Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron, page 2 of 13
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Ed Zitron and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Ed Zitron (1290)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 2 of 13: claims 101 to 200 of 1290, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The reason they are training these models, as I got into in my podcast Better Offline with Cal Newport, is that there’s a mountain of potential different kinds of exploit and vulnerability data online that you can cram into these models now that they’re hitting the diminishing returns on coding.”
Our reading: AI labs train cybersecurity models because they are hitting diminishing returns on coding and there is abundant exploit data online.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The fact that Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta are both training and allowing cybersecurity models to connect to their vast amounts of GPU infrastructure is irresponsible and should not be legal.”
Our reading: Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta training cybersecurity models connected to vast GPU infrastructure is irresponsible and should not be legal.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This is a short note, but an important one: the terminology of “pacing the frontier” or “slowing down” implicitly buys into the narrative that the AI industry’s path is the correct one, and that the only problem is the speed it’s moving at.”
Our reading: The terminology of 'pacing the frontier' or 'slowing down' implicitly buys into the narrative that the AI industry's path is correct and that the only problem is the speed it is moving at.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This is a terrible deal, its results suck, and the amount of attention it’s gotten is a direct result of the media’s inability to speak truth to power or do anything other than repeat what they say and a financial bubble driven by LLMs’ unbelievable infrastructural cost.”
Our reading: The half-trillion-dollar spend on LLMs is a terrible deal with results that suck, and the attention it has received is a direct result of the media's inability to speak truth to power and of a financial bubble driven by LLMs' unbelievable infrastructure costs.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Every success that LLMs have had is a direct result of throwing at least half a trillion dollars in infrastructure and compute spend at problems that had vast amounts of data that could be trained against. Half a trillion dollars should have bought us a lot more than this.”
Our reading: LLM successes came from spending at least $500 billion on data-rich problems, and that spend should have bought much more.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While it’s tempting to view this entirely as an opp — a coordinated industry-wide plan to push for some sort of self-regulation — in my mind it’s likely an attempt by the AI safety people to push an agenda that has spiralled completely out of control.”
Our reading: In his view, rather than being viewed entirely as a coordinated industry-wide push for self-regulation, the Coxon episode is likely an AI safety advocates' attempt to push an agenda that has spiralled completely out of control.
No horizon
Qualifier: in my mind
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The “success” of the Hugging Face attack was largely a result of the sheer scale of OpenAI’s compute operation, and would not have been possible without Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and CoreWeave’s continued enabling of an unprofitable, unsustainable company that is desperate for new business models.”
Our reading: The 'success' of the Hugging Face attack was largely a result of the sheer scale of OpenAI's compute operation, and would not have been possible without Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and CoreWeave's continued enabling of an unprofitable, unsustainable company desperate for new business models.
No horizon
Qualifier: largely
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“There are, of course, real, meaningful things you could do if you actually were worried about LLMs — halting all model training, all cybersecurity evaluations, and starting a criminal inquiry into the Hugging Face attack that ends in somebody going to jail for the crime they used the models to commit.”
Our reading: Real, meaningful steps for anyone actually worried about LLMs would be halting all model training and all cybersecurity evaluations, and starting a criminal inquiry into the Hugging Face attack that ends with somebody going to jail.
No horizon
Only if: if you actually were worried about LLMs
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And I also want to be clear about something: The Hugging Face attack was dangerous, reckless and somebody should go to prison for it.”
Our reading: The Hugging Face attack was dangerous and reckless, and someone should go to prison for it.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Within a day of Coxon’s post, Clammy Sam Altman spoke with Fortune saying that OpenAI was delaying going public until 2027, as it was an “ill-advised moment” due to “safety concerns” rather than, I imagine, the fact that its financials are godawful.”
Our reading: OpenAI's financials are terrible, and that rather than safety is likely the real reason it delayed its IPO to 2027.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“What it may do — though I’m not getting my hopes up prematurely — is lead to the unwinding of the AI trade as reality slams head-first into the scaremongering overpromises of some of the least-trustworthy and most-craven executives in the history of society.”
Our reading: The slowdown talk may lead to the unwinding of the AI trade.
No horizon
Qualifier: slowdown talk as trigger
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“With over $40 billion of debt due to be refinanced this year at a time of skyrocketing interest rates, it’s probably the single-worst time in history for it to be doing a $20 billion bond sale (separate from the aforementioned $11.87bn bank loan), which is why I think things are getting a little tight.”
