Claims that can’t be checked, page 2 of 37
Claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron. Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29.
Claims that can’t be checked (3643)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 2 of 37: claims 101 to 200 of 3643, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Though some of them talk a big game about building or training their own models, doing so is enormously expensive with little chance of a payoff, especially given the massive advantage in compute, capital and talent held by the labs.”
Our reading: AI startups training their own models is enormously expensive with little chance of payoff given the labs' advantages.
No horizon
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“We must treat OpenAI and Anthropic as what they are: economic disasters waiting to happen.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic should be treated as economic disasters waiting to happen.
No horizon
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“And things are only going to get worse from here.”
Our reading: Things are only going to get worse from here.
No horizon
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“In truth, I think there’s a world where AI revenues are much lower ($150 billion or less) and Anthropic and OpenAI’s share is more like 70% to 80%, especially in the case of Oracle.”
Our reading: Hyperscaler AI revenues may actually be $150 billion or less, with Anthropic and OpenAI's share around 70–80%.
No horizon
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Considering that The Information had it at around $900 million a month beforehand, I think it’s likely that its revenues sit at around $300 million to $400 million.”
Our reading: Cognition's actual revenues are likely around $300–400 million despite its claimed $1 billion annualized figure.
No horizon
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“AI data centers — and their associated costs and debt — are priced for a level of perfection that no other industry has ever rivaled.”
Our reading: AI data centers and their associated costs and debt are priced for a level of perfection that no other industry has ever rivaled.
No horizon
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“Goldman aggressively clears it throat by adding that “revenues are growing quickly and revenue backlogs are sizable”, but that’s far from a foregone conclusion considering (as I’ve mentioned) the fact that hyperscalers appear to be warehousing hundreds of billions of dollars of GPUs”
Our reading: Goldman's statement that AI revenues are growing quickly and revenue backlogs are sizable is far from a foregone conclusion, given that hyperscalers appear to be warehousing hundreds of billions of dollars of GPUs.
No horizon
Qualifier: hyperscalers appear to be warehousing GPUs
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“Anthropic is a cloud software company with volatile products and economics, sold in a fundamentally insincere and deceptive manner, pushed upon society with threats of death and destruction by aggressive zealots and members of the media bereft of shame.”
Our reading: Anthropic is a cloud software company with volatile products and economics, sold in a fundamentally insincere and deceptive manner and pushed on society with threats of death and destruction by aggressive zealots and shameless media.
No horizon
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“And if the price of their debt is crashing — and the expected yield on the future debt is skyrocketing as a result — then their problems are everyone’s problems.”
Our reading: If CoreWeave's and Oracle's debt prices are crashing and expected yields on their future debt are skyrocketing as a result, their problems are everyone's problems.
No horizon
Only if: if their debt prices are crashing and expected future yields skyrocketing
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“This company will, if allowed to go public, likely lean on the very same junk-grade/high-yield debt that AI data centers and neoclouds like CoreWeave currently need, and it will do so at volumes of somewhere between $50 billion and $100 billion a year for a company with few assets, endless losses and a CEO with the grace of a drunk elephant.”
Our reading: If Anthropic goes public, it will likely rely on junk/high-yield debt of $50–100 billion a year.
No horizon
Only if: if Anthropic goes public
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“While things could change in 2026, it’s important to note how many people said that Anthropic was “a better business” that would “be profitable faster than OpenAI,” which is, until we are able to see both of their audited 2026 financials, somewhere between a myth and an outright lie.”
Our reading: The claim many people made, that Anthropic was a better business that would be profitable faster than OpenAI, is somewhere between a myth and an outright lie until both companies' audited 2026 financials can be seen.
No horizon
Qualifier: until both audited 2026 financials are available
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“Once this happens, there will be a fundamental reevaluation of the value of all AI data center debt, which may lead to a sell-off of the underlying bonds and associated debt, which will make any investor deeply entrenched in the GPU credit business extremely nervous and, in some cases, unable to exit their positions in anything short of an embarrassing fashion.”
Our reading: Once AI data center debt becomes untenable, all such debt will be reevaluated, possibly triggering a bond sell-off that traps GPU credit investors.
No horizon
Only if: once AI data center debt becomes untenable
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“This means that before the bubble bursts, these companies will continue to sap the venture capital world of billions more dollars, all with little chance of an acquisition and a near-zero chance of an IPO considering their ugly economics.”
Our reading: Before the AI bubble bursts, AI startups will absorb billions more in VC with little chance of acquisition and near-zero chance of IPO.
No horizon
Qualifier: before the bubble bursts
Source: Dead Money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“And I very much agree with the Florida AG that OpenAI doesn’t have the ability to properly regulate its own tech.”
Our reading: OpenAI lacks the ability to properly regulate its own technology.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The searches found no court ruling on Florida's injunction motion by the evaluation date. Court records were not checked directly.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Two and a half months later, probably nobody reading this has even heard of Nemoclaw.”
Our reading: Two and a half months after NemoClaw was announced, probably nobody reading this post has even heard of it.
No horizon
Qualifier: probably
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Nvidia often announces software, like Nemoclaw, that had had relatively little impact.”
Our reading: Nvidia often announces software, such as NemoClaw, that has had relatively little impact.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The evidence has no adoption, usage, deployment or download figures for NemoClaw.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I love, by the way, that the important stuff is handed over to deterministic symbolic code. Good choice, since LLMs in themselves should never be trusted.”
Our reading: LLMs on their own should never be trusted, so it is right to hand critical agent-safety functions to deterministic symbolic code.
No horizon
Qualifier: LLMs on their own
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Every state and country should follow Florida’s lead.”
Our reading: Every state and country should follow Florida in seeking to pause OpenAI's ChatGPT development.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We need an injunction NOW. Otherwise we are playing Russian roulette, hoping that some new software package can save us before some massive and possibly deadly AI-induced infrastructure problem strikes.”
Our reading: An injunction against OpenAI is needed immediately; without one, society risks a massive and possibly deadly AI-induced infrastructure problem.
No horizon
Qualifier: otherwise risk massive, possibly deadly AI-induced infrastructure problem
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I still think Jensen had the right idea: if a company can’t control its products, we should shut it down.”
Our reading: Marcus endorses the idea he attributes to Jensen Huang that, if a company can't control its products, we should shut it down.
No horizon
Only if: if a company can't control its products
Source: BREAKING: AI agent incident toll has risen to tens of thousands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Causal claim
“But the companies blundered on, because agents use vastly more tokens than simple chatbots, and thus drive up revenue.”
Our reading: AI companies kept pushing agents despite the security risks because agents use far more tokens than chatbots and so bring in more revenue.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: AI agent incident toll has risen to tens of thousands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“All of this seems possibly illegal to me.”
Our reading: The conduct behind the AI agent incidents may be illegal.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: AI agent incident toll has risen to tens of thousands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If we don’t, there is a very real chance that American AI will become the scourge of the planet, and that nobody will ever trust American AI, ever again.”
Our reading: If general-purpose agents are not temporarily recalled, there is a very real chance American AI becomes the scourge of the planet and is never trusted again.
No horizon
Only if: if general-purpose agents are not temporarily recalled
Source: BREAKING: AI agent incident toll has risen to tens of thousands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“In any case—and I am sorry to be a broken record about this, but each day makes it clearer—we should have a temporary recall of general-purpose agents until this mess can be sorted out.”
Our reading: General-purpose AI agents should be temporarily recalled until the security problems are sorted out.
No horizon
Qualifier: until the security mess is sorted out
Source: BREAKING: AI agent incident toll has risen to tens of thousands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s time (past time, really) to (temporarily) shut down OpenAI.”
Our reading: OpenAI should be temporarily shut down now.
No horizon
Qualifier: temporarily
Source: BREAKING: OpenAI’s epic meltdown — and how Sam Altman is blowing up Jensen Huang’s reputation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“What they should do is to replace management with someone a whole lot more competent, and a whole lot more candid.”
