Superhuman AGI is not nigh
We recorded 13 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 12 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (13)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Right now there are likely hundreds, maybe thousands or even millions of such things.”
Our reading: As of April 2024 there are likely hundreds or more pieces of intellectual work that the best humans can do and AI cannot.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Reliably drive a car in a novel location that they haven’t previously encountered, even in the face of unusual circumstances like hand-lettered signs, without the assistance of other humans.”
Our reading: AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to reliably drive a car in novel locations with unusual circumstances without human assistance.
No horizon
Qualifier: without assistance of other humans
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Watch previously unseen mainstream movie and be able to follow plot twists and know when to laugh, and be able to summarize it without giving away any spoilers or making up anything that didn’t actually happen”
Our reading: AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to watch an unseen mainstream movie, follow plot twists, know when to laugh, and summarize it without spoilers or fabrications.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Drive off-road vehicles, without maps, across streams, around obstacles such as fallen trees, and so on.”
Our reading: AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to drive off-road vehicles without maps across streams and around obstacles.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Learn to ride a mountain bike off-road through forest trails”
Our reading: AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to learn to ride a mountain bike off-road through forest trails.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Clean unfamiliar houses and apartments”
Our reading: AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to clean unfamiliar houses and apartments.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Walk into random kitchens and prepare a cup of coffee or make breakfast”
Our reading: AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to walk into random kitchens and prepare coffee or breakfast.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Babysit children in an unfamiliar homes and keep them safe”
Our reading: AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to babysit children in unfamiliar homes and keep them safe.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Tend to the physical and psychological needs of an elderly or infirm person”
Our reading: AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to tend to the physical and psychological needs of an elderly or infirm person.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Write cogent, persuasive legal briefs without hallucinating any cases”
Our reading: AI is unlikely by end of 2025 to write cogent, persuasive legal briefs without hallucinating any cases.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“None seem to me to be within immediate reach.”
Our reading: None of the listed tasks seem within immediate reach of AI.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“I couldn’t agree more. And parallel arguments could be made in many domains.”
Our reading: Marcus endorses the view that ChatGPT and similar tools will not themselves be virtual scientists anytime soon, and says parallel arguments could be made in many domains.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: “Anytime soon” supplies no deadline; reaching the evaluation date cannot establish support.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Learn and master the basics of almost any new video game within a few minutes or hours, and solve original puzzles in the alternate world of that video game.”
Our reading: Marcus seriously doubts that, by the end of 2025, AI will be able to learn and master the basics of almost any new video game within a few minutes or hours and solve original puzzles in the alternate world of that video game.
Deadline passed Evidence as of
Limitation: This record does not show what AI systems could do with new video games in 2025. No evidence on that question is part of this record.
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- Attribution is uncertain
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: As of April 2024, all listed tasks (including Pulitzer-caliber books, Oscar-caliber screenplays, Nobel-caliber discoveries) appear outside the bounds of current AI.