Our reading: With over $40 billion of debt due to be refinanced this year amid skyrocketing interest rates, it is probably the single-worst time in history for SoftBank to do a $20 billion bond sale, which is why he thinks things are getting a little tight.
No horizon
Qualifier: at a time of skyrocketing interest rates
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I think it’s far simpler: the AI industry is run by a series of different entities with deeply cynical and selfish beliefs, all operating “in sync” only so far as it benefits ideologies and intentions that change on a daily basis.”
Our reading: He thinks the AI industry is run by different entities with deeply cynical and selfish beliefs, operating in sync only so far as it benefits ideologies and intentions that change daily.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“That spike in costs comes from Stephen Ju of UBS’ estimates, and even if you think that’s a little high, I would estimate that the $250 billion of commitments made by OpenAI alone on Microsoft Azure will likely mean Microsoft is expecting tens of billions more than $52.5 billion in FY27 and beyond.”
Our reading: Zitron estimates that OpenAI's $250 billion of Azure commitments alone will likely mean Microsoft is expecting tens of billions more than $52.5 billion in FY27 and beyond.
No horizon
Qualifier: I would estimate
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While the consequences might be different — as the scale and damage of the Great Financial Crisis was driven by trillions in speculation — the mistakes are increasingly looking very, very similar.”
Our reading: The mistakes in AI financing increasingly resemble those that led to the Great Financial Crisis, though consequences may differ.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Then you have to add in another $30 billion from Oracle’s $300 billion, five-year-long deal with OpenAI, which the Wall Street Journal reports is expected to drive $30 billion in revenue starting in 2027, though my own research found that it could be more than $50 billion or $60 billion”
Our reading: OpenAI's annual payments under its Oracle deal could exceed $50–60 billion from 2027, not just the reported $30 billion.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And here’s the fun part: Anthropic and OpenAI’s reset wall is actually way simpler, more-concentrated and easier-to-spot if you bother to look!”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI's compute 'reset wall' is simpler, more concentrated, and easier to see than the subprime mortgage reset wall.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These commitments were signed, I assume, with effectively no underwriting, because anyone with a calculator and sentience can see that on paper these companies cannot afford their commitments.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic's compute commitments were likely signed with effectively no underwriting, since the companies plainly cannot afford them.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s be abundantly clear about something: there is no rational or responsible way that Google, Microsoft, Amazon and the various other neoclouds should have allowed Anthropic and OpenAI to sign up for so much compute capacity, outside of the kind of blind faith that always goes wrong.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers and neoclouds should not have let Anthropic and OpenAI sign up for so much compute capacity.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If it doesn’t, it means that in 2028 or 2029, its commitments could spike to $300 billion or $400 billion a year.”
Our reading: If OpenAI's compute spend isn't spread at $250B a year, its commitments could spike to $300–400B a year in 2028 or 2029.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI doesn't spend $250B a year evenly
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“However you may feel about me or the greater AI bubble is immaterial to the fact that everything will seem like it’s fine right up until somebody can’t raise money and make a payment to either a neocloud, hyperscaler or AI lab.”
Our reading: The AI industry will look fine until someone can't raise money to make a payment to a neocloud, hyperscaler or AI lab.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Hyperscalers are doing all of this based on the very same logic that led to the massive issuance of subprime (and prime-but-unpayable) mortgages and the resulting overbuild of housing — that the money hadn’t stopped being spent.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers are extending compute to AI labs using the same logic as subprime mortgage lenders: the money hasn't stopped flowing yet.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The answer is pretty simple: these people want to stop you thinking about what’s actually happening — that the underlying financials and demand do not make sense, and their cloud software does not remotely justify its alarming costs.”
Our reading: AI companies talk about AGI to distract from the fact that their financials and demand do not make sense and their software does not justify its costs.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Anthropic and OpenAI’s compute commitments, in my mind, should be seen more as debt obligations than “contracts,” because they (as take-or-pay agreements) function in much the same way, requiring the company to pay whether or not they need the capacity.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI's take-or-pay compute commitments should be viewed as debt obligations.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“With OpenAI only representing 5% of Cursor’s traffic, it’s likely sending billions more to Anthropic this year, a massive underlying exposure that could easily evaporate if Elon Musk decides he doesn’t want to send all that money to competing AI labs.”
Our reading: With OpenAI only 5% of Cursor's traffic, Cursor is likely sending billions more to Anthropic this year, a massive exposure that could easily evaporate if Elon Musk decides he doesn't want to send that money to competing AI labs.
No horizon
Only if: if Elon Musk decides he doesn't want to send all that money to competing AI labs
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Sidenote: At this point, I really want to use Groundbreaker’s charts, but their numbers are, if I’m honest, total fucking dogshit — Anthropic and OpenAI are very unlikely to have spent over $120 billion on compute in 2026, and I can find absolutely nothing to back them up.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI very likely will not have spent over $120 billion combined on compute in 2026.
No horizon
Source: Concentration Risk
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sidenote: NVIDIA deploying capital at random to help counterparties raise debt, despite being legal, should immediately trigger memories of Enron, if only because their actions have the same intention of artificially inflating revenues. Real businesses do not need financial wizardry.”
Our reading: NVIDIA's investments helping counterparties raise debt are intended to artificially inflate its revenues, comparable to Enron.
No horizon
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The entire AI bubble — every bit of hype — is an attempt to rebrand old things as new.”
Our reading: All AI bubble hype is an attempt to rebrand old things as new.
No horizon
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In fact, every time you read about some multi-billion dollar data center deal, know that it won’t be built for years, but NVIDIA will likely book the revenue immediately, because all it has to do is help raise the debt for the banks to send the money and the GPUs to be sold.”
Our reading: Multi-billion-dollar data center deals will not be built for years, but NVIDIA will likely book the associated revenue immediately.
No horizon
Qualifier: multi-billion dollar data center deals
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I have no specific beef with Cognition, because the same can be said of Perplexity, Higgsfield, Harvey, or any number of other AI companies with triple-digit “annualized run rates” with double-digit billion valuations for businesses with questionable business models.”
Our reading: The same criticism made of Cognition applies to Perplexity, Higgsfield, Harvey and any number of other AI companies with triple-digit 'annualized run rates' and double-digit-billion valuations for businesses with questionable business models.
No horizon
Scope: AI companies with triple-digit annualized run rates and double-digit-billion valuations
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“There is nothing rational about valuing Cognition at $26 billion, let alone the $40 billion one it’s allegedly raising at right now.”
Our reading: There is nothing rational about valuing Cognition at $26 billion, let alone at the $40 billion it is allegedly raising at now.
No horizon
Qualifier: $40 billion round is 'allegedly' being raised
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I’m sure there are automations that people have made with this stuff that help them — good for you! — but it will take a lot more than that to justify a trillion-plus dollars in investment or endless fucking prattling about how impressive and world-changing AI is.”
Our reading: Automations people have built with LLMs that help them are not enough; it will take a lot more to justify a trillion-plus dollars of investment or the endless talk about how impressive and world-changing AI is.
No horizon
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This is not the same government that could once afford to pump trillions of dollars into any kind of bailout without running the very real risk of destabilizing the US dollar.”
Our reading: The US government, with national debt now at $40 trillion, can no longer pump trillions of dollars into a bailout without running a very real risk of destabilizing the US dollar.
No horizon
Qualifier: with US national debt grown to $40 trillion
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Everything, even often in critical pieces, comes back to statements that reinforce the status quo, like “AI is, of course, transformative,” or “bubbles always form and leave value afterward,” even though that’s not really true at all when you look at history, and certainly isn’t true of this particular era.”
Our reading: The common claim that bubbles always form and leave value afterward is not really true historically, and certainly is not true of the current AI era.
No horizon
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“There is nothing ‘anti-progress’ about opposing AI data centers, and nobody has a compelling explanation as to why we need more of them.”
Our reading: Nobody has a compelling explanation for why more AI data centers are needed, and there is nothing 'anti-progress' about opposing them.
No horizon
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“CoreWeave is a bad company that only exists because of the simple, systemic belief that If The Right Numbers Are Going Up, Everything Is Fine.”
Our reading: CoreWeave is a bad company that only exists because of the simple, systemic belief that if the right numbers are going up, everything is fine.
No horizon
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Sidenote: While I don’t dispute that the AI industry has done something, the scale of its importance is entirely a result of the media’s puffery, subsidized subscriptions, venture capital and hyperscaler funding and endless debt.”
Our reading: The AI industry's apparent importance is entirely due to media hype, subsidized subscriptions, VC and hyperscaler funding and debt.
No horizon
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The thing is, LLMs have improved in the last year, just not in a way that’s tremendously impressive to me given the amount of capital invested, or in a way that has manifested in a tangible product that can be described in a sentence.”
Our reading: LLMs have improved in the last year, but not in a way that is tremendously impressive to the author given the capital invested, nor in a way that has produced a tangible product describable in a sentence.
No horizon
Qualifier: given the amount of capital invested
Source: Hyperscale Normalization
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And said market may not accept that valuation, or want that much stock.”
Our reading: The market may not accept Anthropic's $2 trillion valuation or want that much stock.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“It deliberately subsidized its subscription products because it knew its customers wouldn’t pay the actual cost of AI”
Our reading: The AI industry deliberately subsidized subscriptions because it knew customers would not pay the true cost.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Generative AI is far more useful as an idea than as a technology, and only ever has to show enough promise to back whatever vile agenda you’re pursuing.”
Our reading: Generative AI is far more useful as an idea than as a technology, and only ever has to show enough promise to back whatever vile agenda one is pursuing.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“These costs are only increasing, likely due to the diminishing returns of pre-training and the massive cost of buying training data for every imaginable new vertical.”
Our reading: OpenAI's training costs keep rising, likely because of diminishing returns from pre-training and the cost of training data.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It’s so much weirder, and in the end will be so much worse.”
Our reading: This time really is different: the AI bubble is so much weirder and, in the end, will be so much worse.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Here’s how I feel about LLMs. In a vacuum, they’re an interesting technology that can do some interesting stuff, in the right scenarios, but never in a way that involves you fully surrendering your actual work product to it.”
Our reading: In a vacuum, LLMs are an interesting technology that can do some interesting stuff in the right scenarios, but never in a way that involves fully surrendering your actual work product to them.
No horizon
Qualifier: in a vacuum
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“If you think any of this is worth hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars, you are either ignorant or corrupt. On top of how disgusting their outputs feel, the cost is going to take at least a decade to share, and begin the end of hypergrowth in the tech industry.”
Our reading: The cost of AI investment is going to take at least a decade to 'share' (his word, meaning unclear) and will begin the end of hypergrowth in the tech industry.
No horizon
Qualifier: 'share' is his word; its intended meaning is unclear
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Guess what folks! Building the infrastructure for all these fucking LLMs just got more expensive, with NVIDIA raising its prices by 17% for systems due to be delivered next year — an important designation, because it’s very likely that much of the revenue for said systems gets booked in this year”
Our reading: After a 17% price increase for systems delivered next year, NVIDIA will very likely book much of the revenue for those systems in 2026.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The fact any of you take “annualized run rate” seriously is an offense to good sense, and yes, that includes every reporter reporting it, even the ones I respect.”
Our reading: Annualized run rate figures for AI companies should not be taken seriously, including by reporters.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I have never seen somebody like Nik who is also a huge, drooling fan of AI. In fact, the people most-excited about AI tend to, at best, create distinctly mediocre shit.”
Our reading: The people most excited about AI tend to create distinctly mediocre work at best.
No horizon
Qualifier: tend to
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s also ridiculous that anyone is talking about “recursive self-improvement.””
Our reading: It is ridiculous that anyone is talking about 'recursive self-improvement.'
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The fact that OpenAI has now cut the costs of all three of its latest models less than two months after their release is a sign that it knows there’s a disconnect”
Our reading: OpenAI cutting prices on its three latest models within two months of release signals it knows there is a value disconnect.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“AI research fucking stinks, as does AI writing.”
Our reading: AI research stinks, as does AI writing.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“This is why I find it difficult to see a post-bubble future for LLMs.”
Our reading: Zitron finds it difficult to see a future for LLMs after the AI bubble.
No horizon
Only if: after the AI bubble bursts
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Anthropic plans to raise $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation, and if it does so, it will successfully suck up the remaining liquidity in a market already dangerously close to losing its lunch.”
Our reading: If Anthropic raises $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation, it will soak up the remaining liquidity in the market.
No horizon
Only if: if Anthropic raises $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This is not a sustainable industry — either economically or emotionally — because it has a fundamentally dishonest relationship with its customers defined by the inconsistency of LLMs both in efficacy, stability (see: Anthropic’s downtime) and training”
Our reading: The AI industry is not sustainable economically or emotionally because it has a fundamentally dishonest relationship with its customers, defined by LLMs' inconsistency in efficacy, stability and training.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The push into cybersecurity seems to have happened as a result of training models to excel at coding hitting the point of diminishing returns, at least from the perspective of impressing people enough to be excited about the company again.”
Our reading: AI labs' push into cybersecurity appears to result from coding training hitting diminishing returns in its ability to impress.
No horizon
Qualifier: from the perspective of impressing people
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The further you stretch yourself away from having complete clarity and industry over every element of the output’s purpose, the more likely you are to fall foul to a technology that is mathematically certain to make mistakes”
Our reading: The further you get from having complete clarity and industry over every element of an LLM output's purpose, the more likely you are to fall foul of a technology that is mathematically certain to make mistakes.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“They do not need to be in anything near healthcare or finance or mental health or, really, people.”
Our reading: LLMs do not need to be in anything near healthcare, finance, mental health or, really, people.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“They’ll have to explain why they ignored a company that burned $5 billion in 2024, $20.9 billion in 2025, and will likely burn $30 billion or more in 2026”
Our reading: OpenAI, which burned $5 billion in 2024 and $20.9 billion in 2025, will likely burn $30 billion or more in 2026.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It refuses to explain how it becomes profitable, because nobody knows how or has a tangible plan to do so.”
Our reading: Nobody in the AI industry knows how it becomes profitable or has a tangible plan to do so.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I would never, ever trust this thing that deleted and added lines of code at random with anything mission critical, I could not trust software built with it, and I certainly couldn’t trust it with anything involving my personal data.”
Our reading: Zitron says he would never trust the LLM tool he used, which deleted and added lines of code at random, with anything mission critical, could not trust software built with it, and certainly could not trust it with anything involving his personal data.
No horizon
Scope: the tool he used, which deleted and added lines of code at random
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I also think that LLMs have created a near-permanent scar in the workforce, and traumatized more people than we’re aware of right now, both in those pressured about AI and those defending it.”
Our reading: Zitron thinks LLMs have created a near-permanent scar in the workforce and traumatized more people than we are aware of right now, both those pressured about AI and those defending it.
No horizon
Qualifier: I also think
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The fact that non-enterprise customers are still able to buy monthly subscriptions is proof that the AI labs know that regular people won’t pay the actual cost of AI.”
Our reading: The fact that non-enterprise customers can still buy monthly subscriptions proves that AI labs know regular people won't pay the actual cost of AI.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And it’s losing because, at its core, AI was never built on very much.”
Our reading: The AI industry is losing because, at its core, AI was never built on very much.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Look, I’m sorry, Anthropic is not worth $2 trillion, and whatever convinced you of that is a mixture of manufactured consent and mistaken trust of the powerful.”
Our reading: Anthropic is not worth $2 trillion, and whatever convinced people otherwise is a mixture of manufactured consent and mistaken trust of the powerful.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We still lack any real killer app for LLMs.”
Our reading: LLMs still have no real killer app.
No horizon
Source: The AI Hater's Manifesto
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“With its IPO likely delayed — if it ever happens — until 2027, OpenAI will almost-certainly have to raise another round of funding by March 2027, likely at a similar scale to its $122 billion round from March of this year.”
Our reading: OpenAI's IPO will likely be delayed until 2027, if it happens at all.
No horizon
Qualifier: if it ever happens
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“if I had to guess, it’s because OpenAI needed that money to pay for its compute costs, an estimated $9 billion of which flow through Amazon Web Services.”
Our reading: Amazon probably sent its remaining $35 billion because OpenAI needed it to pay for compute.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI, despite its prominent in the industry and load-bearing compute spend, is in a desperate and untenable position made worse by a competitor that worked out how to swindle enterprise customers that don’t know how to measure their token spend at a much-larger scale, and without something completely-unexpected, it’s unclear how it pulls itself out.”
Our reading: OpenAI is in a desperate and untenable position, made worse by a competitor that worked out how to swindle enterprise customers who can't measure their token spend at a much larger scale, and without something completely unexpected it is unclear how OpenAI pulls itself out.
No horizon
Qualifier: without something completely unexpected
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In this scenario, Microsoft would potentially strip back (or entirely eliminate) the free ChatGPT product, and likely either tighten rate limits or move everybody on a ChatGPT Plus or Pro subscription to token-based billing, much as it did with GitHub Copilot in June.”
Our reading: If Microsoft absorbed OpenAI, it would potentially strip back or eliminate free ChatGPT, and likely either tighten rate limits or move ChatGPT Plus and Pro subscribers to token-based billing.
No horizon
Only if: if Microsoft absorbs OpenAI
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In any case, OpenAI has a real problem if Anthropic beats it to the markets.”
Our reading: OpenAI will face a serious problem if Anthropic goes public first.
No horizon
Only if: if Anthropic IPOs first
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The death of SoftBank is a very real possibility.”
Our reading: If OpenAI collapses, the death of SoftBank is a very real possibility.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI collapses
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“No, Really, OpenAI Could Die”
Our reading: OpenAI could collapse.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While I imagine some rescue package is pulled together, OpenAI could simply be allowed to run out of money, short-changing nearly a trillion dollars’ worth of compute contracts, killing CoreWeave, Cerebras, and anyone else reliant on its income.”
Our reading: Although Zitron imagines some rescue package will be pulled together, OpenAI could simply be allowed to run out of money, short-changing nearly a trillion dollars in compute contracts and killing CoreWeave, Cerebras and anyone else reliant on its income.
No horizon
Qualifier: I imagine some rescue package is pulled together
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The likelihood of the vast majority of AI investments going to zero is much, much higher than anyone wants to think about, at a time when, per Bloomberg, a venture capital firm that returns thirty centers on the dollar is considered an above-top-five performer.”
Our reading: The likelihood that the vast majority of AI investments go to zero is much, much higher than anyone wants to think about.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The reason that OpenAI (and Anthropic, for that matter) wants you to think about things in terms of “annualized revenue” is because its actual revenues look a little tame compared to its commitments and burn rate.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic promote annualized revenue because their actual revenues look small next to their commitments and burn.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“this paragraph exists only to manufacture consent for a company that clearly has questionable economics.”
Our reading: One Reuters paragraph urging investors to look past Anthropic's current EBITDA exists only to manufacture consent for Anthropic, a company that clearly has questionable economics.
No horizon
Scope: this paragraph
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“though if OpenAI can’t get a trillion, it’s hard to see how Anthropic — a business of larger-yet-comparable size and equally-rotten economics — would somehow double that and, I assume, then some.”
Our reading: If OpenAI cannot get a $1 trillion valuation, Anthropic, with equally rotten economics, is unlikely to reach $2 trillion.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI can't get a $1 trillion valuation
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I think it’s very unlikely this happens, and if it does, it would be ruinous for everybody involved.”
Our reading: An OpenAI-Anthropic merger is very unlikely, and if it happened it would be ruinous for everyone involved.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“OpenAI has decidedly failed to play catchup at a time when enterprise customers see costs as a “huge issue,” which also makes it unlikely that (along with recent model price cuts) it will magically re-accelerate”
Our reading: OpenAI has failed to catch up in enterprise and is unlikely to re-accelerate revenue growth.
No horizon
Qualifier: enterprise customers cost-sensitive
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“However you feel about my work, I am begging you to take even the prospect of OpenAI’s collapse seriously, and prepare accordingly.”
Our reading: People should take the possibility of OpenAI's collapse seriously and prepare for it.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“What follows may be an Enron-Lehman Brothers hybrid, one that leaves unbelievable destruction in its wake, an avoidable systemic risk empowered and enabled by a kneecapped media industry and sell-side analysts incapable of seeing further than two quarters in the future.”
Our reading: OpenAI's collapse may be an Enron-Lehman-style systemic event that causes enormous destruction.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It is actively irresponsible to ignore this situation any longer, and I encourage my peers, analysts, journalists, economists and investors to start seriously considering the likelihood and ramifications of the death of OpenAI.”
Our reading: Journalists, analysts, economists and investors should seriously weigh the likelihood and fallout of OpenAI's death.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I imagine Anthropic’s interest in bumrushing for a September IPO is an attempt to avoid investors seeing post-tokenmaxxing deceleration.”
Our reading: Anthropic is probably rushing to a September IPO so investors don't see revenue slow after token-maxxing ends.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Put simply, if Anthropic goes public with its own horrifying economics on parade, it’s hard to imagine OpenAI — a company that lost $20.9 billion in 2025 on $13.07 billion in revenue — will fare much better.”
Our reading: If Anthropic goes public exposing its poor economics, OpenAI is unlikely to fare much better.
No horizon
Only if: if Anthropic goes public with its economics exposed
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I could also see it taking a doomed run at a public offering”
Our reading: OpenAI could attempt a doomed IPO.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“There is a very real scenario in which nobody left with OpenAI stock is able to reach a liquidity event, which means the tens of billions of dollars of venture capital will remain unlocked and zeroed out unless it can go public, which is increasingly-unlikely.”
Our reading: An OpenAI IPO is increasingly unlikely, and remaining shareholders may never cash out.
No horizon
Qualifier: without IPO, VC holdings may be zeroed out
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The collapse of OpenAI would likely be a result of the walls closing in around its ruinous obligations and economics, with counterparties left short-changed and deals broken as things begin to unravel.”
Our reading: If OpenAI collapses, it will likely be because of its ruinous obligations and economics, leaving counterparties unpaid.
No horizon
Qualifier: if OpenAI collapses
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s time for everybody to start having a real, meaningful conversation about what happens if OpenAI dies.”
Our reading: Everyone should start seriously discussing what happens if OpenAI dies.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Going public is a terrible, awful decision, which is why I’m increasingly-confident that Altman would consider it, especially if there’s demand for liquidity from investors.”
Our reading: Going public is a terrible decision for OpenAI, which is why Zitron is increasingly confident Altman would consider it, especially if investors demand liquidity.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially if there is investor demand for liquidity
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I’m not trying to be a buzzkill here, but I have meaningful concerns about OpenAI’s ability to survive, and they’ve only grown more pressing in the last few years.”
Our reading: Zitron has meaningful concerns about OpenAI's ability to survive, and those concerns have grown more pressing over the last few years.
No horizon
Qualifier: his own concerns
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“OpenAI has promised the impossible, and built a company that only makes sense if you’re willing to ignore the worst economics in the history of capitalism.”
Our reading: OpenAI has promised the impossible and has the worst economics in the history of capitalism.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“with investors “leaking” to the Financial Times that they thought it would have a $2 trillion valuation and have (sigh) annualized revenues of $100 billion to $120 billion by end of 2026, an entirely fictional statement made with the intent of pumping their bags”
Our reading: The investor statement leaked to the Financial Times, that Anthropic would have a $2 trillion valuation and $100–120 billion in annualized revenue by end of 2026, was entirely fictional and made to pump the investors' own holdings.
No horizon
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In all likelihood, its deal and commitments will require it to spend more.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely have to spend more than $40.1 billion a year on Azure in Microsoft fiscal years 2027 and 2028.
No horizon
Qualifier: Microsoft Fiscal Years 2027 and 2028
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all have vested interests — literally and figuratively — in at least appearing to get paid by OpenAI, which means they’re likely work with it on deferred payments and/or equity shares in trade, likely instituting some sort of bastardization of the already-problematic “payment-in-kind” system used by private credit when it can’t afford it loans.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Google and Amazon will likely accept deferred payments or equity from OpenAI to keep up the appearance of being paid.
No horizon
Qualifier: when OpenAI can't pay
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The ability for any investor at this point to make a significant return is very, very small”
Our reading: New investors in OpenAI at current valuations are very unlikely to make a significant return.
No horizon
Qualifier: investing at current valuations
Source: What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Every journalist that continues to ignore the obvious instability, circularity and centralization of the AI industry fails their audience by not discussing it before any discussions of AI’s theoretical returns or abilities. It is no longer ethically sound to ignore the problems.”
Our reading: Journalists should discuss the AI industry's instability, circularity and centralization before discussing its theoretical returns or abilities.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“When I wrote the Rot-Com Bubble in 2024, the AI bubble was a series of exploits used to mask the end of tech’s era of hypergrowth.”
Our reading: When he wrote the Rot-Com Bubble in 2024, the AI bubble was a series of exploits used to mask the end of tech's era of hypergrowth.
No horizon
Scope: when I wrote the Rot-Com Bubble in 2024
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Anthropic and OpenAI are only set to spend $100 billion on compute this year, and had to raise over $200 billion to do it, which makes it likely they’ll have to raise $150 billion each leading up to or in 2027.”
Our reading: Anthropic and OpenAI will likely each need to raise about $150 billion by or during 2027.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It suggests that there is a calamitous lack of demand across both those renting GPUs and market demand for software built on top of AI models”
Our reading: Microsoft's roughly $10.33 billion in non-OpenAI AI revenue suggests a calamitous lack of demand both for GPU rentals and for software built on AI models.
No horizon
Qualifier: it suggests
Source: Don't Look Up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“To be clear, “growing super fast” is no longer sufficient for OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Our reading: Growing super fast is no longer sufficient for OpenAI and Anthropic.
No horizon
Source: Don't Look Up