OpenAI’s “Code Red”
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 7 can’t be checked. 6 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Things took longer to unravel than I thought they would, but OpenAI’s unraveling has begun.”
Our reading: OpenAI's unraveling has begun.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“That code red may in stem part from a recent exodus of users:”
Our reading: OpenAI's code red may stem in part from a recent exodus of users.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Worse, they are burning billions of dollars of month.”
Our reading: OpenAI is burning billions of dollars per month.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The first-half and full-year reports do not establish a common accounting basis or isolate July–September cash burn; subtracting their figures cannot settle the claim [e1, e2].
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“My guess is that they have cumulatively raised on the order of $100 billion since they launched, perhaps more than any other company in history, but have already spent most of it, and likely don’t have much more than a year’s runway left.”
Our reading: Marcus guesses that OpenAI has cumulatively raised on the order of $100 billion since launch, perhaps more than any other company in history, has already spent most of it, and likely has not much more than a year's runway left.
No horizon
Qualifier: my guess (applies to the whole estimate)
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If most or all opt out, OpenAI’s valuation could drop, perhaps precipitously, as happened with WeWork, which dropped rapidly from its peak of $47 billion to near-bankruptcy.”
Our reading: If most or all investors opt out, OpenAI's valuation could drop, perhaps precipitously, like WeWork's.
No horizon
Only if: if most or all investors opt out
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“And of course many other companies are also in close relationship with OpenAI, with a lot of future orders from them on the books. These too might drop.”
Our reading: If OpenAI drops, other companies with many future OpenAI orders on their books might also drop.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI drops
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If OpenAI drops, Nvidia might well also drop.”
Our reading: If OpenAI drops, Nvidia might well drop too.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI drops
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“In the worse case, the government might seriously consider a bailout a taxpayer expense.”
Our reading: In the worst case, if OpenAI falls, the government might seriously consider a taxpayer-funded bailout.
No horizon
Only if: worst case
Held from this post (6)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI has lost its lead and massively overextended itself.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI is troubled, with modest revenue far short of its trillion-dollar commitments, as shown by Altman's non-answer.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Because OpenAI is losing money and can't stand on its own for long, it is at the mercy of investors.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: If things continue to deteriorate, OpenAI's next funding round will be much harder to raise than the last.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Pension funds like CalPERS invested in OpenAI stand to take sizable losses if OpenAI cannot maintain its trajectory.