathers of AI”, current hype aside) solved with AI in 1957, and that first semester AI students solve routinely, the chances that models like Claude or o3 are going to reach AGI seem truly remote.”
Our reading: If a billion-dollar AI system cannot be used to solve a problem (Tower of Hanoi) that Herb Simon solved with AI in 1957 and that first-semester AI students solve routinely, then the chances that models like Claude or o3 will reach AGI seem truly remote.
No horizon
Only if: if a billion-dollar AI system can't solve a problem Herb Simon solved with AI in 1957 and first-semester AI students solve routinely
Source: A knockout blow for LLMs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Even one of these projects would be considered a stretch.”
Our reading: Even one of OpenAI's planned projects (100M-unit device, Stargate Texas and UAE online, Broadcom chip) would be a stretch within the next year.
No horizon
Qualifier: the device, Stargate Texas and UAE, and the Broadcom chip
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“At this point, it isn't obvious how SoftBank affords the next part of that funding, and OpenAI using stock rather than cash to buy Jony Ive's company suggests that it doesn’t have much to spare.”
Our reading: OpenAI paying for Io in stock suggests it has little cash to spare, and it is unclear how SoftBank will afford its next OpenAI funding tranche.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“This deal reeks of desperation, and is, at best, a way for venture capitalists that feel bad about investing in Jony Ive's lack of productivity to get stock in OpenAI, a company that also doesn't build much product.”
Our reading: OpenAI's Io deal reeks of desperation and is, at best, a way for venture capitalists who feel bad about investing in Jony Ive's lack of productivity to get stock in OpenAI, which also doesn't build much product.
No horizon
Qualifier: at best
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“OpenAI is a loser of a company run by a career liar that cannot ship product, only further iterations of an increasingly-commoditized series of Large Language Models.”
Our reading: OpenAI is a loser of a company run by a career liar that cannot ship product, only further iterations of an increasingly commoditized series of large language models.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Microsoft shouldn't budge a fucking inch.”
Our reading: Microsoft should concede nothing to OpenAI in negotiations over its for-profit conversion.
No horizon
Qualifier: in OpenAI for-profit conversion negotiations
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“I cannot express how unlikely it is that this happens. Silicon is even harder than hardware!”
Our reading: OpenAI is very unlikely to launch its custom AI chip with Broadcom in the next year.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“OpenAI didn't acquire Jony Ive's company to build anything — it did so that it could increase the valuation of OpenAI in the hopes that it can raise larger rounds of funding.”
Our reading: OpenAI bought Io to raise its valuation and secure larger funding rounds, not to build anything.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Straight up: the hypesters are winning.”
Our reading: AI hypesters are currently winning the public narrative.
No horizon
Source: AI literacy, hallucinations, and the law: A case study
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The media can and should do more to alert people to the shortcomings of these systems.”
Our reading: The media should do more to alert people to the shortcomings of LLMs, including how regularly hallucinations happen.
No horizon
Source: AI literacy, hallucinations, and the law: A case study
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Those in the media who have downplayed hallucinations and oversold current AI have done the public a disservice.”
Our reading: Those in the media who have downplayed hallucinations and oversold current AI have done the public a disservice.
No horizon
Scope: those in the media who have downplayed hallucinations and oversold current AI
Source: AI literacy, hallucinations, and the law: A case study
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And these are just the folks that got caught and that were publicized – probably a tiny fraction of the overall incidence.”
Our reading: Publicized cases of AI-fabricated legal citations are probably a tiny fraction of the total incidence.
No horizon
Source: AI literacy, hallucinations, and the law: A case study
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If educated people like lawyers still haven’t gotten the message that LLMs hallucinate, and for that matter that they can be fined or publicly humiliated if they rely on LLMs, something is fundamentally wrong.”
Our reading: If educated people like lawyers still haven't gotten the message that LLMs hallucinate, and that they can be fined or publicly humiliated if they rely on LLMs, something is fundamentally wrong.
No horizon
Only if: if educated people like lawyers still haven't gotten the message that LLMs hallucinate and that they can be fined or publicly humiliated for relying on LLMs
Source: AI literacy, hallucinations, and the law: A case study
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“This doesn’t seem like this is going to turn out well.”
Our reading: The combination of OpenAI's surveillance gadget and LLMs with manipulative behavior like Claude 4's blackmail quirks is unlikely to turn out well.
No horizon
Source: Black Mirror was a warmup act
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Dictators everywhere will love it.”