Our reading: OpenAI's board should replace management with someone far more competent and far more candid.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: OpenAI’s epic meltdown — and how Sam Altman is blowing up Jensen Huang’s reputation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“If things gets even worse, as they may well, he will own the mess.”
Our reading: OpenAI's security situation may well get even worse.
No horizon
Source: BREAKING: OpenAI’s epic meltdown — and how Sam Altman is blowing up Jensen Huang’s reputation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Their software has repeatedly been shown to be reckless, and because they have consistently covered things up we cannot trust them.”
Our reading: OpenAI's software has repeatedly been shown to be reckless, and because OpenAI has consistently covered things up, we cannot trust it.
No horizon
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“If a company can’t control its software, we should shut it down.”
Our reading: An AI company that cannot control its software should be shut down.
No horizon
Qualifier: if a company can't control its software
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“They seem neither competent nor trustworthy.”
Our reading: OpenAI seems neither competent nor trustworthy.
No horizon
Qualifier: seem
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“I doubt that that will happen of course.”
Our reading: OpenAI is unlikely to be shut down, even temporarily.
No horizon
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“What we should do is temporarily shut OpenAI down, perhaps put them into receivership until they clean up their act, and charge them with computer crimes.”
Our reading: OpenAI should be temporarily shut down, perhaps put into receivership until it cleans up its act, and charged with computer crimes.
No horizon
Qualifier: temporarily
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“By Jensen’s logic (and my own) we ought at this point be (at least temporarily) shutting down OpenAI.”
Our reading: OpenAI should now be shut down, at least temporarily.
No horizon
Qualifier: at least temporarily
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“And if we can’t trust them now, and we know that things will likely get worse, we are in serious trouble.”
Our reading: Things will likely get worse.
No horizon
Scope: 'things' is unspecified; context is AI companies' untrustworthy conduct and AI risks
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“And any sane government should realize that if OpenAI can hack Australia, they could be next.”
Our reading: If OpenAI can hack Australia, other governments could be next, which Marcus says any sane government should realize.
No horizon
Only if: if OpenAI can hack Australia
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“This isn’t a job for Bessent over in Treasury (much less Sacks, who is no longer AI czar or Huang who doesn’t work for the government), but the Department of Justice (and perhaps other departments) needs to step up.”
Our reading: The Department of Justice should act against OpenAI over its AI hacking incidents.
No horizon
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“To sum up, the time has come to shut OpenAI down, at least temporarily, and charge them with computer crimes. (Or at least investigate.)”
Our reading: OpenAI should be shut down at least temporarily and charged with, or at least investigated for, computer crimes.
No horizon
Qualifier: at least temporarily
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“Cover-up, or at least slow-walking, seems to be company policy.”
Our reading: OpenAI appears to have a policy of covering up or slow-walking disclosure of security incidents.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“A lot of the legal definitions for computer crimes require intent, and the AI companies can argue that their software has no intent. We must expand the scope of the computer=crime laws to include wholesale negligence and repeated crimes.”
Our reading: Congress should expand computer-crime laws to cover wholesale negligence and repeated crimes by AI companies, since intent requirements create a loophole.
No horizon
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s clear that at least one of the AI companies simply isn’t responsible. We need to figure out now what to do about that fact.”
Our reading: It is clear that at least one of the AI companies simply isn't responsible, and we need to figure out now what to do about that.
No horizon
Scope: at least one of the AI companies
Source: “I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I happen to think a slowdown might be a good idea, especially if we made it now while we are still ahead — that could actually lock in our lead!.”
Our reading: A slowdown in AI development might be a good idea, especially if the US does it now while still ahead.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially if done now while the US is still ahead
Source: Dear President Trump, here’s a deal you can actually make that will make you look great
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“I happen to think a slowdown might be a good idea, especially if we made it now while we are still ahead — that could actually lock in our lead!.”
Our reading: If the US adopted an AI slowdown now while ahead, it could lock in the US lead.
No horizon
Only if: if the US slows down AI development now while still ahead
Source: Dear President Trump, here’s a deal you can actually make that will make you look great
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“And I would caution you that if we don’t have a slowdown, really bad things might happen, and you would take a lot of the blame.”
