“Based on my own reporting from direct Azure revenue numbers, this would make OpenAI’s $2.947 billion in inference spend in that quarter around 71% ($11.7bn) of Microsoft’s Q3 FY2025 AI revenue run rate.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Based on his own reporting from direct Azure revenue numbers, OpenAI's $2.947 billion in inference spend that quarter (about $11.7 billion annualized) would be around 71% of Microsoft's Q3 FY2025 AI revenue run rate.
Assessment: Unresolved Evidence as of
Where and when Ed Zitron wrote it
Where's Your Ed At, Am I Meant To Be Impressed?, paragraph 23.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-f76c98-a1
We recorded 45 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2026-05-06. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- based on his own reporting from direct Azure revenue numbers (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
- derived run rate assumes revenue was consistent over the quarter, which he says it likely wasn't (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- OpenAI’s $2.947 billion in inference spend
- in that quarter
- around 71% ($11.7bn)
- Microsoft’s Q3 FY2025 AI revenue run rate
Our interpretation
- Q3 FY2025 means January through March 2025.
- Assess the reported spending amount and the resulting comparison, rather than arithmetic alone.
- Annualize the quarter's inference spending by multiplying by four. Compare it with Microsoft's annualized AI revenue measure, preserving the author's stated constant-revenue assumption.
- Treat the author's reporting as an estimate, rather than an audited company disclosure.
Counts as supported if: Independent records establish approximately $2.947 billion of OpenAI Azure inference spending during January–March 2025, and a comparable Microsoft AI revenue run rate makes four times that spending approximately 71% of the denominator.
Counts as contradicted if: Comparable records establish materially different quarterly inference spending or a materially different ratio. Failure to verify the private billing figures is insufficient.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Unresolved
The record was checked, and the evidence available by the cutoff does not settle it.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
The arithmetic yields approximately 71% if the claimed spending input is accepted. Microsoft's disclosure supports the approximate denominator calculation, but it does not verify the numerator. Reproductions of Zitron's reporting do not provide independent confirmation. The historical financial claim therefore remains unresolved.
Limitations
- Arithmetic consistency does not authenticate the spending figure.
- The comparison depends on the author's explicit assumption about revenue within the quarter.
Evidence (1 item)
Context only: Microsoft,
Our AI business surpassed $37 billion ARR, up 123%.
Why it matters here: This supplies the later run rate and growth rate used to infer the earlier denominator. It does not establish the claimed January–March 2025 inference spending.
- Publisher
- Microsoft
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Measures
- Microsoft, AI business annual revenue run rate, USD billions of USD per year, company reported, 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31
- Arithmetic
- Illustrative prior-year ARR = 37 / 2.23 = 16.5919; conditional spending share = (2.947 × 4) / (37 / 2.23) × 100 = 71.0466%. (inputs: Microsoft's disclosed $37 billion ARR reference value; Microsoft's disclosed 123% year-over-year growth; The claim's unverified $2.947 billion quarterly spending input; Approximately $16.59 billion and 71%; the calculation is conditional on the unverified spending input and rounded disclosure values.)
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
Authenticated January–March 2025 Azure inference bills or independently verified customer revenue records, reconciled to Microsoft's AI run-rate definition.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Where's Your Ed At, Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
Based on my own reporting from direct Azure revenue numbers, this would make OpenAI’s $2.947 billion in inference spend in that quarter around 71% ($11.7bn) of Microsoft’s Q3 FY2025 AI revenue run rate.
- Where
- paragraph 23
- Published
- 2026-05-06
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment wyea-am-i-meant-to-be-impressed-f76c98-a1: Current. Outcome: Unresolved. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.