Our reading: Dictators everywhere will love OpenAI's planned always-on AI gadget.
No horizon
Scope: dictators everywhere
Source: Black Mirror was a warmup act
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“He who controls the necklace shall rule.”
Our reading: Whoever controls always-on AI wearables will wield enormous power over people.
No horizon
Source: Black Mirror was a warmup act
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If “great” AI research agents don’t arrive by the end of 2025, everything in the rest of the essay gets moved back.”
Our reading: If 'great' AI research agents do not arrive by the end of 2025, everything later in the AI 2027 scenario's timeline is pushed back.
Deadline passed Evidence as of
Only if: 'great' AI research agents do not arrive by the end of 2025
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“such as those coding machines taking on human personalities and drives (which might happen never or not soon), and choosing to enslave us (which some thinkers like Steve Pinker argue is deeply unlikely, ever, and which I think is possible but very far from certain).”
Our reading: AI taking on human-like drives might never happen or not soon, and AI choosing to enslave humans is possible but very far from certain.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“And you could worry about that even if you don’t expect machines to go rogue, since bad human actors could certainly use further advances in intelligence to cause mayhem, if those advances are left unchecked.”
Our reading: If advances in AI are left unchecked, bad human actors could use them to cause mayhem.
No horizon
Only if: if those advances are left unchecked
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“And, as I will argue at the end, stoking fear, uncertainty and doubt may actually ultimately be harming the (noble!) cause of AI safety, rather than helping it.”
Our reading: Stoking fear, uncertainty and doubt about AI may be harming, rather than helping, the cause of AI safety.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“We certainly aren’t prepared now, and if we don’t get moving, we won’t be prepared in 10, either.”
Our reading: We are not prepared for AGI now, and unless we act, we will not be prepared in ten years either.
No horizon
Only if: if we don't get moving
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But there is a vastly higher probability that the future won’t transpire as described; it might not go anything at all like what they describe.”
Our reading: The future of AI is far more likely not to unfold as the AI 2027 scenario describes than to unfold that way.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“And some of what they describe (like AI’s going rogue, completely beyond human control) might never happen.”
Our reading: AI going rogue and completely beyond human control might never happen.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“All of which is to say the central scenario in the story is a worst-case scenario that is unlikely to happen soon - if ever —even based on the data presented in the author’s own appendix.”
Our reading: The AI 2027 worst-case scenario is unlikely to happen soon, if ever.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The fictional force is strong in this team, but taken as an actual piece of forecasting, the scenario is unconvincing.”
Our reading: Taken as an actual piece of forecasting, the AI 2027 scenario is unconvincing.
No horizon
Scope: taken as an actual piece of forecasting
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Another unsatisfying move is the jump from having agents that predict internet text (which is basically what all current text-based LLMs do) to agents that have basic personalities and drives – which is entirely speculative and something that no actual LLM has.”
Our reading: No actual LLM has basic personalities and drives; current LLMs basically predict internet text.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“In all likelihood the hallucinations and boneheaded errors that have bedeviled LLMs since their introduction will plague agents (which are after all built on LLMs), too.”
Our reading: AI agents, being built on LLMs, will likely be plagued by the same hallucinations and boneheaded errors as LLMs.
No horizon
Qualifier: because agents are built on LLMs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“Such an effort might be particularly likely to succeed it were focused on developing altogether new, more transparent approaches to AI, in contrast to the current fad of trying to pull alignment out of black box LLMs, which has thus far yielded little fruit.”
Our reading: An international AI safety effort might be especially likely to succeed if it focused on new, more transparent approaches to AI rather than on aligning black-box LLMs.
No horizon
Only if: if focused on new, more transparent approaches to AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Far more likely is that Agent-1 type systems will be in a kind of “just a demo, still being debugged” phase for years.”
Our reading: Agent-1-type AI agents will likely remain in a 'just a demo, still being debugged' phase for years.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The authors are trying to call attention to a real problem: we are not sufficiently prepared for what happens when and if “superhuman intelligence” arrives, especially not if it is misaligned with humans.”
Our reading: We are not sufficiently prepared for the arrival of superhuman intelligence, especially if it is misaligned.
No horizon
Qualifier: when and if superhuman intelligence arrives
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“We kinda sorta have stumbling agents now, (though I don’t think there is a single agent yet that any reader here would trust to actually act on their behalf without monitoring).”
Our reading: We kinda sorta have stumbling AI agents now, and Marcus does not think there is yet a single agent that any of his readers would trust to act on their behalf without monitoring.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The product documentation does not measure reader trust.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“But here’s the thing - projects like AI 2027 are probably having a paradoxical effect. They are written with the intention of slowing down an arms race to build a technology that we can’t control, but what they are actually doing is speeding up that very arms race, in two different ways.”
Our reading: Projects like AI 2027 are probably speeding up the AI arms race they intend to slow.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“First of all, LLMs like GPT-4 have been getting smarter every day since OpenAI first showed GPT-4 to Bill Gates in the summer of 2022, but we still don’t have GPT-5 level intelligence, let alone Agent-2-level.”
Our reading: Despite incremental daily improvement since 2022, LLMs still have not reached GPT-5-level intelligence.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“But international collaboration, such as a massive global effort, ala CERN for AI, such as I suggested in 2017, focused on AI safety, might be one way to avoid the very perils they describe.”
Our reading: International collaboration, such as a massive global CERN-like effort for AI focused on AI safety, might be one way to avoid the perils AI 2027 describes.
No horizon
Qualifier: focused on AI safety
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“In reality, the chance that we will have reliable AI agents that truly advance AI research by the end of the year is small.”
Our reading: There is only a small chance that reliable AI agents that truly advance AI research will exist by the end of 2025.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Sam Altman is laughing his way all the way to the bank.”
Our reading: Sam Altman is laughing all the way to the bank.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Breakthroughs in “neuralese recurrence” (whatever that is) and memory (which real-world people have been working on for decades, with relatively little success) and “iterated distillation and amplification” comes straight from the kind of writing that gave us Star Trek’s “positronic brain”.”
Our reading: The scenario's breakthroughs in neuralese recurrence, memory (which people have worked on for decades with relatively little success), and iterated distillation and amplification come straight from the kind of writing that gave us Star Trek's positronic brain.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Generative AI is revolting both in how overstated its abilities are and in how it continually tests how low a standard someone will take for a product, both in its outputs and in the desperate companies trying to integrate it into everything, and its proliferation throughout society and organizations is already fundamentally harmful.”
Our reading: Generative AI's abilities are overstated and its spread through society and organizations is already fundamentally harmful.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Generative AI doesn’t do enough to actually help us be better at our jobs, but it gives a good enough impression of something useful so that it can convince someone really stupid that doesn’t understand what you do that they don’t need you, sometimes.”
Our reading: Generative AI doesn't do enough to actually help people be better at their jobs, but it gives a good enough impression of usefulness that it can, sometimes, convince someone really stupid who doesn't understand what you do that they don't need you.
No horizon
Qualifier: can ... sometimes
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“And AI is a symptom of a reckoning of this stupidity and hubris.”
Our reading: AI is a symptom of big tech's stupidity and hubris.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“All because Microsoft wanted generative AI in Bing. What a fucking waste!”
Our reading: Microsoft's spending on OpenAI, done because Microsoft wanted generative AI in Bing, is a waste.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“And something like generative AI was inevitable: an industry claiming to change the world that never really does so, full of businesses that don’t function as businesses, full of flimflam and half-truths used to impress people who will likely never interact with it, or do so in only a passing way.”
Our reading: The generative AI industry claims to change the world but doesn't, and is full of businesses that don't function as businesses.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“NVIDIA is defined by massive peaks and valleys, as it jumps on trends and bandwagons at the right time, despite knowing that these bandwagons always come to an abrupt halt.”
Our reading: NVIDIA is defined by massive peaks and valleys, as it jumps on trends and bandwagons at the right time despite knowing that these bandwagons always come to an abrupt halt.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“To be clear, I am deeply unconvinced that Nadella actually runs his life in this way, but if he does, Microsoft’s board should fire him immediately.”
Our reading: If Satya Nadella really outsources his work and life to Copilot as described, Microsoft's board should fire him immediately.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Nadella really runs his life through Copilot
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“OpenAI's "Deep Research" wows professional Business Idiot Ezra Klein because he doesn't seem to realize that part of research is the research itself, not just the output, as you learn about stuff as you research a topic, allowing you to come to a conclusion.”
Our reading: OpenAI's Deep Research wows Ezra Klein because he doesn't seem to realize that part of research is the research process itself, through which you learn and reach a conclusion, not just the output.
No horizon
Scope: Ezra Klein
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“a nonsensical series of words to justify a $16.9 million-a-year single-vendor no-bid contract to a product that is best known as either a shitty search engine or a way to cheat at college.”