Our reading: Without an AI slowdown, really bad things might happen, and Trump would take much of the blame.
No horizon
Only if: if there is no slowdown
Source: Dear President Trump, here’s a deal you can actually make that will make you look great
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“If you make a deal on all this, you really could win that Nobel.”
Our reading: If Trump makes a deal with China on the AI collaboration Marcus proposes (such as on cancer and cybersecurity), he really could win a Nobel Prize.
No horizon
Only if: if Trump makes a deal with China on AI collaboration as proposed
Source: Dear President Trump, here’s a deal you can actually make that will make you look great
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Instead, you can go for something that will surprise a lot of folks: you can go for collaboration — just like we did back in the Cold War with the Soviet Union, around things like space and smallpox. But this time around cancer and cybersecurity.”
Our reading: The US should pursue AI collaboration with China on cancer and cybersecurity, as with the Soviet Union in the Cold War.
No horizon
Qualifier: around cancer and cybersecurity
Source: Dear President Trump, here’s a deal you can actually make that will make you look great
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The need for transparency auditing.”
Our reading: AI systems should be subject to transparency auditing.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The need for global dialogue and international cooperation.”
Our reading: AI governance requires global dialogue and international cooperation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The need for immediate action.”
Our reading: Action on AI governance is needed immediately.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The need for liability.”
Our reading: There is a need for liability in AI governance.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The need for preflight safety testing.”
Our reading: AI systems should undergo safety testing before deployment.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Humanity will regret it if we do not take heed.”
Our reading: Humanity will regret it if it does not heed Bengio's warnings about AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: if Bengio's warnings are not heeded
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“At this point, with leading scientists (like Bengio) and major CEOs all reaching consensus, there is no excuse not to start implementing them.”
Our reading: Because scientists and AI CEOs agree, policymakers should start putting preflight testing, transparency auditing, liability, and international cooperation in place now.
No horizon
Qualifier: given consensus among leading scientists and major CEOs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“I understand why the UN had to give a microphone to Trump today, but I don’t see why they chose to give a microphone to Altman.”
Our reading: Marcus says he understands why the UN had to give Trump a platform, but he does not see why it chose to give Sam Altman one to brief the Security Council on AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: in contrast to Trump, whose platform he says he understands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Maybe it will work this time, maybe it won’t. I can’t really say for sure.”
Our reading: It is uncertain whether Meta Muse will work where Facebook M failed.
No horizon
Source: The secret behind Meta’s Muse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Rhetoric
“Dude just keeps making the same “mistakes”over and over.”
Our reading: Zuckerberg keeps making the same "mistakes" over and over.
No horizon
Qualifier: "mistakes" in scare quotes
Source: The secret behind Meta’s Muse
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“I fear that every single model around existing and future data center construction and AI compute demand is wrong, and that every assumption we have about the underlying economics of AI is corrupted by the belief that there’s far more operational capacity than there really is.”
Our reading: The author fears that every model of existing and future data center construction and AI compute demand is wrong, and that every assumption about the underlying economics of AI is corrupted by the belief that there is far more operational capacity than there really is.
No horizon
Qualifier: I fear
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Most of NVIDIA’s sales are sitting in warehouses, and that is a significant disclosure that NVIDIA should have already been forced to make.”
Our reading: NVIDIA should have been forced to disclose that most of its sales are sitting in warehouses.
No horizon
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It’s also clear that Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, SpaceX, and every neocloud are purchasing NVIDIA GPUs tens of billions at a time under the implicit knowledge that it will take years to build the capacity and connect the power to them, creating what amounts to the largest pre-order campaign in the history of capitalism, but also a material misrepresentation of the current AI buildout.”
Our reading: It is clear that Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, SpaceX and every neocloud are buying NVIDIA GPUs tens of billions at a time, implicitly knowing it will take years to build the capacity and connect power, which amounts to the largest pre-order campaign in the history of capitalism and a material misrepresentation of the current AI buildout.
