“which also includes evidence that OpenAI's revenues were at around $4.5 billion by the end of September, a vast difference from the $4.3 billion for the first half of the year published by other outlets.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
OpenAI's revenues were around $4.5 billion by the end of September 2025, a vast difference from the $4.3 billion for the first half of the year published by other outlets.
Assessment: Unresolved Evidence as of
Where and when Ed Zitron wrote it
Where's Your Ed At, 2025, A Retrospective, paragraph 26.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment wyea-2025-a-retrospective-088e29-a1
We recorded 12 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-12-31. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- by the end of September 2025 (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- OpenAI's revenues
- around $4.5 billion
- by the end of September
- $4.3 billion for the first half of the year published by other outlets
Our interpretation
- Read the main amount as cumulative realized revenue from January 1 through September 30, 2025.
- The basis is estimate because the assertion derives from reporting and documents rather than a stated accounting standard.
- The ordinary reading is total company revenue, before treating a commercial partner's net settlement as the company's revenue.
- 'Around' permits rounding and modest estimation differences; no precise tolerance was supplied.
- The first-half figure is a separate statement about reporting. It cannot itself establish nine-month revenue.
- 'By the end of September' specifies the observation period, not a conditional antecedent.
Counts as supported if: Independent evidence measuring cumulative OpenAI revenue through September 2025 on the same basis places it around $4.5 billion.
Counts as contradicted if: Independent evidence measuring the same nine-month revenue on the same basis places it materially outside an ordinary approximation to $4.5 billion.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Unresolved
The record was checked, and the evidence available by the cutoff does not settle it.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Other outlets did report approximately $4.3 billion for the first half. That does not settle cumulative revenue through September. TechCrunch's independent source says the leaked Microsoft payments were net of reciprocal revenue sharing, so they cannot directly establish OpenAI's total revenue. This identifies a weakness in the $4.5 billion inference, but does not provide a matching total that proves it false.
Limitations
- News reporting was used because matching primary financial records were not obtained.
- A flawed inference is not itself proof that the stated amount is wrong.
- The first-half reporting component is corroborated, but remains context because its period differs.
Evidence (2 items)
Context only: TechCrunch,
net revenue share
Why it matters here: TechCrunch's independently contacted source describes net payments after reciprocal offsets. Those payments therefore cannot directly establish OpenAI's total revenue; this undermines the inference without proving a different nine-month total.
- Where
- Paragraph 5
- Publisher
- TechCrunch
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- Microsoft, Net revenue-sharing receipts from OpenAI, USD millions, estimate, 2025-01-01 to 2025-09-30
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: Reuters, syndicated by Yahoo Finance,
Reuters could not immediately verify the report.
Why it matters here: Reuters reports The Information's approximately $4.3 billion first-half revenue figure, confirming that this comparison appeared in other reporting. It neither independently verifies that amount nor measures the nine-month target.
- Publisher
- Reuters, syndicated by Yahoo Finance
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- OpenAI, Cumulative revenue, USD billions, estimate, 2025-01-01 to 2025-06-30
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
OpenAI's January–September 2025 revenue statement, or independently verified reporting of it, with a reconciliation of Microsoft revenue-sharing offsets and accounting treatment.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Where's Your Ed At, 2025, A Retrospective
which also includes evidence that OpenAI's revenues were at around $4.5 billion by the end of September, a vast difference from the $4.3 billion for the first half of the year published by other outlets.
- Where
- paragraph 26
- Published
- 2025-12-31
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment wyea-2025-a-retrospective-088e29-a1: Current. Outcome: Unresolved. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.