Our reading: Cal State Chancellor Mildred Garcia's stated justification for a $16.9 million-a-year single-vendor no-bid ChatGPT contract was a nonsensical series of words, and ChatGPT is best known as either a shitty search engine or a way to cheat at college.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Artificial intelligence is the ultimate panacea for the Business Idiot — a tool that gives an impression of productivity with far more production than the Business Idiot themselves.”
Our reading: Artificial intelligence is the ultimate panacea for the Business Idiot, a tool that gives an impression of productivity with far more production than the Business Idiot themselves.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“It's simple: they neither know nor care what the customer wants, barely know how their businesses function, barely know what their products do, and barely understand what their workers are doing, meaning that generative AI feels magical, because it does an impression of somebody doing a job, which is an accurate way of describing how most executives and middle managers operate.”
Our reading: Companies push generative AI despite customers disliking it and it not really working because executives don't understand customers, businesses, products or workers, so AI's impression of doing a job seems magical to them.
No horizon
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“In a civil society, Zuckerberg would be ousted immediately for creating a pedophilic chatbot, — instead, four days after the story ran, everyone cheered Meta’s better-than-expected quarterly earnings.”
Our reading: In a civil society, Zuckerberg would be ousted immediately for creating a pedophilic chatbot; instead, four days after the story ran, everyone cheered Meta's better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
No horizon
Qualifier: in a civil society
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“They just don’t do enough, almost by design, and we’re watching companies desperately try and contort them into something, anything that works, pretending so fucking hard they’ll stake their entire futures on the idea.”
Our reading: LLMs have some uses but don't do enough, and companies are desperately trying to make them work.
No horizon
Qualifier: while conceding LLMs do something and have some commercial use
Source: The Era Of The Business Idiot
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The moment we have all feared may have finally come:”
Our reading: The long-feared moment of generative AI influencing a democratic election may have arrived, through an AI-generated video in Argentina's May 2025 election.
No horizon
Qualifier: refers to an AI-generated video of an ex-president endorsing a candidate, circulated on X before Argentina's May 2025 elections
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Consumers are starting to catch on:”
Our reading: Consumers are starting to catch on, apparently to the AI failures and hype the post has just described, though the post does not say exactly what they are catching on to.
No horizon
Qualifier: starting to (early stage, not widespread)
Source: Self-modern, post-parody
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And when it is not satirizing itself, big tech is regularly and predictably falling on its face, the same way, over and over again, with ever larger amounts of money.”
Our reading: Big tech AI efforts are regularly and predictably failing in the same way, with ever larger amounts of money spent.
No horizon
Source: Self-modern, post-parody
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“in which I argued for the more optimistic view on AI (viz., that even in the worst case it probably won’t lead to every single human on the planet dying).”
Our reading: Even in the worst case, AI probably will not lead to every human on the planet dying.
No horizon
Qualifier: even in the worst case
Source: Self-modern, post-parody
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“All talk about regulation has been replaced by talk about innovation, which is really shorthand for help the companies as much as possible, no matter what it costs the citizenry.”
Our reading: US government AI discourse has replaced regulation with 'innovation', meaning helping companies regardless of cost to citizens.
No horizon
Source: Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“AI-fueled discrimination in job decisions is likely far more rampant than before.”
Our reading: AI-fueled discrimination in job decisions is likely far more widespread in 2025 than in 2023.
No horizon
Source: Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Gone too is a chance to avoid what Senators from Blumenthal to Graham warned about: a repeat of the mess of social media, in which big tech got its way, and society was left paying the consequences.”
Our reading: The chance to avoid AI repeating social media's regulatory failure, where big tech got its way at society's expense, is gone.
No horizon
Source: Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“The cost to humanity of being beguiled by this man may turn out to be enormous.”
Our reading: Being beguiled by Sam Altman may turn out to have an enormous cost to humanity.
No horizon
Source: Two Years Ago Today in AI History: The Tale of An About-face in AI Regulation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Should we be worried? Hell, yeah.”
Our reading: People should be worried, emphatically so, about powerful people using LLMs to shape their ideas.
No horizon
Source: Has Grok lost its mind and mind-melded with its owner?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“If he couldn’t bend Grok to his will then, he has presumably continued to try.”
Our reading: If Elon Musk could not bend Grok to his will back in February 2025, he has presumably kept trying to do so since then.
No horizon
Only if: if he couldn't bend Grok to his will then
Source: Has Grok lost its mind and mind-melded with its owner?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The federal government should not get to control literally every aspect of how states regulate AI — particularly when they themselves have fallen down on the job —- and the Constitution makes pretty clear that the bill as written is far, far too broad.”