No horizon
Qualifier: it's also clear
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Everybody celebrating Anthropic’s (entirely fictional) plans to have 5GW of capacity by the end of 2026 should know that this company is inspiring one the largest misallocation of capital in the history of capitalism.”
Our reading: Anthropic's plan to have 5GW of capacity by the end of 2026 is entirely fictional, and the company is inspiring one of the largest misallocations of capital in the history of capitalism.
No horizon
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“This, by the way, is the problem with hyperscalers not explicitly breaking out their AI revenue, because in doing so they create the (I’d argue deliberate) illusion that AI capex is creating revenue growth, which both tricks investors into buying their stock and tricks developers into building AI data centers, believing that capex quickly translates into revenue.”
Our reading: By not breaking out AI revenue, hyperscalers create an arguably deliberate illusion that AI capex drives revenue growth, misleading investors and developers.
No horizon
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“Everybody wants AI to be just like the Dot-Com Bubble, when I fear that GPUs may end up like the millions of unsold copies of Atari’s ET found buried in New Mexico.”
Our reading: The author fears that GPUs may end up like the millions of unsold copies of Atari's ET found buried in New Mexico.
No horizon
Qualifier: I fear
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Perhaps this doesn’t rise to the level of SEC action, but every single journalist and analyst should be asking Jensen Huang and every hyperscaler executive buying GPUs the following questions:”
Our reading: Journalists and analysts should press NVIDIA and hyperscaler executives on how many GPUs are actually operational and generating revenue.
No horizon
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“In other words, I think everybody is completely wrong about data center capacity, and it’s going to be a nightmare to untangle once they work it out.”
Our reading: The author thinks everybody is completely wrong about data center capacity, and that it will be a nightmare to untangle once they work it out.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“In all honesty, the best case scenario would be if NVIDIA stopped selling GPUs, or AI data center debt stopped being issued, because every single time a data center is funded and breaks ground, it increases the severity of the overbuild scenario.”
Our reading: The best-case scenario would be for NVIDIA to stop selling GPUs or for AI data center debt to stop being issued, because every time a data center is funded and breaks ground it makes the overbuild worse.
No horizon
Qualifier: every single time a data center is funded and breaks ground
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“While I cannot say the exact rationale for making these statements, I can find no way to interpret them other than being an act of deception.”
Our reading: The author cannot say the exact rationale, but can find no way to interpret Microsoft's FY26 earnings-call statements about adding a gigawatt of capacity a quarter other than as an act of deception.
No horizon
Qualifier: I cannot say the exact rationale
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“And if the truth — and this very much seems to be the case — is that NVIDIA has sold hundreds of billions of dollars of GPUs years in advance, that materially changes everything about the AI bubble and the AI data center buildout.”
Our reading: If NVIDIA has sold hundreds of billions of dollars of GPUs years in advance, which very much seems to be the case, that materially changes everything about the AI bubble and the AI data center buildout.
No horizon
Only if: if NVIDIA has sold hundreds of billions of dollars of GPUs years in advance
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“If Microsoft is struggling, everybody’s struggling, and we may have a very inconvenient truth: that NVIDIA has potentially sold hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance.”
Our reading: If Microsoft is struggling, everybody is struggling, and it may be true that NVIDIA has potentially sold hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance.
No horizon
Only if: if Microsoft is struggling
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“It has claimed again and again that it has brought gigawatts of capacity online for the best part of a year, all, in my opinion, with the intent of misrepresenting the scale of an AI data center buildout where I believe most of the GPUs, to quote Satya Nadella, are now “sitting in inventory that [they] can’t plug in.””
Our reading: In Zitron's opinion, most of Microsoft's GPUs are sitting in inventory uninstalled and its capacity claims are intended to misrepresent the AI buildout.
No horizon
Qualifier: in my opinion
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“Hyperscalers have a spending problem.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers have a spending problem.
No horizon
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“This is a huge scandal.”
Our reading: It is a huge scandal that Microsoft buys GPUs it has nowhere to put while saying it is bringing gigawatts of capacity online.
No horizon
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“None of this ever had anything to do with AI, and everybody who cheered Jensen Huang’s ascent in the belief it did is a mark.”
Our reading: The NVIDIA GPU boom never had anything to do with AI itself.
No horizon
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“The longer this continues, the more promises are made, the more projects that are announced…the worse it’s going to be.”
Our reading: The longer the AI buildout continues and more projects are announced, the worse the eventual fallout will be.
No horizon
Only if: the longer this continues
Source: Where're All The AI Chips?
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“An international advisory commission to audit new systems after they are released, on an ongoing basis. Again, independent scientists must have a voice, with real authority to demand change or even recall systems that prove dangerous.”
Our reading: An international commission should continuously audit AI systems after release, and independent scientists on it should have real power to demand changes or recall dangerous systems.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“Monitoring is an absolute foundation of cybersecurity, and sacrificing it is a mistake. They should not have been allowed to make that decision on their own.”
Our reading: Giving up monitoring is a mistake, and OpenAI should not have been allowed to decide on its own to release a less monitorable model.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“The choices that we make now around AI may reverberate for generations.”
Our reading: The choices made now about AI may have effects that last for generations.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We also need to wean ourselves from an addiction to large language models, and to foster more research into outside-the-box alternatives that are more interpretable and more tractable.”
Our reading: We need to wean ourselves from an addiction to large language models and to foster more research into outside-the-box alternatives that are more interpretable and more tractable.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“Although I think it is maybe still possible to achieve a net positive —or even great — outcome with AI, perhaps transforming technology and medicine, what I see in the discourse around AI frightens me.”
Our reading: It may still be possible to get a net positive or even great outcome from AI, possibly transforming technology and medicine.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“An international agreement to not deploy architectures that are are demonstrably harmful. We must hold the frontier labs accountable for the lax security.”
Our reading: There should be an international agreement not to deploy demonstrably harmful AI architectures, and frontier labs should be held accountable for lax security.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Observation
“(Many also overestimate AI.)”
Our reading: Many of the AI extinction scenarios Marcus has seen also overestimate AI.
No horizon
Scope: of the extinction scenarios he has seen
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“One extreme is absolutely zero regulation. Let AI rip, and hope for the best. Hope is not a strategy.”
Our reading: Having zero AI regulation and hoping for the best is not an acceptable strategy.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Forecast
“But that outcome, taken literally, is extremely unlikely; every scenario for that that I have seen underestimates human ingenuity and human resourcefulness.”
Our reading: Literal AI-caused extinction, which doomers insist is imminent, is extremely unlikely, and every extinction scenario Marcus has seen underestimates human ingenuity and resourcefulness.
No horizon
Qualifier: taken literally
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“The establishment and empowerment of an international advisory commission to evaluate the risks versus benefits of new systems before they are introduced. Independent scientists must have a voice.”
Our reading: An empowered international advisory commission, including independent scientists, should assess the risks and benefits of new AI systems before they are released.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“We need to hold AI companies accountable for the harms their products cause.”
Our reading: AI companies must be held accountable for harms their products cause.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Conditional forecast
“(We may also face a recession, if the massive bets on AI are unsustainable.)”
Our reading: If the massive bets on AI turn out to be unsustainable, a recession may follow.
No horizon
Only if: if the massive bets on AI are unsustainable
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“About the worst thing that we could do is to allow OpenAI to do what OpenAI has just done, which is to release a new model that is harder to monitor than its predecessors.”
Our reading: Allowing OpenAI to do what it has just done, releasing a new model that is harder to monitor than its predecessors, is about the worst thing we could do.
No horizon
Qualifier: about
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“And we need to replace vague talk about alignment with concrete steps like improving sandboxing and monitoring to better contain current systems.”
Our reading: Vague alignment talk should give way to concrete containment measures like better sandboxing and monitoring of current systems.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Gary Marcus Recommendation or value judgment
“What we actually need right now is increased reliability, better cybersecurity, and genuine enforcement, perhaps extending to product recalls and even prosecution of companies that repeatedly put dangerous products on the market.”
Our reading: AI governance should now focus on more reliability, better cybersecurity and real enforcement, possibly including product recalls and prosecution of repeat offenders.
