“In the end, I bet Stargate Abilene never gets built, but if it does, I’d be shocked if it’s done before the middle of 2027, which would mean it takes about 3 years per Gigawatt of power, or about a year per 293MW of IT load.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Zitron bets that Stargate Abilene never gets built.
Assessment: Unresolved No deadline stated on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Ed Zitron wrote it
Where's Your Ed At, Why Are We Still Doing This?, paragraph 122.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment wyea-why-are-we-still-doing-this-aaaf6f-a1
We recorded 33 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2026-03-17. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No deadline stated
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No deadline stated (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- I bet (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- I bet Stargate Abilene never gets built
- 1.2GW
Our interpretation
- The surrounding discussion makes this a prediction about completing and energizing the full original 1.2 GW campus, rather than beginning construction or operating its first buildings.
- Exclude separately proposed expansions and the adjacent Microsoft campus.
- “I bet” expresses a forecast, not an external condition.
Counts as supported if: Documented permanent abandonment of the full original campus, with irreversible disposition of its unfinished facilities, would support the forecast.
Counts as contradicted if: Documented completion and energization of the full original 1.2 GW campus would contradict it.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Unresolved
The record was checked, and the evidence available by the cutoff does not settle it.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No deadline stated
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Oracle described Abilene as close to completion on the evaluation date. That is material progress, but it does not meet the full-campus completion test. Neither completion nor irreversible abandonment was established. An indefinite prediction cannot be supported merely because construction remains unfinished.
Limitations
- The latest status is a management statement reproduced by a transcript provider.
- Operational readiness and structural completion are different milestones.
Evidence (1 item)
Context only: Oracle management; transcript supplied by Quartr through Stock Analysis,
One of those sites is close to fully executed, Abilene.
Why it matters here: Management described Abilene as approaching completion. This weighs against an assumption of abandonment but does not establish full completion and energization.
- Publisher
- Oracle management; transcript supplied by Quartr through Stock Analysis
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
Dated records showing the entire original 1.2 GW campus completed and energized, or an irreversible abandonment event meeting the stated rule.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Where's Your Ed At, Why Are We Still Doing This?
In the end, I bet Stargate Abilene never gets built, but if it does, I’d be shocked if it’s done before the middle of 2027, which would mean it takes about 3 years per Gigawatt of power, or about a year per 293MW of IT load.
- Where
- paragraph 122
- Published
- 2026-03-17
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment wyea-why-are-we-still-doing-this-aaaf6f-a1: Current. Outcome: Unresolved. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment wyea-why-are-we-still-doing-this-aaaf6f-a1.