“As I discussed a few months ago, despite vast amounts of capital expenditures, hyperscaler depreciation — by which I mean when you spread out the cost of GPUs over 6 years starting from when they enter service — also suggests that the vast majority of capex is yet to be put in service.”
Our reading:
Hyperscaler depreciation suggests the vast majority of their capex has not yet been put into service.
Assessment: Can’t be checked
What happened
Not graded on evidence
Outcome: Can’t be checked
An opinion, a recommendation, or too vague to test. Listed, not scored.
Evidence up to . Checked .
Why
He says depreciation 'suggests' most capex is not yet in service. That is his reading of a ratio, not a firm factual claim. He gives no spending period, no list of companies, and no measure of 'in service'. Turning this into a pass/fail test would mean picking a capex cohort and a deployment measure for him and removing his hedge. That would score words he did not commit to, so the claim is not graded.
Caveats
- A narrower factual version could be checked against filings (for example, construction-in-progress compared with recent capex), but that would be a different claim from the one he made.
Evidence (0 items)
Claims like this aren’t scored, so there is no evidence to show.
How we judged it
- Kind of claim
- Observation
- Deadline
- None given. We don’t add one.
Where we had to interpret
- The claim says what depreciation trends 'suggest'. It is his reading of a ratio (D&A as a share of capex), not a firm factual statement.
- He names no spending period (no cohort of capex), no company-by-company scope, and no in-service measure. Testing whether 'the vast majority' of capex is out of service would mean supplying a cohort and a measure he did not give, and dropping his hedge.
- So it is treated as not adjudicable.
We don’t grade claims like this. We only check the quote and who said it.
What would settle it
A firm statement from him naming the companies, the capex period, and the measure of 'in service', which could then be checked against 10-K property and equipment notes.
We found 53 claims in this post. See them all.
Full record
Source and dates
Where's Your Ed At, Where're All The AI Chips?, paragraph 108.
- Said
- We read the source
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence up to
- Checked
We read this wording on 2026-10-28. The post may have been edited after 2026-09-22.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the posts we read.
: Where's Your Ed At, Where're All The AI Chips?
As I discussed a few months ago, despite vast amounts of capital expenditures, hyperscaler depreciation — by which I mean when you spread out the cost of GPUs over 6 years starting from when they enter service — also suggests that the vast majority of capex is yet to be put in service.
- Where
- paragraph 108
- Published
- 2026-09-22
- We read it
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Versions
- Current: Can’t be checked. Evidence up to 2026-10-28.
What happened to this record
PublishedBy us
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
Held backBy us
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.