“Microsoft said a year later that Github Copilot had 1.8 million paid customers, which is pretty good, except like all generative AI products, it loses money.”
Our reading:
GitHub Copilot, like all generative AI products, loses money despite 1.8 million paid customers.
Assessment: Unresolved
What happened
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Unresolved
We checked, and the evidence so far doesn’t settle it.
Judged on a plain reading. They named no measure, so we used the reading a typical informed reader would take. It is spelled out under “How we judged it”.
Evidence up to . Checked .
Why
The claim says GitHub Copilot was losing money around the time it had about 1.8 million paid users. The contract sets the period as October 2024 to February 2025. The speaker relies on a Wall Street Journal report from October 2023. That report cited an anonymous source and said GitHub lost up to $80 per user per month earlier in 2023. GitHub denied those figures (e2). In November 2023, GitHub's CEO said the cost to run Copilot per user was lower than the price. He also described the product's margins as 'growing positive' (e1). Both sources are from 2023, before the target period, and they conflict. Neither cited item reports Copilot's revenue against its costs for October 2024 to February 2025. So the evidence in the case cannot confirm or refute the claim for that period.
Caveats
- No evidence item covers Copilot's revenue or costs for October 2024 to February 2025.
- The evidence includes no Microsoft or GitHub breakdown of Copilot revenue or costs.
- The CEO's margin claim (e1) is an unaudited company statement and covers per-user running costs, not fully loaded profit or loss.
- The WSJ loss figures (e2) rest on one anonymous source, were denied by the company, and concern early 2023.
Evidence (2 items)
Context only: Semafor,
“The cost of goods sold, which is all the costs to run Copilot per user, is lower than the price that we’re charging,” he said.
Why it matters: GitHub's CEO said per-user running costs were below the price as of November 2023. This contradicts the speaker's premise but predates the target period and is an unaudited company claim.
- Where
- paragraph 4
- Publisher
- Semafor
- Kind of source
- News report
- About events on
- Published
Context only: Semafor,
Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that it “has been a money loser because it is so expensive to run,” citing an anonymous source.
Why it matters: Records the anonymously sourced WSJ loss report that the speaker relies on. It concerns early 2023, not the target period.
- Publisher
- Semafor
- Kind of source
- News report
- About events on
- Published
How we judged it
- Kind of claim
- Observation
- Deadline
- None given. We don’t add one.
Where we had to interpret
- Plain reading: around the time GitHub Copilot had about 1.8 million paid subscribers (late 2024) and up to the post, the product's costs exceeded its revenue. That is, it was loss-making on a product basis, including on paying users.
- The 1.8 million figure is background, not the claim being tested.
- Target period: October 2024 to February 2025, from the 1.8 million figure 'a year later' than October 2023 up to the post. The claim is in the present tense with no period named.
Right if: Credible reporting or disclosure that GitHub Copilot's costs (serving costs, at least) exceeded its revenue during October 2024 to February 2025.
Wrong if: Credible reporting or disclosure that GitHub Copilot had positive margins (revenue above serving costs) during October 2024 to February 2025.
We wrote this test after the outcome was known.
What would settle it
A Microsoft or GitHub disclosure, or credible reporting, of GitHub Copilot's revenue against its serving or operating costs for October 2024 to February 2025.
We found 49 claims in this post. See them all.
Full record
Source and dates
Where's Your Ed At, There Is No AI Revolution, paragraph 155.
- Said
- We read the source
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence up to
- Checked
We read this wording on 2026-10-28. The post may have been edited after 2025-02-24.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the posts we read.
: Where's Your Ed At, There Is No AI Revolution
Microsoft said a year later that Github Copilot had 1.8 million paid customers, which is pretty good, except like all generative AI products, it loses money.
- Where
- paragraph 155
- Published
- 2025-02-24
- We read it
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Versions
- Current: Unresolved. Evidence up to 2026-10-28.
What happened to this record
PublishedBy us
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.