Claims that can’t be checked by Gary Marcus, page 11 of 24
Deadlines are judged as of 2026-10-29. About Gary Marcus and the sources covered.
Claims that can’t be checked by Gary Marcus (2353)
Public evidence cannot settle these claims, so they are recorded and attributed, not scored. Most were screened out: both AI providers read the claim on its own and found it a value judgment, rhetoric, hedged, too vague to test, or about something no public evidence could show. The rest were found to be recommendations or too open to test in a full review.
Page 11 of 24: claims 1001 to 1100 of 2353, ordered by the date first said, newest first. To find a claim by its words, use search.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And, importantly, the reverse of what Mollick said is also true: we have to consider the scenario that the proposition that AGI is imminent is false.”
Our reading: We have to consider the scenario in which the proposition that AGI is imminent is false.
No horizon
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Automatically generated bullshit still seems to be the norm.”
Our reading: Automatically generated bullshit still seems to be the norm, including in systems like Deep Research and Grok 3 Deep Search.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I am not convinced that anything anyone could realistically do with LLMs won’t be almost immediately copied, as has been the recent trend.”
Our reading: Marcus is not convinced that anything anyone could realistically do with LLMs won't be copied almost immediately, as has been the recent trend.
No horizon
Qualifier: not convinced
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I couldn’t help but think that the US’s single-minded commitment to Large Language Models, predicated on implausible assumptions about AGI’s imminence, particularly combined with the untimely gutting of its scientific institutions, could ultimately lead to its undoing.”
Our reading: The US's single-minded commitment to LLMs, based on implausible assumptions about AGI's imminence and particularly when combined with the untimely gutting of its scientific institutions, could ultimately lead to the US's undoing.
No horizon
Qualifier: particularly combined with the untimely gutting of its scientific institutions
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If LLMs are the wrong path to AGI, as I and a great many academics think, we may have a lot of thinking to do. We may be massively wasting resources, and getting locked into a lot foolish battles around the wrong technology.”
Our reading: If LLMs are the wrong path to AGI, as Marcus and a great many academics think, we may have a lot of thinking to do and may be massively wasting resources and getting locked into foolish battles around the wrong technology.
No horizon
Only if: if LLMs are the wrong path to AGI
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In a time when Trump is dismantling American research infrastructure, it should have been front and center.”
Our reading: Research should have been front and center in the Klein–Buchanan episode, at a time when Trump is dismantling American research infrastructure.
No horizon
Qualifier: in a time when Trump is dismantling American research infrastructure
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“If getting to AGI in the next three years is not quite as certain as the sun rising every day from the east, we might want to hedge our bets, and try to focus on what the field of AI need to develop besides scaling.”
Our reading: If getting to AGI in the next three years is not quite certain, we might want to hedge our bets and try to focus on what the field of AI needs to develop besides scaling.
No horizon
Only if: if getting to AGI in the next three years is not quite as certain as the sun rising
Source: Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“With people like Roose hyping automated coding, we may well find ourselves with too few coders.”
Our reading: Hype about automated coding may well leave society with too few coders.
No horizon
Qualifier: given hype about automated coding
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Anyone can download the code, and probably most or all of the AI systems were trained on this and other similar examples.”
Our reading: Most or all AI coding systems were probably trained on existing fridge-photo recipe code such as Deep-food.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This will leave the US flat-foooted.”
Our reading: People increasingly discouraging American children from learning to code, out of naive enthusiasm about AI, will leave the US flat-footed.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“None of this may matter much in a lunch-recipe recommender, but errors in an automatic email writing system could cause serious harm.”
Our reading: Errors in AI-generated code for something like an automatic email writing system could cause serious harm.
No horizon
Qualifier: in an automatic email writing system
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In the end, this essay, like a lot of Roose’s pieces, comes off as marketing for AI companies, even though it is framed as reporting. The Times owes its readers better.”
Our reading: Roose's essay, like a lot of his pieces, comes off as marketing for AI companies even though it is framed as reporting, and the Times owes its readers better.
No horizon
Scope: like a lot of Roose's pieces
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“By hyping the tech largely uncritically, the Rooses and Newtons of the world make the tech oligarchy stronger; society inevitably has to bear the costs.”
Our reading: Uncritical AI hype by journalists strengthens the tech oligarchy, and society bears the costs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Errors in the code of automatic code writing systems will likely persist for decades, especially when they are forced to construct genuinely novel systems.”
Our reading: Errors in code from automatic code-writing systems will likely persist for decades, especially for genuinely novel systems.
No horizon
Qualifier: especially for genuinely novel systems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Altman’s credibility has diminished.”
Our reading: Sam Altman's credibility has declined.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Altman was the right CEO to launch ChatGPT, but he may not have the intellectual vision to get them to the next level.”
Our reading: Altman may lack the intellectual vision to take OpenAI to the next level.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“GPT 4.5, vibes and all, are the best Altman’s got. He was bluffing the whole time.”
Our reading: GPT-4.5 is the best Altman has got, and Altman was bluffing the whole time.
No horizon
Scope: the whole time
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI is likely still losing money on every prompt.”
Our reading: OpenAI is probably still losing money on every prompt.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This was OpenAI’s best shot, post DeepSeek, to show that they are still the king.Instead, they swung and missed.”
Our reading: GPT-4.5 was OpenAI's best attempt after DeepSeek to show it still leads, and it failed.
No horizon
Qualifier: post DeepSeek
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In short, potential investors should be asking hard questions, both about Sam, as a technical manager, and about the company’s ability to deliver.”
Our reading: Potential investors should question Altman's technical management and OpenAI's ability to deliver.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“GPT 4.5 appears to be the system that was supposed to be GPT-5, relabeled in order to manage expectations downwards.”
Our reading: GPT-4.5 appears to be the system intended as GPT-5, renamed to lower expectations.
No horizon
Qualifier: appears
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“When he told us “We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it”, he was obviously fibbing.”
Our reading: Altman was obviously fibbing when he said 'We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it'.
No horizon
Qualifier: obviously
Source: OpenAI, in deep trouble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“All the bullshit about GPT-5 we listened to for the last couple years: not so true.”
Our reading: The hype about GPT-5 over the past couple of years has not proven true.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Scaling data and compute is not a physical law, and pretty much everything I have told you was true.”
Our reading: Scaling data and compute is not a physical law, and pretty much everything Marcus has told his readers was true.
No horizon
Qualifier: pretty much
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Grok 3 didn’t fundamentally change things, and GPT 4.5 – which was probably supposed to be GPT 5 – didn’t either.”
Our reading: Neither Grok 3 nor GPT-4.5 (probably originally intended as GPT-5) fundamentally changed the state of AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“What I said almost a year ago still holds true, especially when coupled with the equally underwhelming performance of the similarly massive Grok 3:”
Our reading: Marcus's 2024 predictions still hold, supported by Grok 3's underwhelming performance despite its massive scale.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“But minor variations seems to be all that is emerging, despite the enormous investments.”
Our reading: Despite enormous investments, recent AI releases appear to be only minor variations on earlier ones.
No horizon
Qualifier: despite enormous investments
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Right now, the math for profitability doesn’t work, influence on productivity of GenAI has been minimal, and prospects for pure scaling aren’t looking great.”
Our reading: Prospects for pure scaling of AI are not looking great.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Investors should also be looking at the prospects for “solving” AI with pure scaling, which is after all much of the vision Nvidia is selling.”
Our reading: Investors should weigh the prospects for solving AI through pure scaling, which underpins Nvidia's pitch.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“But IMHO people investing their money in Nvidia shouldn’t be looking just at quarterly reports (which might be good, since people continue to buy their gold rush shovels in bulk—for now).”
Our reading: Nvidia investors should not look only at quarterly reports.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“GPT 4.5 is unlikely to revolutionize AI”
Our reading: GPT 4.5 is unlikely to revolutionize AI.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In reality GPT 4.5 is unlikely to meet high expectations, per The Information:”
Our reading: GPT 4.5 is unlikely to meet high expectations.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“All this looks to be true for GPT 4.5 as well.”
Our reading: GPT 4.5 likely shows mixed results, with reasoning and hallucination problems unresolved and gains in only some domains.
No horizon
Source: GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“He has done so much harm in recent weeks, though, ranging from violent cuts on science research to, in a deeply Orwellian move, preparing to feed massive amounts of private information into unreliable generative AI for the purposes of making employment decisions that I no longer find him remotely reasonable.”
