2025, A Retrospective
We recorded 12 claims from this post. 9 were checked against evidence. 3 can’t be checked. 7 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (12)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: MixedSaid
Causal claim
“Deep Impact, my analysis of the DeepSeek situation and why it scared the American AI industry (clue: it's cost-related and nothing to do with "national security").”
Our reading: DeepSeek scared the American AI industry because of cost, not because of national security.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The market report does not establish individual investors' or executives' private motives [e1].
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb”
Our reading: CoreWeave, an AI compute neocloud backed by NVIDIA, is a time bomb.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“there is no AI SaaS story, and everything rides - and dies - on selling GPUs.”
Our reading: There is no AI SaaS story, and everything in the AI industry rides, and dies, on selling GPUs.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“there are no profitable generative AI companies”
Our reading: No generative AI company is profitable.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The latest-quarter interpretation is added by the evaluator.
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
Observation
“how data center developers have no exit route, and US economic growth has become shouldered entirely by big tech.”
Our reading: Data center developers have no exit route, and US economic growth is carried entirely by big tech.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The period and literal reading materially affect this assessment.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“how its future relies on endless debt, how millions of GPUs are sitting waiting to be installed, and why it no longer makes sense to buy more GPUs.”
Our reading: NVIDIA's future relies on endless debt, millions of GPUs are sitting waiting to be installed, and it no longer makes sense to buy more GPUs.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The financial component has an unknown accounting basis.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Unprofitable, unsustainable AI threatens future of venture capital, private equity and the markets themselves.”
Our reading: Unprofitable, unsustainable AI threatens the future of venture capital, private equity, and the markets.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“which also includes evidence that OpenAI's revenues were at around $4.5 billion by the end of September, a vast difference from the $4.3 billion for the first half of the year published by other outlets.”
Our reading: OpenAI's revenues were around $4.5 billion by the end of September 2025, a vast difference from the $4.3 billion for the first half of the year published by other outlets.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: News reporting was used because matching primary financial records were not obtained.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“how AI revenues will never pay back the cost of these GPUs”
Our reading: AI revenues will never pay back the cost of these GPUs, meaning the NVIDIA GPUs being bought for AI.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: Projected payback and annualized revenue are not realized recovery.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“on how GPT-5's router mode actually costs OpenAI more money to run.”
Our reading: GPT-5's router mode costs OpenAI more money to run.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The comparison baseline is an evaluator interpretation.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“an analysis of reported cash burn and investments in OpenAI that proved the company burned more than $4 billion more than we know.”
Our reading: OpenAI burned more than $4 billion more cash than had been publicly known.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The historical period remains incompletely specified.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“I published proof that OpenAI couldn't afford to pay Oracle and Oracle didn't have the capacity to service their farcical $300 billion, 5-year-long deal.”
Our reading: As of September 12, 2025, OpenAI couldn't afford to pay Oracle and Oracle didn't have the capacity to service their $300 billion, five-year deal.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The affordability and capacity readings materially affect the test.
Held from this post (7)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Millions of GPUs are likely sitting in warehouses; there is no chance that 6 million Blackwell GPUs have been installed and turned on.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: As of September 26, 2025, OpenAI needed at least $1 trillion in the next four years to pull off any of its agreed-upon compute and data center deals.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: AI agents do not exist and cannot exist.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: AI companies' inflated valuations and unsustainable businesses make exits or IPOs impossible.