Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet
We recorded 2 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 1 can’t be checked. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (2)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”
Our reading: Marcus, in a bet co-signed with Miles Brundage, takes the side that by the end of 2027 AI systems will not be able to perform 8 of the 10 listed tasks, as determined by a panel of judges: he pays $2,000 to Brundage's chosen charity if they can, and Brundage pays $20,000 to Marcus's chosen charity if AI can do fewer than 8.
Not yet due Evidence as of
Limitation: Failure to locate a ruling does not prove that none exists.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Both of us agree that the achievement of 8 out of 10 of these tasks would be strong evidence for the G (General) in Artificial General Intelligence having been achieved.”
Our reading: Marcus and Brundage agree that achieving 8 of the 10 listed tasks would be strong evidence that the 'General' in Artificial General Intelligence had been achieved.
No horizon
Qualifier: jointly agreed with Miles Brundage