Am I Meant To Be Impressed?
We recorded 24 claims from this post. 24 can’t be checked. 8 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (24)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Meta, on the other hand, has little real AI story, and can’t even seem to get its metrics straight on what AI is doing for the company”
Our reading: Meta has little real AI story and can't even seem to get its metrics straight on what AI is doing for the company.
No horizon
Qualifier: can't even seem to
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Otherwise, Microsoft’s 20 million Copilot 365 subscribers likely pay no more than $7 billion a year.”
Our reading: Microsoft's 20 million Copilot 365 subscribers likely pay no more than $7 billion a year.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Google has intentionally bucketed AI-related revenue into Google Cloud so that finance and tech journalists will claim that AI is what’s driving this growth despite there being no proof that that’s the case.”
Our reading: Google intentionally lumps AI revenue into Google Cloud so journalists credit AI for growth without proof.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“One of the reasons that Google might not want to break out its AI revenues is that they’re — much like Amazon — heavily-inflated by Anthropic’s compute spend.”
Our reading: Google may not break out AI revenue because it is heavily inflated by Anthropic's compute spend.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“These periods match up exactly to Anthropic’s big jumps in revenue from Q2 2025 (around $3 billion ARR) to Q3 2025 (around $7 billion ARR) to Q4 2025 (around $9 billion ARR) to Q1 2026 (around $19 billion ARR), which suggests that Anthropic’s growth is what’s actually boosting Google Cloud.”
Our reading: Google Cloud's growth periods match Anthropic's big revenue jumps from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026, which suggests Anthropic's growth is what is actually boosting Google Cloud.
No horizon
Qualifier: suggests, based on matching timing
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This isn’t real demand!”
Our reading: Anthropic's circular TPU arrangement with Google does not represent real demand.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Google, Microsoft and Amazon’s AI Revenues Are Almost Entirely Based on Circular Financing Relationships That Should Be Illegal”
Our reading: Google, Microsoft and Amazon's AI revenues rest almost entirely on circular financing relationships, which should be illegal.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These relationships are utterly poisonous, and an intentional attempt to deceive investors and the general public.”
Our reading: The circular hyperscaler-AI lab relationships are an intentional attempt to deceive investors and the public.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Only Microsoft was smart enough to realize the problem, which is why it allowed Oracle to take over the majority of OpenAI’s future capacity (which may kill Oracle, by the way!), but both Google and Amazon keep feeding Anthropic money so that Anthropic can feed it right back to them.”
Our reading: Taking over the majority of OpenAI's future capacity may kill Oracle.
No horizon
Qualifier: Oracle taking over majority of OpenAI's future capacity
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“If it were an ethical business, it would simply stop taking on new clients, much like GitHub Copilot did as it transitions to token-based billing.”
Our reading: Anthropic should stop taking on new clients while capacity-constrained.
No horizon
Qualifier: given capacity crunch
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This is an ugly, wasteful, distressed company that has no idea what to do anymore, run by a mad king who literally cannot be fired”
Our reading: Meta is a wasteful, distressed company with no idea what to do.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Remember: Microsoft and Amazon are intentionally obfuscating their AI revenues by using “annualized” — a term they refuse to define that usually refers to a monthly figure times 12 — to define something in statements related to quarterly revenue.”
Our reading: Microsoft and Amazon intentionally obfuscate AI revenue by reporting undefined annualized figures.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“These companies are deliberately refusing to share their AI revenues: and it’s time for the tech and business media to begin asking them why!”
Our reading: The media should ask big tech why they deliberately refuse to share AI revenues.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“In reality, they’re the paypigs for Anthropic and OpenAI, providing more than 70% of their compute as a means of artificially inflating their AI revenues, knowing that analysts and the media will nod and smile without a single thought.”
Our reading: Microsoft, Amazon and Google are paypigs for Anthropic and OpenAI, providing more than 70% of their compute as a means of artificially inflating their AI revenues, knowing analysts and the media will not question it.
No horizon
Qualifier: 'their compute' is ambiguous between the labs' and the hyperscalers' compute
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The story of massive AI demand is a lie — a trillion dollars annihilated to create the largest circle jerk of all time.”
Our reading: The story of massive AI demand is a lie built on circular spending.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The only reason Google, Amazon and Microsoft are being tolerated at their current excess is because their non-AI segments continue to grow through endless price-increases and enshittification, and its external business units — by which I mean OpenAI and Anthropic — are yet to die.”
Our reading: The only reason Google, Amazon and Microsoft are tolerated at their current excess is that their non-AI segments keep growing through endless price increases and enshittification, and OpenAI and Anthropic have yet to die.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“If this breaks OpenAI I’ll be very surprised, but if it does it would be extremely fitting that Elon would accidentally destroy the AI industry, like Mr. Bean sitting on a button that launches a nuke.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI breaks OpenAI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This is effectively killing the product as they know it, and invalidates every single story about its revenue growth ever written.”
Our reading: Microsoft shifting GitHub Copilot to token-based billing is effectively killing the product as they know it and invalidates every story about its revenue growth ever written.
No horizon
Qualifier: shift to token-based billing
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Google and Amazon realize their AI revenues are contingent on the continued survival of Anthropic, and Amazon and Microsoft’s revenues are contingent on OpenAI AND Anthropic.”
Our reading: Google and Amazon realize their AI revenues are contingent on Anthropic's continued survival, and Amazon and Microsoft's revenues are contingent on both OpenAI and Anthropic.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It’s a mess, and a mistake, and eventually one of them is going to grow tired of it.”
Our reading: The arrangement is a mess and a mistake, and eventually one of the hyperscalers is going to grow tired of it.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“At some point these fucknuts are going to be forced to reckon with what they’re doing.”
Our reading: At some point the hyperscalers are going to be forced to reckon with what they are doing.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I truly think that it’s going to be like this if not crazier until one day when the music suddenly stops. Somebody is going to blink.”
Our reading: The AI frenzy will continue or intensify until it suddenly stops when someone blinks.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It’s the largest bubble in history, and has reached such an intellectual and financial scale that many have taken sides on it in a way that will be completely impossible to walk back if they’re wrong.”
Our reading: AI is the largest bubble in history and has reached such a scale that many have taken sides in a way that will be impossible to walk back if they are wrong.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“As things deteriorate, expect them to cling to their mythologies tighter and become more agitated.”
Our reading: As the AI situation deteriorates, boosters will cling more tightly to their narratives and grow more agitated.
No horizon
Only if: as things deteriorate
Held from this post (8)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: By the end of 2027, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will together have spent about $2 trillion on AI capital expenditures.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: 50% of big tech's upcoming revenues depend on OpenAI and Anthropic, neither of which can afford to pay, meaning 50% of Meta, Amazon and Google's revenues will come from their own venture investments or from venture capital.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently