Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Changes, page 20 of 37

Every substantive change to the register, newest first. Speaker events record what the people covered said or changed. Site events record what this site published, corrected, flagged, or withdrew. The two never share a label.

Substantive changes (7383)

Page 20 of 37: changes 3801 to 4000 of 7383, newest first. Dates are when the change was recorded.

  1. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Inferring sentience in AI systems directly from their outputs is naive.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-richard-dawkins-and-the-claude-delusion-0c9460-a1.

  2. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Remote driving is unlikely to work well enough as a long-term solution on public roads because data communications are not stable enough.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-fdd09a-a1.

  3. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Waymo is probably better, but how much better is anybody's guess.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-e4dd88-a1.

  4. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    No AGI fantasy so far has held up against the real world.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-e06ccb-a1.

  5. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    It is quite possible no company will profit from remote-assisted driving anytime soon.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-d62cc3-a1.

  6. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Remotely-assisted driving is semi-autonomy, not true autonomy; it might save money, though the author doubts it; and it has literally nothing to do with AGI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-d0c9c3-a1.

  7. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLMs in safety-critical domains like medicine may disappoint, requiring humans in the loop for a very long time.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-96cc26-a1.

  8. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-6a5895

    The two reviews differ: anthropic forecast_outcome/open_horizon/unresolved, openai forecast_outcome/open_horizon/not_adjudicable.

  9. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-683b11

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: Some requests resolved automatically, and Cruise said human advisors generally supplied wayfinding guidance rather than driving remotely (e1). | The reported assistance figure of “2–4% of the time on average” has no defined denominator..

  10. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Driver-assist systems like Tesla's may persist while occasionally causing fatal accidents due to unreliability.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-6798de-a1.

  11. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-50162b

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  12. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Within a few years the self-driving car industry will likely be seen as an epic failure, defeated by outliers and AI's inadequate reasoning.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-38dff4-a1.

  13. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If true self-driving is this hard despite the data collected and $100B+ invested, any dreams of AGI happening soon are likely wildly unrealistic.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-rethinking-driverless-cars-1e98ef-a1.

  14. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-f9550e

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: Rationale: "the April 2023 DINOv2 paper ... reports leading general-purpose visual-feature performance [e2]" — the quoted e2 text only shows a ViT-g backbone used for distillation, not benchmark leadership. | e2 explanation: "reports leading general-purpose feature performance across image and pixel benchmarks" — not shown in the quoted evidence..

  15. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Current next-token prediction models have remarkable abilities and weaknesses whose scope is not well understood.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-c4dfd5-a1.

  16. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-b46388

    e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context; e2 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context; e3 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context

  17. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-98f0a0

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  18. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-965273

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful; overclaims: e2 explanation: "the factuality comparison also favored GPT-4" — the quoted abstract only says LLM-generated summaries; GPT-4 is not named in the evidence shown..

  19. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-919692

    e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context

  20. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    There is zero justification for claiming that the current technology has achieved general intelligence.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-8eb1f4-a1.

  21. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    No single AI technique is likely ever to be a silver bullet.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-6a50dc-a1.

  22. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AGI is more likely than not still at least a few paradigm shifts away.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-426395-a1.

  23. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Current systems are reliable enough to be useful in some applications, but far fewer than often claimed.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-2108c3-a1.

  24. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-19efa3

    The openai review does not accept e1 as supports.

  25. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-0d5048

    a observation claim cannot be assessed on the causal_assessment axis

  26. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-09e2b6

    e1 is dated 2023, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2023-10-18); it can only be context

  27. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The first author's own nine-year-old child can do five-digit multiplication better than an LLM.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly-02608f-a1.

  28. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If LLMs become commonly used for difficult questions before their invalid-answer problem is fixed, society will be in serious trouble.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-llms-mastering-math-have-fc77f5-a1.

  29. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Getting AIs to answer 'I don't know' is one of the most important unsolved challenges facing the field.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-llms-mastering-math-have-fbfba1-a1.

