“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Marcus, in a bet co-signed with Miles Brundage, takes the side that by the end of 2027 AI systems will not be able to perform 8 of the 10 listed tasks, as determined by a panel of judges: he pays $2,000 to Brundage's chosen charity if they can, and Brundage pays $20,000 to Marcus's chosen charity if AI can do fewer than 8.
Assessment: Unresolved Not yet due on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet, paragraph 2.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027-fdcaed-a1
We recorded 2 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2024-12-30. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “by the end of 2027”
- Deadline state when assessed
- Not yet due
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- Not yet due (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- as determined by a panel of judges with broad discretion (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
- success judged on technical feasibility at modest per-task cost (say $1M compute + 10 person-weeks), even if no system has actually attempted a task (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
- tasks not performed by 10 completely separate systems, though some task tailoring is allowed (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
- excludes tasks involving physical action in the world (scope, stated by the speaker)
- the post says the 10:1 odds reflect Miles' confidence and readers should not infer Gary's beliefs from the odds (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- 8 of the 10 tasks
- by the end of 2027
- as determined by our panel of judges
- technically feasible
- 1 million dollars of compute + 10 person-weeks of effort
- not be performed by 10 completely separate systems
- excluded those involving physical action in the world
- readers are advised not to infer Gary’s beliefs from the odds
Our interpretation
- Assess Marcus’s side of the wager: fewer than eight qualifying tasks by the deadline. Do not infer a numerical confidence from the stakes.
- The conditional donation wording defines the wager’s outcomes, rather than a separate antecedent that must occur before assessing the capability forecast.
- The agreed panel determines task success, acceptable tailoring and reasonable costs. The stated cost figures are illustrative, not strict caps imposed by this assessment.
- Technical feasibility by the deadline counts even without an actual attempt. The panel may publish its decision after the deadline.
- Donation amounts are stakes, not company financial metrics.
Counts as supported if: The mutually agreed panel determines that fewer than eight of the ten specified tasks were technically feasible by December 31, 2027, under the bet’s cost, tailoring and system constraints.
Counts as contradicted if: The mutually agreed panel determines that at least eight of the ten specified tasks were technically feasible by December 31, 2027, under those constraints.
Prospective: these criteria were frozen before the deadline, while the outcome was not yet public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Unresolved
The record was checked, and the evidence available by the cutoff does not settle it.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- Not yet due
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
The deadline is December 31, 2027, after the October 28, 2026 evaluation date. The search found no admissible final panel ruling that meets the early-resolution rule. Market forecasts and informal judgments cannot replace the agreed panel’s decision. A lack of certified successes before the deadline does not establish that Marcus’s side will win.
Limitations
- Failure to locate a ruling does not prove that none exists.
- Some relevant pages were inaccessible, and market comments lacked verifiable publication dates.
- This assessment does not independently score the ten tasks or infer Marcus’s confidence from the odds.
Evidence (1 item)
Context only: Marcus on AI — joint statement by Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage,
The bet will be decided by a panel of judges (determined by mutual agreement) with broad discretion.
Why it matters here: This establishes the agreed adjudication procedure. It provides no evidence that either side has won.
- Publisher
- Marcus on AI — joint statement by Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
- Kind of source
- Secondary summary
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
A public ruling by the mutually agreed panel establishing how many tasks were technically feasible by December 31, 2027 under the agreed constraints. Fewer than eight supports Marcus’s side; eight or more contradicts it. A final certification of eight qualifying tasks could resolve it early.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet
If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.
- Where
- paragraph 2
- Published
- 2024-12-30
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027-fdcaed-a1: Current. Outcome: Unresolved. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027-fdcaed-a1.