Our reading: In recent weeks Musk has done so much harm, including violent cuts to science research and preparations to feed massive amounts of private information into unreliable generative AI to make employment decisions (a deeply Orwellian move), that Marcus no longer finds him remotely reasonable.
No horizon
Scope: in recent weeks
Source: Elon Musk's inability to listen to others is torching almost everything he touches
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Success Theater”
Our reading: Generative AI's apparent success amounts to 'success theater' rather than real success.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“But today’s date should never be multiple guess.”
Our reading: An AI system like Grok 3 should give today's date consistently, not different answers on different tries.
No horizon
Source: Grok 3 Beta in Shambles
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“No game changers; no major leap forward, here.”
Our reading: Grok 3 is neither a game changer nor a major leap forward.
No horizon
Source: Grok 3 Hot Take
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“[Update 1: probably not, per an OpenAI employee who posted some previously unreleased o3 data that appeared show o3 beating Grok3 on two benchmarks]”
Our reading: Grok 3 is probably not smarter than the full, unreleased version of OpenAI's o3.
No horizon
Qualifier: compared with the full unreleased version of o3
Source: Grok 3 Hot Take
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I didn’t notice anything truly original.”
Our reading: Marcus did not notice anything truly original in the Grok 3 demo.
No horizon
Qualifier: I didn't notice
Source: Grok 3 Hot Take
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Sam Altman can breathe easy for now.”
Our reading: For now, Grok 3 gives Sam Altman (OpenAI) little reason to worry.
No horizon
Qualifier: for now
Source: Grok 3 Hot Take
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“There is no question that this is a very impressive accomplishment.”
Our reading: AlphaGeometry2 solving 42 of 50 IMO geometry problems is, without question, a very impressive accomplishment.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“We see no reason at all to call it “superhuman”.”
Our reading: The authors see no reason at all to call AlphaGeometry2's solutions 'superhuman'.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Still, an important takeaway is a familiar one about benchmarks: they are often narrowly constructed, and one shouldn’t overgeneralize a strong result on a benchmark for a full conceptual understanding of a problem.”
Our reading: Benchmarks are often narrow, and strong benchmark results should not be taken as full conceptual understanding.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“This seems too strong to us, because the system is actually sidestepping a critical part of IMO challenges: understanding the English statement of the problems; by preconverting each problem into formal notation, there is a sense in which DeepMind has given their system an unfair start, and not grappled with something essential.”
Our reading: DeepMind's 'gold-medalist performance' claim seems too strong to the authors, because preconverting each problem into formal notation means the system sidesteps understanding the English problem statements, which in a sense gives it an unfair start.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems too strong to us
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It is disappointing that a top research team confused success on a prestigious competition with mastery of a foundational subject matter, and tiresome to see the media overhype things as ever.”
Our reading: It is disappointing that a top research team confused success on a prestigious competition with mastery of a foundational subject, and tiresome that the media overhype things as ever.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“We have always felt that greater modularity will be a necessary part of future AI, and welcome these kinds of explorations.”
Our reading: Greater modularity will be a necessary part of future AI.
No horizon
Source: AlphaGeometry2: Impressive accomplishment, but still a long path ahead
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“This is not where we should be as a nation.”
Our reading: The US should not be deploying biased, unreliable AI in government under Musk's influence.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The problem here, by the way, isn’t just the blatant propaganda, but the more subtle stuff, that people may not even notice.”
Our reading: The problem with Grok is not just its blatant propaganda but also more subtle content that people may not even notice.
No horizon
Qualifier: people may not even notice
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This isn’t free speech. It’s a massive, massive thumb on the scale, from one of the most powerful yet unelected people in the world.”
Our reading: Grok's biased outputs are not free speech but a massive manipulation of public opinion by Musk.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Everyone—and not just The Information—should be genuinely terrified that the richest man in the world has built a Large Language Model that spouts propaganda in his image.”
Our reading: Everyone, not just The Information, should be genuinely terrified that the richest man in the world (Elon Musk) has built a large language model that spouts propaganda in his image.
No horizon
Scope: everyone, not just The Information
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“If Altman knew how to build AGI, he would build it. Instead, he rechristened Orion as GPT 4.5 rather than 5, which likely means that despite major bills, Orion never met the expectations so-called scaling laws had implied.”
Our reading: Altman does not know how to build AGI, and Orion likely never met the expectations implied by scaling laws despite major costs.
No horizon
Source: Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“All this time, it turns out, Altman was bluffing.”
Our reading: Sam Altman's comments implying progress toward AGI were a bluff.
No horizon
Source: Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Neurosymbolic AI, which I have long championed, may turn out to be part of the mix.”
Our reading: Neurosymbolic AI may be part of the eventual route to AGI.
No horizon
Source: Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If they called Orion GPT-5, reactions would likely converge for many on “is that all there is?”. OpenAI’s mystique might well take a serious hit.”
Our reading: If OpenAI called Orion GPT-5, many would likely react with disappointment and OpenAI's mystique might take a serious hit.
No horizon
Only if: if Orion were called GPT-5
Source: Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The company’s future rests on them doing something truly revolutionary, and Orion turns out not to be that.”
Our reading: OpenAI's future depends on something revolutionary, and Orion is not revolutionary.
No horizon
Source: Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In all likelihood AGI will some day arrive, with or without LLMs at the core, and likely with all kinds of other gadgets included.”
Our reading: AGI will likely arrive some day, likely incorporating many components beyond LLMs.
No horizon
Qualifier: with or without LLMs at the core
Source: Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Scaling is useful, but it is not now and never was the whole answer.”
Our reading: Scaling is useful but is not, and never was, sufficient on its own to reach AGI.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The case cites no evidence items, so this record does not establish whether AGI has been reached or how.
Source: Breaking: OpenAI's efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“By turning down Musk’s bid, Altman makes it hard to justify paying the nonprofit anything less than the $97B that was just offered.”
Our reading: As his best guess about the subtext, with no promises that he is right, Marcus says that by turning down Musk's bid, Altman makes it hard to justify paying OpenAI's nonprofit anything less than the $97B just offered.
No horizon
Only if: Altman turned down Musk's bid
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Altman desperately needs to ditch the OpenAI nonprofit. It’s become an albatross around his neck.”
Our reading: Sam Altman urgently needs to get rid of OpenAI's nonprofit control structure, which has become a burden to him.
No horizon
Qualifier: offered as best guess about subtext
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“All of this has the effect of potentially slowing down Musk’s competitor Altman, who can ill afford an extra $50B+ outlay given his current cash flow situation.”
Our reading: Musk's bid may slow down Altman/OpenAI, which can ill afford an extra $50B+ outlay given its cash flow.
No horizon
Qualifier: given current cash flow situation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Roughly speaking, this means that (at little real cost, since the bid was never going to be accepted) Musk has more than doubled the cost of OpenAI for-profit’s freedom.”
Our reading: As his best guess, roughly speaking, Marcus says Musk has more than doubled the cost of the OpenAI for-profit's freedom from the nonprofit, at little real cost to himself, since the bid was never going to be accepted.
No horizon
Qualifier: roughly speaking
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If AI has significant negative externalities upon the world, we the citizens are screwed.”
Our reading: If AI has significant negative externalities upon the world, we the citizens are screwed.
No horizon
Only if: if AI has significant negative externalities upon the world
Source: Everything I warned about in Taming Silicon Valley is rapidly becoming our reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“He’s absolutely right, we should worry about authoritarian uses of AI.”
Our reading: We should worry about authoritarian uses of AI.
No horizon
Source: Everything I warned about in Taming Silicon Valley is rapidly becoming our reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Right now, it isn’t.”
Our reading: At present, AI is not working for the public.
No horizon
Source: Everything I warned about in Taming Silicon Valley is rapidly becoming our reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Unless we speak up very, very loudly, it won’t.”
Our reading: Unless citizens speak up very loudly, AI will not come to work for the public.
No horizon
Only if: unless citizens speak up very loudly
Source: Everything I warned about in Taming Silicon Valley is rapidly becoming our reality
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Regulatory capture seemed huge:”
Our reading: Amid the complaints about the Paris AI Summit's leaked draft statement, regulatory capture seemed huge.
No horizon
Qualifier: seemed
Source: Paris AI Summit Train Wreck
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“It would accomplish little, and let too many people off the hook, allowing them to say that they had addressed AI risks without actually doing all that much.”
Our reading: If the draft Paris AI Summit statement were signed, it would accomplish little and would let too many people off the hook, allowing them to say they had addressed AI risks without actually doing all that much.
No horizon
Only if: if the draft statement is signed
Source: Paris AI Summit Train Wreck
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Considering all the big names that were assembled, this all feels like a wasted opportunity.”
Our reading: Considering all the big names assembled, the Paris AI Summit feels like a wasted opportunity.
No horizon
Scope: considering all the big names that were assembled
Source: Paris AI Summit Train Wreck
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I tend to agree with those that feel that the draft should not be signed.”
Our reading: Marcus leans toward the view that the Paris AI Summit draft statement should not be signed.
No horizon
Source: Paris AI Summit Train Wreck
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“People have been adding data and compute left and right since August 2022 when OpenAI demo’d GPT-4 to Bill Gates, but despite literally hundreds of billions of investment, pure LLM scaling has not produced the fruit some people imagined.”
Our reading: Despite hundreds of billions invested since August 2022, pure LLM scaling has not delivered what some expected.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This is not a finding that scaling met expectations or that the investment amount was false.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Another of the key suggestions I made in 2022 was that we should use neurosymbolic techniques, combining neural networks with classical symbolic techniques such as rules.”
Our reading: AI should combine neural networks with classical symbolic techniques such as rules.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We got one more huge advance since the 2022 paper (I was agnostic then as to how many more leaps there would be), but we still don’t have a system that would really merit the name of GPT-5.”
Our reading: Since 2022 there has been one more huge advance but no system that merits the name GPT-5.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“So much for exponential progress.”
Our reading: Google repeating the same kind of LLM error two years apart mocks claims of exponential progress in AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: sarcastic remark
Source: Shame on Google, twice
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Let that be a lesson to all AI developers. What’s been released cannot be unreleased.”
Our reading: What has been released cannot be unreleased, and AI developers should take that as a lesson.
No horizon
Scope: all AI developers
Source: Irony too funny for words
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“That news confirms something I have long feared; no matter how much you must trust a company or its management, things can eventually change.”
Our reading: The news of Google's change confirms Marcus's long-held fear that, no matter how much you must trust a company or its management, things can eventually change.
No horizon
Scope: any company or its management, regardless of how much it is trusted
Source: Google, 2001: Don’t Be Evil
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“(In fairness, ChatGPT doesn’t really lie; it just spews text that often bears little resemblance to reality, but you get my drift).”
Our reading: ChatGPT does not truly lie, but it often produces text that bears little resemblance to reality.
No horizon
Source: ChatGPT in Shambles
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“As against all the constant claims of exponential progress that I see practically every day, ChatGPT still seems likes pretty much the same mix of brilliance and stupidity that I wrote about, more than two years ago:”
Our reading: Despite constant claims of exponential progress, ChatGPT still seems like pretty much the same mix of brilliance and stupidity that Marcus wrote about more than two years earlier.
No horizon
Qualifier: still seems like
Source: ChatGPT in Shambles
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“But it is not just s scammers; the larger problem may be naive people who believe that the outputs are legit, or who use it as a shortcut for writing journal articles, missing the errors it produces.”
Our reading: The larger problem with Deep Research may be naive people who trust its outputs or use it to write journal articles, missing its errors.
No horizon
Source: Deep Research, Deep Bullshit, and the potential (model) collapse of science
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Amodei is correct that DeepSeek didn't do anything in terms of cost reductions that wouldn't have happened here before too long, anyway.”
Our reading: DeepSeek's cost reductions were ones US labs would have achieved before long anyway.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“We should be thinking about how to sponsor innovation, and recognize that the best funded companies aren't always the most innovative. Going all in on them is a mistake.”
Our reading: We should be thinking about how to sponsor innovation and recognize that the best-funded companies aren't always the most innovative, and going all in on them is a mistake.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“The country that does its best to develop a new tech that is more reliable and more difficult to replicate will win.”
Our reading: The country that does its best to develop new AI technology that is more reliable and harder to replicate than LLMs will win the race.
No horizon
Only if: does its best to develop a new tech that is more reliable and harder to replicate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“(Still embarrassing to the US giants though that a leaner, hungrier startup abroad got there first.)”
Our reading: It is still embarrassing to the US AI giants that a leaner, hungrier startup abroad (DeepSeek) got there first on cost reductions.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Amodei's biggest advantage is having more chips, and I understand him wanting to prosecute that advantage, but what we really need are better ideas, and the oxygen for innovative startups to breathe.”
Our reading: Anthropic's main advantage is having more chips, but AI progress really needs better ideas and room for innovative startups.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“My takeaway is different: the LLM race is an enormously expensive effort to win a race that can no longer be won.”
Our reading: The LLM race is enormously expensive and can no longer be won by any country.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“DeepSeek definitely has him rattled. The piece is a long and articulate, but also quite defensive.”
Our reading: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is rattled by DeepSeek, and his essay is defensive.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This seems plausible. DeepSeek may well have broken OpenAI’s Terms of Service and distilled1 their intellectual property without permission.”
Our reading: It is plausible that DeepSeek broke OpenAI's Terms of Service by distilling OpenAI's models without permission.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Cries Foul
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Karma is a bitch.”
Our reading: OpenAI being copied by DeepSeek is karmic payback for its own use of others' IP.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Cries Foul
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI may well have done analogous things to YouTube, New York Times, and countless artists and writers.”
Our reading: OpenAI may well have used content from YouTube, the New York Times, and many artists and writers without permission, much as DeepSeek allegedly did to OpenAI.
No horizon
Source: OpenAI Cries Foul
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“DeepSeek is an economic revolution, and geopolitical wake-up call, but that doesn't directly bring us any closer to AGI.”
Our reading: DeepSeek is an economic revolution and a geopolitical wake-up call.
No horizon
Source: Five things most people don't seem to understand about DeepSeek
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Furthermore, unlike some companies I could name, DeepSeek is actually, well, Open, which may help them lure talent from more walled off operations..”
Our reading: Because DeepSeek is actually open, unlike some other companies, its openness may help it lure talent from more walled-off operations.
No horizon
Qualifier: because DeepSeek is actually open
Source: Five things most people don't seem to understand about DeepSeek
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“GenAI economics could get wild.”
Our reading: The economics of generative AI could get wild.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Putting so many eggs in Altman’s basket, as the White House did last week and others have before, may also prove to be a mistake in hindsight.”
Our reading: The White House's heavy reliance on Altman may prove a mistake in hindsight.
No horizon
Source: The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“One that deserves Congressional investigation was Meta's decision to open source their LLMs.”
Our reading: Congress should investigate how Meta's open-sourcing of its LLMs helped China catch up.
No horizon
Source: The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“(Trump’s boosting of Stargate seemingly fits with the same magical thinking in LLMs, premised on the same hope of achieving a supremacy that may never come).”
Our reading: Trump's boosting of Stargate seemingly fits with the same magical thinking about LLMs, premised on the hope of achieving a supremacy that may never come.
No horizon
Qualifier: seemingly
Source: The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Altman may be a master salesman, but Musk is correct that the US should not be so reliant on him and should not have given him such an eminent seal of approval based on so little.”
Our reading: Marcus agrees with Musk that the US should not be so reliant on Altman and should not have given him such an eminent seal of approval based on so little.
No horizon
Qualifier: based on so little
Source: The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I have said it before, and I will say it again—OpenAI may well become the WeWork of AI.”
Our reading: OpenAI may well become the WeWork of AI.
No horizon
Source: The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The race to AGI will be won not by the country with the most chips but by the one that best fosters true innovation.”
Our reading: The country that best fosters true innovation, not the one with the most chips, will win the race to AGI.
No horizon
Source: The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Others may catch up, too, because LLMs just got a lot cheaper, and consequently the requirement for vast arrays of special purpose hardware has somewhat diminished.”
Our reading: Because LLMs got much cheaper and need less special hardware, other players may catch up.
No horizon
Source: The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If all this is true, the CHIPS Act, which was designed to slow China in the AI race, may turn out to be one of the worst backfires in history.”
Our reading: If all this is true, the CHIPS Act, which was designed to slow China in the AI race, may turn out to be one of the worst backfires in history.
No horizon
Only if: if all this is true
Source: The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If the race to LLMs continues to be unregulated in the US, and LLMs remain detached from reality, rushed development cycles and intense global competition might well exacerbate risks of misinformation, biased outputs, privacy breaches, and misuse by malicious actors.”
Our reading: If the LLM race stays unregulated in the US and LLMs remain detached from reality, rushed development cycles and intense global competition might well worsen the risks of misinformation, biased outputs, privacy breaches and misuse by malicious actors.
No horizon
Only if: the race to LLMs continues to be unregulated in the US
Source: The race for "AI Supremacy" is over — at least for now.