  30. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-reports-of-llms-mastering-math-have-a0ac22

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  31. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The really important challenge is not getting AIs to solve more USAMO problems but getting them to say 'I give up' when they can't solve them.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-llms-mastering-math-have-76a9bc-a1.

  32. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Additional user prompting may not substantially improve reasoning LLMs' performance on such problems.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-reports-of-llms-mastering-math-have-5e7bac-a1.

  33. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI needs systems that derive the meaning of wholes from their parts according to syntax, which no one yet knows how to build.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-dba2b0-a1.

  34. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-c38cb0

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  35. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Multimodal ChatGPT's trouble telling time from watch images comes from the same canonical-versus-noncanonical statistics problem seen in DALL-E.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-c2f239-a1.

  36. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Blind fealty to the statistics of arbitrary data is not AGI; it is a hack, and not one we should want.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-b1a991-a1.

  37. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-765f6b

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  38. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    DALL-E 3 cannot distinguish the world from its training data statistics and has no cognitive concepts of doctors, patients, race, or similar.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-5658e7-a1.

  39. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-2ca679

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  40. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI research should focus on building systems that can represent and reason about values instead of just perpetuating past data.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-race-statistics-and-the-persistent-071f56-a1.

  41. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Trump's April 2025 tariff policy was quite possibly written partly by LLMs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-questions-about-president-trump-from-b3e946-a1.

  42. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If we don't stand together, big tech will walk all over all of us.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-psa-microsoft-may-be-training-on-d00242-a1.

  43. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    None of us stand any chance against big tech unless we stand together.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-psa-microsoft-may-be-training-on-b9561e-a1.

  44. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Every big tech company is desperate for AI training data.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-psa-microsoft-may-be-training-on-930bb2-a1.

  45. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Too often, media companies platform predictions from people who stand to gain immensely from their narratives, with too little skepticism.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-promises-are-cheap-b7319e-a1.

  46. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If the AI boom collapses, careless media repetition of hype may turn out to have been an important contributing factor.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-promises-are-cheap-a7dcaf-a1.

  47. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    According to the December 2025 Remote Labor Index, AI could do only 2.5% of human online tasks.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-promises-are-cheap-a44926-a1.

  48. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-promises-are-cheap-77b3e7

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  49. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-promises-are-cheap-52a602

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: That points to large benchmark gains, but the figure is reported by OpenAI itself. | These point toward large gains, but they are company-reported and do not settle a subjective comparison..

  50. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-promises-are-cheap-4fc9e1

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  51. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-promises-are-cheap-4be39e

    The openai review does not accept e2 as supports.

  52. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Elon Musk's promise of a million Tesla robotaxis, pushed back to 2026, will not be fulfilled in 2026.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-promises-are-cheap-46185b-a2.

  53. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-promises-are-cheap-45e99b

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed.

  54. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    All the big tech CEOs have come to realize that making promises costs them nothing.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-promises-are-cheap-37dfcc-a1.

  55. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Tesla's valuation of nearly 400 times earnings is due to Musk's hype rather than profits.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-promises-are-cheap-32b435-a2.

  56. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Media outlets like the FT should give context on conflicts of interest and track records when reporting AI executives' predictions, and seek independent opinions.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-promises-are-cheap-208ba6-a1.

  57. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Although GenAI is marketed as near-AGI, its reliability problems persist and limit how well it can be used in practice.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-poor-roi-for-genai-ed58cd-a2.

  58. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    NVidia's sharp stock decline may be partly because it is becoming clear that GenAI is not delivering the expected return on investment.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-poor-roi-for-genai-c6e69c-a1.

  59. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    With GPT-5-level models still elusive, the poor ROI picture for GenAI may not change enormously in the near term.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-poor-roi-for-genai-c02ce8-a1.

  60. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    As of April 2025, GPT-5-level models have not yet arrived.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-poor-roi-for-genai-c02ce8-2-a2.

  61. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    NVidia's stock is down 23.4% in 2025 so far, significantly more than the S&P's 11.5% decline.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-poor-roi-for-genai-1b5172-a1.

  62. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-poetry-for-our-agi-times-30115c

    The openai screen doubts the attribution.

  63. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus thinks smart people are spending too much time experimenting with GPT-3 and DALL-E when there are deeper problems in AI to solve.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-poetry-for-our-agi-times-21f29a-a1.

  64. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The apparent confidence of LLMs is an illusion that comes from how they are trained.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-f290cb-a1.

  65. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    A large fraction of the population has begun using chatbots for medical advice.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-bf86d4-a1.

  66. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    For now and until proven otherwise, people should not take LLMs' apparent confidence as reason to trust them with their lives.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-9898e3-a1.

  67. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Hallucinations, mistakes and overconfidence are entirely typical of LLMs and entirely problematic in medicine.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-7ffa80-a1.

  68. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    An expert doctor might use an LLM to better effect than lay users by asking the right questions.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-73e6b3-a1.

  69. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-3dcde7

    The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.

  70. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-352372

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  71. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-please-dont-trust-your-chatbot-for-2e779a

    e2 is dated 2026-04, which is not inside the period described (2026-01-01 to 2026-04-21); it can only be context

  72. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    When the AI bubble ends, the outcome will be bad.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-peak-bubble-f45df8-a1.

  73. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The total value of the tech market as a whole far exceeds the value its companies are likely ever to deliver.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-peak-bubble-c8d2b1-a1.

  74. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The generative AI market is a bubble and has reached peak bubble, though Marcus does not know when it will end.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-peak-bubble-84b55a-a1.

  75. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-peak-bubble-7c952e

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  76. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-peak-bubble-5b4bb1

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  77. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-peak-bubble-29d8f0

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  78. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The AI market is well past peak bubble and has reached a peak game of musical chairs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-peak-bubble-1120ad-a1.

  79. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-peak-bubble-052511

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  80. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-f5a78c

    The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.

  81. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    As of the post date, even after a very strong week, Oracle stock stands at just $170, compared with about $308 on September 11.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-ab1355-a1.

  82. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus may have spoken too soon in saying that the Oracle stock spike would be seen as the peak of absurdity, because a new example has now appeared.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-a5ff19-a1.

  83. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-9a2c00

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  84. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-5 was not tantamount to AGI, although OpenAI thought or claimed that it would be.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-60174f-a1.

  85. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-5b4bb1

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful, citations_correct; overclaims: OpenAI does not have the $300 billion needed for its Oracle deal..

  86. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-29d8f0

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct.

  87. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-peak-absurdity-part-ii-052511

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  88. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Getting to real AI will require a different approach from the partial-regurgitation approach of current LLMs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-partial-regurgitation-and-how-llms-6c3a0b-a1.

  89. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Storing weights does not mean neural nets know what they are talking about.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-partial-regurgitation-and-how-llms-689615-a1.

  90. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Partial regurgitation, no matter how fluent, does not and will not ever constitute genuine comprehension.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-partial-regurgitation-and-how-llms-12c8c0-a1.

  91. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus leans toward the view that the Paris AI Summit draft statement should not be signed.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-paris-ai-summit-train-wreck-cd3557-a1.

  92. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-paris-ai-summit-train-wreck-5bb924

    The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.

  93. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Considering all the big names assembled, the Paris AI Summit feels like a wasted opportunity.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-paris-ai-summit-train-wreck-362b56-a1.

  94. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Amid the complaints about the Paris AI Summit's leaked draft statement, regulatory capture seemed huge.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-paris-ai-summit-train-wreck-2dfa61-a1.

  95. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If your friend has OpenClaw installed, you should not use their machine, because any password you type there might be vulnerable.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-e92894-a1.

  96. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-bf4799

    The anthropic review does not accept e1 as supports.

  97. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-b60f63

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  98. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    People who care about device security or data privacy should not use OpenClaw.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-afccd2-a1.

  99. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenClaw is basically a cascade of LLMs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-5b24d2-a1.

  100. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-2199be

    The anthropic review does not accept e2 as supports.

  101. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Unlike sandboxed iPhone apps, OpenClaw left unfettered is positioned to cause serious harm.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openclaw-aka-moltbot-is-everywhere-208362-a1.