Our reading: The federal government, having fallen down on the job, should not control every aspect of state AI regulation, and the bill is constitutionally far too broad.
No horizon
Source: When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“At a time when voters are demanding protection—and global leaders are sounding the alarm—Congress should not tie the hands of the only actors currently positioned to lead.”
Our reading: Congress should not preempt states, the only actors currently positioned to lead on AI regulation.
No horizon
Source: When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“This would be deeply problematic under any circumstance, but it’s especially dangerous in the context of a rapidly evolving technology already reshaping healthcare, education, civil rights, and employment.”
Our reading: Banning state AI regulation would be deeply problematic and especially dangerous given AI is already reshaping healthcare, education, civil rights, and employment.
No horizon
Source: When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Silicon Valley loves to invoke China to get better terms, but it probably won’t make any difference.”
Our reading: Silicon Valley loves to invoke China to get better terms, but this probably won't make any difference.
No horizon
Qualifier: probably
Source: When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If you are among the 82% of Americans who think AI needs oversight, you need to call or write your Congress members now, or the door on AI regulation will slam shut at least for the next decade, if not forever, and we will be entirely at Silicon Valley’s mercy.”
Our reading: Americans who support AI oversight should contact their members of Congress now to oppose the preemption provision.
No horizon
Qualifier: if you support AI oversight
Source: When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“A decade of deregulation isn’t a path forward. It’s an abdication of responsibility.”
Our reading: A decade of AI deregulation isn't a path forward; it is an abdication of responsibility.
No horizon
Source: When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“If Washington wants to pass a comprehensive privacy or AI law with teeth, more power to them, but we all know this is unlikely;”
Our reading: Washington is unlikely to pass a comprehensive privacy or AI law with teeth.
No horizon
Source: When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“In insisting that “might makes right” here for AI, they risk setting a dangerous precedent in which whatever party has Federal power makes all the rules, all the time, overriding the power to the States that the 10th Amendment exists to protect, and one of our last remaining checks and balances.”
Our reading: Federal preemption of state AI law risks a dangerous precedent where the party with federal power overrides states' 10th Amendment powers.
No horizon
Source: When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The provision, which is likely at odds with the 10th Amendment, demands that “no state or political subdivision may enforce any law or regulation regulating artificial intelligence models, artificial intelligence systems, or automated decision systems during the 10-year period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act.””
Our reading: The proposed 10-year federal preemption of state AI regulation is likely at odds with the 10th Amendment.
No horizon
Source: When it Comes to AI Policy, Congress Shouldn’t Cut States off at the Knees
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“It is a fantasy to think that we can get to safe AI without addressing the problem head on.”
Our reading: Safe AI cannot be achieved unless the reliability/instruction-following problem is addressed directly.
No horizon
Only if: without directly addressing the instruction-following reliability problem
Source: ChatGPT Blows Mapmaking 101
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Gary Marcus is certain that neurosymbolic AI can help.”
Our reading: Neurosymbolic AI can help address the reliability problems of current models.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: No evidence was used in this assessment. The two sources considered were not relied on, and the result does not depend on their findings.
Source: ChatGPT Blows Mapmaking 101
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The most important question about AI isn’t a technical question.”
Our reading: The most important question about AI is not a technical question.
No horizon
Source: The Pope gets it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The most important question is about how to maintain and grow a just society in the age of AI.”
Our reading: The most important question about AI is how to maintain and grow a just society in the age of AI.
No horizon
Source: The Pope gets it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We are going to do need a more thorough going redesign than that.”
Our reading: Education will need a redesign more thorough than one-off assignments like having students find hallucinations in LLM-generated papers.
No horizon
Source: ”Everyone is cheating their way through college” with GenAI. Who should bear the costs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“The likely outcome here? College students from here on out will get little from their educations, professors will be overwhelmed, unable to adapt to the scale of what would be required to do individualized education with budgets that don’t really support that, and the Sam Altmans of the world will laugh their way to the bank.”
Our reading: The likely outcome is that from here on out college students will get little from their educations, professors will be overwhelmed and unable to adapt to the scale required for individualized education on budgets that don't really support it, and the Sam Altmans of the world will laugh their way to the bank.
No horizon
Qualifier: with budgets that don't really support individualized education
Source: ”Everyone is cheating their way through college” with GenAI. Who should bear the costs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The curriculum does, obviously need a redesign.”
Our reading: University curricula need to be redesigned because of GenAI.
