“This means that OpenAI’s revenue represents 69% of Microsoft’s year-over-year cloud growth for calendar year 2025, and without it, Intelligent Cloud would’ve only grown 8% year-over-year.”
Our reading:
OpenAI spending accounted for 69% of Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud growth in 2025; without it growth would have been 8%.
Assessment: Unresolved
What happened
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Unresolved
We checked, and the evidence so far doesn’t settle it.
Judged on a plain reading. They named no measure, so we used the reading a typical informed reader would take. It is spelled out under “How we judged it”.
Evidence up to . Checked .
Why
The evidence does not verify the inputs needed for the claimed 69% and 8% under the post's one-year subtraction [e1, e2]. Microsoft reports 29% Intelligent Cloud growth for October–December 2025, which does not establish the full calendar-year comparison [e1]. SAVRN reports $17.2 billion in OpenAI payments to Microsoft during calendar 2025 across research, cost of revenue and other charges [e2]. It does not reconcile those payments to Microsoft's recognized Intelligent Cloud revenue [e2]. Neither item supplies comparable OpenAI-attributable revenue for 2024 and 2025 to establish its actual contribution to growth or growth excluding OpenAI from both years [e1, e2].
Caveats
- The cited Microsoft disclosure covers one quarter, not comparable calendar-year totals [e1].
- The payment summary does not independently establish recognized Microsoft segment revenue [e2].
- A one-year subtraction and a comparison excluding OpenAI from both years answer different questions; the latter lacks the necessary 2024 customer amount [e1, e2].
Evidence (2 items)
Context only: Microsoft,
Revenue increased $7.4 billion or 29%.
Why it matters: This measures Intelligent Cloud growth in the December quarter. It supplies segment context but cannot establish a calendar-year customer contribution.
- Publisher
- Microsoft
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding, unaudited
- Measures
- Microsoft Intelligent Cloud, Quarterly year-over-year segment revenue increase, USD billions and percent, company reported, 2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31
- About events on
- Published
Context only: SAVRN,
Payments to Microsoft span several cost lines.
Why it matters: The summary repeats a $17.2 billion calendar-2025 payment figure across several expense categories, citing Quartz. It does not establish how much Microsoft recognized as Intelligent Cloud revenue or the comparable 2024 amount.
- Publisher
- SAVRN
- Kind of source
- Secondary summary
- Measures
- OpenAI, Reported payments to Microsoft across research, cost of revenue and other expenses, USD billions, estimate, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31
- About events on
- Published
How we judged it
- Kind of claim
- Observation
- Deadline
- None given. We don’t add one.
Where we had to interpret
- The target is calendar 2025, compared with calendar 2024, using the Intelligent Cloud segment rather than the broader Microsoft Cloud measure.
- 'OpenAI’s revenue' means Microsoft revenue attributable to OpenAI, as indicated by the preceding Azure-spending discussion.
- The context supplies a one-year subtraction calculation: divide the stated OpenAI amount by the segment revenue increase, then subtract that amount from 2025 segment revenue while retaining the 2024 baseline.
- A claim about OpenAI's actual contribution to year-over-year growth instead requires its revenue contribution in both years. A comparison excluding OpenAI from the business requires excluding it from both years.
- The combined claim uses an estimate basis because the customer amount comes from the speaker's reporting on financial documents. The claimed audit does not establish Microsoft's revenue recognition.
Right if: Comparable calendar-year segment data and independently verified Microsoft revenue attributable to OpenAI reproduce the stated percentages, with the treatment of 2024 explicitly established. A one-year subtraction result must be distinguished from an actual customer contribution to growth.
Wrong if: Matching recognized-revenue records produce percentages that do not round to 69% and 8% under the established comparison, or show that the spending amount cannot be treated as the claimed Microsoft segment revenue.
We wrote this test after the outcome was known.
What would settle it
Verify comparable calendar-2024 and calendar-2025 Intelligent Cloud totals and reconcile OpenAI's 2025 payments to recognized segment revenue to test the stated one-year subtraction. Establish the comparable 2024 customer revenue separately to test actual contribution to growth and growth excluding OpenAI from both years.
We found 37 claims in this post. See them all.
Full record
Source and dates
Where's Your Ed At, The More You Buy, The More You Lose, paragraph 106.
- Said
- We read the source
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence up to
- Checked
We read this wording on 2026-10-28. The post may have been edited after 2026-07-28.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the posts we read.
: Where's Your Ed At, The More You Buy, The More You Lose
This means that OpenAI’s revenue represents 69% of Microsoft’s year-over-year cloud growth for calendar year 2025, and without it, Intelligent Cloud would’ve only grown 8% year-over-year.
- Where
- paragraph 106
- Published
- 2026-07-28
- We read it
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Versions
- Current: Unresolved. Evidence up to 2026-10-28.
What happened to this record
PublishedBy us
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
Held backBy us
The final check failed: our summary didn’t match their words.