  102. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-fc7a90

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  103. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-ea67a1

    The final-text check failed: proposition_faithful.

  104. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-d3e7ef

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/supported, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  105. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLMs will not be the approach that leads the way to AGI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-b64a45-a1.

  106. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLMs do markedly better on coding benchmarks than in real-world coding practice.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-b64a45-2-a2.

  107. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-aeede7

    the horizon on 2026-10-28 is not_due, not open_horizon; hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  108. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-9c03a7

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  109. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-8dacbd

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  110. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI cannot be made better if you drown out the critics and keep pouring good money after bad.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-749cae-a1.

  111. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Almost no one was satisfied with GPT-5, and some customers wanted the old models back.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-71964f-a2.

  112. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Hype and bragging alone cannot produce AGI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-46892d-a1.

  113. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-3908e7

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  114. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    As the limits of scaling become recognized, scientists will pursue new approaches, one of which may produce trustworthy AI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-372737-a1.

  115. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-waterloo-13ac30

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  116. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Two years ago many people treated Altman like an oracle, and now, in the eyes of many, he looks more like a snake oil salesman.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-0ea2ca-a2.

  117. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    GPT-5 is starting to look like Altman's decisive defeat.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-waterloo-02dd34-a1.

  118. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-slow-motion-train-wreck-ca18c7

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  119. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The magazine cover of OpenAI's leaders from last September may soon become as iconic as the most famous magazine covers of our time.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-slow-motion-train-wreck-b154d8-a1.

  120. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Investors should not put more money into OpenAI at higher valuations and should instead scrutinize what is going on at the company.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-slow-motion-train-wreck-500831-a1.

  121. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI may fail or even be dismissed.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-c0eb62-a1.

  122. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The revealed facts suggest OpenAI never really intended to follow its charter.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-bcbe0c-a1.

  123. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus applies the proverb 'leopards rarely change their spots' to OpenAI, expressing distrust of its character.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-844bea-a1.

  124. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-own-goal-644a39

    The two reviews differ: anthropic historical_observation/not_applicable/mixed, openai historical_observation/not_applicable/unresolved.

  125. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-own-goal-4cdfa1

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  126. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI knew it was misleading people into believing it meant open-sourced AI and failed to take an opportunity, at a May 2016 meeting, to correct that belief.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-463360-a2.

  127. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Almost nothing is known about the precise internal mechanisms of GPT-4 or what it has been trained on.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-3c5406-a1.

  128. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-own-goal-28e78a

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  129. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI should not turn a blind eye to covert racism, apparent copyright infringement, and violent or degrading outputs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-own-goal-1329d2-a1.

  130. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-own-goal-11234a

    The anthropic review does not accept e2 as contradicts.

  131. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Tyler Cowen's claim that OpenAI's o3 is AGI was refuted within a day of its release.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided-f34825-a1.

  132. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided-31bb96

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  133. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-o3-and-tyler-cowens-misguided-0589ab

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  134. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    While publicly asking the Senate to regulate it, OpenAI worked behind the scenes to water down regulations.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-cfd3b2-a2.

  135. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    In his May 2023 Senate testimony, Sam Altman left out his indirect OpenAI stake through Y Combinator and his ownership of the OpenAI venture fund.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-c81e88-a1.

  136. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-97fd17

    The openai review reads the claim differently.

  137. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Given her role as CTO, it seems all but inconceivable to Marcus that Mira Murati had no idea what specific data Sora was trained on.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-8a8620-a1.

  138. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Phrases in OpenAI's official filings such as 'Charitable' and 'For the public benefit' don't seem to have meant much at all.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-89ae41-a1.

  139. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lies-and-half-truths-519ac2

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  140. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-d52790

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  141. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-9ed742

    The openai review does not accept e3 as contradicts.

  142. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The US government might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, which would protect Josh Kushner's investment in OpenAI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-7f4134-a1.

  143. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-786cce

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  144. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI cannot keep multiplying its losses by around 8x a year for very long.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-751563-a1.

  145. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-2f7af6

    The openai review doubts the attribution.

  146. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-lead-is-dwindling-fast-2deb22

    The anthropic review does not accept e3 as supports.

  147. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Copyright battles may cut massively into OpenAI's profits and may be unavoidable.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-f8bbb1-a1.

  148. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-ec185a

    The anthropic review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  149. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-e59077

    e7 is dated 2024-01, which is not inside the period described (2023-01-01 to 2024-01-27); it can only be context

  150. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's licensing costs for copyrighted material may quickly mount.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-e15e51-a1.

  151. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-de64ed

    The final-text check failed: citations_correct; overclaims: OpenAI's answer explicitly includes licensed information among its training sources and acknowledges its AP partnership and further negotiations, contradicting the claimed omission of licensing..

  152. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Internal tensions at OpenAI are likely to persist in 2024.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-d46504-a1.

  153. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The perception of OpenAI's unlimited potential could soon change.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-c6beae-a1.

  154. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    If LLMs plateau in the near term, enthusiasm may dissipate and investors may temper their investments.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-c58975-a1.

  155. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Marcus guesses that OpenAI, backed by and deeply tied to Microsoft, will survive, but that the bloom will fade from the rose.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-afbae6-a1.

  156. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Public Citizen's call could strain OpenAI and, if California investigates, lead to uncomfortable revelations.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-a454eb-a1.

  157. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Many generative AI companies are likely to face intense legal and public pressure over copyright in 2024.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-a3cd7f-a1.

  158. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-9af2fc

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  159. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI will likely face a rapid flurry of lawsuits in 2024.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-9472d9-a1.

  160. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Most high-quality data sources for LLM training have likely already been tapped.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-911b4d-a1.

  161. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    EU and other regulation may force OpenAI to confront unreliability, privacy, misinformation, and cybercrime problems.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-8a5fee-a1.

  162. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI's request for a copyright exemption is likely in violation of common law and international IP conventions like Berne.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-8710f3-a1.

  163. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    2024 looks likely to be a much more challenging year for OpenAI and Sam Altman.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-7f7229-a1.

  164. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    As of January 2024, OpenAI has neither profits nor a competitive moat.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-535fab-a1.

  165. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-3afee6

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  166. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    It is unclear that ChatGPT adoption will be enough to justify OpenAI's very high valuation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-1942cd-a1.

  167. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI may spend a huge part of its energy in 2024 defending lawsuits.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-166cb4-a1.

  168. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    LLM technology may reach a plateau, perhaps in 2024 or 2025.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-0ae95f-a1.

  169. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Valuations of OpenAI and some peers may drop sharply.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-got-99-problems-and-twitch-090ea2-a1.

  170. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-future-foretold-dbfb57

    The final-text check failed: conditions_shown, citations_correct.

  171. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Generative AI has not always worked well enough to justify its costs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-future-foretold-d8e08f-a1.

  172. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-future-foretold-9afaee

    The openai review found the criteria unfair to the speaker's words.

  173. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-future-foretold-99155a

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  174. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-future-foretold-8c2779

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence, citations_correct; overclaims: Bloomberg linked the discrepancy with earlier estimates to different treatment of cloud-provider sales; that revision does not establish a revenue stall [e2]..

  175. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    Schoolchildren using ChatGPT to do their homework are not enough to cover OpenAI's immense costs and cash burn.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-future-foretold-699479-a1.

  176. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-fc03cb

    The final-text check failed: rationale_supported_by_evidence; overclaims: On 2026-04-07, The Register reported Anthropic's statement that Mythos Preview could identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and browser when directed to (e3)..

  177. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    The AI industry might slow down only if companies are clearly held liable for the harms they cause.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-f49a5f-a1.

  178. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    AI development should slow down or pause until security and AI safety are under control.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-e84e11-a1.

  179. HeldBy this siteGary Marcus

    Held record marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-e05b65

    hedged language is not scored, even on a plain reading

  180. Assessment publishedBy this siteGary Marcus

    OpenAI, and for that matter Anthropic, love playing the doom card.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment marcus-openais-disconcerting-hack-of-huggingface-d3abd4-a1.