“Reliably drive a car in a novel location that they haven’t previously encountered, even in the face of unusual circumstances like hand-lettered signs, without the assistance of other humans.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to reliably drive a car in novel locations with unusual circumstances without human assistance.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Not checked against evidence
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Superhuman AGI is not nigh, paragraph 9 (item 1 of 11).
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence
- Not checkedboth screens found it cannot be checked
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh-fade4b-a1
We recorded 13 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2024-04-12. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “by the end of 2025”
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- without assistance of other humans (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
- novel locations with unusual circumstances (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- without assistance of other humans
- novel locations with unusual circumstances
- by the end of 2025
Our interpretation
None added.
This claim is not graded on evidence. The record checks that the words are quoted correctly and attributed to the right person, and that the claim is classified correctly.
Current assessment
Not graded on evidence
Outcome: Can’t be checked
Both AI providers screened this claim on their own and found that public evidence could not settle it. It is recorded and attributed, not scored.
Why it can’t be checked
Both screens gave the same reason:
- Stated as a chance or a possibility, or at medium or low confidence.
- Evidence
- Not checked
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Not checked against evidence. Two independent screens, one from each provider, both found this stated as a chance or a possibility, or at medium or low confidence.
Limitations
None recorded.
Evidence (0 items)
No evidence was searched for. Both screens found that public evidence could not settle this claim.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Superhuman AGI is not nigh
Reliably drive a car in a novel location that they haven’t previously encountered, even in the face of unusual circumstances like hand-lettered signs, without the assistance of other humans.
- Published
- 2024-04-12
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh-fade4b-a1: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Not checked against evidence. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh-fade4b-a1.