“Worse, they are burning billions of dollars of month.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
OpenAI is burning billions of dollars per month.
Assessment: Unresolved Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, OpenAI’s “Code Red”, paragraph 6.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-openais-code-red-111356-a2
We recorded 8 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-12-03. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- they are burning
- billions of dollars
- of month
Our interpretation
- Read 'of month' as the evident typo 'a month'.
- In the surrounding discussion of a war chest and runway, burning means net cash consumption, not gross spending or accounting losses.
- Read plural billions as at least $2 billion per month on average.
- Use July through September 2025, the latest completed calendar quarter that could ordinarily have been reported before the post. This period is selected from the ongoing-state wording, not from the availability of a favorable number.
- The claim cites no financial source or accounting basis, so the contract basis is unknown.
Counts as supported if: Comparable cash-flow records show at least $6 billion of net cash burn during July–September 2025, equivalent to at least $2 billion per month.
Counts as contradicted if: Comparable cash-flow records show less than $6 billion of net cash burn during that quarter. A different period's average or an accounting loss is insufficient.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Unresolved
The record was checked, and the evidence available by the cutoff does not settle it.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Reuters reported on September 29, 2025, that OpenAI burned $2.5 billion in the first half of 2025 and targeted $8.5 billion for the full year; Reuters said it “could not immediately verify the report” [e1]. CNBC reported on February 20, 2026, that OpenAI burned $8 billion during 2025 [e2]. These figures do not establish whether net cash burn reached $6 billion during July–September 2025 [e1, e2]. Microsoft's disclosure covers that quarter but measures investment losses affecting Microsoft's earnings, not OpenAI's net cash burn [e3].
Limitations
- The first-half and full-year reports do not establish a common accounting basis or isolate July–September cash burn; subtracting their figures cannot settle the claim [e1, e2].
- CNBC's full-year figure relies on unnamed sources [e2].
- Microsoft's disclosure does not supply OpenAI's cash-flow measurement [e3].
- The contract leaves the claim's accounting basis unknown and prevents supported or contradicted scoring until that basis is established.
Evidence (3 items)
Context only: Reuters, republished by WSAU,
OpenAI looks to meet its full-year revenue target of $13 billion and a cash-burn target of $8.5 billion, the report added.
Why it matters here: The reported annual cash-burn target is relevant background but is a forecast for a different period. Reuters also states that it could not independently verify the underlying report.
- Publisher
- Reuters, republished by WSAU
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- OpenAI, Projected annual net cash burn, USD billions of dollars, estimate, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: CNBC,
The company burned through $8 billion, lower than its $9 billion target, they said.
Why it matters here: Reported full-year burn averages about $0.667 billion per month. That weighs against treating billions per month as the year's ordinary rate, but does not isolate the selected quarter.
- Publisher
- CNBC
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- OpenAI, Average monthly net cash burn, USD billions of dollars per month, estimate, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31
- Arithmetic
- 8 / 12 = 0.6666667 billion USD per month (inputs: Reported 2025 cash burn: USD 8 billion; 12 months in calendar 2025; Rounded to three decimal places: 0.667 billion USD per month.)
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: Microsoft,
Microsoft has provided non-GAAP financial measures related to the impact from investments in OpenAI to aid investors in better understanding our performance.
Why it matters here: The disclosure measures the effect of OpenAI investments on Microsoft's earnings. It cannot be substituted for OpenAI's net cash consumption.
- Publisher
- Microsoft
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Measures
- Microsoft, Impact of OpenAI investments on net income, USD dollars, gaap, 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
Establish the claim's accounting basis and obtain comparable cash-flow records showing whether OpenAI's net cash burn before financing during July–September 2025 reached $6 billion. The records must define the measure, exclude noncash charges, and distinguish financing receipts from revenue.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, OpenAI’s “Code Red”
Worse, they are burning billions of dollars of month.
- Where
- paragraph 6
- Published
- 2025-12-03
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-openais-code-red-111356-a2: Current. Outcome: Unresolved. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.