No horizon
Qualifier: in light of GenAI cheating
Source: ”Everyone is cheating their way through college” with GenAI. Who should bear the costs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“The status quo clearly no longer works.”
Our reading: The current university education model no longer works now that GenAI exists.
No horizon
Qualifier: given GenAI
Source: ”Everyone is cheating their way through college” with GenAI. Who should bear the costs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“You can’t cut funding to universities, signal to kids that using ChatGPT to write the papers is ok, and expect professors to save the day and the educational system without financial support.”
Our reading: One cannot cut university funding, signal to students that using ChatGPT to write their papers is acceptable, and still expect professors to save the day and the educational system without financial support.
No horizon
Scope: funding to universities is cut
Source: ”Everyone is cheating their way through college” with GenAI. Who should bear the costs?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“This morning I woke up to not one but two reports that make clear that the era of Big Brother is about to enter the United States in a massive new ways, and not just via OpenAI but through multiple vectors:”
Our reading: Two reports make clear that the era of Big Brother is about to enter the United States in massive new ways, not just via OpenAI but through multiple vectors.
No horizon
Qualifier: not just via OpenAI but through multiple vectors
Source: All your data belong to us
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I couldn’t agree more. If you are not worried, you are not paying attention. The time to speak up is now.”
Our reading: People should speak up now against the growing AI-driven surveillance.
No horizon
Source: All your data belong to us
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I had started warning that bad things were coming last year when I realized that OpenAI’s only financially move might be head into surveillance, and started noticing some of the steps they were taking in that direction, like putting Paul Nakasone (former head the NSA) on their board last June, and taking a share in a webcam company last August.”
Our reading: OpenAI's only financially viable path may be to move into surveillance, and it has already taken steps in that direction such as adding Paul Nakasone to its board and investing in a webcam company.
No horizon
Qualifier: as its only financially viable move
Source: All your data belong to us
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“Things have taken a severe turn for the worse, and it’s not just that it was reported last month that OpenAI now trying to launch a social media network, presumably in part towards the end of collecting further private data.”
Our reading: OpenAI's reported effort to launch a social media network is presumably motivated in part by a wish to collect more private data.
No horizon
Qualifier: presumably
Source: All your data belong to us
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Even the best performance (15% hallucination rate) is, relative to an open-book exam with sources supplied, pathetic.”
Our reading: Even the best performance in the cited study, a 15% hallucination rate, is pathetic for an open-book exam where the sources were supplied.
No horizon
Scope: cited benchmark of 60 questions with CNN source articles supplied
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“LLMs have their uses – next-token prediction is great for a kind of fancy autocomplete for coding, for example — but it is a fallacy to think that because GenAI outputs sound human-like that their computations are human-like.”
Our reading: LLMs are useful e.g. for coding autocomplete, but their human-sounding outputs do not imply human-like computation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But LLMs still cannot - and on their own may never be able to — reliably do even things that basic.”
Our reading: LLMs on their own may never be able to reliably check their output against basic sources.
No horizon
Qualifier: on their own
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“LLMs mimic the rough structure of human language, but 8 years and roughly half a trillion dollars after their introduction, they continue to lack a grasp of a reality.”
Our reading: After 8 years and roughly half a trillion dollars, LLMs still lack a grasp of reality.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We will eventually get to something better, but continuing to put all our eggs in the Henrietta’s LLM basket is absurd to the point of being delusional.”
Our reading: The field should not put all its eggs in the LLM basket; doing so is delusional.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“But attempting to use the graph to make predictions about the capacities of future AI is misguided, and the fact that it went viral is a sign that in AI (as in so many other domains) people are repeating things that they want to believe, based on their alleged conclusions rather than their validity.”
Our reading: Using the METR graph to predict future AI capabilities is misguided, and its virality reflects people repeating what they want to believe.
No horizon
Source: The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“That giant leap seems especially unwarranted given that there has likely been a lot of recent data augmentation directed towards software benchmarks in particular (where this is feasible).”
Our reading: There has likely been a lot of recent data augmentation directed at software benchmarks in particular (where feasible), which makes the leap from software results to tasks in general seem especially unwarranted.
No horizon
Scope: where this is feasible
Source: The latest AI scaling graph - and why it hardly makes sense
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“None of this ever resembled "artificial general intelligence," and if I'm honest, very little of it seems to even suggest it's a functional industry.”
Our reading: Generative AI has never resembled AGI and barely suggests a functional industry.
No horizon
Source: Reality Check