No horizon
Source: Big news at the UN
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Rhetoric
“If LLMs were a toy, they’d be taken off the shelves. If LLMs were a drug, they would be banned.”
Our reading: If LLMs were a toy they would be taken off the shelves, and if they were a drug they would be banned.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Forecast
“There’s also the very reasonable question of what happens to SoftBank if OpenAI can’t go public, which is now a very real possibility.”
Our reading: It is now a very real possibility that OpenAI cannot go public, which raises the reasonable question of what happens to SoftBank in that case.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“There is no way a “slow down” actually gels with the overall narrative of AI’s rapacious growth.”
Our reading: A slowdown cannot coexist with the narrative of AI's rapid growth.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“the grim truth that we need to start arresting people for committing crimes, halting any and all training runs, and putting real safeguards on this technology”
Our reading: We need to arrest people for AI-enabled crimes, halt all training runs, and impose real safeguards because the labs are irresponsible.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Conditional forecast
“While this might have the short-term benefit of reducing costs (and maybe even, with the right amount of accounting shenanigans, eek out a razor-thin positive margin), it’s likely that Chinese open source developers would distill (as they have been) Western models, create a much cheaper and “good enough” model to compete, and their “lead” in a race where everybody loses money would deteriorate.”
Our reading: If AI labs paused training, Chinese open source developers would likely distill Western models into cheaper competitors and erode the labs' lead.
No horizon
Only if: if AI labs pause training
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“The fact that LLMs from both Anthropic and Meta have been involved in similar incidents is a sign that we need to arrest more people.”
Our reading: Because Anthropic and Meta LLMs were involved in similar hacking incidents, more people need to be arrested.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“In my opinion, there is no further reason to invest in this industry, nor has there been for the vast majority of its existence.”
Our reading: In his opinion, there is no further reason to invest in the AI industry, nor has there been for the vast majority of its existence.
No horizon
Qualifier: in my opinion
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“I agree that we need to take “AI safety” seriously, but that starts with treating LLMs as normal software run in a reckless and dangerous manner by malevolent entities with little regard for society.”
Our reading: Taking AI safety seriously should start with treating LLMs as normal software run recklessly by malevolent entities.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“The reason they are training these models, as I got into in my podcast Better Offline with Cal Newport, is that there’s a mountain of potential different kinds of exploit and vulnerability data online that you can cram into these models now that they’re hitting the diminishing returns on coding.”
Our reading: AI labs train cybersecurity models because they are hitting diminishing returns on coding and there is abundant exploit data online.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Recommendation or value judgment
“The fact that Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta are both training and allowing cybersecurity models to connect to their vast amounts of GPU infrastructure is irresponsible and should not be legal.”
Our reading: Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta training cybersecurity models connected to vast GPU infrastructure is irresponsible and should not be legal.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Observation
“This is a short note, but an important one: the terminology of “pacing the frontier” or “slowing down” implicitly buys into the narrative that the AI industry’s path is the correct one, and that the only problem is the speed it’s moving at.”
Our reading: The terminology of 'pacing the frontier' or 'slowing down' implicitly buys into the narrative that the AI industry's path is correct and that the only problem is the speed it is moving at.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“This is a terrible deal, its results suck, and the amount of attention it’s gotten is a direct result of the media’s inability to speak truth to power or do anything other than repeat what they say and a financial bubble driven by LLMs’ unbelievable infrastructural cost.”
Our reading: The half-trillion-dollar spend on LLMs is a terrible deal with results that suck, and the attention it has received is a direct result of the media's inability to speak truth to power and of a financial bubble driven by LLMs' unbelievable infrastructure costs.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Ed Zitron Causal claim
“Every success that LLMs have had is a direct result of throwing at least half a trillion dollars in infrastructure and compute spend at problems that had vast amounts of data that could be trained against. Half a trillion dollars should have bought us a lot more than this.”
Our reading: LLM successes came from spending at least $500 billion on data-rich problems, and that spend should have bought much more.
No horizon
Source: AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands